Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various futures markets, including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and commodities. It suggests that investors should remain cautious in the bond market, be optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets, and consider long - positions in gold futures. For different commodities, it provides specific trading strategies based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market sentiment [6][8][11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures showed a mixed performance. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures had different price changes. The central bank conducted 530.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations on April 30, with a net injection of 422.8 billion yuan. In April, the manufacturing PMI declined, while the non - manufacturing and composite PMIs remained in the expansion zone [5]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but the current yield is relatively low. The Chinese economy shows a stable recovery trend, and there is room for domestic demand policies. Tariffs may be adjusted repeatedly, so investors are advised to remain cautious, expecting increased volatility [6][7]. Stocks - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures had different price changes [8]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: Although tariffs disrupt the domestic economic recovery rhythm and global recession risks increase, domestic asset valuations are low, and there is policy - hedging space. The report is optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets and suggests considering long - positions in stock index futures [8][9]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures prices declined. In April, the US non - farm payrolls increased, and the unemployment rate remained stable. The US GDP in the first quarter declined [10]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The complex global trade and financial environment, potential central bank policy easing, and tariff impacts are expected to drive up gold prices. The long - term bullish trend of precious metals continues, and investors are advised to buy gold futures on dips [10][11][12]. Steel and Related Products - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The real - estate downturn suppresses rebar demand, but the peak - season demand may provide short - term support. The valuation is low, and the price has support at the previous low. Investors can look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and manage positions carefully [13]. - **Iron Ore**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated. The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in supply and inventory support the price. The valuation is relatively high among black - series products, and the price has support at the previous low. Investors can look for long - buying opportunities at low levels and set stop - losses [14][15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to decline. Coking coal supply is loose, and coke demand has improved slightly, but the possibility of price increases is low. The price may test the previous low again. Investors can look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: On April 30, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures prices declined. Manganese - ore supply may be disrupted, and the supply of ferroalloys is still high while demand is weak. With the arrival of the peak season for steel demand, the supply - demand situation is improving. Investors can consider call options for manganese - silicon and exiting short - positions for silicon - iron [19][20]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil prices dropped significantly. The CFTC data shows changes in WTI crude oil and natural gas futures positions. The number of US oil and gas rigs decreased, and OPEC + agreed to increase oil supply in June. The report suggests waiting and seeing for crude oil futures [21][22][23]. - **Fuel Oil**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil prices followed crude oil and dropped significantly. The market structure of high - sulfur fuel oil has slightly improved. The possible relaxation of US sanctions on Russia and the expected signing of tariff agreements have different impacts on fuel oil prices. The report suggests short - selling fuel oil futures [23][24]. Rubber - **Synthetic Rubber**: On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures prices declined. Supply pressure persists, demand improvement is limited, and the cost has weakened. The short - term trend is expected to be weak [25][26]. - **Natural Rubber**: On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures prices showed mixed results. The expected increase in global supply and the impact of tariffs on demand are expected to keep the price in a weak oscillation [27][28]. Chemical Products - **PVC**: On the previous trading day, PVC futures prices declined. Supply pressure has eased marginally, demand is weakly recovering, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [29][30]. - **Urea**: On the previous trading day, urea futures prices increased. The approaching summer fertilizer - preparation period may increase demand, but supply elasticity is high. The potential Indian tender and domestic export - policy adjustment may affect the price. Investors should pay attention to export changes [31][32]. - **PX**: On the previous trading day, PX futures prices declined. PX device maintenance has reduced the load, and downstream PTA demand has improved. The short - term crude - oil price is under pressure, and PX is expected to oscillate with the cost [33]. - **PTA**: On the previous trading day, PTA futures prices declined. The planned maintenance of PTA devices and the expected improvement in exports may provide some support, but the external crude - oil price is under pressure. The price is expected to oscillate [34]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures prices declined. The restart of coal - based devices and high inventory limit the price rebound. