Some furloughed government workers will return to work to produce a key inflation report for September, allowing for the calculation of Social Security's cost-of-living adjustment, according to reports. ...

周四，三大股指均创历史最高收盘纪录。美国预测交易平台Kalshi显示，市场现在预计美国政府停摆将 持续近13天，高于昨天预测的9天。市场情绪正转向认为华盛顿的僵局将持续更长时间。 【美股】截至收盘，道指涨78.62点，涨幅为0.17%，报46519.72点；纳指涨88.89点，涨幅为0.39%，报 22844.05点；标普500指数涨4.15点，涨幅为0.06%，报6715.35点。英特尔(INTC.US)涨3.78%， AMD(AMD.US)涨3.5%、Circle(CRCL.US)涨16.05%、Coinbase(COIN.US)涨7.48%；特斯拉(TSLA.US)跌 5.11%。纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨1.06%，阿里巴巴(BABA.US)涨3.59%、蔚来汽车(NIO.US)涨 3.14%。 【欧股】德国DAX30指数涨287.77点，涨幅1.19%，报24437.22点；英国富时100指数跌22.98点，跌幅 0.24%，报9423.45点；法国CAC40指数涨89.68点，涨幅1.13%，报8056.63点；欧洲斯托克50指数涨 66.24点，涨幅1.19%，报5647.45点；西班牙IBEX3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB exchange rate surged approximately 300 points, reaching 7.1173, marking the first time since November 6, 2024, that it broke the 7.12 level, indicating a stronger appreciation of the RMB compared to the depreciation of the USD [4]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Performance - The offshore RMB exchange rate rose significantly, with a peak of 7.1173, reflecting a notable appreciation against the USD [4]. - The RMB's appreciation occurred despite the USD not further declining, suggesting a robust demand for RMB assets [8]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The FTSE China A50 index futures rose by approximately 0.3%, indicating positive sentiment towards Chinese assets [6]. - The Hang Seng Tech Index futures increased by over 1%, further reflecting investor confidence in the technology sector [9]. Group 3: U.S. Market Overview - U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones slightly down, while the Nasdaq gained about 0.3% [11]. - Nvidia's stock fell over 1%, despite reporting a 56% revenue growth in its latest quarterly earnings, highlighting some concerns regarding its data center business revenue [12][15]. Group 4: Nvidia's Earnings and Market Outlook - Nvidia's revenue guidance for the upcoming quarter is set at $54 billion, slightly above analyst expectations, but does not include potential sales from China, which could enhance revenue if agreements are reached [15]. - Analysts have become more bullish on Nvidia's stock following the earnings report, with several firms raising their price targets, indicating a positive outlook for the company [15].

Core Viewpoint - The latest inflation report from the United States indicates that tariffs have not had a negative impact on the economy [1] Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury advisor highlights that the recent inflation data continues to support the notion that tariffs are not detrimental [1]

Core Viewpoint - The possibility of the Federal Reserve taking early action has increased, but it still depends on upcoming key reports regarding inflation and the job market [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - Employment Market Analysis - The recent non-farm payroll report presents a different scenario compared to what Federal Reserve Chair Powell described earlier in the week [1] - The unemployment rate remains at a reasonable level, indicating that even a poor report may not lead all hawkish individuals to completely change their stance [1] - Inflation Reports - Future inflation reports will be critical in determining whether the Federal Reserve will act sooner than expected [1] - The sustainability of inflation trends will play a significant role in the decision-making process [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that there are two upcoming employment and inflation reports before the next meeting, which will guide future decisions [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring employment and inflation data [1] - The outcomes of the two reports will influence the direction of monetary policy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The inflation report is generally positive, with core inflation rising by 0.2% month-over-month, aligning with expectations, while annual data is slightly above expectations [1] Group 1: Inflation Data - Core inflation's monthly increase of 0.2% meets expectations, indicating stability in inflation trends [1] - Annual inflation data is slightly higher than anticipated, suggesting some inflationary pressures may be emerging [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Implications - The inflation data provides the Federal Reserve with breathing room, allowing them to maintain interest rates steady in July [1] - The Fed will need to consider data from July and August before making a decision in September [1]

Core Viewpoint - ANZ Bank suggests that the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain the federal funds target rate unchanged in the upcoming meeting, indicating a patient approach from Chairman Powell amidst economic uncertainties [1] Economic Indicators - Recent macroeconomic data shows a cooling job market, yet it remains relatively resilient, providing the Fed with the opportunity to focus on the forthcoming inflation report [1] Monetary Policy Outlook - ANZ Bank expects Chairman Powell to continue emphasizing patience, stating that monetary policy is in a good position to respond appropriately to developments [1]

Core Viewpoint - The mild inflation report for May has shifted traders' bets towards the possibility of an interest rate cut before October, with a focus on the Federal Reserve's upcoming dot plot for insights on policy considerations for the remainder of the year [1] Group 1 - The price increase in May was milder than expected, influencing market expectations [1] - Traders are adjusting their outlook towards potential interest rate cuts in the near future [1] - Investors are particularly interested in the Federal Reserve's dot plot for indications of future policy direction [1]

Core Insights - The recent inflation report is rated as "A+", but it contains two significant concerns [1] Group 1: Inflation Report Analysis - Analysts predict that the impact of tariffs will lead to an acceleration in the increase of commodity prices in May and especially in June [1] - Year-over-year inflation is expected to show a notable decrease by mid-2024, making the comparative base less advantageous [1]