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航运衍生品数据日报-20250929
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 06:04
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 II GERIK 航运衍生品数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 卢钊毅 | 投资咨询号: Z0021177 | | 2025/9/29 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 数据来源:Clarksons、Wind | | | 从业资格号:F03101843 | | | | 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 | 中国出口集装箱运价 | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | | | 综合指数SCFI | 指数CCFI | | | | | | til | 现值 | 1115 | 1087 | 1460 | 1193 | 2385 | 971 | | Alla | 前值 | 1198 | 1120 | 1636 | 1349 | 2557 | 1052 | | 运 | 涨跌幅 | -6.97% | -2.93% | -10.76% | -11.56% | -6.73% | -7.70% | | 指 | | SCFI ...
航运日报:船司10月下半月尝试挺价,关注下半月实际成交价格-20250923
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 05:15
航运日报 | 2025-09-23 船司10月下半月尝试挺价,关注下半月实际成交价格 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation:马士基上海-鹿特丹40周报价870/1460,41周报价840/1400;HPL -SPOT 9月下半月价格 935/1435,10月上半月价格935/1435,10月下半月价格1235/2035;11月上半月价格1535/2535. MSC+Premier Alliance:MSC 9月下半月船期报价950/1590,10月上半月价格950/1590;ONE 10月上半月船期报 价1065/1665;HMM上海-鹿特丹10月上半月船期报价968/1506; YML 9月22日至10月15日报价850/1300。 Ocean Alliance:CMA 上海-鹿特丹9月下半月船期报价1010/1620,10月上半月船期报价1010/1620;CMA上海-安特 卫普10月下半月尝试挺价,价格为1460/2520。EMC 9月份下半月以及10月上半月船期价格介于1400-1710;OOCL 9月份下半月以及10月上半月船期价格介于1400-1500美元/FEU。 地缘 ...
航运日报:10月上半月运价中枢继续下移,HPL尝试提涨下半月价格-20250919
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 03:08
航运日报 | 2025-09-19 10月上半月运价中枢继续下移,HPL尝试提涨下半月价格 市场分析 线上报价方面。 10月合约:淡季合约空配为主,10月上半月运价中枢继续下移,HPL尝试提涨下半月价格。正常来讲,4月份以及 10月份是一年中运价最低的两个月份,10月合约交割结算价格为10/13、10/20以及10/27日SCFIS的算数平均值。 双 子星联盟,马士基WEEK40周以及WEEK41周价格开价1400美元/FEU,HPL-SPOT 9月份以及10月上半月运价1500+ 美元/FEU;OA联盟中 OOCL 9月下半月以及10月第一周船期价格跌至1500-1550美元/FEU;MSC 9月份以及10月 上半月运价跌至1590美元/FEU;PA联盟 YML 9月下半月以及10月上半月价格均下修至1300美元/FEU。目前10月 上半月运价中枢继续下移,已经降至1400美元/FEU左右(折合SCFIS 1000点左右)。总体来看,10月合约在驱动 向下的前提下,空配相对安全,但核心问题在于向下空间,目前HPL(1500+美元/FEU)、YML(1300美元/FEU) 以及MSC 1590美元/FEU 的 ...
航运日报:马士基10月第二周报价沿用,HPL-SPOT10月下半月价格沿-20250918
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-18 03:16
Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the text regarding the report's industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The October contract is mainly short - allocated during the off - season, with its valuation continuing to be revised downward. The HPL has announced the price for the second half of October. The price center in the first half of October has dropped to around $1500/FEU (equivalent to about 1050 points on SCFIS). The SCFIS on October 13 is expected to be between 1050 - 1100 points. If other shipping companies follow HPL's lead and keep the prices unchanged, the final delivery settlement price of the October contract will likely be below 1100 points [4]. - The pattern of off - peak and peak seasons still exists in the December contract. There is an opportunity to bet on the price increase expectation in November. However, the current risks include the bottom of the current freight rate decline and the weak demand on the US route. If ships on the US route are transferred to the European route in the fourth quarter, it may put pressure on European route prices [5]. - The strategy suggests that the main contract will fluctuate weakly on a single - side basis, and it is advisable to short the October contract in an arbitrage strategy [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of September 17, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European route futures contracts was 86,848.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 65,208.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1578.80, 1285.00, 1468.70, 1616.70, 1109.70, and 1672.00 respectively [6]. 2. Spot Price - On September 12, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was $1154/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was $2370/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was $3307/FEU. On September 15, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1440.24 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1349.84 points [6]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In October 2025, the monthly average weekly capacity on the China - European base port route was 272,600 TEU, and in November, it was 283,000 TEU. There were 15 blank sailings and 1 TBN in October and 4 blank sailings and 6 TBN in November. HMM has announced the PA alliance's winter suspension plan for the Asia - Europe route [3]. - As of September 14, 2025, 186 container ships with a total capacity of 1.495 million TEU had been delivered in 2025. Among them, 59 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU (total 886,000 TEU) and 8 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU (total 176,880 TEU) had been delivered [6]. 4. Supply Chain - There is geopolitical instability as Israel has launched a large - scale ground offensive in the Gaza Strip, which may impact the shipping supply chain [2]. 5. Demand and European Economy - The demand on the US route is weak, with the US NRF estimating that the container import demand from September to December 2025 will be about 20% lower than the same period in 2024. The transfer of US - bound ships to the European route in the fourth quarter may affect European route prices [5].
