转自：成都日报锦观 美联储在"不同寻常时刻"宣布年内首次降息 降息25个基点 特朗普满意吗？ 9月17日，美国联邦储备委员会主席鲍威尔在华盛顿出席记者会。 新华社记者 胡友松 摄 美国联邦储备委员会17日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到4.00%至4.25%之间。这是美联储2025 年第一次降息，也是继2024年三次降息后再次降息。 美联储在"不同寻常时刻"宣布降息，背后有哪些政策考量？能否为美联储缓解来自特朗普政府的压力？美联储货币政策将走向何方？ 美国就业增长放缓，通胀居高不下，加之关税对物价影响仍在进一步显现，美国经济面临多重不确定性。 ■ 特朗普很难满意？ 观察人士认为，此次降息虽符合外界预期，但从特朗普政府过去几个月的表态来看，显然难以缓解白宫对美联储的不满。 ■ 年内还要降两次？ 美联储利率预测"点阵图"显示，美联储官员对今年剩余两次政策会议累计降息幅度的中位数预测值为50个基点，同时预计2026年将仅降息一 次。 ■ 为何在此时降息？ "就业疲软"是首因 美联储决策机构联邦公开市场委员会在会后发表声明说，近期指标显示，美国上半年经济活动增长放缓，就业增长放缓 ...

美国联邦储备委员会17日宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到4.00%至4.25%之间。分析人士表示，美联储此次降息能否提振美国经济有待观 察。 特朗普政府或持续施压美联储 由于担忧特朗普政府关税政策推动通胀回升，美联储今年以来一直"按兵不动"，将利率维持在较高水平。此次虽然降息，但幅度远未达到特朗普的要求。 休·约翰逊经济咨询公司董事长兼首席经济学家休·约翰逊认为，特朗普政府可能继续对美联储施压，要求美联储大幅降低短期利率。 分析人士认为，由于关税、移民等政策持续对企业和消费者信心带来负面影响，美国经济或难以逆转整体放缓的趋势。此外，降息和关税可能形成叠加效 应，使美联储控制通胀的目标更难实现。 当前，美国就业增长放缓，通胀居高不下，关税对物价的影响仍在进一步显现，美国经济面临多重不确定性。此次降息反映了美联储对就业情况的担忧甚于 通胀风险。美联储主席鲍威尔17日表示，美国就业市场疲软是他和其他政策制定者当前的首要考虑因素。分析人士表示，对于政策制定者来说，在不断上升 的通胀和疲软的劳动力市场之间取得平衡是一个困境。 ...

新华社北京9月18日电 经济热点问答｜美联储降息释放哪些信号 新华社记者陈斯达 美国联邦储备委员会17日宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到4.00%至4.25%之间。这 是美联储2025年第一次降息，也是继2024年三次降息后再次降息。此次降息决定的背后有哪些政策考 量？能否为美联储缓解来自特朗普政府的压力？美联储货币政策未来走向何方？ 此次降息有何考量 美联储主席鲍威尔17日在新闻发布会上表示，美国就业市场疲软是他和其他政策制定者当前的首要 考虑因素。 观察人士认为，此次降息虽符合外界预期，但从特朗普政府过去几个月的表态来看，显然难以缓解 白宫对美联储的不满。 由于特朗普政府此前频繁施压美联储降息，《华尔街日报》日前发表评论文章认为，本次美联储议 息会议处于一个"不同寻常的政治时刻"，是近年来"最奇特"的会议之一，而会议结果显示，鲍威尔成功 促成了美联储内部"团结"。 由于担忧特朗普政府关税政策推动通胀回升，美联储今年以来一直"按兵不动"，将利率维持在较高 水平。此次虽然降息，但幅度远未达到特朗普的要求。特朗普7月曾表示，美联储设定的利率水平至少 偏高300个基点。他认为，美联储将利率长期维持在" ...

