阿布扎比第一银行分析师在一份报告中称，未来几个月，美国利率前景以及美联储联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC)的人员构成前景将因政治干预而变得更加复杂。一旦美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell) 的任期在5月份结束，美国总统特朗普可能希望用一位坚定的鸽派人士取而代之——国家经济委员会主 任凯文·哈塞特似乎是他青睐的人选。阿布扎比第一银行的分析师表示，希望"常识将占上风"，且下一 任美联储主席的任命将基于其经济才能，而非政治立场。 来源：滚动播报 ...

美联储周四提前完成地方联储主席连任投票，消除了特朗普盟友可能阻挠这些央行官员留任的担忧，此 举确保了联储系统内最强鹰派声音的延续。 美联储理事会表示，已批准11名有意留任的地方联储主席连任决定。这一每五年举行的投票原定于2月 底前完成，但提前实施反映出对潜在政治干预的防范。 地方联储主席们近期展现出明显的鹰派立场。芝加哥联储主席Austan Goolsbee和堪萨斯城联储主席 Jeffrey Schmid在周三降息决议中投出反对票，另有四名官员通过点阵图表达了对维持更高利率水平的 偏好。 另有四名官员通过点阵图显示，他们认为借贷成本应维持在10月设定的3.75%-4%区间。分析师指出， 其中两人很可能是克利夫兰联储主席Beth Hammack和达拉斯联储主席Lorie Logan，两人将从1月起获得 货币政策投票权。 这种鹰派立场与特朗普及其经济顾问呼吁央行大幅降息的主张形成鲜明对比。地方联储主席们持续警告 通胀上升的风险，成为抵制过度宽松政策的重要力量。 政治干预担忧促成提前决定 虽然地方联储主席连任程序历来很少引起关注，但特朗普对美联储的敌对态度引发了外界对政治干预的 担忧。此次提前完成连任投票，被视为防 ...

北京时间12月11号凌晨，美联储宣布降息25个基点，降息后联邦基金利率在3.50%到3.75%这个区间。这已经是今年第三次降息了，年内总共降了75个基 点，也是从去年9月开始算起的第六次降息。这次降息大家其实早有预料，但特朗普还是不满意，公开批评说降得太少了，要求至少得降两倍才行。 为啥美联储要降息呢？说白了，就是美国经济现在有点复杂，用"冰火两重天"来形容挺合适。一边呢，通胀还高得吓人，9月核心PCE通胀率还有2.8%，明 显高于美联储定的2%的目标；但另一边，就业市场却开始不行了，9月失业率升到了4.4%，是2021年11月以来最高的，就业增长也明显慢下来了。鲍威尔在 发布会上说，如果把关税的影响去掉，美国的核心通胀其实已经在2%甚至更低，这其实就是在暗示：特朗普加征的关税才是推高通胀的罪魁祸首。 那鲍威尔这次降息，到底是迫于特朗普的压力，还是真的因为经济需要呢？从实际情况看，美联储还是更看重数据，没完全听政治的。这次内部表决分歧挺 大，是2019年以来最严重的一次，12个委员里有3个人投了反对票，其中一个希望降50个基点，另外两个则希望利率保持不变。这种分歧说明美联储内部对 经济前景看法也不一样。鲍威尔 ...

他们的担忧至关重要，因为市场可能会"发脾气"，迫使特朗普撤回对哈塞特的提名，这将是一个令人尴 尬的态度大转弯。 "市场实际上是对政策和其他重大决定的一种理智检验，"Edward Jones的高级全球投资策略师Angelo Kourkafas表示。 特朗普的任命计划似乎正在陷入一个复杂境地：鲍威尔的去留、米兰理事任期以及哈塞特的潜在加入， 构成了美联储史上最难解的"职位罗网"。 彭博11月25日的一篇报道称哈塞特是执掌美联储的"领跑者"，随后10年期美债收益率上涨了11个基点。 据英国《金融时报》援引知情人士的话称，债券投资者在上个月初告诉财政部，他们担心哈塞特会为了 安抚特朗普而极力推动大幅降低借贷成本。 美国总统特朗普上周发出了迄今为止最强烈的暗示，表明他已选定美联储主席鲍威尔的继任者。投资者 对此表示担忧。 在对这十几位候选人进行了数月的猜测后，特朗普终于在上周表示，他知道谁将由他提名成为美国经济 中最有权势的人物。仅仅几天后，在一次内阁会议上，特朗普特别点名国家经济委员会（NEC）主任凯 文·哈塞特是"潜在的美联储主席"，并补充道，"我们被允许这么说吗？" 据该报道，财政部与"华尔街主要银行高管、资产管 ...

