Group 1 - The U.S. stock market failed to maintain its upward trend, with the S&P 500 index experiencing a sell-off at the end of August, marking the end of three consecutive weeks of gains [1] - The focus has shifted to the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data for August, which is crucial for assessing economic health and influencing Federal Reserve interest rate decisions [1] - Concerns have been raised about the potential for a new market bubble in the context of rising valuations among tech giants driven by AI investments [1][5] Group 2 - Stephen Roach, a senior researcher at Yale and former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, believes the Federal Reserve will not rush to adjust policies due to political pressure, but may adopt a more accommodative stance due to labor market weaknesses and tariff impacts [2][3] - The U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing down, with consumer spending growth at only half the average level of recent years, raising concerns about further declines in labor market and GDP [4] - The concentration of market value among the "seven giants" in the AI sector has reached approximately 35% of the S&P 500, indicating a risk level six times higher than during the peak of the 2000 internet bubble [5] Group 3 - The potential for a significant market correction in the next six months is anticipated due to the overvaluation of AI-related stocks and weak consumer demand [6][5] - If the stock market adjusts or the economy faces a major recession, the outlook for the U.S. dollar and government bonds may be negatively impacted, with a possibility of aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [7] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under threat due to political pressures, particularly from President Trump, who has expressed intentions to dismiss a Federal Reserve governor [8][9]

9月3日盘中，现货黄金一度触及3546.919美元/盎司，再创历史新高；COMEX黄金期货也一度上涨0.69%，将历史新高推 升至3616.9美元/盎司。当天，国内多家品牌足金首饰价格上破1050元/克。 一则消息引发市场关注，有报道称，世界黄金协会正计划推出"数字黄金"，这可能会改变伦敦9000亿美元的黄金实物市 场。 在A股市场上，今日黄金概念股走势分化。截至券商中国记者发稿，西部黄金、欧亚集团涨停，招金黄金涨近5%。中国 瑞林跌超6%，盛大资源、晓程科技、萃华珠宝等跌超3%。 金价继续冲高。 金价再创新高 周三，亚洲市场开盘后，现货黄金一度上涨0.4%，最高触及每盎司3546.919美元，再创新高；COMEX黄金期货一度上涨 0.69%，最高触及3616.9美元/盎司，同样创出历史新高。截至记者发稿时，国际黄金价格仍维持高位震荡。 由于对美联储前景的担忧重燃，以及发达国家预算问题推动了避险需求，金价在过去六个交易日里大涨近5%。 今年以 来，金价已上涨超三分之一，成为表现最佳的主要大宗商品之一。 过去三年内，黄金和白银价格均上涨了一倍以上，地 缘政治、经济和全球贸易领域的风险不断增加，使得市场对这类避险 ...

Core Viewpoint - Australia's second-largest pension fund, the Australian Retirement Trust (ART), has reduced its holdings in U.S. bonds due to concerns that Washington's policies may lead to inflation [1][4]. Group 1: U.S. Bond Market - The ART has expressed disappointment with U.S. bonds and has adopted a dynamic asset allocation strategy to decrease its exposure [4]. - U.S. Treasury yields have risen, with the 10-year yield increasing by 7 basis points to 4.2984% and the 30-year yield rising by 6.7 basis points to 4.9883% [3][8]. - Concerns about the U.S. fiscal deficit and the impact of the Trump administration's trade policies are contributing to inflationary pressures [4][5]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Hedge funds have remained cautious regarding U.S. equities, continuing to sell rather than participate in the market's recent gains [3][6]. - The market sentiment is reflected in the performance of major U.S. indices, which saw declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.55% and the Nasdaq down 0.82% [3]. - There is a growing trend among large institutions, including pension funds in Asia, to reassess their holdings in U.S. assets due to concerns over the U.S. credit rating and the independence of the Federal Reserve [5][6]. Group 3: Global Bond Market - Long-term bond yields are rising globally, with the U.K. 30-year yield reaching its highest level since 1998 at 5.69% and the French 30-year yield surpassing 4.50% for the first time since 2011 [8]. - The rising yields in other markets indicate potential vulnerabilities that could impact global financial stability [7][9]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - Historical data shows that nearly half of the years in the past 20 have seen negative returns for the U.S. stock market in September, raising concerns about market performance [7]. - The current high levels of stock ownership relative to disposable income among U.S. investors could signal potential risks if economic growth slows significantly [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fundamental changes in globalization and political dynamics that are forcing developed economies to rely more on fiscal measures for economic adjustment, leading to increased political resistance, a gradual loss of fiscal discipline, and a subservient monetary policy, which in turn raises the risk premium for global long-term bonds [2][4]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy Framework Changes - The 2025 Jackson Hole meeting is seen as a pivotal moment, potentially marking the beginning of the end for Federal Reserve independence, as external political pressures influence monetary policy decisions [4][5]. - The shift in monetary policy framework is strategically used to provide a long-term rationale for short-term dovish turns, making policy changes appear more legitimate and less arbitrary [6][8]. - Historical lessons emphasize the importance of central bank independence, with past political pressures leading to significant economic consequences, such as the inflation crisis of the 1970s [6][8]. Political Pressure on the Federal Reserve - The Trump administration employed a multi-layered strategy to pressure the Federal Reserve into lowering interest rates, including public attacks on Chairman Powell and threats of dismissal [12][13]. - This public humiliation created a hostile political environment, challenging the legitimacy of the Fed's decision-making [14]. - The administration also sought to exploit administrative issues, such as the renovation of the Fed's headquarters, to undermine Powell's authority and create grounds for dismissal [15][18]. New Macroeconomic Paradigm - A shift towards a "big fiscal era" is occurring, where fiscal policy is becoming the primary tool for economic management, while monetary policy is relegated to a secondary role [22][23]. - The effectiveness of monetary policy is diminishing in the face of supply-side shocks, with fiscal measures increasingly driving economic outcomes [24]. - Powell's compliance with political pressures reflects a broader trend where the Fed's independence is compromised, making it more responsive to political dynamics [23][24]. Global Market Outlook - The market has largely priced in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September, but this may only be the beginning of a series of cuts, with potential for a total of 75 basis points within the year [27][29]. - The dual nature of the upcoming rate cuts serves both preventive and responsive purposes, addressing economic slowdown while also providing liquidity to the market [27][29]. - The implications of these cuts present both opportunities and risks for the stock market, as liquidity expansion may support valuations, but also highlight underlying economic weaknesses [29][32].