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [35]. - **Short - Fiber**: On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures prices declined. The supply load is high, downstream demand is weak, and the price is expected to follow the cost and oscillate [36]. - **Bottle Chips**: On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures prices increased. The raw - material price is under pressure, and the supply - demand fundamentals lack drivers. The price is expected to follow the cost and oscillate [37]. - **Soda Ash**: On the previous trading day, soda - ash futures prices declined. Device maintenance in May may cause short - term price adjustments, but the supply is still high, and the market is weak in the short term [38][39]. - **Glass**: On the previous trading day, glass futures prices declined. The production line is at a low level, inventory changes little, and demand is weak. The post - holiday market sentiment is expected to be weak [40]. - **Caustic Soda**: On the previous trading day, caustic - soda futures prices increased. The demand from the alumina and non - alumina industries is limited, but device maintenance in May may provide some drivers [41][42]. - **Paper Pulp**: On the previous trading day, paper - pulp futures prices declined. Inventory is accumulating, supply is increasing, and market trading is light. The price reflects a pessimistic outlook [43]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On the previous trading day, lithium - carbonate futures prices declined. The supply is high, demand is weakening, and the price is expected to be weak [44][45]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper futures prices dropped significantly. Although the ICSG expects a copper supply surplus, the demand may recover after the tariff friction eases. The report suggests long - buying Shanghai copper futures [46][47]. - **Tin**: On the previous trading day, LME tin prices increased. The复产 of major mines may ease the supply shortage, but the impact of Sino - US trade on the downstream electronics market remains. The price is expected to be under pressure and oscillate weakly [48]. - **Nickel**: On the previous trading day, LME nickel prices increased. The supply of nickel ore is tightened, and the cost provides support, but the downstream acceptance of high prices is low. The demand may weaken in the off - season, and the market is expected to remain in a supply - surplus situation. Investors are advised to wait and see [49]. - **Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon**: On the previous trading day, industrial - silicon and polysilicon futures prices declined. The supply - demand imbalance persists, and the market is pessimistic about the future demand. The prices are expected to be weak [50][51]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: On April 30, soybean - meal futures prices declined, and soybean - oil futures prices increased. The smooth progress of US soybean planting and the Brazilian soybean harvest increase supply. The demand for soybean oil and soybean meal is expected to increase slightly. The report suggests waiting and seeing for soybean - meal futures and considering call options for soybean - oil futures at the bottom [52][53]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm - oil prices declined. The inventory may increase, and the domestic import volume has changed. The report suggests considering the opportunity to expand the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [54][55][56]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed prices declined. China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed products. The inventory of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil has changed. The report suggests considering long - buying rapeseed meal after a pullback [57][58]. - **Cotton**: During the holiday, the external cotton price increased. The planting progress in the US and China has been reported. The high - level tariffs between China and the US affect demand, and the domestic downstream demand is weak. The report suggests waiting and seeing [59][60][61]. - **Sugar**: During the holiday, the external raw - sugar price fluctuated slightly. Brazil is entering the production - acceleration period, and the Indian sugar production is lower than expected. The domestic sugar inventory is neutral, and the import volume is low. The report suggests waiting and seeing [62][63][64]. - **Apples**: On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures prices oscillated. The inventory is low, and the consumption is good. The new - year production is expected to increase. The report suggests waiting and seeing [66][67][68]. - **Pigs**: During the holiday, the pig price increased first and then stabilized. The supply is expected to increase after the