Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Basset stated that there are currently 11 "very strong" candidates for the position of Federal Reserve Chairman, and interviews will begin next month [1] Candidate Selection Process - Basset mentioned that the candidates will also be interviewed by other White House officials, with three to four candidates expected to be recommended to President Trump [1] - He indicated that Trump is aware of some, but not all, of the 11 candidates [1] Timeline for Announcement - The selection of the new Federal Reserve Chairman is expected to be revealed in the fall of this year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Basset stated that there are currently 11 "very strong" candidates for the position of Federal Reserve Chairman, with interviews set to begin next month [1] Group 1 - The candidates will also undergo interviews with other White House officials, and three to four of them will be recommended to President Trump [1] - Basset mentioned that Trump is aware of some, but not all, of the 11 candidates [1] - The announcement of the new Federal Reserve Chairman is "certainly" expected to be made this fall [1]

钛媒体App 8月27日消息，据报道，美国财长贝森特表示，将向特朗普推荐3-4位美联储主席候选 人，"肯定"会在秋季知道特朗普选择的美联储主席。（广角观察） ...

Core Viewpoint - Trump is expected to announce his decision regarding the Federal Reserve Chair nominee in the fall [1] Group 1 - The announcement is anticipated to have significant implications for monetary policy and financial markets [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicate that two members opposed the decision to maintain the interest rate at 4.25%-4.5% during the July 31 meeting [1] - Former President Trump has been vocal against the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged, expressing dissatisfaction with the current chair, Jerome Powell [2] - The meeting minutes reflect a pessimistic outlook on the U.S. macroeconomic situation, with high inflation preventing the Fed from hastily resuming rate cuts [4] Group 2 - The committee noted a slowdown in economic activity growth in the first half of the year, while the unemployment rate remained low and the labor market was considered robust [3] - However, the August non-farm payroll report showed a surprising increase in the unemployment rate by 0.1 percentage points, with only 73,000 jobs added, contradicting the earlier assessment of a stable labor market [3] - Trump's strategy appears to target Fed officials who support maintaining rates, potentially to intimidate others into favoring rate cuts without changing the Fed chair [2]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump is considering 11 candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair, indicating potential shifts in monetary policy leadership [2] Candidate Summary - Candidates include David Zervos from Jefferies and Rick Rieder from BlackRock, among others [2] - Other notable candidates are former Fed Governor Larry Lindsey, Bowman, Bullard, Hassett, Jefferson, Logan, Sumerlin, Waller, and Warsh [2] Current Fed Chair Context - Current Fed Chair Jerome Powell's term ends in May 2026, and Trump has repeatedly called for Powell to resign [2] - Previous candidates considered by Trump include Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, and Fed Governor Christopher Waller [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Federal Reserve may begin a series of interest rate cuts sooner than expected, with a significant possibility of a 50 basis point cut in September [2][3] - Current models suggest that the Federal Reserve's interest rates should be 150 to 175 basis points lower than the current levels [3] - There is an ongoing evaluation of candidates for the Federal Reserve chair position, with a wide net being cast for potential nominees, including both public and private sector individuals [5] Group 2 - The U.S. Treasury is considering changes in its approach to debt issuance, including the issuance of short-term Treasury bills to supplement fiscal cash [7] - The overall yield curve in the U.S. may shift downward, reflecting the credibility of the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve, with a noted decline in the 10-year Treasury yield [6] - There is a push for legislation regarding a single stock trading ban, with current proposals being described as not "perfect" and extending to the Treasury [8]

