2025 年 08 月 17 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -14% 0% 14% 29% 43% 58% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 房地产 沪深300 相关研究报告 《7 月供需两端均走弱，地产数据仍在 探底—行业点评报告》-2025.8.15 《新房上海同环比领涨，二手房价格 同环比降幅缩小—行业点评报告》 -2025.8.15 《新房成交面积同环比下降，多地加 快城市更新提速 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.8.10 行 业 研 究 新房成交面积环比增加，完善房地产金融基础性制度 ——行业周报 | 齐东（分析师） | 胡耀文（分析师） | 杜致远（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | qidong@kysec.cn | huyaowen@kysec.cn | duzhiyuan@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522010002 | 证书编号：S0790524070001 | 证书编号：S0790124070064 | 核心观点：新房成交面积环比增加，完善房地产金融基础性制度 本周我们跟踪的 68 城新房成交同比下降， ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing a stabilization trend after a prolonged adjustment phase, supported by policy optimization and urban renewal demands, reducing the likelihood of significant further declines in the market [2][10]. Investment and Development Trends - From January to July, national real estate development investment reached 5.36 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.0%, with residential investment around 4.12 trillion yuan, down 10.9% [3][6]. - The new construction area saw a year-on-year decline of 19.4%, but the rate of decline has narrowed for five consecutive months, indicating a potential end to the industry's three-year contraction [6][7]. Funding and Financial Pressure - Real estate developers faced significant financial pressure, with total funds available amounting to approximately 5.73 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.5% [7][8]. - Domestic loans increased slightly by 0.1% to 920.7 billion yuan, while self-raised funds decreased by 8.5% to about 2.32 trillion yuan [7]. Market Dynamics and Policy Impact - The market is expected to stabilize due to ongoing policy adjustments aimed at restoring the fundamental aspects of housing consumption, including support for family planning and education [10][11]. - The focus on urban renewal and the transformation of old neighborhoods is anticipated to drive demand for new housing, particularly in core cities where land auctions remain competitive [12].

Core Viewpoint - A new round of optimization policies is being introduced to stabilize the real estate market, particularly during the traditional off-season, with various cities implementing measures to support both demand and supply sides [1][5][10]. Policy Measures - Hainan Province announced nine measures to optimize real estate policies, including the removal of residential classifications and incentives for families with multiple children and talent introduction [1]. - Changsha County in Hunan Province introduced measures such as increasing public housing loan limits and allowing installment payments for land transfer fees [1]. - Fuzhou released 16 policies to support real estate project development, focusing on streamlining approval processes and optimizing project management [6]. Market Trends - National statistics indicate a decline in new housing sales, with a 4.0% decrease in sales area and a 6.5% drop in sales revenue from January to July 2023 [8]. - Despite the overall downturn, certain cities like Shanghai have shown resilience, with new housing prices increasing by 0.3% in July, indicating a divergence in market performance [8][9]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while the real estate market may experience fluctuations during its bottoming process, the overall trend towards stabilization remains intact [9]. - The recent policy shifts are expected to boost market confidence, as evidenced by increased activity in Beijing's housing market following new policy announcements [10]. - The focus of future policies will likely continue to be on urban renewal and effective implementation of previously announced measures, with expectations of maintaining market resilience in core cities [10].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [10] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the area of unsold properties continues to decrease, and domestic loans maintain positive growth, suggesting a gradual stabilization in the real estate market [8][9] - National real estate investment and sales data for January to July 2025 show a decline in sales area and sales amount, with a year-on-year decrease of 4% and 6.5% respectively, although the decline is narrowing compared to the previous year [8] - The report emphasizes the need for stronger policy support to ensure a more robust recovery in the real estate sector, highlighting that while the market is moving towards stabilization, the foundation remains fragile [8][9] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In July, the national sales area of commercial housing was 57.09 million square meters, down 7.8% year-on-year, with a sales amount of 532.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.1% [8] - The cumulative sales area and sales amount from January to July 2025 show a year-on-year decline of 4% and 6.5%, with the decline slightly widening compared to the first half of the year [8] Investment Trends - Real estate investment in July decreased by 17.1% year-on-year, with new construction down 15.4% and completions down 29.4%, indicating a continued contraction in investment [8] - Despite the overall decline, domestic loans have shown a slight positive growth of 0.1%, reflecting a relatively loose financing environment [8][9] Market Outlook - The report suggests focusing on high-quality properties in core areas that are gradually stabilizing, and recommends companies with strong land acquisition and product capabilities [8][9] - Specific companies to watch include China Overseas Development, Binjiang Group, and China Merchants Shekou, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing trends in the industry [8]