holiday, and the demand may weaken. The price is expected to oscillate weakly first and then strengthen. The report suggests waiting and seeing [69][70][71]. - **Eggs**: During the holiday, the egg price increased slightly. The supply is expected to increase in May, and the price may decline after the Dragon Boat Festival. The report suggests holding reverse spreads [72]. - **Corn and Starch**: On April 30, corn and corn - starch futures prices increased. The US corn planting is progressing smoothly, and the Brazilian corn production is expected to increase. The domestic corn supply is under pressure in the short term, and the demand is slightly increasing. Corn - starch production and demand are weak, and the inventory is high. The report suggests waiting and seeing [73][74]. - **Logs**: On the previous trading day, log futures prices declined. The supply is affected by holidays and weather, and the demand from the real - estate sector is weak. The market has no obvious drivers, and the price is expected to be weak [75][76][77].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The USD/CNY exchange rate showed a weak and volatile trend from late April to early May, with the stage high around 7.35 and then falling back to 7.27. The offshore RMB appreciated rapidly during the May Day holiday due to multiple factors such as improved Sino - US trade expectations, a callback in the US dollar index, and a warming of market risk appetite. The US dollar index fell about 4.5% in April, a relatively large monthly decline in recent years. The implied volatility of options first rose and then fell, and the implied volatility of call options declined, making the RMB exchange rate more two - way fluctuating [4]. - In April, China's macro data weakened month - on - month but was better than expected overall, while US growth data fell short of expectations. China's manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0, indicating short - term pressure on the manufacturing industry, but the high - tech manufacturing PMI remained in the expansion range of 51.5, and the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.4, with the service industry's recovery momentum continuing. In the US, the ISM manufacturing PMI in April slipped to 48.7, and the first - quarter GDP was - 0.3%, driving the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index significantly lower; during the same period, China's CESI continued to rise and was higher than that of the US at the end of April [4]. - The Sino - US interest rate spread remained inverted, the short - end interest rate spread became more stable in its fluctuations, and more statements on trade policies brought short - term disturbances to the exchange rate. The better - than - expected non - farm payrolls in April slightly pushed up the short - end yield of US Treasuries, while the yield of Chinese government bonds remained low due to policy expectations, pushing the spread structure to stabilize at a high level. The basis and swap points of USD/CNY rose simultaneously, indicating that the market was re - evaluating the exchange rate path. Sino - US frequent statements on tariff issues from April to May, although no clear policies were implemented, strengthened the policy game signal and affected market pricing and trading behavior [5]. - The deficit in foreign exchange settlement and sales narrowed, and the capital flow improved. In March 2025, the deficit in bank foreign exchange settlement and sales dropped to $2 billion, a significant reduction from February. The willingness to settle and purchase foreign exchange in the forward market both increased, with the settlement rate of foreign exchange receipts rising to 50.51% and the purchase rate of foreign exchange payments rising to 58.88%. The surplus in banks' foreign - related payments and receipts on behalf of customers reached $49.2 billion, and the net inflow of funds under the goods trade increased 1.2 times year - on - year, still being the main supporting force. The capital account deficit narrowed to $13 billion, with foreign investors continuously net - buying RMB bonds, and the allocation of bonds and equities improved simultaneously, indicating that foreign funds' preference for RMB assets had recovered [5]. - The RMB is expected to be relatively strong in the short term, and the USD/CNY exchange rate is expected to enter a period of shock consolidation. Against the background of the callback of the US dollar index, the repair of the Sino - US expectation gap, and the warming of market risk appetite, the RMB has been relatively stable. Looking ahead, the exchange rate direction will still be comprehensively affected by Sino - US trade policies, signs of a slowdown in the US economy, and related policy expectations, and the stage - by - stage fluctuations may intensify. Short - term trend judgment still needs to closely monitor event evolution and data feedback [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. USD/CNY Exchange Rate - General Situation - From late April to early May, the USD/CNY exchange rate was generally weak and volatile, falling from a high of around 7.35 in mid - April to around 7.27 in early May, with the RMB strengthening intermittently. The offshore RMB appreciated rapidly during the May Day holiday, reflecting the combined effects of Sino - US trade easing expectations, US dollar adjustment, and a warming of market risk appetite. The US dollar index continued to decline in April, with a monthly decline of about 4.5%, one of the larger monthly declines in recent years. The decline was mainly affected by the weak economic growth in the first quarter of the US and the market's uncertain expectations about the Fed's interest - rate cut path this year [10]. 