1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, the price of soybean meal first rose and then fell. On the cost side, the USDA in August lowered the planting area of US soybeans. Although the yield per unit was raised, the output was still reduced. Meanwhile, the decrease in total demand was less than that in total supply, and the ending stocks were lowered, which was overall bullish for the market. The good rainfall in US soybean - growing areas supported a better pod - setting number this year. The net export sales of US soybeans were average, but China - US trade negotiations continued. With both bullish and bearish factors, US soybeans fluctuated and closed higher. In the domestic market, the recent sufficient arrival of soybeans led to a high operating rate of oil mills, resulting in a loose supply of soybean meal. The weak downstream replenishment also put pressure on the spot price. Both the soybeans and soybean meal of oil mills were in the inventory - building cycle, and the short - term inventory increased. [6] - Currently, the spot market of soybean meal has a loose supply - demand situation, while the futures market is dominated by China - US tariff negotiations. A large amount of imported soybeans will arrive in the third and fourth quarters, ensuring sufficient supply of soybean meal. However, due to the possible impact of China - US tariffs, there is an expectation of a supply - demand gap in the first quarter of next year. The expected reduction in US soybean output and strong crushing demand strengthen the expectation of rising import costs. As the new round of China - US negotiations did not mention the purchase of US soybeans, it is expected that soybean meal will be relatively strong in the short and medium term. In the long term, there is an expectation of an increase in the planting area of Brazilian soybeans, and the soybean procurement in the second quarter of next year is sufficient, so there is still pressure on soybean meal. [6] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - As of August 29th, the CBOT soybeans closed at 1053.00 cents per bushel, up 62.75 points from the opening, with a monthly increase of 6.34%. The M2601 soybean meal closed at 3055 yuan per ton, up 19 points from the opening, with a monthly increase of 0.63%. [12] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Cost - side: US Soybean Balance Sheet - The planting area of US soybeans was lowered by 2.5 million to 80.9 million acres. The yield per unit was raised by 1.1 to 53.6 bushels per acre. The output was reduced by 43 million to 4.292 billion bushels. The total supply was lowered by 63 million to 4.642 billion bushels. The export was lowered by 40 million to 1.705 billion bushels. The ending stocks were lowered by 20 million to 290 million bushels. [13][14] 3.2.2 Cost - side: US Soybean - growing Area Weather - In the next 15 days, the overall rainfall in US soybean - growing areas will be average, and the temperature will be low. [13] 3.2.3 Cost - side: US Soybean Growth - As of the week of August 24th, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 69%, higher than the market expectation of 67%. The pod - setting rate was 89%, and the defoliation rate was 4%. As of the week of August 26th, about 11% of the US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought. [21] 3.2.4 Cost - side: US Soybean Export Sales - As of the week of August 21st, the net export sales of US soybeans in the 2024/2025 season were - 189,000 tons, and in the 2025/2026 season were 1.373 million tons. The cumulative sales this year were 50.8687 million tons, accounting for 99.67% of the August USDA estimated exports. [25] 3.2.5 Cost - side: Brazilian Soybean Export and Premium - ANEC estimated that the soybean export volume of Brazil in August would be about 8.88 million tons, an increase of about 900,000 tons compared with the same period last year. Most of Brazilian soybeans have been sold, reducing the sales pressure. However, due to the strong US soybean futures, the premium of Brazilian soybeans has fallen from a high level. [29] 3.2.6 Domestic: Imported Soybean Arrival - In July 2025, China imported 11.666 million tons of soybeans, a decrease of 598,000 tons compared with June and an increase of 1.813 million tons (18.4%) compared with July 2024. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import of soybeans in China was 61.035 million tons, an increase of 2.7 million tons (4.63%) year - on - year. In the 34th week of 2025 (August 16th - August 22nd), the arrival of soybeans at domestic full - sample oil mills was about 2.1775 million tons. [34] 3.2.7 Domestic: Soybean Crushing Volume - In August 2025, the soybean crushing volume of national oil mills was 11.46 million tons, an increase of 2.29 million tons (25.01%) compared with the previous month and an increase of 1.3048 million tons (12.84%) compared with the same period last year. [37] 3.2.8 Domestic: Downstream Demand for Soybean Meal - In August, the trading volume of oil mills was 4.8503 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 206,000 tons, and the pick - up volume was 4.0054 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 313,500 tons. [39] 3.2.9 Domestic: Inventory of Soybeans and Soybean Meal in Oil Mills - In the 34th week of 2025, the soybean inventory of major national oil mills increased to 6.8253 million tons, an increase of 21,300 tons (0.31%) from the previous week and a decrease of 394,000 tons (5.46%) year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory increased to 1.0533 million tons, an increase of 38,600 tons (3.80%) from the previous week and a decrease of 445,300 tons (29.71%) year - on - year. The unfulfilled contracts decreased. [42] 3.3 Spread Tracking No detailed spread - tracking content analysis is provided in the given text, only the spread items such as the basis of soybean meal in Jiangsu, 01 oil - meal ratio, 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal, and 01 soybean - rapeseed meal spread are mentioned. [45][46][49][50]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-07-29 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 ✸大豆观点和策略 豆一A2509：4100至4200区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆震荡收跌，美豆产区天气整体良好压制盘面和技术性震荡整理，美豆千点关 口上方震荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内大豆震荡 收跌，美豆走势带动和技术性震荡整理，进口大豆到港增多和新季国产大豆增产预期压 制盘面，短期受中美关税谈判后续和进口大豆到港增多预期交互影响。中性。 2.基差：现货4300，基差147，升水期货。偏多 3.库存:油厂大豆库存642.24万吨，上周657.49万吨，环比增减少2.32%，去年同期611.2万 吨，同比增5.08%。偏空 4.