Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's threats to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, highlighting the ongoing tension between the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate policies and fiscal strategies [2][4]. Group 1: Trump's Pressure on the Federal Reserve - Trump has repeatedly pressured the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, expressing dissatisfaction with the Fed's monetary policy not aligning with his "big fiscal" plans [2]. - The "Big Beautiful Plan" passed on July 4 is expected to increase federal debt by $4.1 trillion over the next decade, potentially rising to $5.5 trillion if temporary tax cuts are made permanent [2]. - The projected deficit rate during Trump's second term could remain around 6.5%-7%, with the Treasury expected to issue approximately $1.2 trillion in net debt in Q3, leading to potential liquidity tightening [2]. Group 2: Mechanism of Dismissing the Fed Chair - The rules regarding the dismissal of the Federal Reserve Chairman by the President are ambiguous, with the Chairman serving a 4-year term but as a board member for 14 years [4]. - Historical instances show that while four Fed Chairs have resigned under political pressure, there has been no direct dismissal by a President [4]. - The Supreme Court has affirmed the Fed's unique structure and independence, indicating that the President cannot dismiss the Chairman due to policy disagreements [4]. Group 3: Historical Challenges to Fed Independence - The Fed's independence has faced significant challenges historically, notably during the Great Depression and the Nixon administration, where political pressures led to a loss of monetary policy control [6]. - The article notes that during periods of fiscal dominance, such as the 60s and 70s, the Fed's independence was notably weakened, with higher inflation tolerated under political pressure [6]. Group 4: Implications of Potential Fed Chair Departure - If the Fed Chair were to leave early, it could negatively impact the dollar and positively affect gold prices, with historical precedents showing a weakening dollar and rising gold prices following similar events [8]. - The article suggests that if the current Fed Chair completes their term, the anticipated issuance of $1.2 trillion in debt could still lead to liquidity pressures, prompting the Fed to restart quantitative easing, benefiting both the stock market and gold [8].

Group 1: Legislative Developments - The GENIUS Act was passed with a vote of 308 in favor and 122 against, indicating bipartisan support with 102 Democrats voting for it and 12 Republicans against it [1] - The Senate had previously approved the same bill in mid-June [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - Federal Reserve officials are signaling a "hawkish" stance, with Governor Adrianne Kugler suggesting that interest rates should remain unchanged for some time due to the impact of tariffs on consumer prices [4][6] - New York Fed President John Williams stated that the current monetary policy is in the "right place" and warned against complacency regarding the effects of increased tariffs on inflation [8][10] - Kugler noted that inflation remains above the Federal Open Market Committee's 2% target, with upward pressure from tariffs, and predicted additional price increases later in the year [6][8] Group 3: Federal Reserve Independence and Leadership - Powell defended the Federal Reserve's independence in response to criticisms regarding its financial management and policy independence [3] - Potential Fed chair candidate Kevin Walsh expressed that the Fed is facing a "credibility crisis" and criticized Powell's leadership, suggesting that the Fed should not overly worry about inflation from tariffs [11][13] - Morgan Stanley's report indicated that regardless of whether Powell is dismissed, the market is already pricing in the policy direction of the next Fed chair [15][17] Group 4: Market Reactions and Predictions - Analysts predict that the discussion around loose monetary policy will intensify, contributing to a positive sentiment in the stock market [19] - The current situation is compared to historical conflicts between the White House and the Fed, suggesting a recurring theme of political pressure on monetary policy [16][17]

当地时间7月17日，针对特朗普政府高级官员指控美联储总部翻修"奢华浪费"，美联储主席鲍威尔以书 面方式逐条回应，强调工程自2017年获批以来始终接受严格监督。鲍威尔在回信中强调，美联储总部及 附属建筑存在严重结构老化问题，需更换含石棉、铅的材料，并全面更新电力、供暖、消防等系统。他 还指出，项目修改过设计以降低成本和避免延误，不涉及重大变更，因此未重新提交审议。鲍威尔明确 表示，美联储并不隶属于国家首都规划委员会(NCPC)，而是"自愿协作"，其工程监督权归属于董事会 与内部监察机构。他的声明意在捍卫美联储独立性，并回应外界对其财政管理和政策独立性的质疑。今 年以来，特朗普多次批评鲍威尔并威胁解雇其美联储主席职务，以此施压美联储降息。近期，特朗普政 府又频繁提及美联储花费25亿美元翻修办公大楼且"成本超支"一事，对鲍威尔"加码逼宫"。(央视新闻) ...