2. Volume - Price Observation - From April to early May 2025, the volatility of the USD/CNY options market generally increased, but signs of a local decline began to appear. Compared with March, the implied volatility from April to early May was generally stronger, indicating that the market's expectation of exchange - rate fluctuations had increased. However, in early May, the implied volatility of the call side of USD/CNY options declined, narrowing the gap with the put side, suggesting that the market's expectation of the US dollar's unilateral appreciation had weakened [17]. - The RMB counter - cyclical factor has been running below 10% steadily, indicating a stable exchange - rate operation. The 3 - month interest rates of offshore and onshore RMB have remained inverted, indicating a tight supply of offshore funds. However, in May, the inversion margin narrowed slightly, reflecting a marginal easing of cross - border liquidity tension [17]. - In early May, the yield of US Treasuries was generally higher than the average in April, especially at the short end, and the market's bet on the Fed's short - term policy shift has weakened. Nevertheless, the yield of 10 - year US Treasuries has fallen from the high in April, indicating that long - term interest rates are still in an adjustment channel. The yield of Chinese government bonds was weaker than last week and last quarter, and the market's expectation of further flexible adjustment of domestic policies has increased [17]. - The basis and swap points of USD/CNY generally showed an upward trend, reflecting the market's need to re - price the exchange - rate fluctuation direction in the short term under the influence of the Sino - US interest - rate spread and market risk - aversion demand. The change in the exchange - rate price is still coupled with the macro - expectation, but the directional signal is not clear, and it mainly shows structural adjustment and defensive pricing for event catalysis in the short term [18]. 3. Macroeconomic - Chinese Macroeconomic Data - In April 2025, China's economic sentiment indicators generally declined, but domestic demand, high - tech manufacturing, and the service industry maintained a certain degree of resilience. The official manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, falling back into the contraction range, indicating a phased decline in the manufacturing industry's prosperity level. However, the high - tech manufacturing PMI was 51.5%, significantly higher than the overall manufacturing level, reflecting the continued structural optimization trend [32]. - The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.4%, slightly lower than the previous month but still in the expansion range, indicating that the service and construction industries generally maintained a recovery momentum. The new order and business expectation indicators increased month - on - month, indicating an improvement in market demand and business confidence. However, the employment index remained below the critical point, indicating that the recovery of business employment was still slow. In general, the composite PMI output index in April was 50.1%, lower than the previous month, indicating that the economy generally maintained expansion but with a slowdown in momentum [32]. 4. Macroeconomic - US Macroeconomic Data - In April 2025, the US macro data presented a combination of "stable employment, declining manufacturing, and policy wait - and - see", and the market's expectation of the Fed's policy path has been adjusted. The non - farm payroll data in April showed that the US added 177,000 non - farm jobs, higher than the expected 138,000, indicating that the labor market remained resilient. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, the same as the previous value, and the labor - force participation rate rose to 62.6%, with the participation rate of the core labor - force group aged 25 - 54 reaching a seven - month high, reflecting a solid employment foundation. However, the non - farm payroll data for March and February were revised down by a total of 58,000, indicating that the previous employment growth may have been overestimated [35]. - In terms of manufacturing, the ISM manufacturing PMI in April dropped to 48.7, back into the contraction range, the largest monthly decline this year. Detailed data showed that the new order and output indicators both weakened significantly, and the employment index declined for the third consecutive month. The increase in input costs and order uncertainty caused by tariff policies are weakening enterprises' willingness to replenish inventory and expand production. The final value of the Markit manufacturing PMI was 50.2, also lower than the initial value and expectations, further verifying the lack of growth momentum in the manufacturing industry [36]. 