AA股股回回调调是是不不是是上上车车机机会会？？ 22002255年年77月月2288日日--22002255年年88月月11日日基基金金投投顾顾观观点点 本周A股、港股承压，债市震荡，黄金和美股小幅收跌。具体来看，本周市场有以下几个重要 方面 ： 本周A股、港股普遍承压，港股波动高于A股。虽然市场承压，但从成交量看，活跃度仍在高 位，本周内沪深两市日均成交额达到1.78万亿元，相比上周下降330亿元，变化幅度并不明 显。申万一级行业上，医药生物、通信、传媒行业领涨，领涨行业主要集中于景气成长方 向，煤炭、有色金属、房地产行业领跌，领跌行业主要集中于经济周期敏感度高的方向。 02 债市方面，本周资金面整体均衡，债市分化，利率债上涨，信用债小幅下跌，预计纯债基金 收益小幅收正。政策面上，本周召开政治局会议，对于经济定调偏乐观，短期工作重点 在"制定十五五"规划。资金面上，本周资金面整体均衡，对债市影响偏中性。基本面上，本 周公布制造业PMI数据仍位于荣枯线以下，对债市偏利好。 03 商品方面，COMEX黄金本周周度震荡走平，周三受美联储议息会议即将到来的影响，市场 避险情绪抬升，COMEX黄金高开，后结果符合市 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that macroeconomic policies in July focused on both supply and demand, exceeding market expectations, which is expected to improve the mid-term supply-demand structure and corporate profitability [5][10] - The total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan for the "Yaxia" hydropower station project is expected to drive national water conservancy investment by 3.5-6.2% in 2024, further enhancing economic growth expectations [5][10] - The implementation of the childcare subsidy policy starting January 1, 2025, reflects the government's attention to factors affecting long-term economic growth, with a current standard of 3,600 yuan per child per year [11] Group 2 - The U.S. tariff situation has gradually eased since May, with significant progress in trade negotiations between the U.S. and other countries, although future negotiations may face challenges [6][13] - The equity risk premium for the CSI 300 index was recorded at 6.30 at the end of July, continuing to decline and remaining below the historical average [6][16] - In July 2025, the number of stocks with over 20% gains decreased by 3% compared to the previous month, indicating a divergence between the significant increase in trading volume and the marginal decline in profit-making effects [6][17] Group 3 - The Shanghai Composite Index attempted to break through the upper resistance level but faced technical pressure, indicating a need for consolidation before further upward movement [7][19] - The CSI 300 index reached a new high for the year in July but did not touch the high from November of the previous year, suggesting it remains in a volatile market pattern [7][23]

Group 1: Economic Policy and Growth - The Political Bureau of the Central Committee emphasized the need for macro policies to be proactive and effective in the second half of the year, focusing on expanding domestic demand and stabilizing foreign trade and investment [2] - A new round of actions to stabilize growth in ten key industries will be implemented, focusing on enhancing consumption, promoting high-quality development of key industrial chains, and addressing "involution" in competition [4][6] - The manufacturing PMI for July showed a slight decline to 49.3%, indicating a contraction in new orders, but production activities remain in expansion territory [7][8] Group 2: Childcare Subsidy Policy - The national childcare subsidy scheme will provide 3,600 yuan per year for families with children under three years old starting January 1, 2025, benefiting over 20 million families annually [3] Group 3: Trade Relations and Tariffs - The U.S. announced new "reciprocal tariffs" ranging from 10% to 41% on various countries, effective August 7, with Syria facing the highest rate [10] - Ongoing U.S.-China trade talks have resulted in a 90-day extension for previously suspended tariffs, signaling a commitment to dialogue and cooperation [9] Group 4: Competition in E-commerce - Major e-commerce platforms, including Meituan and Taobao, have pledged to regulate subsidy practices and resist unfair competition, responding to regulatory pressures [13][14]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is the introduction of a national childcare subsidy policy, which will provide 3,600 yuan annually for each child under three years old starting from January 1, 2025 [2][3] - The policy marks the first time the national government has established a systematic approach to childcare subsidies, with the central government covering approximately 90% of the funding required for local governments [2][3] - The initial budget allocation for this transfer payment from the central government is around 90 billion yuan, indicating a significant financial commitment to support families [2] Group 2 - The implementation plan allows local governments to adjust the subsidy based on their financial conditions, promoting flexibility in addressing local demographic and economic needs [3] - The policy aims to create a more inclusive welfare system by potentially decoupling subsidies from household registration, thus benefiting long-term residents in urban areas [3] - The subsidy is part of a broader strategy to support families, which includes addressing issues in employment, education, and healthcare to create a comprehensive support system for child-rearing [4] Group 3 - The introduction of the subsidy reflects a strong governmental commitment to fostering a pro-natalist environment, which is crucial for enhancing birth rates [4][5] - There is a recognition that societal attitudes towards children and parenting need to improve, as negative sentiments can deter families from having more children [5] - Establishing a regular evaluation mechanism for the subsidy program is essential to assess its effectiveness while ensuring that the focus remains on individual choices regarding childbirth [5]