Group 1 - The inheritance dispute within the Wahaha family has escalated following the death of founder Zong Qinghou, with multiple illegitimate children involved in lawsuits over asset inheritance [2] - The U.S. stock market saw gains, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 reaching new highs, driven by strong corporate earnings and positive retail sales data [2] - Foreign investment sentiment towards A-shares is optimistic, with sectors like computing power, innovative pharmaceuticals, and military industry showing significant growth [2] Group 2 - Global silver prices have surged, reaching over $39 per ounce, driven by both safe-haven demand and industrial needs, with optimism surrounding economic recovery and the development of the new energy sector [3] - The U.S. cryptocurrency legislation is facing challenges, with market volatility affecting related stocks and Bitcoin prices amid ongoing legislative discussions [3] - JPMorgan's analyst suggests that the independence of the Federal Reserve is a "false proposition," indicating potential market impacts from political pressures and interest rate expectations [3] Group 3 - China Merchants Bank's analyst predicts that the RMB is likely to stabilize and trend upwards in the second half of the year, while gold prices may reach new highs due to the influence of U.S. policies [4] - The "Haihui International" pyramid scheme has seen the arrest of a key suspect, with involved funds exceeding 10 billion yuan and illegal profits over 5 billion yuan [5] - The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China is involved in a significant case regarding missing deposits, with evidence exchange occurring ahead of court proceedings [5] - A divorce case involving Zhongheng Co. resulted in the transfer of shares valued at 500 million yuan to the female party, although company control remains unaffected [5]

2025.07. 17 本文字数：2020，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 冯迪凡 美国总统特朗普对美联储主席鲍威尔的持续施压再次引发市场动荡，并引发人们对未来会发生什么的 各种猜测。 可以肯定的是，若成真，此举在美国历史上尚属首次，可能会引发具有里程碑意义的诉讼，该诉讼将 牵动白宫和华尔街。 当地时间16日，有报道称特朗普预计将很快对鲍威尔采取行动，后者因未听从其降低利率的呼吁而 成为特朗普的攻击目标。 不过，特朗普对这些报道予以反驳，称鲍威尔的解职"极不可能，除非他因'欺诈'而不得不离开"。 此言暗指美联储总部翻新工程的成本超支问题。特朗普及其盟友一直将此作为解雇鲍威尔的依据之 一。 根据《联邦储备法》第10条，美联储理事会成员可以"因故"被解职。 而成本超支是否构成此类不当行为，将是法院需要裁决的新问题。 英国杜伦大学法学院副院长、跨国法教授兼全球政策研究所联合主任杜明教授对第一财经记者表示， 所谓"因故"这类条款的设立，主要目的是保护美联储职位的独立性，不能行政部门看美联储官员不 满意就能任意解雇，而"因故"可以届时由法院再从严解释，例如滥用职权或贪赃枉法等。 届时，本着"谁主张，谁举证原则" ...

"历史告诉我们，货币政策执行的独立运作是必要的，"沃什周四接受CNBC采访时强调，"但这并不意味着美联储在所有事务上都应保持独立。" 特朗普正在考虑明年5月鲍威尔任期结束后提名新主席人选，而沃什的立场转变恰逢特朗普施压美联储降息的声浪达到顶峰。 SHMET 网讯： 美联储前理事凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）近日公开表示，美联储的独立性对货币政策实施"至关重要"，但他同时指出，在鲍威尔领导下，美联储已越权涉足 其缺乏权威的政策领域。 实战考验 2006年，35岁的沃什被小布什任命为美联储史上最年轻理事。金融危机期间，他协助促成富国银行收购美联银行，并主导了2008年秋季向九大银行注资数千 亿美元的计划。 芝加哥大学教授兰德尔·克罗兹纳（Randall Kroszner）评价："那是动荡时期，沃什经历了实战考验。" 如今，沃什主张对美联储进行彻底改革。他在福克斯新闻上呼吁："我们需要的是美联储的政权更迭，这不只关乎主席人选，而是需要更换一批人。必须打 破固有思维，因为现行模式已经失效。" 他批评美联储的经济预测模型过时、忽视货币供应量作用，且政策沟通过于频繁且短视。 美国银行指出，26%的人认为美国财长贝森 ...

