We got to think about December trading, which tends to be quiet towards the end of the year, just in time for the Santa Claus rally with a few exceptions. And on today's Stocks and Translation, we break down how stocks tend to trade in the last month of the year to help get your portfolio ready for 2026. First, let's take a look at how the S&P 500 index tends to perform in each month of the year.So, there you go. 12 months, 12 bars there. Uh, the only down month here, and this is going back to 1990, tends t ...

So, with seasonality on the horizon, this week's rebound, do we think a year-long rally year end rally is coming. Guy >> gobble gobble. >> I had to say that.Happy hump day. Let's get it out of our system now. >> Okay, it's out. It's amazing.You know, Tim talked about this the other day. The fact that last week we were talking about I was talking about the potential for an outside month to the downside when the S&P 500 was 6,500ish. We had made a new all-time high in the month of November.We were flirting wi ...

The Fear and Greed Index is leaning far into the “Extreme Fear” measure. However, if you know anything about such measures of investor angst, you may ask, "Which Fear and Greed Index?" There is one trusted Wall Street measure of uncertainty — the VIX, a volatility tracker from the Chicago Board Options Exchange — and there are other gauges that measure investor sentiment toward cryptocurrencies and gold. If you want a sentiment barometer for your portfolio, the investment will determine which Fear and Gr ...

中信建投研报表示，当前机构关注基础化工、国防军工、汽车、纺织服装、非银行金融和传媒行业，通 信行业的机构关注度从高位下降。最近一周"石油石化"、"煤炭"、"钢铁"、"轻工制造"和"非银行金 融"行业的机构关注度在提升。当前较多行业处于触发拥挤指标阈值的状态（流动性、成分股一致 性）。2025年11月看好电力及公用事业、基础化工、电力设备及新能源、电子和计算机的相对收益。黄 金、白银、铜和原油的VIX抬升，中长期依然看多黄金。 (本文来自第一财经) ...

One thing that you're looking at is the volatility, the VIX in particular since the government shutdown started. We kind of hit a high of 25 about two weeks into the government shutdown. Big decline since then.Is that the best way to play this playing the uh the VIX options. >> Well, the VIX actually is is just a great indicator to tell us uh the pricing of options. So, when VIX is really low, it means that option prices are are actually rather cheap, including uh puts and calls.But uh the recent rise Frank ...

- The report introduces the **Cinda-VIX volatility index**, which reflects investors' expectations of future volatility in the options market. The index is structured to capture different time horizons, providing insights into short-term and long-term volatility expectations. As of November 7, 2025, the 30-day Cinda-VIX values for major indices are: 18.55 for SSE 50, 19.17 for CSI 300, 26.21 for CSI 500, and 23.84 for CSI 1000[64][66][67] - The **Cinda-SKEW index** measures the skewness of implied volatility across different strike prices in the options market. It captures market sentiment regarding tail risks, with higher values indicating increased concern about potential market downturns. As of November 7, 2025, the SKEW values for major indices are: 103.82 for SSE 50, 108.08 for CSI 300, 101.38 for CSI 500, and 106.80 for CSI 1000[73][76][78] - The report evaluates **index futures basis adjustment**, where the annualized basis is calculated as: $ Annualized Basis = (Actual Basis + Expected Dividend Points) / Index Price × 360 / Remaining Days of Contract $ This adjustment accounts for the impact of dividends on futures prices during the contract's lifespan[20][21][28] - The **IC futures contract** (CSI 500) shows a downward trend in annualized basis, with a current basis of -9.74% as of November 7, 2025, lower than the median since 2022. The contract's trading volume and open interest have decreased compared to the previous week[21][22][27] - The **IF futures contract** (CSI 300) exhibits a current annualized basis of -2.96%, also below the median since 2022. Trading volume and open interest for IF contracts have similarly declined week-over-week[28][29][32] - The **IH futures contract** (SSE 50) has a current annualized basis of -0.24%, reflecting a decrease from the previous week. Open interest and trading volume for IH contracts have also reduced[33][34][37] - The **IM futures contract** (CSI 1000) shows a current annualized basis of -12.49%, marking a decline from the prior week. Open interest and trading volume for IM contracts have decreased as well[39][41][44] - The report evaluates **hedging strategies** for index futures, including continuous hedging and minimum basis strategies. Continuous hedging involves rolling over contracts near expiration, while minimum basis strategies select contracts with the smallest basis. Both strategies are tested across IC, IF, IH, and IM futures contracts[46][47][48] - **IC hedging strategy results**: - Annualized returns: -3.20% (monthly), -2.20% (quarterly), -1.69% (minimum basis) - Volatility: 3.84% (monthly), 4.76% (quarterly), 4.56% (minimum basis) - Maximum drawdown: -10.25% (monthly), -8.34% (quarterly), -7.97% (minimum basis) - Net value: 0.8990 (monthly), 0.9297 (quarterly), 0.9459 (minimum basis)[49][50][52] - **IF hedging strategy results**: - Annualized returns: 0.43% (monthly), 0.72% (quarterly), 1.18% (minimum basis) - Volatility: 2.93% (monthly), 3.28% (quarterly), 3.05% (minimum basis) - Maximum drawdown: -3.95% (monthly), -4.03% (quarterly), -4.06% (minimum basis) - Net value: 1.0141 (monthly), 1.0237 (quarterly), 1.0391 (minimum basis)[51][55][54] - **IH hedging strategy results**: - Annualized returns: 1.09% (monthly), 1.99% (quarterly), 1.72% (minimum basis) - Volatility: 3.01% (monthly), 3.41% (quarterly), 3.02% (minimum basis) - Maximum drawdown: -4.22% (monthly), -3.75% (quarterly), -3.91% (minimum basis) - Net value: 1.0361 (monthly), 1.0668 (quarterly), 1.0574 (minimum basis)[56][59][58] - **IM hedging strategy results**: - Annualized returns: -6.26% (monthly), -4.58% (quarterly), -4.20% (minimum basis) - Volatility: 4.75% (monthly), 5.78% (quarterly), 5.54% (minimum basis) - Maximum drawdown: -14.00% (monthly), -12.63% (quarterly), -11.11% (minimum basis) - Net value: 0.8282 (monthly), 0.8437 (quarterly), 0.8620 (minimum basis)[60][61][62]

