证券研究报告 最新A股、港股、美股估值怎么看？ ——估值周报（0707-0711） 李立峰 SAC NO:S1120520090003 冯逸华 SAC NO:S1120523070007 2025年7月12日 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 全球主要指数估值总览 注：自2010年1月起，截至2025年7月11日 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 上证指数 创业板指 恒生指数 恒生科技 标普500 纳斯达克指数 道琼斯工业指数 日经225 德国DAX 中位数 最大值 最小值 现值 A股 港股 美股 日股 德股 图表1：全球主要指数PE(TTM) 资料来源： wind ，华西证券研究所 2 目录 风险提示 3 一、A股市场估值水平 二、A股行业估值水平 三、部分机构集中持有个股估值水平 四、港股市场估值水平 五、港股行业估值水平 六、美股市场估值水平 七、中概股估值、中美银行股估值比较 1.1 A股绝对估值变化 图表2、3：A股整体PE(TTM)、A股剔除金融和石油石化PE(TTM，剔除负值) 15.94 2010-01 2011-01 2012-01 2013-01 2014-0 ...

公开资料显示，诺辉健康自去年3月份停牌以来，出现了被调出港股通标的证券名单、2024年财务报告 迟迟未能披露等情况，公募基金管理人也多次下调对其的估值，从停牌前的14.14港元/股一路下调至目 前估值价格。 举例来说，7月9日，财通基金发布公告称，自2025年7月8日起，对旗下投资组合所持有的停牌股票仕佳 光子采用"指数收益法"进行估值。待该股票复牌且其交易体现活跃市场交易特征，并经与基金托管人协 商后，基金管理人将恢复采用当日收盘价格进行估值。 前海开源基金首席经济学家、基金经理杨德龙在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示："由于股票价格和 真实价值之间存在较大差异，公募基金管理人需要对股票进行估值调整，以更准确地反映基金净值。" "公募基金管理人对持仓股票进行估值调整，核心是为了确保基金净值的公允性和准确性以及保障投资 者公平。"晨星(中国)基金研究中心高级分析师李一鸣表示，当股票因停牌、重大事件导致二级市场价 格无法真实反映其内在价值时，若继续按市价估值可能误导投资者。例如，若股票突发重大利空后停 牌，停牌前的市价已不能代表其复牌后的合理价格，公募基金管理人需通过估值调整修正。此外，基金 净值是投资者申购、赎 ...

Group 1 - Netflix Inc has been downgraded to "neutral" from "buy" by Seaport Research Partners due to concerns over its long-term valuation and limited growth potential, particularly regarding advertising and new project launches [1] - The stock has experienced significant growth since mid-2022, with a 45% increase in 2025 and reaching a record high of $1,341.15 on June 30 [2] - The 14-Day Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Netflix closed at 71, indicating it is nearing "overbought" territory, which could signal potential price declines [2] Group 2 - Options traders are increasingly buying puts, with a 50-day put/call volume ratio of 0.87, ranking higher than 98% of readings from the past year, suggesting a growing interest in protective positions [3]

证券研究报告 最新A股、港股、美股估值怎么看？ ——估值周报（0630-0704） 李立峰 SAC NO:S1120520090003 冯逸华 SAC NO:S1120523070007 2025年07月05日 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 全球主要指数估值总览 资料来源： wind ，华西证券研究所 2 图表1：全球主要指数PE(TTM) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 上证指数 创业板指 恒生指数 恒生科技 标普500 纳斯达克指数 道琼斯工业指数 日经225 德国DAX 中位数 最大值 最小值 现值 A股 港股 美股 日股 德股 注：自2010年1月起，截至2025年7月4日 目录 风险提示 3 一、A股市场估值水平 二、A股行业估值水平 三、部分机构集中持有个股估值水平 四、港股市场估值水平 五、港股行业估值水平 六、美股市场估值水平 七、中概股估值、中美银行股估值比较 1.1 A股绝对估值变化 4 4 图表2、3：A股整体PE(TTM)、A股剔除金融和石油石化PE(TTM，剔除负值) 15.76 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2010-01 2011-0 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of quantitative research, financial modeling, and risk management in equity valuation and market trends [1] - It highlights the combination of fundamental and technical analysis to uncover high-growth investment opportunities [1] - The focus is on macroeconomic trends, corporate earnings, and financial statement analysis to provide actionable investment ideas [1] Group 1 - The analyst has over 20 years of experience in the field, with a strong background in model validation and regulatory finance [1] - The approach taken by the analyst and their partner is data-driven, blending rigorous risk management with a long-term perspective on value creation [1] - The article aims to deliver high-quality insights that help investors outperform the market [1]

Core Insights - UnitedHealth Group's stock has experienced a significant decline from approximately $600 in April to around $275 in May, with a slight recovery to $325, following disappointing Q1 results and management changes [2] - Despite the stock's volatility, it is currently trading at attractive valuations, supported by strong operating performance and financial health metrics [2][9] Valuation - UnitedHealth's price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is 0.7, compared to 3.1 for the S&P 500, indicating it is inexpensive relative to the broader market [6] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 12.9 versus 26.9 for the S&P 500, further highlighting its appealing valuation [6] Revenue Growth - UnitedHealth's revenues have grown at an average rate of 11.3% over the last three years, significantly outpacing the S&P 500's 5.5% growth [6] - In the last 12 months, revenues increased by 8.1%, from $379 billion to $410 billion, compared to a 5.5% growth for the S&P 500 [6] Profitability - The company's operating income over the past four quarters was $33 billion, resulting in an operating margin of 8.2%, which is considered subpar [6] - UnitedHealth's net income totaled $22 billion, reflecting a net income margin of 5.4%, lower than the S&P 500's 11.6% [6] Financial Stability - UnitedHealth's balance sheet is described as robust, with a debt figure of $81 billion and a market capitalization of $297 billion, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of 28.6% [12] - The company holds $34 billion in cash, contributing to a strong cash-to-assets ratio of 11.1% [12] Downturn Resilience - UNH stock has shown resilience during downturns, outperforming the S&P 500 in several recent market declines [8][13] - The overall assessment of UnitedHealth's performance indicates strong growth, weak profitability, strong financial stability, and strong downturn resilience [13]

