Report Overview - The report is a daily risk management report on polypropylene, dated August 14, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Polypropylene (PP) prices currently lack a directional driver and mainly follow macro - sentiment. In the short - term, the PP supply - demand balance can be maintained, but there is significant inventory pressure looking towards the 01 contract. Future focus should be on demand and cost changes [3] Summary by Directory Price Forecast - The monthly price range for polypropylene is predicted to be between 7000 - 7200 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 8.48%, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 6.7% [2] Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, sell 25% of PP2509 futures at 7150 - 7200 yuan/ton to lock in profits and sell 50% of PP2510C7200 call options at 30 - 60 to collect premiums and reduce costs [2] Procurement Management - For low regular inventory and procurement based on orders, buy 50% of PP2509 futures at 7000 - 7050 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs and sell 75% of PP2510P7000 put options at 30 - 60 to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if prices fall [2] Core Contradictions - The polyolefin market follows macro - sentiment and coking coal prices. PP supply is high due to previous plant startups and PDH plant returns during the maintenance season. Demand has stable downstream开工率, with low raw material and finished - product inventories and speculative restocking willingness, indicating demand elasticity [3] Bullish Factors - Inventory is at a neutral level, and there is an expectation of improved demand [4] Bearish Factors - Two plants in Daxie are expected to start production in August, with multiple plants starting up from June - August, significantly increasing PP production capacity. PDH profits have recovered, and marginal plants are returning. Exports are seasonally weak, and the export window is closed [5] Daily Data Futures Prices and Spreads - The polypropylene main - contract basis was - 35 yuan/ton on August 14, 2025, up 22 yuan/ton from the previous day and down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week [6] - PP01, PP05, and PP09 contracts all showed price declines on August 14 compared to the previous day [8] Spot Prices and Regional Spreads - Spot prices in North China, East China, and South China all decreased slightly on August 14 compared to the previous day [8] Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads - The spreads between different non - standard and standard polypropylene products showed various changes on August 14 compared to the previous day [8] Upstream Prices and Processing Profits - Brent crude oil prices remained stable, while US propane prices increased slightly. Different PP production methods had varying profit changes [8]

Report Overview - Report Title: Polypropylene Risk Management Daily Report - Report Date: August 7, 2025 - Analysts: Dai Yifan, Gu Hengye [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The recent supply-demand pattern of PP has shown limited overall changes. The supply side faces pressure from new device commissioning and the recovery of PDH profits, while the demand side remains weak, and the supply-demand imbalance cannot be fundamentally alleviated in the short term, keeping PP in a weak pattern. However, recently, due to more disturbances from macro sentiment and coking coal prices, PP has generally shown a volatile pattern [3] Summary by Directory Polypropylene Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for polypropylene is 7000 - 7200. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 8.48%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility over 3 years is 6.7% [2] Polypropylene Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: For high product inventory and concerns about price drops, shorting PP2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio in the 7150 - 7200 range can lock in profits. Selling the PP2509C7300 call option with a 50% hedging ratio in the 10 - 50 range can collect premiums to reduce costs [2] - **Procurement Management**: For low regular procurement inventory and the need to purchase based on orders, buying PP2509 futures with a 50% hedging ratio in the 7000 - 7050 range can lock in procurement costs. Selling the PP2509P7000 put option with a 75% hedging ratio in the 10 - 50 range can collect premiums to reduce procurement costs and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [2] Core Contradictions - Supply - side pressure comes from new device commissioning and PDH profit recovery. Multiple devices were commissioned in the middle of the year, and two Daxie devices are expected to be commissioned in early August, increasing supply. The recovery of PDH production profits has led to the return of device operation, further intensifying supply - side pressure. Demand is weak, and there is no strong driver for demand growth [3] Bullish Factors - The "anti - involution" policy has driven up coking coal prices, providing cost support for polyolefins. Inventory is at a neutral level [4] Bearish Factors - Two Daxie devices are expected to be commissioned in early August, and multiple devices have been commissioned from June to August, significantly increasing PP production capacity. PDH profits have recovered, and marginal devices are gradually returning. Exports are seasonally weak, and the export window is currently closed [5] Polypropylene Daily