电解铜区域性紧张持续发酵，强势之下关注前高 一、日度市场总结 持仓与成交 ：LME铜持仓量从12月18日的344850手增加611手，小幅扩大； 但SMM资讯显示，精铜杆企业开工率环比下滑，下游订单疲软，暗示市场成 交量可能收缩。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端 ：中国11月精炼铜产量123.6万吨，同比增11.9%，供给保持强劲； 但2026年铜精矿长单加工费Benchmark定为0美元/吨，低于2025年的21.25 美元/吨，暗示矿山供应趋紧；西部矿业取得新采矿许可证，增加铜资源储 备，但短期影响有限。 需求端 ：需求整体疲软，中国11月铜材产量222.6万吨，同比减0.8%；SMM 预计12月铜杆产量环比下降4.5万吨至100万吨，且精铜杆企业开工率下 滑，下游订单仅维持刚需；汽车、建筑等领域需求平淡，12月乘用车销量 预计温和回升但无显著增量。 库存端 ：LME铜库存从12月18日的44650吨增至12月19日的45739吨，增加 2.44%；SHFE库存从164275吨降至160400吨，减少2.36%；COMEX库存增至 459564短吨。精铜杆企业原料库存环比降1.89%，成品库存增2.31 ...

电解铜9万上方维持强势，长期供应短缺预期持续 一、日度市场总结 铜期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差 ：12月17日SHFE主力合约价格小幅上扬至92630元/吨，较 前一日上涨0.83%。基差整体走弱，升水铜贴水加深至-125元/吨，较前一 日扩大45元；LME(0-3)贴水也加深至-9.52美元/吨。 持仓与成交 ：LME持仓在12月16日小幅收缩435手至350621手；SHFE库存增 至166600吨，可能反映持仓压力增加。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端 ：供给端呈现扩张趋势，12月17日KMS电解铜成为LME注册品牌，新 增年产能3万吨；嘉能可收购秘鲁Quechua铜项目，提升区域产能。但局部 供应紧张，如宁波再生黄铜货源紧俏，流通货源偏少。 需求端 ：需求端表现疲软，湖北再生铜杆订单成交价低于报价，显示实际 需求不足；商用冷冻压缩机市场虽在第三季度小幅回暖，但整体受全球经 济疲软影响，电力、建筑等领域支撑有限。 库存端 ：库存分化明显，LME库存12月17日减少1.98%至44877吨，但SHFE 库存增至166600吨，COMEX库存也增加，全球库存压力上升。 价格走势判断 未来一到两周铜 ...

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper futures prices are experiencing high volatility, with current trading showing a slight decline from the previous day [1] Group 1: LME Copper Futures Performance - On November 27, LME copper futures opened at $10,965 per ton and are currently at $10,954.5 per ton, reflecting a decrease of 0.19%. The intraday high reached $10,979 per ton, while the low was $10,934.5 per ton [1] - On November 26, LME copper futures had an opening price of $10,846.0, a peak of $11,025.0, a low of $10,846.0, and a closing price of $10,953.0, marking an increase of 1.11% [1] Group 2: Copper Market Updates - As of November 26, the electrolytic copper spot price ratio between Shanghai and London is 7.97, with an import loss of ¥760.69 per ton, compared to an import loss of ¥1,026.92 per ton on the previous trading day [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a decrease in copper futures warehouse receipts to 39,825 tons, down by 1,140 tons from the previous trading day [1] - The LME reported registered copper warehouse receipts at 150,450 tons, with 6,050 tons canceled and an increase of 425 tons. Total copper inventory stands at 156,500 tons, reflecting a decrease of 75 tons [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core View of the Report - The copper price is expected to remain in a high - level range in the short term. The supply - side disturbances from the Congo accident are limited, and the release of smelting capacity restricts the upside space. The demand - side power investment has a significant supporting effect, but the weakness of the real - estate chain limits the increase. The repeated expectations of the Fed's policy at the macro - level make the market sentiment cautious. The expected fluctuation range of the SHFE copper main contract is 84,500 - 87,500 yuan/ton, and the central price of LME copper is 10,500 - 10,900 US dollars/ton [3] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Copper Futures Market Data Changes** - On November 19, the SHFE copper main contract closed at 86,030 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from the previous trading day but down 470 yuan/ton from November 13. The premium of flat - water copper widened to 50 yuan/ton, and the discount of wet - process copper remained at - 55 yuan/ton. The LME (0 - 3) discount widened to - 35.33 US dollars/ton, a new high in nearly two weeks [1] - On November 18, the LME copper open interest decreased by 4,891 lots to 319,542 lots, and the LME inventory decreased by 4.14% on a single day. In China, the SMM - monitored spot purchase sentiment index below 86,000 yuan/ton rose to 3.13, and the low price stimulated the release of downstream replenishment demand [1] - **Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes** - **Supply Side**: There are both short - term disturbances and long - term increments. The bridge collapse accident at the Kalando copper mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo may affect local transportation, but the 60kt/a copper smelting project signed by Kefei Technology and the LEDYA Group in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the discovery of high - grade ore bodies in the Mt Oxide project in Australia by TrueNorth Copper indicate medium - term supply increments. The end of the maintenance of smelters in North China has put pressure on the spot premium, and the domestic refined copper