Core Insights - Technical indicators suggest a potential for increased market weakness, indicating a bearish sentiment among investors [1] Group 1 - The VIX, a measure of market volatility, is highlighted as a key indicator to monitor for signs of market stress [1]

Market Concerns & Potential Correction - The Fed's concern about the labor market is validated by recent numbers, but high ISM services data suggests persistent inflation, putting the Fed in a difficult position [1] - Bitcoin's underperformance and VIX trends indicate a risk-off sentiment [2] - Stock price action of companies like Oracle, Amazon, and Apple suggests potential for further market decline [2][3] - The market retracement is considered a normal pullback after a significant run, but further selling is anticipated [4] - White-collar job losses are a concern, potentially impacting consumer spending and companies exposed to consumer lending [5][6] Economic Indicators & Fed Policy - Conflicting signals from the Fed regarding inflation vs job losses create tension in the market [7] - The S&P 500 was 13% above its 200-day moving average, and the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF was trading around 30 times forward earnings, indicating overextended valuations [8] - Concerns about a slowing economy raise questions about justifying high valuations [9] - Investors are taking profits and moving into safety trades like treasuries [10] Investor Sentiment & Future Outlook - There's a prevailing "buy the dip" mentality among investors, but the sustainability of this strategy is questioned [10][11][13] - Expectation that the VIX is headed to 25, suggesting another wave to the downside [12] - The current dip is not significant enough, a larger dip is expected before considering it a buying opportunity [13] - Expectation that the VIX could go much higher, potentially exceeding levels seen during Liberation Day or last year with Japan [14]

The dot-com bust, likewise, started pretty quietly. One can reasonably date the top of that bubble as March 10, 2000, when the Nasdaq closed at a record 5,048.62, up a grand total of 1.76 points from the day before.The Dow, for example, closed at an all-time high of 2,722.42 on Aug. 25, 1987. It fell 17.4% from then until Oct. 16, 1987. On Monday, Oct. 19, the index crashed, falling 22.6% in one day. And since then the Dow has never even approached that day's close: 1,738.74. It closed Nov. 5 at 47,436, or ...

Group 1 - The discussion highlights a positive sentiment towards SLB as a strategic investment choice in the current market phase [1] - Morgan Stanley is noted as a favorable option following recent merger activities, indicating strong performance from investment banks [1] - CME Group is expected to perform better if market volatility increases, particularly with a VIX above 20, suggesting a correlation between market conditions and CME's performance [2]