Report Table - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On August 7, 2025, the polypropylene main - contract basis was - 15 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 3 yuan/ton and a weekly change of - 7 yuan/ton. There are also detailed price and spread data for different contracts and time spreads [6][8][9] - **Spot Prices and Regional Spreads**: Spot prices in North China, East China, and South China are provided, along with regional spread data [8][9] - **Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads**: Spreads between various non - standard and standard polypropylene products are given [8][9] - **Upstream Prices and Processing Profits**: Prices of Brent crude oil, US propane, northwest coal, and East China methanol, as well as processing profits for different production methods, are presented [8][9]

聚丙烯风险管理日报 2025年8月1日 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 顾恒烨（期货从业证号：F03143348 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 聚丙烯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 聚丙烯 | 7000-7300 | 8.48% | 6.7% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 聚丙烯套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 | 套保比例(%) | 建议入场区 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | 为了防止存货跌价损 | | 向 | | 间 | | | | | 失，可以根据企业的库 存情况，做空聚丙烯期 | PP2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 7250-7300 | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担心聚丙烯价 | 多 | 货来锁定利润，弥补企 | | | | | | 理 | 格下跌 | | 业的生产 ...

聚丙烯套保策略表 聚丙烯风险管理日报 2025年7月22日 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 顾恒烨（期货从业证号：F03143348 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 聚丙烯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 聚丙烯 | 7000-7300 | 7.71% | 3.6% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 | 套保比例(%) | 建议入场区 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | | 间 | | | | | 为了防止存货跌价损 失，可以根据企业的库 | | | | | | | | | 存情况，做空聚丙烯期 | PP2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 7250-7300 | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担心聚丙烯价 | 多 | 货来锁定利润，弥补企 | | | | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polypropylene (PP) market is currently in a state of weak oscillation. The fundamental situation of PP is under significant supply pressure, but the spot price is relatively firm, and the recent trading volume has improved to some extent. It is expected that the PP market will continue to oscillate in the near future [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polypropylene Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for polypropylene is 6900 - 7200, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.17% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 20.1% [1] Polypropylene Hedging Strategy Table Inventory Management - For companies with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, it is recommended to short PP2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 7100 - 7200 to lock in profits and cover production costs. Also, sell the PP2509C7200 call option with a 50% hedging ratio at a premium range of 20 - 50 to collect premiums and reduce costs [1] Procurement Management - For companies with low regular procurement inventory looking to purchase based on orders, it is recommended to buy PP2509 futures with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 6900 - 7000 to lock in procurement costs in advance. Also, sell the PP2509P6900 put option with a 75% hedging ratio at a premium range of 30 - 70 to collect premiums and reduce costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [1] Core Contradictions - The PP market is facing great supply pressure. Multiple plants were put into operation in the middle of the year, and the PP output is at a historical high even with a high rate of plant maintenance. Although the operating rate of some PDH plants has declined recently, it is expected to rise again due to the recovery of PDH profits, leading to an increase in supply. On the other hand, the spot price of PP is relatively firm, and the trading volume has improved, which supports the market. Therefore, it is difficult for the PP market to show a trending movement and is expected to oscillate in the near future [2] Bullish Factors - The inventory is at a neutral level, and the spot price is relatively firm with improved trading volume [3] Bearish Factors - Two plants in Daxie are expected to be put into operation in August. Multiple plants have been or will be put into operation from June to August, which will significantly increase PP production capacity. The recovery of PDH profits will lead to the return of marginal plants [4] Polypropylene Daily Report Table Futures Prices and Spreads - The basis of the polypropylene main contract on July 17, 2025, was 40 yuan/ton, a daily change of - 17 yuan/ton and a weekly change of 32 yuan/ton. The prices of PP01, PP05, and PP09 contracts also showed certain daily and weekly changes, as did the spreads between different contracts [1][5][7] Spot Prices and Regional Spreads - The spot prices in North China, East China, and South China showed different degrees of decline on July 17, 2025, compared with previous days, and the regional spreads also changed [7] Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads - The spreads between various non - standard and standard polypropylene products also showed different degrees of change on July 17, 2025, compared with previous days [7] Upstream Prices and Processing Profits - The Brent crude