Core Insights - The speech emphasizes China's significant contribution to global economic resilience and trade, particularly in the context of high-level opening up and cooperation with other countries [2][3]. Group 1: Global Trade Resilience - Global trade has shown strong resilience despite challenges such as the pandemic and geopolitical tensions, with an average annual growth rate of 5.4% from 2019 to 2024, an increase of 4.6 percentage points compared to the previous five years [2][4]. - The World Bank predicts that global trade will exceed $33 trillion in 2024, marking a historical high [2][4]. Group 2: Technological and Cooperative Drivers - A new wave of technological revolution and industrial transformation is injecting new momentum into global trade, with semiconductor trade surpassing $1 trillion annually and green trade in new energy growing from $10 billion a decade ago to over $100 billion in recent years [4]. - The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and other trade agreements have strengthened multi-level economic cooperation, maintaining a stable international economic landscape [4][5]. Group 3: China's Role in Global Trade - China, as the world's second-largest economy and largest goods trader, plays a crucial role in enhancing global economic resilience by stabilizing supply chains and providing a vast consumer market, with an average annual import of $3 trillion in goods and services over the past five years [5]. - The digital economy in China is projected to contribute around 10% to GDP by 2024, with digital service exports exceeding $400 billion, highlighting its importance in global digital trade [5]. Group 4: Foreign Exchange and Investment Reforms - China is advancing deep reforms in the foreign exchange sector, with a 37% increase in foreign exchange market trading volume and a 64% increase in foreign-related income and expenditure compared to 2020 [6]. - New policies are being introduced to enhance cross-border trade and investment facilitation, including expanding pilot programs for high-level opening up and optimizing foreign exchange management for new trade formats [7][8]. Group 5: Beijing's Economic Role - Beijing has maintained a goods trade volume exceeding 3.6 trillion yuan in recent years, with a service trade growth rate of nearly 10% annually, positioning it as a key player in global economic stability [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the strategic decision made by the Central Committee, led by Xi Jinping, to accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, which is crucial for maintaining China's development initiative [1] - The "dual circulation" development pattern was conceived in response to the changes in the global environment due to the pandemic, highlighting the need for new development strategies [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period has seen significant contributions from domestic demand, with an average contribution rate of 86.4% to economic growth from 2021 to 2024 [2] Group 2 - China's goods trade volume is projected to grow from 32.2 trillion yuan in 2020 to 43.8 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting an annual growth rate of 8.0% [2] - The focus on strengthening domestic circulation is seen as essential for countering uncertainties in international circulation, with a strategic emphasis on building a robust domestic economic system [2] - The Central Committee's commitment to expanding domestic demand is aimed at enhancing the internal dynamics and reliability of the domestic circulation [3] Group 3 - The importance of a strong domestic market is highlighted as a strategic foundation for China's modernization, supported by a well-developed industrial and infrastructure system [3] - The plan includes promoting urbanization, rural revitalization, and improving living standards to stimulate investment and consumption [3] - The Central Committee's deployment for expanding high-level opening-up reflects China's confidence in open cooperation and mutual benefits, with a 4% year-on-year increase in goods trade in the first three quarters of the year [4] Group 4 - Despite challenges from unilateralism and protectionism, the commitment to high-level opening-up and the Belt and Road Initiative aims to enhance the efficiency of domestic and international market interactions [4] - Historical resilience against external risks has been a key factor in China's ability to navigate challenges, emphasizing the importance of focusing on domestic development [4]

Core Insights - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session has concluded, focusing on the formulation of the 15th Five-Year Plan, which will have profound impacts on China's and the global economy, with the capital market playing a more significant role during this period [1] Group 1: Capital Market Development - The capital market during the 15th Five-Year Plan aims to promote high-quality economic development, drive technological innovation, and enhance wealth for residents and society [2] - Reform and opening-up are identified as the two main lines for the development of China's capital market, emphasizing the importance of the capital market in economic and social development [2] - The capital market's core functions extend beyond financing to include incentive mechanisms and wealth management, which are essential for broader economic participation [2] Group 2: Market Growth Potential - The capital market is expected to grow from 100 trillion to 200 trillion yuan during the 15th Five-Year Plan, driven by a shift in asset allocation from real estate to stocks and funds [3] - The traditional economic growth model, reliant on real estate and infrastructure, is reaching its limits, necessitating a new engine based on "technology × capital" for sustainable growth [3] - Recent market trends show stock indices rising despite traditional economic data not exceeding expectations, indicating a shift in how the capital market perceives economic fundamentals [3][4] Group 