航运日报:运价中枢继续下移,HMM价格下修至1700美元/FEU-20250905
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-05 06:14
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The freight rate center continues to decline, with the HMM price revised down to $1700/FEU. The 10 - month contract is under downward pressure, and short - allocation is relatively safe, but attention should be paid to the price level at which shipping companies try to stabilize prices. The 12 - month contract follows the off - peak and peak season pattern, but the risk lies in the bottom of the current freight rate decline. The main contract shows a weak and fluctuating trend, and it is advisable to short the 10 - month contract at high prices [1][4][5]. - 2025 is a major year for container ship deliveries, with 180 ships delivered so far, totaling 1.452 million TEU of capacity [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Prices - As of September 4, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European route futures contracts is 80,613 lots, and the daily trading volume is 37,244 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts are $1518.70, $1247.80, $1443.00, $1607.40, $1300.70, and $1676.00 respectively [6]. 2. Spot Prices - Online quotes from various shipping companies show a general downward trend in freight rates. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam prices in weeks 37 and 38 have decreased, and many shipping companies' prices in September and October have also declined. The current 9 - month freight rate center has dropped to around $1900/FEU [1][4]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - MSC and the Gemini Alliance have announced blank sailings during the Chinese Golden Week. In September, there are 3 blank sailings, and in October, there are 10 blank sailings and 7 TBNs. HPL has announced two additional ships in October, with a total capacity of about 11,500 TEU. As of August 31, 2025, 180 container ships have been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 1.452 million TEU [3][7]. 4. Supply Chain - Geopolitical factors, such as the Israeli military's actions in Gaza, may affect the shipping supply chain. The Israeli military is expanding its operations in Gaza, which may lead to potential impacts on shipping routes and trade [2]. 5. Demand and European Economy - The US NRF estimates that the demand for container imports in the US from September to December 2025 will decline by about 20% compared to the same period in 2024. The demand in the US line is weak, and if ships from the US line are transferred to the European line in the fourth quarter, it may put pressure on European line prices [5].
航运日报:双子星联盟黄金周空班公布,HPL以及YML10月上半月价格挂出-20250904
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-04 05:55
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 10 - month contract is mainly for short - allocation in the off - season, and the freight rate center continues to decline. In a normal year, the freight rate in October is 20% - 30% lower than that in August. Currently, the freight rate center in September has dropped to around $2000/FEU, and the short - allocation of the 10 - month contract is relatively safe, but the key lies in the downward space. In the context of a large discount, it is relatively safe to short the EC2510 contract on rallies, but do not over - short [4]. - The off - season and peak - season pattern of the 12 - month contract still exists, and the risk lies in the bottom of this round of freight rate decline. In a normal year, the Far East - Europe price in December is generally more than 10% higher than that in October. As the freight rate bottom becomes clearer, long - allocation can be gradually carried out later to trade the expected freight rate increase by shipping companies in November and December [5]. - The main contract fluctuates weakly, and it is advisable to short the 10 - month contract on rallies [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - **Online Quotations**: Different alliances and shipping companies have different price quotations for different routes and time periods. For example, the price of Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam route in week 37 is $1175/1970, and in week 38 is $1035/1730. HPL's SPOT price for the first half of September, the second half of September, and the first half of October is $1085/1735 [1]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: On September 2, local time, the Israeli military chief of staff said that the Israeli army had entered new areas in Gaza City and would increase its operations and strike intensity [2]. - **Empty Voyages**: MSC and the Gemini Alliance have announced empty voyages during the Chinese Golden Week. The initial capacity involved in the four voyages of MSC is approximately 59,000 TEU, and the AE1 route of the Gemini Alliance in week 41 is also empty. The monthly average weekly capacity from China to European base ports in September is 290,700 TEU, and in October is 268,000 TEU [3]. - **Overtime Ships**: HPL has announced information on two overtime ships in October, with a total capacity of about 11,500 TEU [3]. 2. Futures Prices As of September 3, 2025, the total contract positions of the container shipping index for European routes are 82,665.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 40,534.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are as follows: EC2602 is 1534.00, EC2604 is 1255.10, EC2606 is 1441.10, EC2508 is 1609.50, EC2510 is 1323.00, and EC2512 is 1701.20 [6]. 3. Spot Prices On August 29, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was $1481.00/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was $1923.00/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was $2866.00/FEU. On September 1, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1773.60 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1013.90 points [6]. 4. Container Ship Capacity Supply In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of August 31, 2025, 180 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.452 million TEU. Among them, 58 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 873,000 TEU, and 8 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 176,880 TEU [7]. 5. Strategy - **Unilateral**: The main contract fluctuates weakly. - **Arbitrage**: Short the 10 - month contract on rallies.