oil price remained stable, while the US propane price decreased. The prices of Northwest coal, East China methanol, and the processing profits of different PP production methods also showed various changes [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents Core Views - Recently, the polyolefin market has been driven up by macro sentiment and coking coal prices. However, the short - term upward space for PP is relatively limited due to expected supply increases [2]. - The reasons for limited upward space of PP are new device commissioning and reduced device maintenance, which increase supply pressure [2]. - There are both positive and negative factors for PP. Positive factors include favorable macro sentiment, neutral inventory levels, and firm spot prices, while negative factors are new device commissioning and the return of marginal devices [2][3] Summaries by Related Content Price and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range for polypropylene is 7000 - 7300 yuan. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 13.38%, and its historical percentile in the past 3 years is 30.7% [1] Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, short 25% of PP2509 futures to lock in profits and offset production costs, and sell 50% of PP2509C7200 call options to collect premiums and lock in the selling price if prices rise [1] Procurement Management - When the procurement inventory is low and there is a need to purchase based on orders, buy 50% of PP2509 futures to lock in procurement costs in advance, and sell 75% of PP2509P7100 put options to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if prices fall [1] Core Contradictions - In the context of macro - driven market upswing, the upward space for PP is limited. The supply of PP is expected to increase significantly. New devices are being commissioned, and device maintenance has decreased, leading to increased supply pressure [2] Positive Factors - Favorable macro sentiment, neutral inventory levels, and relatively firm spot prices [2] Negative Factors - Multiple devices will be commissioned from June to August, significantly increasing PP production capacity. PDH device profits have recovered, and marginal devices are gradually resuming production [3] Market Data - The table shows various data such as polypropylene basis, contract prices, regional price differences, upstream prices, and processing profits [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents 2. Core View of the Report - PP is currently in a volatile pattern. Considering its fundamentals, the upside and downside space for PP is limited. In the short - term, PP is expected to maintain this volatile pattern. The supply side is expected to have significant increments, including new plant commissions and reduced equipment maintenance, which restricts upward price movement. Although in the demand off - season, demand shows some resilience at low prices, limiting the downside space [2] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Price and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for polypropylene is 6900 - 7200. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 13.27%, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 30.3% [1] 3.2 Hedging Strategies 3.2.1 Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, it is recommended to short PP2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 7100 - 7150, and sell PP2509C7100 call options with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 50 - 100 [1] 3.2.2 Procurement Management - For low procurement inventory and the need to purchase according to orders, it is recommended to buy PP2509 futures with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 6950 - 7000, and sell PP2509P7000 put options with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 40 - 70 [1] 3.3 Market Analysis 3.3.1 Supply - side Factors - Multiple PP plants are expected to be commissioned from June to August, with an expected new production capacity of 2.2 million tons. In July, PP equipment maintenance is expected to decrease, and plants are gradually resuming operations, increasing supply pressure [2] 3.3.2 Demand - side Factors - Although PP is in the demand off - season, demand shows some resilience at low prices, which may trigger bottom - fishing sentiment [2] 3.3.3 Market Conditions - Inventory remains at a neutral level, and the spot price is relatively stable with little change in the basis [5] 3.4 Market Data 3.4.1 Price and Spread Data - Data on polypropylene's main basis, contract prices, month - to - month spreads, regional spreads, and spreads between non - standard and standard products are provided [6] 3.4.2 Upstream Price and Processing Profit - Data on upstream prices such as Brent crude oil, US propane, northwest coal, and East China methanol, as well as processing profits for different production methods of PP, are presented [6]

source： 南华研究 【核心矛盾】 受宏观情绪影响，近日聚烯烃震荡上行。从基本面来看，PP近期呈现供增需弱的格局：供给端，6-8月新装置投产计划较多，预计新增产能达到 220万吨，导致供给端压力大幅增加。叠加7月PP装置检修将有所减量，装置回归带来进一步供给增量。而在需求端，当前仍处于下游产销淡季之 中，企业以刚需补库为主，需求缺乏增量驱动。所以在当前的供需格局下，PP存在较大压力。对比PE来看，当前L-P价差走扩逻辑具备一定支 撑，后续需关注装置投产进度和中美关税政策变化。 聚丙烯风险管理日报 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 顾恒烨（期货从业证号：F03143348 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 聚丙烯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 聚丙烯 | 6900-7200 | 13.10% | 29.7% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 聚丙烯套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 | 套 ...