supply has become marginally looser [2] - **Demand Side**: Power infrastructure provides strong support. The 100MW wind power project of the Songzi Babao of the National Energy Group has been approved, and the supporting 160MWh energy storage facility will drive the demand for copper materials. The SMM spot purchase and sales sentiment index rose to 3.13/3.26 (purchase/sales), indicating that the rigid - demand buying was active below 86,000 yuan/ton. However, there are no significant signs of recovery in the construction and consumer electronics sectors [2] - **Inventory Side**: Global visible inventories are differentiated. The LME inventory decreased by 4.1% to 58,352 tons in a week, while the SHFE inventory increased to 140,500 tons, highlighting the domestic visible inventory pressure. However, the SMM inventory in the country's mainstream regions decreased by 0.73 million tons to 19.38 million tons on a month - on - month basis, mainly due to the small amount of imported goods. It is expected that the closure of the import window may continue the de - stocking trend [2] 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - The SMM:1 copper premium copper price on November 19 was 86,140 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a change rate of 0.05%. The flat - water copper premium was 50 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a change rate of 66.67%. The wet - process copper discount remained at - 55 yuan/ton. The SHFE price was 86,030 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a change rate of 0.29%. The LME inventory decreased by 2,522 tons to 58,352 tons, with a decrease rate of 4.14% [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - On November 19, the supply of North China electrolytic copper market will return to normal due to the end of the maintenance of upstream smelters, which has put pressure on the spot premium, and the short - term trading activity in the market tends to heat up [6] - On November 18, Kefei Technology signed a general contract for the 60kt/a copper smelting project in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. TrueNorth Copper made significant progress in the new discovery area of the Mt Oxide project in northern Queensland, revealing a continuous copper - cobalt - silver mineralization system [6][7] - On November 17, a bridge at a copper mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo collapsed, resulting in 49 deaths and 20 serious injuries. As of November 17, the SMM inventory in the country's mainstream regions decreased by 0.73 million tons to 19.38 million tons on a week - on - week basis. It is expected that the weekly copper inventory will decrease slightly in the future [7][8] 4. Industry Chain Data Charts - The report includes multiple data charts such as China PMI, US PMI, US employment situation, dollar index and LME copper price correlation, US interest rate and LME copper price correlation, TC processing fees, CFTC copper positions, LME copper net long positions, SHFE copper warrant volume, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [9][10][12][13][14][18][21][23][27][29][32]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The copper price is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation around 85,000 yuan in the next 1 - 2 weeks. The main contradictions are the balance - sheet gap caused by Freeport canceling the 4th - quarter sales contract after the Indonesian mine accident and the increase in precious - metal demand due to the decline in the US national credit caused by the federal government shutdown. As long as these contradictions continue, the copper price is unlikely to decline. In the short term, the focus is on the US government shutdown event [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **主力合约与基差**: On October 23, the price of the SHFE copper main contract rose to 85,710 yuan/ton, a 0.75% increase from the previous day. However, the spot premium/discount generally weakened. The discount of flat - copper widened to - 10 yuan/ton, and that of wet - copper deepened to - 55 yuan/ton. The LME (0 - 3) discount narrowed to - 6.36 dollars/ton, a significant improvement from - 30.22 dollars/ton the previous week [1]. - **持仓与成交**: The LME copper open interest contracted slightly for two consecutive days, indicating cautious market sentiment. The domestic spot market was inactive, with the premium/discount in North China dropping to a discount of 240 yuan/ton, and downstream resistance to high prices was significant [2]. 