Group 1 - The latest Federal Reserve "Beige Book" indicates that both employment and consumer spending in the U.S. are under pressure due to tariffs, leading to a slowdown in hiring and investment by businesses [1][2] - The report highlights that all Federal Reserve districts have experienced price increases related to tariffs, raising production costs for companies and living expenses for consumers [1][2] - Many businesses express concerns about the economic outlook, with worries about trade policy changes, high interest rates, and stricter immigration policies affecting their confidence [1] Group 2 - Consumers are facing a dual challenge of rising prices and reduced employment, with wage growth not keeping pace with inflation, particularly as companies adjust labor and pricing strategies in response to tariffs [2] - The "Beige Book" reveals increasing economic uncertainty, with the term "uncertainty" mentioned 80 times, reflecting a more cautious decision-making environment for both businesses and consumers [2]

Core Viewpoint - The dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by President Trump raises questions about the President's authority to remove a Fed official and the potential impact on the Fed's independence [1][3]. Group 1: Dismissal and Legal Implications - Trump dismissed Cook citing alleged mortgage fraud, but Cook has filed a lawsuit claiming the dismissal is unlawful [1]. - The allegations against Cook involve declaring two properties as her "primary residence" to obtain better mortgage rates, which has been referred to the Justice Department for investigation [1]. - Legal experts suggest that the Trump administration must prove Cook's alleged misconduct in court, which could lead to a prolonged legal battle potentially reaching the Supreme Court [1][3]. Group 2: Impact on Federal Reserve Independence - The rationale for Cook's dismissal does not directly relate to her ability to perform her duties as a Fed Governor, indicating a potential misuse of presidential power [2][3]. - Trump's actions could set a precedent for presidential influence over the Fed, undermining its independence and stability, which is crucial for U.S. monetary policy [3]. - If Trump successfully removes Cook, it could allow him to nominate two governors, further increasing presidential influence over the Fed [3]. Group 3: Economic Challenges - The potential erosion of the Fed's independence may exacerbate existing challenges in balancing employment and price stability, leading to greater economic uncertainty in the U.S. [4].

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury yield curve steepened in the Asian morning session following Trump's removal of Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve Board [1] - Independent market analyst Tina Teng noted that expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut increased after Trump's social media post, leading to a rise in short-term U.S. Treasury prices [1] - Long-term bond prices fell, attributed to increased uncertainty in the U.S. economy [1]

本周四（8月21日），杰克逊霍尔央行年会将要召开。市场普遍关注美联储主席鲍威尔在该年会上发表 的讲话，特别是该讲话关于美联储未来货币政策走向的信息。 美国经济现在面临的最大风险就是不确定性。正如巴菲特先生说过的："只有在潮水退去之后，我们才 能够知道谁在裸泳"。 免责声明：本文内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。一切有关市 场的准确信息，请以相关官方公告为准。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 JerryZang 有分析师认为，特朗普总统与鲍威尔可能在幕后达成了一些共识，因此9月重启降息是大概率事件。不 过，笔者认为，即便鲍威尔在9月议息会议上赞成降息，他也只是在权衡各种利弊后的权宜之计，未来 鲍威尔不会在降息问题上采取积极的行动。 距离鲍威尔明年5月离职还有9个月时间，而特朗普总统在此期间又很难使鲍威尔提前离任，这无疑会造 成美国经济在高利率环境下承受更长时间的负面压力，增加美国经济下行的风险，加大美国经济面临的 不确定性。 有华尔街机构认为，鲍威尔会在该年会上给市场普遍热议的美联储9月议息会议上重启降息泼冷水，甚 至有分析师开始怀疑美联储是否会在9月降息。 笔者认为，鲍威尔一段时间以来 ...