房地产 行 业 研 2025 年 08 月 15 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -14% 0% 14% 29% 43% 58% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 房地产 沪深300 相关研究报告 《新房成交面积同环比下降，多地加 快城市更新提速 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.8.10 《新房成交面积环比增加，调控政策 持续松绑—行业周报》-2025.8.3 《新房成交面积同比增加，推进城市 建设更新提质—行业周报》-2025.7.27 新房上海同环比领涨，二手房价格同环比降幅缩小 ——行业点评报告 | 齐东（分析师） | 胡耀文（分析师） | 杜致远（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | qidong@kysec.cn | huyaowen@kysec.cn | duzhiyuan@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522010002 | 证书编号：S0790524070001 | 证书编号：S0790124070064 | 新房价格同比降幅缩小，一线新房价格环比降幅缩小 国家统计局发布 2025 年 7 月 70 大中城市商品住宅 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the real estate sector [6][8]. Core Views - The real estate fundamentals are weakening, but the reshuffling of property companies is nearing completion [4]. - New home sales have turned negative again, with a 4% year-on-year decline in sales area for new residential properties in the first half of 2025 [1][16]. - The proportion of existing home sales is increasing, with second-hand homes accounting for 46% of total residential transactions in 2024, up 16 percentage points from the lowest point in 2021 [2][92]. - The competition landscape is becoming clearer, with major state-owned enterprises dominating sales rankings [4]. Summary by Sections New Home Sales and Market Dynamics - In the first half of 2025, the total sales area of new homes was 4.6 billion square meters, down 4% year-on-year, while the sales area of new residential properties was 3.8 billion square meters, accounting for 84% of total sales [1][16]. - The average selling price of existing homes was 0.8 million yuan per square meter, while the average price for new homes was 1.1 million yuan per square meter [1][37]. Second-Hand Housing Market - The transaction volume of second-hand homes has been steadily increasing, with a 13% year-on-year growth in the first half of 2025 [2][112]. - The average ratio of second-hand to new home transactions in major cities has risen to 2.3, indicating a shift towards second-hand homes [2][112]. Land Transaction and Competition - The structure of land transactions is changing, with a 28% year-on-year increase in total transaction value for residential land in the first half of 2025, despite a 3% decline in transaction area [3][65]. - Major state-owned enterprises continue to lead in sales and land acquisition, with the top four companies maintaining their positions [4][4]. Investment Recommendations - Given the current weakening fundamentals in the real estate sector, the report suggests that while there may not be a strong upward trend in real estate stocks, recent policy changes in Beijing could signal the beginning of a new round of easing [5][5]. - Recommended stocks include China Jinmao, China Overseas Grand Oceans Group, Beike-W, and Wo Ai Wo Jia [5][8].

Core Insights - The real estate market is stabilizing, with operational assets being revalued first [1][3] - The market remains volatile, with both transaction volume and prices declining [4][5] - Policy measures are focused on land acquisition and old housing renovation [48][50] - Recovery is expected to take time, with adjustments nearing the bottom [4][5] Market Overview - In H1 2025, the sales area of commercial housing decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, showing a narrowing decline of 15.5 percentage points [4][15] - The sales area in 43 monitored cities reached 68.545 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 9.1%, a significant improvement from previous periods [4][29] - The second-hand housing market showed a positive trend, with a sales area of 48.465 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11.0% [4][29] Policy Measures - The government is implementing dual strategies of land acquisition and old housing renovation to stabilize the market [48][50] - As of mid-July 2025, the scale of land acquisition exceeded 480 billion yuan, with a steady increase in the issuance of special bonds [56][58] - Policies are aimed at reducing purchase barriers, including lowering down payment ratios and interest rates [64] Market Outlook - The annual incremental housing demand is estimated at approximately 950 million square meters, with expected sales area in 2025 projected at 900 million square meters [4][5] - The rental yield and risk-free return rates have normalized, providing a foundation for price stabilization [4][5] - Sales area, sales amount, new starts, completions, and investment are expected to decline year-on-year by 7.8%, 7.2%, 11.8%, 10.5%, and 9.8% respectively [4][5] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on financially stable and high-quality real estate companies, including China Resources Land (1109.HK) and Longfor Group (0960.HK) for development, and Poly Property (6049.HK) for property management [4][5]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **real estate industry** in China, particularly focusing on the recent policy changes in **Beijing** and their implications for the broader market [1][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Policy Changes in Beijing**: - Beijing has relaxed some housing purchase restrictions, allowing non-local families with two years of social insurance to buy homes outside the Fifth Ring without limits, while optimizing the provident fund policy [1][3]. - The new policy is expected to influence other cities, particularly Shanghai and Shenzhen, to follow suit [4]. - **Market Performance in 2025**: - In the first half of 2025, the national new housing sales area decreased by 4% and sales amount by 6%, showing a significant improvement compared to nearly 20% declines in 2024 [5]. - The transaction volume of second-hand homes increased by 11% in 40 cities, indicating a recovery trend [5]. - **Challenges Facing the Market**: - The real estate market is still under high inventory pressure, with a de-stocking cycle of approximately 26 months [6][8]. - Despite improvements in transaction volumes, housing prices continue to decline, with core urban areas experiencing smaller declines compared to non-core areas [13]. - **Shifts in Buyer Preferences**: - There is a noticeable shift towards larger housing units, with sales of units over 120 square meters increasing, while smaller units are seeing a decline in sales [10]. Additional Important Insights - **Future Market Expectations**: - Unstable market expectations among buyers are a core issue affecting demand, prompting the government to take measures to stabilize expectations and activate demand [2][23]. - **Potential for Recovery**: - The industry may see a gradual recovery due to supply-side optimizations, with new construction investments decreasing and companies focusing on debt resolution [20]. - **Impact of Mortgage Rates**: - Although mortgage rates are declining, the unchanged down payment ratios have not led to increased borrowing, affecting buyer sentiment [22]. - **Recommended Companies**: - Attention is drawn to "three good companies" with strong credit and quality products, such as Chengtou Chengjian, Binjiang Jianda, and New Town Huayuan, as potential investment opportunities [26]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the real estate industry in China.