3.1.2 Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **供给端**: Short - term disturbances intensified. Jinlong Copper started its annual overhaul on October 11, which might affect the refined - copper output for that month. The Tetelo Copper Mine in Angola is about to be put into production, and Southeast Copper's optimization of sulfur - iron concentrate batching has enhanced its cold - material processing capacity, increasing the medium - and long - term supply increment expectation [3]. - **需求端**: Structural differentiation was prominent. Chinese demand was significantly suppressed by high prices. After the copper price exceeded 85,000 yuan/ton, orders from enameled - wire and processing enterprises decreased significantly, and end - users turned to consuming their own inventories. The US and India became new growth poles, and infrastructure and new - energy demand in the US provided support for the copper price [4]. - **库存端**: On October 23, the SMM national copper inventory decreased by 0.5 tons week - on - week to 18.16 tons, mainly due to a short - term decline in imports and domestic arrivals. However, domestic supplies are expected to increase later. With the continuous decline of LME inventory for three weeks, the marginal reduction of global visible inventory supported the price [5]. 3.1.3 Market Summary The copper price may remain in a high - level oscillation around 85,000 yuan in the next 1 - 2 weeks. The main contradictions are still the balance - sheet gap and the increase in precious - metal demand, and the short - term focus is on the US government shutdown [6]. 3.2 Industry Chain Price Monitoring On October 23, the SMM 1 copper price was 85,530 yuan/ton, a 0.48% increase from the previous day. The premium of premium - copper decreased by 33.33% to 40 yuan/ton, the discount of flat - copper widened by 200% to - 10 yuan/ton, and the discount of wet - copper deepened by 22.22% to - 55 yuan/ton. The LME (0 - 3) discount widened by 81.60% to - 12 dollars/ton. The SHFE price rose to 85,710 yuan/ton, a 0.75% increase, and the LME price rose to 10,817 dollars/ton, a 1.49% increase. The LME inventory decreased by 1.38% to 36,048 tons, the SHFE inventory increased by 0.05% to 136,925 tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 0.29% to 347,498 short tons [8]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On October 23, Jinlong Copper's 2025 annual equipment overhaul started on October 11, with 22 fixed - asset investment projects and 320 regular overhaul projects planned, and the work is progressing smoothly [9]. - As of October 23, the SMM national copper inventory decreased by 0.5 tons week - on - week to 18.16 tons. Import and domestic arrivals were low, but domestic supplies are expected to increase, and demand is expected to pick up, so the weekly inventory is expected to increase [10]. - The Tetelo Copper Mine in Angola, held by China's ShiningStarIcarus with an investment of 250 million dollars, is about to start production. It is expected to produce 25,000 tons of copper concentrate annually in the first two years, starting with open - pit mining and switching to underground mining in the second half of 2026 [10]. - On October 22, Southeast Copper achieved a "zero breakthrough" in the procurement of sulfur - iron concentrate, which can improve smelting heat income, optimize the batching structure, and enhance cold - material processing capacity [10]. - On October 21, copper - consumption growth is being driven by the US and India, while the growth rate of Chinese demand is slowing down [10]. 3.4 Industry Chain Data Charts The report includes charts on China PMI, US PMI, US employment, the correlation between the US interest rate and LME copper price, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper price, TC processing fees, CFTC copper open interest, LME copper net - long open interest analysis, Shanghai copper warrant volume, LME copper inventory change, COMEX copper inventory change, and SMM social inventory [11][16][15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Short-term copper prices may continue to operate strongly above the 82,000-point level. Supply-side disruptions in the mining sector and the mismatch in the release rhythm of smelting capacity, combined with Aurubis raising the European long-term premium to $315 per ton, support the downside space. However, the weakness in traditional demand sectors, the increase in global inventories, and the significant narrowing of the LME basis suppress the upside momentum. At the macro level, the expected Fed policy and dollar fluctuations may intensify price volatility [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Market Summary - **Copper Futures Market Data Changes**: On October 14, the LME copper price was reported at $10,584.5 per ton, a 2.01% decline from the previous day, continuing the recent high-level correction trend. The LME (0 - 3) premium dropped significantly from $226.78 per ton to $54.87 per ton. The spot premium and copper discount narrowed to 100 yuan per ton, and the flat copper discount also shrank to 20 yuan per ton. The LME copper open interest slightly increased by 70 lots to 323,147 lots on October 14, but overall capital flow was relatively stable. Meanwhile, the open interests of other metals such as aluminum, lead, and zinc all decreased to varying degrees [1][2]. - **Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Changes** - **Supply Side**: Global copper mine supply disturbances have intensified. Codelco's August production dropped sharply to 93,400 tons due to an accident at the El Teniente copper mine. Japan's PPC and Mitsubishi Materials announced a 2.5% year-on-year reduction in copper production and a 25% reduction in concentrate processing volume in the second half of the 2025/26 fiscal year, further intensifying the expectation of tight supply. Domestically, the expansion project of Tongling Nonferrous' copper anode slime treatment system and the standardization renovation of Jiangxi Copper's Wutong Mine may improve long-term smelting efficiency, but the short-term actual increase is limited [3]. - **Demand Side**: The production and sales of new energy vehicles maintained a high growth rate, supporting the resilience of copper consumption, but the performance of traditional sectors was differentiated. The brass rod market was affected by the sharp fluctuations in copper prices, and the downstream purchasing willingness was low. Enterprise orders were mainly long-term orders. The demand potential in the power and energy storage fields remained to be released. SMM spot data showed that downstream buying interest was weak, and both the procurement and sales sentiment indexes were below the neutral level [4]. - **Inventory Side**: Global visible inventories continued to accumulate. The LME inventory increased to 36,295 tons on October 14, the COMEX inventory rose to 342,000 short tons, and the SHFE inventory slightly decreased to 138,800 tons but remained at a high level for the year. The inventory pressure highlighted the market's concern about the loose future supply and demand [5]. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring | Data Index | 2025 - 10 - 15 | 2025 - 10 - 14 | 2025 - 10 - 09 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM: 1 Copper | 85,590 | 86,070 | 85,180 | -480 | -0.56% | Yuan/ton | | Spot (Premium/Discount) - Premium Copper | 130 | 100 | 150 | 30 | 30.00% | Yuan/ton | | Spot (Premium/Discount) - Flat Copper | 70 | 20 | 45 | 50 | 250.00% | Yuan/ton | | Spot (Premium/Discount) - Wet - Process Copper | 0 | -45 | -45 | 45 | 100.00% | Yuan/ton | | LME (0 - 3) | 28 | 55 | 227 | -27 | -49.08% | Dollar/ton | | SHFE Price | 85,370 | 85,320 | 84,900 | 50 | 0.06% | Yuan/ton | | LME Price | 10,576 | 10,585 | 10,802 | -9 | -0.08% | Dollar/ton | | LME Inventory | 44,531 | 36,295 | 32,890 | 8,236 | 22.69% | Tons | | SHFE Inventory | 138,350 | 138,800 | 139,350 | -450 | -0.32% | Tons | | COMEX Inventory | 343,235 | 342,280 | 340,875 | 955 | 0.28% | Short tons | [8] Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On October 15, the pre - approval publicity of the environmental impact report of the upgrade, renovation, and expansion project of Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd.'s copper anode slime treatment system was announced. The project will expand the treatment scale of copper anode slime (dry basis) from 5,000 tons per year to 12,000 tons per year [9]. - On October 14, the on - site standardization renovation of the - 310m middle section hole bottom of Jiangxi Copper's Wutong Mine officially started, which will be carried out in three stages [9]. - On October 10, Codelco's copper production in August dropped significantly to 93,400 tons due to an accident at the El Teniente copper mine [9]. - On October 9, Japan's PPC and Mitsubishi Materials announced production expectations for the second half of the 2025/26 fiscal year. PPC expects a 2.5% year - on - year decline in copper production, and Mitsubishi Materials will reduce the concentrate processing volume of the Onahama Smelter by about 25% [10]. - On October 9, Aurubis raised the long - term premium for electrolytic copper in Europe