5. RMB Three - Factor Fitting - As of early May, the Sino - US Treasury yield spread generally remained inverted. Recently, the short - end yield of US Treasuries rebounded rapidly due to better - than - expected non - farm payrolls, while the yield of Chinese government bonds remained low under the influence of policy expectations, leading to a slight stabilization after an increase in the short - end spread inversion margin [38]. - From April to early May 2025, there were more statements related to Sino - US trade policies, and the market's attention to tariff - policy changes increased. As of early May, neither side had announced a specific negotiation schedule or clear policy documents, but both had shown a willingness to communicate. The market generally believed that there was still uncertainty about the pace of policy implementation. Under this background, the external - demand sub - index of China's manufacturing industry weakened in April, and the US ISM manufacturing survey also showed that tariffs had an impact on the cost side and delivery rhythm [45][46]. - In April 2025, the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) showed an expanding difference in Sino - US macro - expectations. China's CESI rebounded and turned positive, reflecting that the domestic macro data were generally better than expected, mainly due to the improvement in high - tech manufacturing, non - manufacturing business activities, and export data, which drove the market's expectation of short - term domestic - demand repair and policy support to improve. In contrast, the US CESI fell from a high in March and continued to decline in April, falling into negative territory, mainly dragged down by lower - than - expected first - quarter GDP, weak retail, and ISM manufacturing data, indicating a significant adjustment in the market's expectation of US growth momentum [47]. 6. Capital Flows from the Perspective of Foreign - Exchange Settlement and Sales - Foreign - Exchange Market Supply - Demand Balance - The deficit in foreign - exchange settlement and sales narrowed significantly, and market expectations became more stable. In March 2025, the bank's foreign - exchange settlement was $189.6 billion, and sales were $191.6 billion, with the deficit narrowing to $2 billion from $10.4 billion in February. This change reflects the phased stabilization of the RMB exchange rate, the rationalization of enterprises' and residents' foreign - exchange purchase behavior, and the alleviation of the market's concern about the RMB's unilateral depreciation [49]. - The behavior of forward foreign - exchange settlement and sales was adjusted, and the demand for hedging increased. In March, the willingness for forward foreign - exchange settlement and sales in the market adjusted structurally. After excluding the performance factor, the settlement rate of foreign - exchange receipts increased to 50.51% month - on - month, indicating an enhanced willingness of export enterprises to lock in exchange rates. At the same time, the purchase rate of foreign - exchange payments increased to 58.88% month - on - month, indicating that enterprises actively increased their foreign - exchange purchase exposure to strengthen the hedging of US - dollar risks in the context of increasing trade and macro uncertainties [49]. - In March 2025, the bank's foreign - related income on behalf of customers was $692 billion, and payments were $642.8 billion, with a foreign - related payment - receipt surplus of $49.2 billion, further expanding from $29 billion in February. By item, the net inflow of cross - border funds under the goods trade in the first quarter reached $206.3 billion, a 1.2 - fold increase year - on - year, still being the main source of funds. The net outflow of cross - border funds in the service trade increased 25% year - on - year, with the outflow under travel increasing 12%, but the overall situation remained controllable. The stability of the cross - border payment - receipt structure has been enhanced, providing a basic support for the foreign - exchange market [50]. - The capital account deficit continued to narrow, and the deficit in March narrowed to $300 million from $13 billion in February. The securities investment account turned into a surplus, and foreign investors' willingness to allocate bonds increased significantly. Data showed that from February to March, foreign investors cumulatively net - bought $26.9 billion of domestic bonds, an 84% increase year - on - year; from April 1 to 18, they further net - bought $33.2 billion, maintaining a high - speed allocation rhythm. The allocation of equities also stabilized, indicating that foreign investors' confidence in RMB assets had recovered [52].

周一（5月5日）欧市尾盘，法国10年期国债收益率跌1.3个基点，报3.236%。 意大利10年期国债收益率跌3.3个基点，报3.603%。 西班牙10年期国债收益率跌2.2个基点，报3.168%。 希腊10年期国债收益率跌1.6个基点，报3.349%。 ...

周一（5月5日）欧市尾盘，德国10年期国债收益率下跌1.6个基点，报2.517%，日内交投于 2.534%-2.4503%区间。 两年期德债收益率跌1.0个基点，报1.752%，日内交投于1.772%-1.737%区间；30年期德债收益率涨0.2 个基点，报2.973%。 2/10年期德债收益率利差跌0.629个基点，报+76.225个基点。 英国债市休市。 ...

罗马尼亚10年期国债收益率在第一轮总统选举后上涨37个基点，报7.87%。 ...

欧元区国债收益率在美国数据公布后继续上升，德国10年期国债收益率上涨5个基点，至2.49%。 ...

美国财政部长贝森特认为，美国国债市场传递出的信号显示，美联储应该降低利率。 贝森特在接受福克斯商业频道（Fox Business）采访时称："我们看到，如今两年期国债收益率已低于联 邦基金利率。这是一个市场信号，表明市场认为美联储应该降息。" 截至纽约时间下午12点56分，两年期美国国债收益率为3.66%，而联邦基金基准利率为4.33%。目前， 美联储将关键利率目标设定在4.25%至4.5%的区间内。 萨默斯评价贝森特的观点道："如果他发表的言论可以被合理地解读为是在对美联储的政策指手画脚， 那么对于一位财政部长来说，这似乎是一个非常不寻常的选择，同时也是一个有问题的选择。" 尽管特朗普一直关注美联储的基准利率（一种隔夜利率），但贝森特表示，他和总统关注的是10年期美 国国债收益率——正如他所说，他们"紧盯收益率曲线上的这一节点"。 贝森特强调，自特朗普上任以来，10年期国债收益率已经下跌。周四，该收益率约为4.22%，而1月20 日时约为4.63%。美国国家经济委员会主任凯文・哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）在接受美国全国广播公司财 经频道（CNBC）采访时表示，10年期国债收益率的下降"为联邦政府节省 ...

"债券天王"比尔·格罗斯：4%的美国（10年期）国债收益率并没有什么问题。 ...

智通财经5月2日电，"债券天王"比尔·格罗斯称，4%的美国（10年期）国债收益率并没有什么问题。 ...

债王格罗斯：4%的美国（10年期）国债收益率并没有什么问题。 ...