Core Viewpoint - The North Exchange is seen as an excellent venue for public funds to demonstrate active management capabilities and create alpha, according to Gu Xinfeng, who recently achieved the third place among A-share funds this year [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The liquidity of the North Exchange is improving, leading to a stronger willingness among quality companies to list on this platform [1] - Despite some stocks being relatively expensive, the large base of the New Third Board provides a continuous influx of new opportunities for the market [1]

作 者丨尹华禄 编 辑丨陈思颖 资本大佬刘益谦传来新消息，旗下天茂集团股价被一基金公司"打骨折"。 7月1日，汇添富基金公告，对旗下证券投资基金所持有的"天茂集团"按照0.27元/股进行估 值，而天茂集团停牌前的价格为2.74元/股，此次下调幅度超过90%。 汇添富基金称，将密切关注上述股票的后续动态，进行合理评估，并与基金托管人协商，必 要时进一步确定其估值价格。待上述股票体现出活跃市场交易特征后，将恢复为采用当日收 盘价格进行估值，届时将不再另行公告。 根据深交所相关规定，上市公司未在法定期限内披露年度报告，且在公司股票停牌两个月内 仍未披露，将被实施退市风险警示。 若上市公司因触及上述情形其股票交易被实施退市风险警示之日起的两个月内仍未披露过半 数董事保证真实、准确、完整的相关年度报告，将被终止其股票上市交易。 这样来看，留给天茂集团的时间不多了，还剩两个多月。 据了解，基金公司下调旗下基金所投资的股票估值主要的为了保护基金持有人的利益。当上 市公司受到监管处罚或公司生产的基本面出现了较大变化而导致可能出现潜在较大调整，股 票将面临停牌或者连续跌停，因此要重新进行估值调整。 根据证监会2017年公布的《 ...

Group 1 - The stock price of Tianmao Group (000627) has been significantly reduced by a fund company, with a valuation set at 0.27 CNY per share, down from 2.74 CNY per share, representing a decline of over 90% [1] - The fund company, Huatai Fuhua Fund, stated that the adjustment in stock valuation is primarily to protect the interests of fund holders, especially when a listed company faces regulatory penalties or significant changes in its fundamentals [1] - Tianmao Group has been suspended from trading for nearly two months due to its failure to disclose its 2024 annual report by the legal deadline of April 30 [4] Group 2 - If Tianmao Group does not disclose more than half of its board members' guarantees of the accuracy and completeness of the annual report within two months from the date of the delisting risk warning, its stock will be terminated from listing [5] - The company has limited time left to complete and disclose its annual report, with just over two months remaining [5] - The actual controller of Tianmao Group is Liu Yiqian, a well-known art collector and investor, who has a significant background in the A-share market [5]

Core Insights - Paychex reported a nearly 10% decline in stock price following the announcement of its Q4 FY'25 results, despite a year-over-year revenue growth of 10% to $1.43 billion and adjusted earnings increasing by 6% to $1.19 per share [2] - The company's FY'26 guidance of 16.5% to 18.5% revenue growth was below market expectations, contributing to investor disappointment [2] - Challenges include integration issues from the recent acquisition of Paycor and rising interest costs from debt incurred for the acquisition, along with the negative impact of the conclusion of the Employee Retention Tax Credit program [2] Financial Performance - Paychex's revenues have shown modest growth, with a 4.3% increase from $5.2 billion to $5.4 billion over the last year, compared to a 5.5% growth for the S&P 500 [7] - Quarterly revenues rose by 4.8% to $1.5 billion in the latest quarter, matching the S&P 500's improvement [8] - The company has an average annual growth rate of 6.6% over the past three years, slightly outperforming the S&P 500's 5.5% [7] Profitability Metrics - Paychex's net income for the last four quarters was $1.7 billion, resulting in a net income margin of 32.0%, significantly higher than the S&P 500's 11.6% [9] - The operating income for the last four quarters was $2.3 billion, reflecting a high operating margin of 41.5% [15] - Operating cash flow during this period was $1.8 billion, indicating a strong operating cash flow margin of 32.7% compared to the S&P 500's 14.9% [15] Financial Stability - Paychex's debt stood at $864 million, with a market capitalization of $50 billion, resulting in a low debt-to-equity ratio of 1.6% compared to the S&P 500's 19.4% [10] - Cash and cash equivalents amount to $1.6 billion, contributing to a cash-to-assets ratio of 14.3% out of total assets of $11 billion [10] Valuation Comparison - Paychex's price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is 10.1, significantly higher than the S&P 500's 3.1 [7] - The price-to-free cash flow (P/FCF) ratio is 34.3 compared to 20.9 for the S&P 500, and the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 31.6 versus 26.9 for the benchmark [7][4] - The elevated valuation of Paychex stock raises concerns about its upside potential in the short to medium term [14]