in 2026 to $315 per ton, a record high [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The event of an Indonesian copper mine being declared "force majeure" and suspending the execution of the fourth - quarter supply contract still has an impact. The marginal change in the market turning from supply - demand balance to supply shortage within the year has pushed up global copper prices. However, as the current price remains high, the market's game regarding factors such as the Fed's interest rate cuts has deepened, and short - term market trading still plays a significant role [6] - The copper price may show high - level fluctuations in the range of 82,000 - 84,000 RMB/ton, driven by supply disruptions, improved domestic demand, and the suppression of the US dollar [36][38] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contracts and Basis**: As of September 30, the price of the SHFE copper main contract rose significantly to 83,280 yuan/ton, a 1.23% increase from the previous day. The LME copper price also increased to 10,428.5 US dollars/ton, a cumulative increase of 223.5 US dollars from September 24. In terms of spot premiums and discounts, the premium of premium copper increased significantly from 25 yuan/ton to 70 yuan/ton, and the discounts of flat - water copper and wet - process copper narrowed, indicating a warming sentiment in the spot market and a strengthening of the basis overall [1] - **Positions and Transactions**: The inventory data showed differentiation. The LME copper inventory increased by 1,220 tons (+4.77%) in a single day, while the SHFE inventory decreased slightly by 500 tons (-0.35%), and the COMEX inventory accumulated slightly. The LME (0 - 3) discount narrowed to - 29.22 US dollars/ton [2] 3.1.2 Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: The Las Bambas copper mine in Peru announced the resumption of operations on September 29, but the Chuquicamata smelter under Codelco in Chile suspended production due to an equipment accident. Coupled with the problem of declining copper ore grades in South America, short - term supply disruptions continued. The domestic smelting end maintained a high operating rate, and the processing fee for imported copper concentrates declined slightly [3] - **Demand Side**: The acceleration of domestic infrastructure project starts drove the demand for copper in the power sector. The air - conditioner production schedule in September increased by 15% year - on - year, but the real - estate completion data remained weak. Overseas, the European manufacturing PMI was below the boom - bust line for three consecutive months, suppressing export orders. The rising expectation of the Fed's interest rate hikes led to a stronger US dollar index, which inhibited overseas speculative buying [4] - **Inventory Side**: The global visible inventory continued to show differentiation. The LME inventory rebounded to 26,823 tons, the SHFE inventory decreased slightly to 143,400 tons, and the domestic bonded - area inventory remained at a low level [5] 3.2 Industry Chain Price Monitoring - The table shows the data and changes of various indicators such as spot prices, premiums and discounts, futures prices (SHFE and LME), and inventory (LME, SHFE, COMEX) from September 24 to September 30, 2025 [8] 3.3 Industry Chain Data Charts - The report includes multiple charts such as China PMI, US PMI, US employment situation, the correlation between US interest rates and LME copper prices, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper prices, TC processing fees, CFTC copper positions, LME copper net long positions analysis, Shanghai copper warrant volume, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [9][11][14]

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper futures prices are experiencing weak fluctuations, with a slight decline observed in the latest trading session [1] Group 1: LME Copper Futures Performance - On September 24, LME copper futures opened at $9,980 per ton and are currently at $9,977.5 per ton, reflecting a decrease of 0.16%. The intraday high reached $9,990.5 per ton, while the low was $9,968.5 per ton [1] - On September 23, LME copper futures had an opening price of $10,015 per ton, a highest price of $10,027.5 per ton, a lowest price of $9,955.5 per ton, and a closing price of $9,993.5, showing a slight decline of 0.08% [1] Group 2: Market Indicators - As of September 23, the electrolytic copper spot price ratio between Shanghai and London is 8.02, indicating an import loss of ¥78.71 per ton, which is an improvement from the previous