航运衍生品数据日报-20250903
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-03 08:49
II GEREK 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 航运衍生品数据日报 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 投资咨询号: Z0021177 卢钊毅 从业资格号: F03101843 数据来源:Clarksons、Wind SCFI-美西 SCFIS-美西 | | 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 | 中国出口集装箱运价 | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 综合指数SCFI | 指数CCFI | | | | | | 葉 | 现值 | 1445 | 1156 | 1923 | 1013 | 2866 | 1481 | | | 前值 | 1415 | 1175 | 1644 | 1041 | 2613 | 1668 | | 运 | 涨跌幅 | 2.10% | -1.58% | 16.97% | -2.69% | 9.68% | -11.21% | | HS | | SCFIS-西北欧 | SCFI-地中海 | | | | | | 数 | | | ...
航运衍生品数据日报-20250902
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-02 07:33
| | | | 301911-12 1 21171 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 中国出口集装箱运价 | | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | | | 综合指数SCFT | 指数CCFI | | | | | | 集 | 现值 | 1445 | 1156 | 1923 | 1013 | 2866 | 1481 | | | 前值 | 1415 | 1175 | 1644 | 1041 | 2613 | 1668 | | 运 | 涨跌幅 | 2.10% | -1.58% | 16.97% | -2.69% | 9.68% | -11.21% | | 指 | | SCFIS-西北欧 | SCFI-地中海 | | | | | | 数 | 现值 | 1773 | 2145 | | | | | | | 前值 | 1990 | 2225 | | | | | | | 涨跌幅 | -10.90% | -3.60% | | | | | | | 导科 ...
航运衍生品数据日报-20250820
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 08:24
Group 1: Shipping Derivatives Data - Present values and previous values of various shipping freight rate indices (SCFI, CCFI, etc.) and their percentage changes are provided, such as SCFI with a present value of 1460, a previous value of 1490, and a decline of 1.98% [5] - Present values, previous values, and changes in contract prices (EC2506, EC2508, etc.), positions, and month - spreads are also presented [5] Group 2: Market News - Hamas has accepted a Gaza cease - fire and hostage agreement proposed by Qatar and Egypt mediators [6] - Trump called Putin during the Ukraine summit at the White House [6] - The US imposed a 50% import tariff on 407 steel and aluminum commodities on August 18 [6] - Asia - Europe route freight rates continue to decline despite "robust" bookings, with available container ship capacity at 30 TBU, about 29% of active capacity [6] - The spill - over effect of US tariff hikes is spreading, hitting Indian exporters with a 50% tariff [6] Group 3: EC Market Analysis - The EC market shows a volatile trend. Maersk's lower quotes and market reactions lead to a short - term price increase, and the 08 contract is strong due to delay - supported slower decline of freight rates [7] - Airlines are accelerating price cuts to maintain market share, and the overall downward trend of spot freight rates is established. The odds of shorting the 10 - contract are relatively low [7] Group 4: Strategy - The strategy is to short the 10 - contract on rallies and conduct a rolling 10 - 12 reverse spread [8]
航运衍生品数据日报-20250801
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 06:04
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The spot price of shipping derivatives basically peaked at the end of July. It is expected to decline slowly until late August and then the decline rate will intensify. The main focus of the 10 - contract game is the decline rate of freight rates from August to October. The strategy is to short the 10 - contract on rallies (take profits due to recent large pullbacks) and hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread [5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shipping Freight Index - **Spot Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) and China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) both declined. SCFI dropped by 3.30%, CCFI by 3.23%. Among different routes, SCFI - US West decreased by 3.50%, SCFIS - US West by 1.31%, SCFI - US East by 6.48%, SCFI - Northwest Europe increased by 0.53%, SCFIS - Northwest Europe decreased by 3.50%, and SCFI - Mediterranean by 4.35% [3]. - **Contract Index**: All contract indices declined. EC2506 dropped by 3.41%, EC2508 by 0.81%, EC2510 by 2.97%, EC2512 by 2.63%, EC2602 by 3.09%, and EC2604 by 4.47% [3]. - **Position**: For positions, EC2606 increased by 32, while EC2508 decreased by 724, EC2410 by 3056, EC2412 by 45, EC2602 by 77, and EC2604 by 184 [3]. - **Calendar Spread**: The 10 - 12 spread increased by 2.1 to - 267.2, the 12 - 2 spread increased by 1.6 to 207.6, and the 12 - 4 spread increased by 16.3 to 368.2 [3]. Market News - USTR Greer hopes for positive progress in China - related trade but does not expect a major breakthrough. Trump's trade team also anticipates no major breakthrough in China negotiations. The EU - China summit commemorated the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations, with the meeting period shortened from two days to one at China's request, reflecting escalating tensions. The US - China trade negotiation team met in Stockholm, and both sides expressed the importance of stable economic and trade relations and the intention to continue consultations [4].