Group 1: Market Trends - The top real estate companies are increasing land acquisition efforts, with a notable example being China Merchants Shekou, which purchased five projects for a total of 5.668 billion yuan in July, showing significant year-on-year and month-on-month growth [2] - The total land acquisition amount for the top 100 real estate companies reached 578.3 billion yuan in the first seven months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 34.3% [2] - Despite the robust land acquisition, the sales performance of these companies is declining, with a reported 13.3% drop in total sales for the top 100 companies in the first seven months of 2025 [3] Group 2: Reasons for Divergence - The divergence between declining sales and increasing land acquisition is attributed to several factors, including a significant drop in land prices compared to peak levels, allowing for potential rebounds [4] - Many top real estate companies have resolved issues related to losses and debts, improving their cash flow, which supports their increased land acquisition [4] - The expectation of foreign capital entering the Chinese real estate market due to anticipated interest rate cuts in the U.S. is driving state-owned enterprises to acquire land to counter potential foreign investments [4] Group 3: High-Quality Land Supply - The recent land acquisitions are focused on high-quality plots, particularly in core cities, which are expected to have better sales prospects, thus increasing developers' enthusiasm for land purchases [4][7] - The emergence of new land kings, such as the Shenzhen Qianhai project with a floor price of 84,180 yuan per square meter, indicates a shift towards catering to high-end market demands [5][6] - The overall market is seeing a trend where high-quality housing demand is being met, leading to a situation where only a few standout projects are performing well while others remain stagnant [7] Group 4: Market Recovery Outlook - The overall recovery of the real estate market is still dependent on restoring market expectations, with the current trend being described as "stop falling and stabilize" [8] - Core cities are expected to maintain resilience in the market due to strong fundamentals, but regional disparities are likely to continue [8] - The recent emergence of new land kings is seen as a positive signal for market stabilization, although it does not necessarily indicate a full market recovery [9]

Core Viewpoint - Beijing's new real estate policy aims to boost market expectations and activity, facilitating a stabilization in the housing market [1][7]. Group 1: Policy Changes - Families meeting certain criteria can now purchase an unlimited number of homes outside the Fifth Ring Road in Beijing, which includes both new and second-hand properties [2][3]. - The policy removes the distinction between single and married individuals regarding purchase limits, applying the same rules to all adult individuals [2]. - The new policy does not alter the basic eligibility criteria for purchasing homes, such as the duration of social insurance contributions [2]. Group 2: Impact on Market Dynamics - The Fifth Ring Road is a key area for real estate transactions, with over 80% of new residential sales occurring there from January to July this year [3]. - The policy is expected to support the balance between work and residence, allowing families with real needs to enter the market [3][7]. - The new measures are seen as timely interventions to enhance market activity, especially as recent data indicated a slight weakening in the housing market [7][8]. Group 3: Public Fund Loan Adjustments - The new policy introduces significant changes to public fund loans, including a new standard for first-time homebuyers and increased loan limits for second homes [4][5]. - The maximum loan limit for second homes has increased from 600,000 to 1,000,000 yuan, with a uniform down payment requirement of 30% [4]. - Homebuyers can now withdraw public funds for down payments, reducing the upfront financial burden on first-time buyers [6]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The policy is expected to reinforce the previous stabilization of the market, with analysts predicting a continuation of positive trends in the third quarter [7][8]. - The adjustments are seen as a signal for potential further relaxations in housing policies in other major cities, such as Shenzhen and Shanghai [8].