一则关于特朗普解雇鲍威尔的传闻，在短短一小时内就引发了市场主要资产的剧烈波动，为投资者提供了一次罕见的"压力测试"，清晰预演了当美联储独 立性受到政治干预时可能引发的金融冲击。 华尔街见闻详述了这一小时的惊心动魄。当免职传闻传出后，市场避险情绪迅速升温，美股与美元应声下跌，黄金与比特币等资产随之走高。不到一小时 后，特朗普否认了这一可能性，称还不打算将解雇鲍威尔，但仍暗示"正当理由"可行。市场又随即扭转此前趋势。 根追风交易台消息，德意志银行7月17日发布的一份研究报告称，这一小时的"市场演习"为量化此类政治风险提供了宝贵的参照。它不仅展示了市场的直 接反应路径，也为推演未来若风险成真时，可能出现的更广泛、更深远的市场冲击提供了依据。根据此次事件的市场反应推算，若解雇真的发生，可能导 致美元在短期内暴跌近6%，同时长期美债遭遇猛烈抛售，例如30年期美债收益率飙升约45个基点。 一小时的冲击：市场如何定价"鲍威尔离任"风险 在传闻发酵到特朗普出面澄清的约60分钟内，市场经历了剧烈动荡。德意志银行称，这期间预测市场Polymarket的数据显示，鲍威尔在年内被解职的概率 急升了约15个百分点，一度逼近40%的峰值 ...

当地时间7月15日，《纽约时报》披露，美国总统特朗普已起草解雇美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的信件，并启动了新任美联储主席的遴选程 序。尽管特朗普当天对这一说法予以否认，但消息仍令华尔街震动，也使总统与美联储之间的矛盾再次成为全球财经舆论的焦点。 △《纽约时报》发文称，特朗普已经起草解雇美联储主席鲍威尔的信件。 特朗普为何对鲍威尔不满？ 综合特朗普的历次表态及白宫内部消息，特朗普对鲍威尔的不满主要集中在以下几点： 首先，特朗普认为鲍威尔降息太慢。自2018年以来，美联储坚持加息周期，与特朗普希望通过低利率刺激经济增长的政策取向相左。 其次，鲍威尔坚守美联储"独立运作"原则，多次拒绝在公开场合顺应白宫政策导向，使特朗普屡次感到难堪。 第三，从风格上看，鲍威尔低调保守，很少参与媒体舆论，而特朗普则希望重要岗位上的人能与其保持一致、愿意配合公开表态。 第四，特朗普经济团队——包括财政部长斯科特·贝森特、国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特等普遍对鲍威尔持批评态度，进一步加剧了矛 盾。 谁将成为下任美联储主席？ 特朗普7月15日公开表示："财政部长斯科特·贝森特可能是下任美联储主席人选，但我更喜欢他继续当财政部长。"但7月16日 ...

来源：滚动播报 事实上，这并非美国历史上首次出现政治对货币政策的直接干预。1970年11月至1971年12月，时任美联 储主席伯恩斯就迫于总统尼克松的压力，总共降息150个基点，最终引爆美国大通胀，其在业内声誉也 急剧下降。只是当下，这种政治干预的力度与姿态更加直接、露骨，几乎不加掩饰。当今美国政坛极 化、短视化现象严重，政客们显然更多关注短期选举利益，美联储因此承受的压力也可想而知。 从外界猜测的白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西特等4位潜在人选来看，他们的货币政策取向并非完全 相同，但都带有一定程度的"鸽派"色彩，即更倾向于降息或维持低利率，以支持经济增长。这并非巧 合，而是出于同一个现实：美国经济复苏势头减弱，通胀虽回落但仍处高位，就业市场降温，而美国政 府债务负担又沉重。在中期选举前，为了稳定经济预期、提振市场情绪，货币政策宽松的需求变得更迫 切。从这个角度看，无论美联储主席最终花落谁家，背后推动的都会是同一个变量：政治需要与经济现 实的妥协。 美联储货币政策的不确定性，影响范围远不止美国国内。通过美元在国际货币体系中的主导地位和美债 收益率的全球影响力，其政策变动牵动着全球市场的神经。德银策略师日前警 ...