盘面： ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal market is in a high - level oscillation due to a mix of bullish and bearish factors. The market focuses on the impact of US soybean planting weather and Sino - US trade tariff games [10][14]. - The soybean market is also in an oscillatory state, with the market concentrating on the impact of South American soybean harvesting weather and Sino - US trade tariff games [15]. - In the short term, US soybeans may oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance. Domestic soybean meal may return to an interval oscillation pattern [10][17]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Weekly Tips The content does not explicitly present weekly tips. 3.2 Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations are short - term bullish for US soybeans. The US soybean planting weather is still variable, and the US soybean market is oscillating strongly in the short term, expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark [13]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June. After May Day, the domestic soybean inventory increased from a low level, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills also increased [13]. - The profit of domestic pig farming has decreased, leading to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, but the tight supply supports the post - festival price expectation [13]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, and variable weather in US soybean - producing areas [14]. - Bearish factors: The total arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June, and the expected high yield of South American soybeans continues [14]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - Bullish factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price [15]. - Bearish factors: The expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans continues, China has increased its purchase of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of soybeans [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and total supply of global soybeans generally showed an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated and increased [22]. - **USDA's Recent Six - Month Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: There have been some changes in the harvest area, yield, output, and other indicators of US soybeans in the past six months [23]. - **US Soybean Planting and Growth Progress in 2024**: The sowing, emergence, flowering, pod - setting, and other progress of US soybeans in 2024 are compared with the same period last year and the five - year average [24][25][26]. - **Brazilian Soybean Planting and Harvesting Progress in 2024/25**: The planting and harvesting progress of Brazilian soybeans in 2024/25 are compared with the same period last year and the five - year average [27][28]. - **Argentine Soybean Planting Progress in 2024/25**: The planting progress of Argentine soybeans in 2024/25 is compared with the same period last year and the five - year average [29]. 3.5 Position Data The provided content does not mention position data. 3.6 Soybean Meal and Soybean Trading Strategies 3.6.1 Soybean Meal - Futures: US soybeans oscillate above the 1000 - point mark in the short term, and soybean meal oscillates within the range of 2900 - 3100 in the short term. Short - term interval trading is the main strategy [17]. - Option strategy: Sell out - of - the - money put options [19]. 3.6.2 Soybeans - Futures: The A2509 contract of soybeans oscillates within the range of 4100 - 4300. Short - term interval trading is recommended [20]. - Option strategy: Wait and see [20]. 3.7 Soybean and Soybean Meal Fundamentals (Supply - Demand Inventory Structure) 3.7.1 US Soybean Market Analysis - US soybeans are oscillating strongly in the short term due to Sino - US tariff negotiations and biodiesel policies. The overall good planting weather in US soybean - producing areas suppresses the upward space of the market [33]. - The market focuses on the variability of US soybean - producing area weather and changes in Sino - US trade relations. The US soybean market may oscillate above the 1000 - point mark in the short term, waiting for further guidance [33]. 3.7.2 Domestic Soybean Meal Industry Chain - **Imported Soybean Arrival**: The arrival of imported soybeans reached a high in June, and the overall volume increased [36]. - **Oil Mill Pressing and Inventory**: The soybean inventory of oil mills decreased slightly, while the soybean meal inventory continued to increase. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills decreased from a high level, and the demand for forward stocking weakened [37][39]. - **Soybean Meal Transaction**: The downstream procurement in China has rebounded to a relatively high level, and the pick - up volume has remained good [44]. - **Pig Farming Inventory**: The inventory of pigs and sows increased slightly year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month. Pig prices and piglet prices decreased slightly [46][48]. 3.8 Market Structure of Meal Products - The soybean meal futures oscillated strongly, while the spot price was relatively stable, and the discount fluctuated slightly [59]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference between the 2509 contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal remained oscillating [61]. 3.9 Technical Analysis 3.9.1 Soybean Technical Analysis - Soybean futures oscillated and rebounded, driven by the trend of US soybeans and the rise of domestic soybean spot prices [67]. - The KDJ indicator oscillated at a high level, and the short - term technical indicator entered the rebound stage, but the high - level indicator limited the further upward space [67]. - The MACD oscillated and rebounded at a low level, and the short - term technical rebound may continue for a short time [67]. 3.9.2 Soybean Meal Technical Analysis - Soybean meal oscillated strongly this week, mainly driven by US soybeans. The expected concentrated arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans suppressed the upward space of the market [69]. - The KDJ indicator oscillated at a high level, entering the technical oscillation and consolidation stage, and the upward space at the high - level indicator may be limited [69]. - The MACD oscillated and rebounded, and the short - term technical rebound was accompanied by a narrowing of the red energy [69]. 3.10 Next Week's Focus Points - The most important points are the planting weather in US soybean - producing areas, Sino - US trade relations and the follow - up of the tariff war, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans in China [72][73]. - The second - important points are the domestic demand for soybean meal, the inventory of domestic oil mills, and downstream procurement [74]. - The third - important points are macro - factors and the conflicts in Russia - Ukraine and Israel - Palestine [74].