Group 1 - The core CPI in the US for July 2025 ended a five-month streak of underperformance, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, aligning with expectations, while core CPI rose by 0.32% [1] - The US economy is facing uncertainties, with signs of weakening consumer market momentum and cautious corporate investment, leading to speculation that the Federal Reserve may consider interest rate cuts despite current inflation data [1] - Market expectations have shifted towards a "rate cut anticipation leading to a reinforced soft landing expectation," resulting in declines in the 2-year Treasury yield and the dollar index, while 10-year TIPS, 10-year Treasury yields, and US stocks have risen [1] Group 2 - The July PPI data indicates that tariff pressures may have been transmitted to US wholesalers, with a month-on-month increase of 0.95%, significantly exceeding the expected 0.2%, and core PPI rising by 0.92%, the highest since 2022 [2] - The impact of tariffs on wholesale, retail, and end-consumer prices remains uncertain, and the market's expectation for a September rate cut is not guaranteed due to the variability in data quality [2] - In optimistic scenarios, the Federal Reserve may cut rates twice this year, while in pessimistic scenarios, only once in October; looking ahead to mid-2026, a new Fed chair may lead to a more accommodative monetary policy with potential rate cuts ranging from 4 to 6 times next year [2] Group 3 - Prior to the September FOMC meeting, the dollar index and 2-year Treasury yield are expected to rise, reflecting a correction of overly optimistic rate cut expectations [3] - Following the September FOMC, market bets on rate cuts in 2026 are anticipated to increase, with concerns about the Fed's independence and debt sustainability likely to widen the yield spread between 2-year and 10-year Treasuries [3] - Recent discussions between Trump and Putin regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict may enhance short-term market risk appetite, potentially leading to downward pressure on gold prices as safe-haven sentiment diminishes [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has maintained the federal funds rate at the 4.25-4.50% range, consistent with market expectations [3] - Economic growth has shifted from a "solid pace" to a "moderate" pace, with consumer spending weakening and the housing market remaining sluggish. The Q2 GDP annualized growth rate is reported at 3.0%, primarily driven by a decrease in net imports [4] - Inflation data has shown marginal strengthening, with the June PCE price index increasing by 2.6%, surpassing expectations of 2.5% and the previous value of 2.4%. The core PCE price index also rose by 2.8%, indicating uncertainty in the inflation trajectory [5] Group 2 - The report emphasizes that the potential for a rate cut in September hinges on upcoming data, particularly focusing on core PCE price index trends and unemployment rates. The FOMC will closely monitor these indicators to assess economic balance [5] - There is a noted division among FOMC voting members, with two members voting against maintaining the current rate, highlighting a rare occurrence of dissent within the board. This indicates a split in perspectives among the FOMC members [6]

当地时间7月30日，美国联邦储备委员会结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%之间不变。这一决定符合市场预 期，也是美联储今年连续第五次决定维持利率不变。 降息无望，特朗普梦碎7月！ 此前，美国总统把批评鲍威尔当成了日常打卡，甚至放出狠话，要把鲍威尔从美联储主席的位子上拉下来。 然而，美联储此轮表态无疑让"懂王"成了热锅上的蚂蚁，毕竟急火攻心要求降息背后是赤裸裸的政治账和经济账。 一方面，中期大选即将到来，特朗普急需一个欣欣向荣的经济面来吹嘘自己进行拉票。 在这种情况下，美联储降息能够刺激市场带来股市上涨、贷款降价的大好局面，这也有助于特朗普阵营向选民吹嘘。 另一方面，如今美国联邦政府债务面临37亿美元的"国债大山"，利率每提高1%，政府每年就得多掏出近3600亿美元来还债的利息，这对财政预算无疑是个 巨大窟窿。 只是可惜，尽管特朗普各种花式施压要求降息，甚至不惜亲自前往美联储"督战"，但鲍威尔本轮依旧坚挺，可谓是直接给了"懂王"一巴掌。 鲍威尔在新闻发布会上给出的理由很明确——因为特朗普。美联储发现特朗普政府的经济政策让美国经济前景的不确定性依旧很大，通胀和就业目标 ...