Group 1 - Australian Retirement Trust (ART) has reduced its holdings in US bonds due to concerns over potential inflation driven by Washington's policies [1][2] - ART's senior portfolio manager, Jimmy Louca, indicated that other markets like the UK and Australia currently offer better investment value [2] - The trend of moving away from US bonds is part of a broader reassessment by large institutions in Asia, influenced by concerns over US credit ratings and the independence of the Federal Reserve [2] Group 2 - US Treasury yields have been rising, with the 30-year yield approaching 5% and the 10-year yield increasing to 4.2984% [1][6] - Hedge funds have shown caution towards US equities, not participating in the market's rise in August and continuing to sell off [1][4] - Historical data indicates that September is typically a weak month for US stocks, with hedge funds remaining hesitant to buy into the market despite potential interest rate cuts [3][5] Group 3 - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have intensified following President Trump's attempts to influence its leadership, leading to increased risk aversion among foreign investors [3] - The yield spread between 5-year and 30-year US Treasuries has widened to its highest level since 2021, reflecting market apprehension [3] - Global bond yields are rising, with the UK and France also seeing significant increases, indicating potential vulnerabilities in other markets [6]

美债被看空！ 日前，澳大利亚第二大养老基金透露，已减持美国债券，主要是担心华盛顿的政策可能引发通胀。该基金管理着3300亿澳元（2160亿美元）的资产。 当地时间9月2日，美国国债跌势扩大，30年期国债收益率逼近5%。截至记者发稿，美国10年期国债收益率上涨7个基点至4.2984%；30年期国债收益率上涨6.7个 基点至4.9883%。 与此同时，对冲基金对美股也保持谨慎。有数据显示，对冲基金并未参与美股8月的上涨，反而持续卖出。 周二，美股三大指数集体下跌，纳指盘中一度跌近2%。截至收盘，道指跌0.55%，纳指跌0.82%，标普500指数跌0.69%。大型科技股多数下跌，英伟达跌 近2%，亚马逊、苹果、特斯拉跌超1%。中国资产逆市上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨0.52%，理想汽车涨超4%，蔚来涨超3%，阿里巴巴涨2.63%。 卖出美债 澳大利亚第二大养老基金——澳大利亚退休信托基金（ART）对美国国债的看法日益悲观。近日，该基金的高级投资组合经理Jimmy Louca接受采访时表示，该公 司通过动态资产配置策略减持了美国债券。 据彭博社消息，Louca表示，英国和澳大利亚等其他市场目前更具投资价值。他补充称 ...

美债被看空！ 日前，澳大利亚第二大养老基金透露，已减持美国债券，主要是担心华盛顿的政策可能引发通胀。该基 金管理着3300亿澳元（2160亿美元）的资产。 当地时间9月2日，美国国债跌势扩大，30年期国债收益率逼近5%。截至记者发稿，美国10年期国债收 益率上涨7个基点至4.2984%；30年期国债收益率上涨6.7个基点至4.9883%。 与此同时，对冲基金对美股也保持谨慎。有数据显示，对冲基金并未参与美股8月的上涨，反而持续卖 出。 周二，美股三大指数集体下跌，纳指盘中一度跌近2%。截至收盘，道指跌0.55%，纳指跌0.82%，标普 500指数跌0.69%。大型科技股多数下跌，英伟达跌近2%，亚马逊、苹果、特斯拉跌超1%。中国资产逆 市上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨0.52%，理想汽车涨超4%，蔚来涨超3%，阿里巴巴涨2.63%。 卖出美债 澳大利亚第二大养老基金——澳大利亚退休信托基金（ART）对美国国债的看法日益悲观。近日，该基 金的高级投资组合经理Jimmy Louca接受采访时表示，该公司通过动态资产配置策略减持了美国债券。 据彭博社消息，Louca表示，英国和澳大利亚等其他市场目前更具投资价值。他 ...