Group 1 - Kevin Warsh emphasizes the importance of the Federal Reserve's independence but notes its limited scope under Jerome Powell's leadership, suggesting that the Fed has ventured into policy areas beyond its authority [1][2] - Warsh argues that maintaining independence does not conflict with the need for immediate interest rate cuts, asserting that the Fed should not overly worry about tariffs leading to persistent inflation [1][2] - The concept of a "shadow Fed chair" was introduced by current U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Basset, aimed at allowing Warsh to influence monetary policy communication during Powell's remaining term, thereby reducing Powell's influence [2] Group 2 - Warsh criticizes Powell's Fed for being overly concerned about potential inflation from tariffs, claiming that the inflationary impact of tariffs is likely to be temporary rather than persistent [3] - He asserts that if the Fed were a credible central bank, it could disregard one-time price changes, and he views the Fed's hesitance to cut rates as a blemish on its credibility [3] - Warsh supports Trump's public pressure on the Fed's monetary policy, indicating that the current hesitation among policymakers to lower rates is eroding the Fed's credibility [3]

Core Viewpoint - The perception that the Federal Reserve operates independently of political pressure is described as a "false proposition," suggesting that market expectations of interest rate cuts may lead to a continued rise in the U.S. stock market [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Market Dynamics - As the term of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell approaches its end, investors are expected to focus on the policies of the next Fed chair [1] - Market volatility is anticipated to increase due to uncertainties related to tariffs, inflation, and the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to maintain long positions in the S&P 500 index and the VIX index, betting on increased allocations to high-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies and artificial intelligence [1]

Core Viewpoint - The independence of the Federal Reserve is facing unprecedented challenges, particularly due to Trump's ongoing pressure on Powell, leading to a reassessment of the central bank's policy outlook in the market. However, JPMorgan believes that there is no need for excessive concern [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - Political pressure on the Federal Reserve is not a new phenomenon, and its independence is described as a "myth" by JPMorgan's Ilan Benhamou, who notes that such situations have been occurring behind closed doors for decades [3]. - Historical precedents, such as President Johnson's conflict with former Fed Chairman Bill Martin in 1965, illustrate the ongoing tension between political figures and the Fed [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - JPMorgan suggests continuing to invest in the S&P 500 and VIX indices, anticipating that investors will increasingly allocate funds to risk assets like cryptocurrencies and artificial intelligence, while uncertainties regarding tariffs, inflation, and Fed policies will heighten market volatility [2]. - As Powell's term nears its end, investors are expected to focus on the policy inclinations of the next Fed chair, with a growing dovish sentiment likely to support further gains in the stock market under expectations of interest rate cuts [4]. Group 3: Legal Implications of Dismissal - If Trump were to dismiss Powell, it would be a historic first in the U.S., likely resulting in a landmark lawsuit that could ultimately require a Supreme Court ruling [5]. - The Federal Reserve Act allows for the removal of board members, including the chair, "for cause," and Trump has suggested potential reasons for dismissal related to the Fed's renovation costs [6]. Group 4: Supreme Court's Position - The Supreme Court previously indicated that Trump cannot dismiss Powell without cause, recognizing the Fed as a "structurally unique quasi-private entity," but left open the possibility for "for cause" dismissals [7]. - Legal experts suggest that even if the court finds the dismissal unlawful, it remains uncertain whether Powell could retain his position, given the court's limitations on providing "equitable relief" for high-ranking officials [7].

法国兴业银行全球经济与跨资产研究主管表示，"央行的最大资产是公信力，若因撤换掌门人而受损，市场反应将极其负面，""这将引发显著波动"，并称继 任者猜测会进一步加剧美债和美元震荡。 周三美债剧烈震荡，因有报道称特朗普拟解雇鲍威尔，短债一度因降息预期升温而上涨，随后特朗普表态暂无撤换计划。尽管特朗普今年多次批评鲍威尔， 但此次事态升级令投资者担忧央行可能面临政治干预。 智通财经APP注意到，美国国债价格下跌，因市场正消化总统特朗普最新抨击美联储主席鲍威尔引发的冲击波。周四美债收益率曲线全线上扬，10年期国债 收益率微升1个基点至4.47%，30年期国债收益率仍维持在5%上方。 特朗普虽称"极不可能"解雇鲍威尔，但仍持续施压，重申美联储维持利率过高，并拒绝"排除任何可能性"。 华尔街三大行高管均强调美联储自主权至关重要。但利率决策需联邦公开市场委员会多数支持，新任主席需说服同僚支持降息。最新点阵图显示官员对年内 降息路径仍存分歧，主因对特朗普关税影响通胀的看法不一。 本哈穆表示，"我不认为鲍威尔真的会被解雇，但这在目前来说真的无关紧要，因为市场很快就会意识到他被人为地排除在外，并开始预测下一任主席会怎 么做，""无 ...