3: Innovation and Risk Management - The capital market must adapt to price and underwrite innovation risks, which differ significantly from the predictable risks of the industrial era [6] - Current financial systems show weaknesses in recognizing and managing innovation risks, necessitating reforms to enhance tolerance for failure and support diverse financial and technological innovations [7] - The need for a robust mechanism to support innovation failures, such as improved bankruptcy laws and social safety nets, is emphasized to foster a more innovative environment [7] Group 4: Economic Confidence and Policy Directions - Despite external trade tensions and internal economic slowdowns, confidence in the economy and capital markets has significantly improved, driven by policy, corporate, and funding awakenings [8] - The upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan is expected to detail industry and technology policies, focusing on economic rebalancing and social security [8] - Key directions for breaking through during the 15th Five-Year Plan include adjusting performance assessments to prioritize consumption and service sectors, and reforming the fiscal system to reduce reliance on turnover taxes [9] Group 5: Internationalization and Openness - The strategic importance of "high-level opening up" has been elevated in the 15th Five-Year Plan, indicating a shift towards a more reciprocal international capital market [10] - The focus on dual-direction connectivity in capital markets aims to attract international capital while facilitating domestic enterprises' access to global markets [10] - Achieving breakthroughs in foreign investment access and optimizing listing systems could enhance China's capital market's internationalization and resource allocation efficiency [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the strategic decision made by the central government to accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, which is crucial for maintaining China's development initiative [1] - The "dual circulation" development pattern was proposed in response to the disruptions in global supply chains caused by the pandemic, highlighting the need for new development strategies [1][2] - The average contribution rate of domestic demand to economic growth is projected to reach 86.4% from 2021 to 2024, indicating a strong reliance on domestic consumption [2] Group 2 - The total import and export volume is expected to increase from 32.2 trillion yuan in 2020 to 43.8 trillion yuan in 2024, with an annual growth rate of 8.0% [2] - The focus on strengthening the domestic circulation is seen as essential for countering uncertainties in international circulation, thereby enhancing economic stability [2][3] - The strategy includes expanding domestic demand and promoting a robust domestic market, which is vital for China's modernization efforts [3] Group 3 - The commitment to high-level opening-up is reflected in the 4% year-on-year growth in goods trade in the first three quarters of the year, with exports increasing by 7.1% [4] - Despite challenges such as unilateralism and protectionism, the trend of economic globalization remains strong, and China aims to maintain its open cooperation stance [4] - The focus on domestic development as a foundation for overcoming external risks has been a consistent theme in China's economic strategy [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the strategic decision made by the Chinese government to accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, focusing on strengthening domestic circulation while optimizing the domestic and international dual circulation system [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Domestic Circulation - The average contribution rate of domestic demand to economic growth from 2021 to 2024 is projected to reach 86.4% [2]. - The total import and export volume of goods is expected to increase from 32.2 trillion yuan in 2020 to 43.8 trillion yuan in 2024, with an annual growth rate of 8.0% [2]. - The article highlights the importance of a strong domestic market as a strategic foundation for China's modernization, leveraging the vast market potential of over 1.4 billion people [3]. Group 2: Investment and Consumption - The article discusses the need to promote a virtuous cycle of investment and consumption, emphasizing the integration of improving people's livelihoods and stimulating consumption [3]. - It advocates for the construction of a unified national market to eliminate barriers and enhance market efficiency, thereby releasing the benefits of China's large-scale market [3]. Group 3: International Cooperation and Openness - The article outlines the commitment to expand high-level opening-up, despite challenges from unilateralism and protectionism, with a focus on maintaining a multilateral trade system [4]. - It notes that in the first three quarters of the year, China's goods trade imports and exports grew by 4% year-on-year, with exports increasing by 7.1% [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session in guiding China's economic and social development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, particularly through the construction of the Hainan Free Trade Port [1][3] - The construction of the Hainan Free Trade Port is a significant national strategy personally planned and promoted by General Secretary Xi Jinping, with the full island closure operation being a crucial foundational and symbolic project for further expanding openness [1][2] - The full island closure operation is described as a complex system project that requires a high level of trade liberalization and facilitation policies, necessitating a comprehensive understanding of its significance and a strong sense of responsibility [2] Group 2 - The article highlights the need for all levels of government and society to actively participate in ensuring the smooth operation of the full island closure and the expansion of high-level openness, emphasizing the importance of