格隆汇8月13日｜巴克莱银行公共政策高级研究分析师迈克尔·麦克莱恩指出，特朗普提名接替库格勒的 斯蒂芬·米兰可能成为下一任美联储主席的黑马人选。如果得到参议院的批准，米兰可能会在任期届满 后无限期留任。特朗普本可以让库格勒的席位空缺，但他却选择迅速提名米兰，这显然在为其铺路。米 兰深得特朗普信任，始终坚定支持总统及其政策。此外，包括格林斯潘、伯南克和耶伦在内的多位前美 联储主席，都曾担任过白宫经济顾问委员会主席。而且与其他候选人相比，米兰将拥有货币政策发言权 和FOMC投票权这些优势。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Fundamentally, zinc ore imports at home and abroad are increasing, zinc ore processing fees are rising, and the sulfuric acid price has increased significantly. This has further repaired smelters' profits, increasing their production enthusiasm. New production capacities are being released, and previously overhauled capacities are resuming production, leading to a faster increase in supply. Currently, import losses are expanding, and the inflow of imported zinc is decreasing. On the demand side, the downstream is in the off - season, and the operating rate of processing enterprises has decreased year - on - year. Recently, zinc prices have fallen, and downstream buyers are purchasing on - demand at low prices, but overall trading remains dull. Domestic social inventories continue to accumulate, and spot premiums are falling. Overseas, LME inventories have decreased significantly, and the strong LME zinc price has driven up domestic zinc prices. Technically, with increasing positions and rising prices, the bullish sentiment is strong. Attention should be paid to the resistance at the 23,000 mark. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract is 22,630 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the 09 - 10 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is - 20 yuan/ton, unchanged. The LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,808 US dollars/ton, down 26 US dollars. The total position of Shanghai zinc is 211,490 lots, down 2,088 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 9,902 lots, up 823 lots. Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 15,768 tons, up 274 tons. The SHFE inventory is 65,917 tons, up 4,193 tons; the LME inventory is 80,425 tons, down 1,075 tons [3]. 3.2. Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,500 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,380 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan. The basis of the main ZN contract is - 130 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 3.58 US dollars/ton, down 3.35 US dollars. The factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,190 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,900 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3. Upstream Situation - According to WBMS, the monthly zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; according to ILZSG, it is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons. The global zinc ore production in the current month is 1.0075 million tons, down 4,300 tons. The domestic refined zinc production in the current month is 628,000 tons, up 45,000 tons. The zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3]. 3.4. Industry Situation - The monthly refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the monthly refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons. The weekly zinc social inventory is 91,200 tons, up 3,900 tons [3]. 3.5. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons. The monthly new housing construction area is 303.6432 million square meters, up 71.8071 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 225.6661 million square meters, up 41.8147 million square meters. The monthly automobile production is 2.8086 million vehicles, up 166,600 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3]. 3.6. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 14.3%, up 0.61%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 14.3%, up 0.61%. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 7.69%, up 0.01%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 13.21%, down 0.06% [3]. 3.7. Industry News - Trump's team is expanding the scope of candidates for the Fed Chair. The White House is expected to announce the candidate this fall. In July, China's automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 13.3% and 14.7%. Among them, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.243 million and 1.262 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 26.3% and 27.4%. New energy vehicle exports were 225,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 1.2 times [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report suggests going long with a light position, with a reference range of 267,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton. The macro - situation shows that in July, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year, and new energy vehicle production, sales, and exports also had significant growth. Fundamentally, although Myanmar's Wa State has restarted mining license approvals, actual ore output will not occur until the fourth quarter; the Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages, and tin ore processing fees remain at historically low levels. On the smelting side, production in July increased due to multiple factors, but raw material shortages in Yunnan are still severe, and the scrap recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure. On the demand side, after the end of the photovoltaic industry's rush to install, the operating rate of some producers decreased; the electronics industry entered the off - season, and the US plans to impose tariffs on semiconductors. High prices have suppressed downstream enterprises' willingness to replenish inventory, and holders are reluctant to sell. The spot premium remains at 400 yuan/ton, and domestic inventory is stable. Technically, increasing positions and rising prices indicate a warming bullish atmosphere, and attention should be paid to the M10 support level [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 270,200 yuan/ton, up 1,820 yuan; the closing price of the September - October contract of Shanghai Tin is - 200 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The LME 3 - month tin price is 33,715 US dollars/ton, up 110 US dollars. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai Tin is 26,525 lots, up 2,247 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai Tin is - 129 lots, down 117 lots. The total LME tin inventory is 1,750 tons, up 40 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's tin inventory is 7,805 tons, up 134 tons. The LME tin cancelled warrants are 260 tons, down 60 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's tin warehouse receipts are 7,397 tons, up 71 tons [3] 现货市场 - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 270,600 yuan/ton, up 2,600 yuan. The Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 270,820 yuan/ton, up 2,960 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is 400 yuan/ton, up 780 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 47.99 US dollars/ton, up 22.01 US dollars [3] Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 12,100 tons, down 2,900 tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 256,000 - 260,000 yuan/ton, up 3,400 yuan. The average processing fee of 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 175,800 yuan/ton, up 2,010 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.6014 million tons, up 144,500 tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [3] Industry News - The Trump team is expanding the scope of candidates for the Fed Chair, and the White House is expected to announce the candidate this fall. In July, China's automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 13.3% and 14.7%. New energy vehicle production and sales were 1.243 million and 1.262 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 26.3% and 27.4%, and exports were 225,000 vehicles, a 1.2 - fold year - on - year increase [3]