此时候选人已从11人筛至2人，哈西特的出线态势愈发清晰。但这份"钦点"光环，反而成了市场眼中的"风险信号"。 美联储主席的宝座之争，正引发华尔街的集体焦虑。 随着鲍威尔明年5月任期将满，美国财政部近期密集与华尔街巨头一对一沟通。 而市场的担忧焦点，全都集中在热门候选人凯文·哈西特身上。 债券投资者们直言，最怕这位特朗普的"老部下"为迎合总统喜好强行降息，酿成金融动荡。 这场担忧的导火索，是特朗普的公开力挺。 此前，白宫活动上，特朗普指着哈西特向众人介绍："这位是美联储主席的潜在人选。" 华尔街的警惕并非空穴来风。哈西特早就是特朗普的"铁杆经济盟友"，第一届政府时期曾任白宫经济顾问委员会主席。 不仅力挺总统的关税政策，更常年鼓吹降息。 凯文·哈西特 就在近期，他还公开表示"美联储下次会议可能降息25个基点"，与特朗普屡次炮轰鲍威尔"降息太慢"的论调如出一辙。 最让市场心惊的，是"政治凌驾通胀"的风险。 多位债券投资者向财政部直言，担心哈西特即便面对超过2%目标的通胀，仍会强行宽松。 "没有人希望重蹈'特拉斯崩盘'的覆辙！"一位业内人士的警告戳中痛点。 2022年英国前首相特拉斯的激进减税政策，曾直接引发债券市场 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global automotive industry is facing a significant chip shortage exacerbated by the Dutch government's intervention in the semiconductor company Nexperia, which has led to supply chain disruptions and production halts among major automakers [1][2][3]. Group 1: Supply Chain Disruptions - The Dutch government has taken control of Nexperia, a subsidiary of the Chinese company Wingtech, citing national security concerns, which has unexpectedly triggered a global chip shortage for automotive manufacturers [2][4]. - Nexperia's actions, including halting supplies, have been criticized for disregarding customer interests and violating contractual agreements, leading to a loss of trust among clients [2][5]. - Major automakers like Volkswagen and Honda have reported production issues, with Volkswagen experiencing its first quarterly loss in five years and Honda halting production at key facilities due to chip shortages [3][7]. Group 2: Impact on Automotive Manufacturers - The European Automobile Manufacturers Association has warned that if Nexperia's supply does not resume quickly, production interruptions could occur within weeks, affecting several factories [3][7]. - Automakers are facing a critical shortage of essential components, particularly electronic control units (ECUs), which are vital for vehicle functionality [7][10]. - The automotive industry is experiencing a rush to find alternative suppliers, but the transition is complicated by lengthy certification processes and the inability of smaller suppliers to meet sudden demand [9][10]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Implications - The semiconductor market is witnessing a shift in risk from predictable shortages to unpredictable political interventions, which could have long-term implications for supply chain stability [11][14]. - The current crisis may accelerate the push for domestic semiconductor production and self-sufficiency in the automotive sector, as companies seek to mitigate risks associated with geopolitical tensions [14]. - The automotive industry is likely to face increased costs and longer lead times for components as they transition to alternative suppliers, which may not be able to match Nexperia's scale and pricing [10][14].