day's loss of ¥94.79 per ton [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a decrease in copper futures warehouse receipts to 27,727 tons, down by 2,166 tons from the previous trading day [1] - LME registered copper warehouse receipts totaled 133,100 tons, with canceled receipts at 11,875 tons, a reduction of 600 tons. Total copper inventory stands at 144,975 tons, down by 400 tons [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the short term, copper prices may maintain high - level oscillations. Supply - side contradictions, such as the shutdown of Indonesian mines and domestic smelter overhauls, support prices, but the increase in scrap copper imports restricts the upward space. On the demand side, overseas demand for high - value - added copper products is strong, but domestic consumption is suppressed by high copper prices. Dollar fluctuations and low inventory levels support copper prices, but the pre - holiday capital risk - aversion tendency may limit the fluctuation range. It is expected that copper prices may maintain high - level oscillations in the next one to two weeks, ranging from 79,000 to 81,000 yuan/ton [6][38] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **主力合约与基差**: On September 22, the price of the SHFE copper main contract closed at 80,160 yuan/ton, fluctuating at a high level. The premium of premium copper decreased slightly from 115 yuan/ton to 105 yuan/ton, and the premium of flat - water copper decreased from 30 yuan/ton to 25 yuan/ton. However, the LME 0 - 3 month discount narrowed from - 71.09 US dollars/ton to - 64.9 US dollars/ton, and the near - month supply pressure was slightly relieved [1] - **持仓与成交**: The LME copper inventory continued the destocking trend, dropping to 29,893 tons on September 22, a decrease of 6.11% compared to September 16. The SHFE inventory also decreased by 1.54% to 145,375 tons. In terms of positions, the LME copper position decreased slightly by 504 lots to 289,843 lots on September 19, and the intensity of the long - short game in the market has not significantly increased [2] b. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **供给端**: There are frequent short - term disturbances. The shutdown of the Indonesian Grasberg mine due to an accident intensifies the expectation of supply shortage. Coupled with the overhaul of smelters in North China, the output of electrolytic copper has decreased. However, the import volume of scrap copper in Africa has increased sharply year - on - year, partially offsetting the supply gap of refined copper. Nevertheless, the year - on - year decline of anode copper imports by 18.72% reflects that there are still hidden concerns in the supply of refined copper raw materials [3] - **需求端**: There is a structural differentiation in external demand. The export of brass bars has decreased by 22.87% year - on - year, but the export of high - value - added products such as copper strips and enameled wires has performed strongly, with significant growth in markets such as South Korea and India. In North China, the recovery of copper prices has suppressed downstream restocking, and pre - holiday stocking has not started yet, showing a pattern of weak supply and demand [4] - **库存端**: Global visible inventories continue to decline, and both LME and SHFE inventories are in the low - level range of the year. The substitution effect of recycled copper supply is enhanced, but the diversification of scrap copper import sources has alleviated the risk of raw material shortage to a certain extent [5] c. Market Summary - In the short term, copper prices may maintain high - level oscillations. Supply - side contradictions support prices, but the increase in scrap copper imports restricts the upward space. On the demand side, overseas high - value - added copper product demand is strong, but domestic consumption is suppressed by high copper prices. Dollar fluctuations and low inventory levels provide support for copper prices, but the pre - holiday capital risk - aversion tendency may limit the fluctuation range [6] 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - The SMM:1 copper price on September 22 was 80,310 yuan/ton, a 0.25% increase compared to September 19. The premium of premium copper decreased by 8.70% to 105 yuan/ton, the premium of flat - water copper decreased by 16.67% to 25 yuan/ton, and the discount of wet - process copper decreased by 16.67% to - 35 yuan/ton. The SHFE copper price increased by 0.34% to 80,160 yuan/ton. The LME copper inventory decreased by 6.11% to 29,893 