collaboration and responsibility [2][3] - This year marks a critical point for the Hainan Free Trade Port, coinciding with the conclusion of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the commencement of its closure operation, which is expected to contribute significantly to China's broader goals of high-level openness [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the importance of customs in promoting high-level opening-up, trade innovation, and quality development of the Belt and Road Initiative, emphasizing the need for strategic support in key industrial chains and expanding diversified markets to stabilize and enhance foreign trade [1] Group 1 - The head of the General Administration of Customs, Sun Meijun, visited Zhengzhou Customs to promote the spirit of the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session [1] - Sun Meijun emphasized the role of customs as a hub for domestic and international dual circulation, leveraging regional, resource, and market advantages in Henan [1] - The focus is on supporting the development of key industrial chains and striving for a strong performance in the fourth quarter [1] Group 2 - The customs authority aims to expand diversified markets to promote stable and quality growth in foreign trade [1] - The strategic tasks include enhancing high-level opening-up and driving innovative trade development [1] - The initiative aligns with the broader goals of the Belt and Road Initiative, aiming for high-quality construction [1]

Group 1 - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session approved the suggestions for the 15th Five-Year Plan, setting major goals and strategic deployments for national economic and social development [1][3] - The session emphasized the importance of the "two establishments" and "two safeguards," urging unity in thought and action among party members to achieve the goals outlined in the plan [1][4] - The session highlighted the significance of the 15th Five-Year Plan period as a critical phase for achieving socialist modernization, marking a new starting point for China's development [3][4] Group 2 - The session called for a focus on high-quality development, leveraging China's advantages in its political system, market size, industrial structure, and talent resources to respond to external uncertainties [4][6] - It was noted that the 15th Five-Year Plan must prioritize the new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation, particularly in fields like AI and biotechnology, to enhance innovation capabilities [6][7] - The importance of expanding high-level openness and deepening reforms was emphasized, signaling China's commitment to cooperation and mutual development with other countries [7][8] Group 3 - The session underscored the need for a high level of security as a prerequisite for high-quality development, advocating for a comprehensive approach to national security alongside economic and social development [8][10] - It was stated that achieving the goals of the 15th Five-Year Plan requires a strong commitment to the Party's leadership and the implementation of innovative theories to guide development [10][12] - The session called for unity among party members to transform the 15th Five-Year Plan into reality, emphasizing the importance of collective effort in advancing national rejuvenation [14]

Group 1 - The core message of the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session emphasizes the importance of prioritizing economic development, which is seen as a fundamental national policy since the reform and opening up, crucial for China's significant achievements over the past 40 years [1][4] - China's per capita GDP has increased over 70 times since the beginning of the reform and opening up, but it still only matches the global average, indicating challenges ahead to reach the level of developed countries by 2035 [4] - The U.S. attempts to suppress China's economic development through trade wars and other means, highlighting the importance of the central government's reaffirmation of economic construction as a guiding principle [4] Group 2 - The 20th Central Committee's Plenary Session calls for seizing the high ground in technological development, recognizing the intensifying competition in technology, especially under geopolitical tensions [5][7] - In the next five years, breakthroughs in core frontier areas of technology are expected, with artificial intelligence being a major focus, where China has made significant advancements and may have surpassed the U.S. in certain applications [7][9] - China is also leading in quantum computing and has made substantial progress in energy technologies, including nuclear fusion and advanced nuclear power, indicating a potential for explosive growth in these sectors during the 14th Five-Year Plan [11] Group 3 - China's approach to foreign trade and investment is evolving into a new phase, characterized by a "China + N" model, where global enterprises will produce in China while diversifying their production locations [13][15] - The new openness strategy includes welcoming high-quality foreign enterprises and supporting Chinese companies in expanding globally, aiming to create a synergistic industrial chain [17] - The focus remains on economic construction, technological advancement, new industrial chains, domestic markets, consumption, and improving people's livelihoods as key battlegrounds during the 14th Five-Year Plan [17]

作者丨周潇枭 编辑丨张星 党的二十大确定到2035年基本实现社会主义现代化，"十五五"时期是夯实基础、全面发力的关键时期。 10月20日至23日，中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议在北京召开，全会审议通过了《中共 中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（下文简称《建议》），明确了"十五 五"时期经济社会发展的指导方针和主要目标，擘画了未来五年发展的宏伟蓝图，为深入推进中国式现 代化指明了前进方向。 10月24日，中共中央举行新闻发布会，介绍和解读党的二十届四中全会精神。发布会邀请了中央政策研 究室主任江金权，中央财办分管日常工作的副主任、中央农办主任韩文秀，国家发展改革委党组书记、 主任郑栅洁，科技部党组书记、部长阴和俊，商务部党组书记、部长王文涛，以及国家卫生健康委党组 书记、主任雷海潮出席，介绍相关情况并答记者问。 江金权表示，《建议》即将发布。《建议》共有15个部分、61条，分为三大板块。第一板块是总论，包 括第一部分、第二部分，主要阐述"十四五"时期我国发展取得的重大成就、抓好"十五五"时期经济社会 发展的重大意义和总体要求。第二板块从第三部分到第十四部分为分论，分领域部署了" ...