最近金融圈里最热闹的话题，莫过于特朗普和鲍威尔之间的"神仙打架"。作为一个在资本市场摸爬滚打多年的老股民，我深知这种高层博弈背后往往暗藏着 巨大的市场机会与风险。但更让我在意的是，当这样的重磅新闻爆出时，普通投资者往往是最晚知道、最早受伤的那群人。 一、新闻背后的市场暗流 德意志银行最新发出的警告犹如一记警钟：美国总统特朗普可能解雇美联储主席鲍威尔的风险被市场严重低估。这让我想起2018年那场"特朗普怒怼美联 储"的闹剧，当时市场同样经历了剧烈波动。 德意志银行全球外汇策略主管George Saravelos的分析报告指出，虽然目前市场定价反映出鲍威尔被免职的可能性不足20%，但一旦发生，贸易加权美元可能 暴跌3%至4%，美国国债收益率可能飙升30至40个基点。这种风险溢价可能会持续相当长的时间。 作为一个经历过多次市场风暴的投资者，我深知这类风险往往会在散户群体中引发恐慌性抛售。但有趣的是，机构投资者往往能提前布局，利用这种恐慌情 绪完成"高抛低吸"的操作。 二、新闻滞后性与A股的"抢跑文化" 在资本市场摸爬滚打这些年，我深刻体会到：新闻都是滞后的。A股市场有个独特的现象叫做"抢跑特性"——国外市场是根据已 ...

Group 1 - The core argument of the articles is that the recent executive order by the Trump administration, titled "Restoring Gold Standard Science," is perceived as a political maneuver that undermines scientific autonomy in the U.S. by placing scientific evaluation under political control [1][2][3] - The executive order aims to reform research integrity policies, promoting a "transparent, rigorous, and impactful" scientific standard, but it raises concerns among researchers about increased political interference in scientific activities [2][3] - Critics argue that the order could lead to the appointment of political officials to oversee research integrity investigations, which may result in punitive actions against scientists based on vague criteria [3][4] Group 2 - The order has sparked significant backlash from the scientific community, with many scientists signing an open letter condemning the initiative as a means to reinforce political control over national research infrastructure [2][4] - Historical context reveals that during Trump's first term, there were multiple accusations of government interference in scientific independence, leading to a lack of trust in scientific integrity [3][4] - The order's implications extend beyond the U.S., providing insights for China to refine its own research integrity policies, emphasizing the need for stable and continuous policy frameworks [5][6] Group 3 - The articles highlight the importance of maintaining a clear separation between science and politics, suggesting that the U.S. experience serves as a cautionary tale for other countries [5][6] - Recommendations for China include institutionalizing research integrity norms and ensuring that political influence does not compromise scientific investigations [5][6][7] - The current state of research integrity in China shows improvement, with a reported 31.2% decrease in research misconduct cases in 2023, indicating progress in fostering a culture of integrity [7][8]