tons, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 1.54% to 145,375 tons [8] 3. Industry Chain Data Charts - The report includes multiple data charts, such as China's PMI, US employment situation, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper prices, the correlation between US interest rates and LME copper prices, TC processing fees, CFTC copper positions, LME copper net long positions analysis, Shanghai copper warehouse receipts, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [9][13][15]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The short - term copper market may maintain high - level volatility with large intraday fluctuations. Supply - side factors like smelting maintenance and recycled copper raw material interference provide support, but weak demand and LME inventory accumulation suppress the upside. With the Fed interest rate decision to be announced, the volatility is expected to increase on Thursday, and risk prevention for SHFE copper is necessary [1][3] - In the next one or two weeks, copper prices may fluctuate at a high level, mainly driven by supply - side maintenance, weak demand, and cautious macro sentiment. The price range is likely between 80,500 - 81,500 yuan/ton [32] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary 1.1 Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **主力合约与基差**: On September 16, the SHFE copper main contract price was 80,990 yuan/ton, a 0.2% rebound from the previous day, while the LME copper price dropped 0.71% to $10,117/ton. In terms of premium and discount, the domestic premium for premium copper widened to 125 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 discount narrowed to - $59.26/ton [1] - **持仓与成交**: The LME copper open interest continued to expand with a significant inventory build - up, increasing overseas short - selling pressure. The SHFE inventory in China continued to decline, and the warrants did not flow out in large quantities, so the domestic market support was relatively stronger than the overseas market [1] 1.2 Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **供给端**: The tight supply of recycled copper has eased, but the delayed delivery of low - price raw materials has hindered the production of recycled copper rod enterprises. Planned maintenance at North China smelters may exacerbate short - term regional supply tightness. Indonesia's plan to increase Freeport's state - owned equity may disrupt long - term copper mine supply expectations, but the short - term impact is limited [2] - **需求端**: High copper prices have continuously suppressed downstream procurement. The raw material inventory of refined copper rod enterprises decreased by 2.54% week - on - week, and the finished product inventory decreased by 3.63%. The discount of recycled copper rods to the futures price widened to 640 yuan/ton, and downstream acceptance of high - price goods was low, with orders remaining at the minimum requirement [2] - **库存端**: The LME inventory increased continuously, making overseas hidden inventories visible, while the SHFE inventory in China continued to decline, and the structural contradiction still existed [2] 1.3 Market Summary - The short - term copper market may maintain high - level volatility with large intraday fluctuations. Supply - side factors support the market, but weak demand and LME inventory accumulation suppress the upside. After the Fed interest rate decision is announced at the night - session close, the volatility on Thursday is expected to increase, and risk prevention for SHFE copper is necessary [3] 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - From September 10 to September 16, the prices of SHFE copper, spot premium copper, and wet - process copper increased, while the LME copper price decreased. The LME and COMEX inventories increased, and the SHFE inventory decreased [5] 3. Industry Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on China PMI, US PMI, US employment situation, US interest rates and LME copper price correlation, US dollar index and LME copper price correlation, TC processing fees, CFTC copper open interest, LME copper net long positions, SHFE copper warrants, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [6][8][11] 4. Appendix: Large - Model Inference Process - After comprehensively analyzing the copper futures market data and information, it is expected that copper prices will fluctuate at a high level in the next one or two weeks, mainly driven by supply - side maintenance, weak demand, and cautious macro sentiment. The price range may be between 80,500 - 81,500 yuan/ton [30][32]