聚丙烯风险管理日报 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 顾恒烨（期货从业证号：F03143348 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 聚丙烯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 聚丙烯 | 6900-7200 | 13.77% | 33.0% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 聚丙烯套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 | 套保比例(%) | 建议入场区 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | | 间 | | | | | 为了防止存货跌价损 | | | | | | | | | 失，可以根据企业的库 | | | | | | | | | 存情况，做空聚丙烯期 | PP2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 7100-7200 | | | | | 货来锁定利润，弥补企 | | | | | | 库存管 | 产成品 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core View - Polypropylene (PP) is greatly affected by the macro - situation, including Sino - US negotiations and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, bringing significant uncertainty to the market. However, the fundamentals of PP have changed little recently. With increasing supply pressure and weak demand, the upside potential of PP is limited [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast - The monthly price range of PP is predicted to be between 6,800 and 7,100 yuan. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 9.69%, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 12.0% [1]. 3.2 Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short PP2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at 7,050 - 7,100 yuan, and sell PP2509C7000 call options with a 50% hedging ratio at 50 - 100 yuan [1]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy PP2509 futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 6,800 - 6,900 yuan, and sell PP2509P6900 put options with a 75% hedging ratio at 50 - 100 yuan [1]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - The macro - situation has a great impact on polyolefins. The supply of PP is under pressure due to reduced planned maintenance and upcoming new device launches. The demand is weak as it is the traditional off - season for downstream orders and the downstream profit is poor this year [2]. 3.4 Bullish Factors - Current device maintenance is at a high level, leading to a marginal reduction in supply. - The current market is at a low level, limiting the downside space. - Tensions in the Middle East may drive up oil prices, supporting polyolefins [3]. 3.5 Bearish Factors - Yulong Line 2 was launched during the Dragon Boat Festival, and multiple devices will be launched from June to August, significantly increasing PP production capacity. - The seasonal peak of exports has passed, and subsequent exports are expected to decline. - It is the off - season for downstream sales, and domestic demand is weak due to poor overall profits this year [4]. 3.6 Market Data - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On June 12, 2025, the PP01 contract was 6,918 yuan/ton, the PP05 contract was 6,909 yuan/ton, and the PP09 contract was 6,969 yuan/ton. There were corresponding daily and weekly changes in these contracts and their spreads [5][7]. - **Spot Prices and Regional Spreads**: On June 12, 2025, the spot price in North China was 6,975 yuan/ton, in East China was 7,140 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7,195 yuan/ton. There were also changes in regional spreads [7]. - **Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads**: There were changes in the spreads between different non - standard and standard PP products, such as the spread between homopolymer injection molding and wire drawing [7]. - **Upstream Prices and Processing Profits**: The Brent crude oil price was 69 dollars/barrel, the US propane price was 543.032 dollars/ton, etc. There were different profit situations for various PP production methods, such as oil - based, coal - based, etc. [7].