Market Insights - President Trump plans to appeal the global tariff ruling to the U.S. Supreme Court, citing an economic emergency in the U.S. He warns that a potential loss could lead to unprecedented market shocks [1] - Nearly 600 economists signed an open letter warning that the potential dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook could threaten the independence of the Fed and erode trust in the U.S. financial system [1] - The ISM manufacturing index for August rose slightly to 48.7 but remains below the market expectation of 49, marking the sixth consecutive month below the neutral line [3] Economic Indicators - Japan's CPI for August increased by 1.7%, with the growth rate narrowing by 0.4 percentage points, the lowest since November of the previous year [4] - Eurozone's CPI for August rose by 2.1% year-on-year, while core CPI slightly decreased to 2.3%. Service prices saw a notable slowdown, increasing by 3.1% [3] Global Market Dynamics - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.55% to 45,295.81 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite dropped by 0.69% and 0.82%, respectively [5] - Gold futures on COMEX rose by 1.51% to $3,599.5 per ounce, reaching a historical high [5] - U.S. oil futures increased by 1.56% to $65.62 per barrel, and Brent crude rose by 1.39% to $69.10 per barrel [6] Bond Market - The yield on 30-year German bonds reached its highest level since 2011, while French 30-year bond yields hit a new high since 2009 [7] - U.S. Treasury yields increased across various maturities, with the 10-year yield rising by 3.50 basis points to 4.260% [7] Currency Movements - The U.S. Dollar Index rose by 0.66% to 98.32, with the Euro and British Pound both declining against the dollar [8]

Market Overview - Following the end of the three-day "Labor Day" holiday, major institutions are preparing for increased market volatility as the VIX index rose over 11% on Tuesday after a more than 6% increase on Friday [1] - The upcoming non-farm payroll data release is expected to further influence market volatility, with rising risk aversion leading to increased demand for gold [1][9] - Historically, September is the worst-performing month for U.S. and global stock markets, with concerns over Trump's potential threats to the Federal Reserve's independence and uncertainty surrounding his tariff policies contributing to market declines [1][2] Economic Indicators - The VIX index has reached its highest level in over a month, reflecting heightened investor anxiety regarding trade policies and upcoming economic data [9][10] - Long-term U.S. Treasury yields have surged, with the 10-year yield rising nearly 5 basis points to 4.269% and the 30-year yield approaching 5%, indicating pressure on stock valuations [3][4][6] Trade Policy Concerns - Doubts about the legality of Trump's tariffs have intensified market fears of potential global trade disruptions and increased budget deficits, leading to a sell-off in stocks and bonds [2][3] - The recent court ruling against Trump's tariffs has raised concerns about the future of U.S. trade negotiations and the potential for increased budget deficit anxiety [10] Non-Farm Payroll Data - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is critical for assessing the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts, with expectations of job growth below 100,000 for the fourth consecutive month [8][11] - Economists predict that the August non-farm payroll will show an increase of only 75,000 jobs, marking the weakest employment data since 2020 [10][11] Investment Strategies - Investors are seeking alternative assets to protect their portfolios amid market turbulence, with gold reaching a historical high of approximately $3,540 per ounce [9] - The rise in long-term bond yields is seen as a key level that could sway stock market demand, with a 10-year yield around 4.5% being a critical threshold [4][6]

Group 1: Gold Market - Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Cook raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, potentially undermining public trust in the institution [2] - The ISM Manufacturing PMI for August recorded at 48.7, below the expected 49, indicating a continued contraction in the manufacturing sector for six consecutive months [2] - Concerns over the Fed's independence are benefiting gold prices, which have seen a strong upward trend, surpassing $3,500 [2] Group 2: Oil Market - Bridgewater founder Dalio warns of an impending debt crisis in the U.S. due to excessive spending, with total U.S. debt reaching $37.3 trillion and interest payments exceeding $1 trillion [4] - The price of Russian Urals crude oil is $3-4 cheaper than Brent, making it more attractive for India despite a temporary reduction in imports [4] - Oil prices have been fluctuating between $62 and $65 since mid-August, with a recent short-term breakout above $65 [5] Group 3: Copper Market - Copper prices experienced a significant drop at the end of July but have since stabilized between $4.32 and $4.50, recently breaking above the $4.50 resistance level [7] Group 4: Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index is showing a weak downward trend, with strong support around the 41,800 level; a breakout above 42,400 could signal a return to an upward trend [8]