华盛顿的夏夜闷热难耐，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔擦去额头的汗水，面对国会山议员们尖锐的提问。仅仅24小时前，他在 这里坚称"当前不降息是合适的"，话音未落，总统特朗普的怒火已席卷社交媒体："鲍威尔是最差的主席！立刻给我降息2到 3个百分点！" 这场公开对决如同一颗投入金融市场的震撼弹，拉开了6月28日这个动荡交易日的序幕。 凌晨1：00，芝加哥商品交易所的交易屏幕闪烁着冰冷的数据：美联储7月降息概率仅21%，而9月启动降息的可能性飙升至 90%以上。市场刚刚消化了前一日美联储高层的分裂立场——两位拥有投票权的官员沃勒与鲍曼意外转向鸽派，暗示7月可 能降息；但随后十多位官员集体泼下冷水："需要更多数据！" 美联储点阵图暴露了内部裂痕：19位决策者中，7人坚持今年不降息，8人支持降息两次。这种近乎对立的僵局背后，是特 朗普政治压力的阴影。沃勒和鲍曼均为特朗普第一任期任命的理事，其中鲍曼刚被提名为监管副主席，沃勒更是传闻中的 下任主席候选人。一位华尔街分析师直言："这像是递给白宫的投名状。" 上午8：30，经济数据雪片般飞来。美国5月核心PCE物价指数同比上涨2.7%，超出预期；然而个人消费支出环比下滑 0.1%，收 ...

Core Points - The article discusses the abrupt termination of trade negotiations between the U.S. and Canada by Trump, coinciding with his call for Fed Chair Powell to resign, highlighting escalating trade tensions and political interference in economic matters [1][21][34] Trade Relations - Canada plans to implement a 3% digital services tax on U.S. tech companies, expected to generate approximately CAD 2 billion annually, which Trump perceives as a direct attack on the U.S. [3][6] - Trump's reaction included a complete halt to trade negotiations and a threat to impose tariffs on Canadian goods within a week, leading to a significant drop in the Canadian dollar [5][6] - Canada has previously responded to U.S. tariffs by imposing a 25% tariff on U.S. automobiles not compliant with the USMCA and has also levied tariffs on U.S. goods worth about $43 billion [11][13] Economic Impact - The breakdown of U.S.-Canada trade talks is expected to negatively impact the Canadian economy, particularly the labor market, as indicated by Barclays forex strategist Skylar Montgomery Koning [7] - The Canadian trucking industry, which relies on cross-border trade for about 70% of its cargo, is experiencing a decline in orders, leading to layoffs [19] Federal Reserve Dynamics - Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with Powell's leadership, labeling him as "stupid" and "stubborn," and indicated a preference for a successor who is more inclined to lower interest rates [21][23] - Powell's term has 11 months remaining, but Trump may announce a replacement sooner, which could undermine the Fed's independence and create uncertainty in U.S. monetary policy [25][36] Global Economic Uncertainty - The escalation of the U.S.-Canada trade conflict could disrupt global supply chains, leading to shortages and price increases, affecting U.S. exports and employment [34][36] - Other countries, including the EU and Mexico, may respond with their own tariffs, further intensifying global trade tensions [36][38]

Group 1 - The White House has denied rumors of an imminent replacement for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, stating that the decision is not urgent but the President has the authority to change his mind at any time [1] - Powell's term will end in May next year, and if a successor is announced early, it may be perceived as an attempt to establish a "shadow Fed chairman," potentially undermining the Fed's credibility as an independent institution [1] - Following the news, the dollar fell and bond yields dropped as investors reassessed the political risks and potential policy shifts facing the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2 - President Trump has been pressuring Powell for significant interest rate cuts, leading to expectations that he will appoint a more dovish new chairman [2] - Potential candidates for the position include former Fed governor Kevin Warsh, who is seen as politically savvy and has previously advised Trump against firing Powell [2] - Other candidates mentioned are Fed governor Christopher Waller, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, and White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett [2]

美联储古尔斯比：经济学家一致认为货币政策必须摆脱政治干预。 ...

Group 1 - The core message emphasizes the readiness of the foreign ministers of France, Germany, and four other countries to swiftly implement new measures aimed at weakening Russia's military capabilities, particularly in the energy and banking sectors [1] Group 2 - The focus on energy indicates a strategic approach to disrupt Russia's revenue streams, which are heavily reliant on energy exports [1] - The mention of the banking sector suggests potential financial sanctions or restrictions that could limit Russia's access to international financial markets [1] - The collective stance of the six foreign ministers highlights a unified effort among European nations to address security concerns related to Russia's actions [1]