Core Insights - Abe Lowell has transitioned his legal focus to defending individuals targeted by the Trump administration, particularly those on a "cleansing list" [1][5][7] Group 1: Legal Practice and Philosophy - In May 2025, Lowell left his long-standing law firm to establish Lowell & Associates, aiming to provide legal services to those facing unjust legal actions due to political stances or government actions [2][7] - Lowell's law firm is positioned as a "defensive stronghold" against what he perceives as government power abuse, emphasizing the importance of judicial independence and the boundaries of power [5][7] Group 2: Notable Cases and Clients - Recent high-profile cases include defending New York Attorney General Letitia James against allegations of bank fraud and false statements, and representing Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook in a challenge against her removal by the President [5][7] - The clientele has expanded to include former government officials and judicial personnel who have faced investigations after "offending the White House," highlighting the intersection of law and politics [7][8] Group 3: Public Perception and Impact - Lowell's approach has sparked controversy; while supporters view him as a champion against power, critics accuse him of self-promotion through high-profile cases [8][10] - Regardless of the outcomes of these cases, Lowell and his team have made a significant mark on the legal landscape in the context of America's polarized political environment [10][12]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Justice is reportedly investigating George Soros's Open Society Foundations (OSF), potentially breaking a decades-long precedent of political non-interference in such organizations [1][2]. Investigation Details - A senior official from the Justice Department has instructed over six U.S. federal prosecutor offices to draft investigation plans targeting OSF, with potential charges ranging from arson to material support for terrorism [1][3]. - The directive was issued by Aakash Singh from the office of Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche, suggesting a wide array of potential charges including extortion, arson, and telecommunications fraud [3]. Political Context - The investigation aligns with the Trump administration's ongoing pressure on political opponents, reflecting Trump's long-standing dissatisfaction with Soros [2][4]. - Trump has publicly labeled Soros as a "bad person" and has called for criminal charges against him, linking Soros's political donations to Democratic candidates as a point of contention [4][5]. OSF's Response - OSF and its allies have launched a strong counterattack against the government's actions, denying any involvement in terrorism and claiming the investigation is politically motivated [6][7]. - The foundation emphasizes its commitment to strengthening democracy and constitutional freedoms, asserting that its activities are peaceful and legal [7].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision is highly anticipated, with a general expectation of a 25 basis point cut, amidst concerns of weak employment, persistent inflation above target, and increasing political pressure [1][3][5]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decision Expectations - The market widely anticipates a 25 basis point cut to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first cut since December of the previous year, with 105 out of 107 analysts predicting this outcome [3]. - There is a potential for unprecedented voting divisions within the FOMC, with differing opinions on whether to maintain rates, cut by 25 basis points, or even cut by 50 basis points [3][10]. - The FOMC statement may acknowledge rising risks in the labor market, which could signal the beginning of a new easing cycle [5][9]. Group 2: Employment and Inflation Concerns - Recent employment data has shown significant weakness, with a downward revision of 910,000 jobs over the past year, leading to increased expectations for a rate cut [7]. - Despite the push for rate cuts due to employment concerns, inflation remains a critical challenge, with debates surrounding the impact of tariffs on prices [8]. - Officials are cautious about the potential for persistent inflationary pressures, indicating that any rate cuts will be carefully evaluated based on incoming data [8][9]. Group 3: Political Influences on Monetary Policy - Political pressures from the Trump administration have intensified, potentially complicating the FOMC's voting dynamics, with new appointments aligning with the administration's views on interest rates [6]. - The ongoing legal battles surrounding board member Cook's position may further influence the voting landscape, adding uncertainty to the decision-making process [6]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Projections - Goldman Sachs projects three consecutive 25 basis point cuts in September, October, and December, with a potential for further cuts in 2026, depending on employment market conditions [13][14]. - Market reactions to the Fed's decisions are expected to vary, with a 47.5% probability of a dovish 25 basis point cut potentially leading to a 0.5%-1% increase in the S&P 500 index [15][16].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is widely expected to announce a 0.25 percentage point interest rate cut in response to the recent slowdown in the job market [2][3] - The meeting occurs at a politically sensitive time, with the Trump administration exerting pressure on the Fed to lower rates and attempting to influence its board composition [2][3] - There is internal disagreement within the Fed regarding the focus on employment weakness over persistent inflation, with some officials questioning the justification for a rate cut given the current unemployment rate of 4.3% and inflation above the 2% target [3] Group 2 - Recent employment data shows a significant decline in non-farm payroll growth, averaging only 29,000 over the past three months, indicating a clear slowdown in the labor market [3] - The Fed faces challenges in determining the neutral interest rate, currently at 4.3%, with estimates for the neutral rate being adjusted upwards, suggesting the need for several more rate cuts to reach a neutral stance [3] - The quarterly economic projections and dot plot regarding the number of expected rate cuts for the year will be closely monitored by the market, with potential adjustments from two to three cuts [3][4] Group 3 - The upcoming meeting represents a critical decision point for the Fed regarding its independence, political pressures, and economic judgments, with implications for both the U.S. and global economies [4]