本刊记者 崔晓萌 7月28日，国家育儿补贴制度实施方案一经公布便引发广泛关注——从2025年1月1日起，无论一孩、二孩、三孩，每年均可领取3600元补贴，直至年满3周 岁。900亿元补贴的投入，预计每年将惠及2000多万个婴幼儿家庭。 北京宝妈小静第一时间查询后确认，自家1岁8个月的孩子可稳定获得6900元补贴。这样的实惠，让不少家庭感受到政策温度。 网上有人说，每年3600元不算多。其实，这只是一个开始，是政策从探索走向定型的关键一步。 近年来，地方层面已积极行动。国务院发展研究中心研究员佘宇介绍，全国已有20多个省份在不同层级开展育儿补贴政策探索。 近期，相关政策也在密集出台：7月25日国务院常务会部署免费学前教育，要求各地尽快细化方案；国家医保局24日表示，31个省份和兵团已将辅助生殖 项目纳入医保报销范围，并推动生育津贴"即申即享"、直接发放至生育女职工个人；30日又透露，部分省份将分娩镇痛纳入报销，同时加快新生儿护 理、"亲情陪产"等价格项目立项。 这些政策看似分散，实则围绕同一核心：增加居民收入，减轻医疗、教育、养老等负担，为有生育意愿的家庭创造更好条件。 北京大学国家发展研究院副教授黄炜认为，育 ...

央视网消息：7月30日，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，介绍育儿补贴制度及生育支持措施有关情况。实施育儿补贴制度、推行免费学前教育、加快完 善生育支持政策体系。 数据显示，2016年，我国出生人口为1883万，2023年，我国出生人口为902万，7年时间，出生人口减少一半。在此背景下，如何构建生育友好型社会？ 地方政策和国家政策如何衔接？ 中国人口与发展研究中心主任 贺丹：国家现在对各地指导的政策里面明确要求地方要做地方政策的评估，在这个基础上制定具体的实施方案，通过备案以 后，再开始实施。这里面要评估的重点内容： 第一，要保证国家统一的育儿补贴政策得到全面落实，每一个符合条件的家庭都能够享受到这个政策的支持。 第二，要保证国家统一政策的长期、稳定执行。 贺丹：第一，要保证政策平稳有序实施，做好政策宣传，特别是地方政策的解读。到老百姓手上的"最后一公里"的政策宣传解读、具体的申领过程方式，都 要有特别细的方案和特别详尽的解读。另外，要保证工作人员把政策精神吃透，把政策落实好、把好事办好。 第二，制度建设和政策实施同步推进，国家和地方要共同制定整个育儿补贴制度实施的规范性政策文件，保证这项制度长期、稳定、有效的 ...

郭燕红介绍，从国际看，这是不少国家采取的生育支持政策之一；从国内看，一些地方结合了当地的人 口和经济社会发展实际，探索实施了不同形式的育儿补贴政策，受到群众普遍欢迎。根据国际和国内的 实施情况，中国实施育儿补贴制度将产生3方面的预期效果。 帮助减轻家庭养育的负担。育儿补贴制度作为支持生育的经济政策，通过财政资金的精准发放，可以直 接增加群众的现金收入。育儿补贴每年惠及上千万个家庭，可以为家庭育儿提供基础性支持，改善育儿 条件，在一定程度上缓解家庭养育孩子的经济压力，助力幼有所育。 营造生育友好的社会氛围。育儿补贴是强化生育支持、促进生育友好的激励政策，树立了鲜明的政策导 向。实施育儿补贴制度还有利于和托育、教育、就业、税收、住房等相关的政策同向发力，持续完善生 育政策体系，更好地形成系统集成效应，推动建设生育友好型社会。 更好地保障和改善民生。育儿补贴是一项普惠性、基础性、兜底性的民生政策，惠及面广、发放稳定， 是"投资于人"的重要措施。实施育儿补贴制度，进一步强化基础民生保障，促进家庭发展，把人口高质 量发展同人民高品质生活密切结合起来，"小切口"撬动"大民生"。同时，有助于促进民生改善和经济发 展的良性循 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the introduction of a child-rearing subsidy system aimed at alleviating the financial burden on families raising children, with an annual subsidy of 3,600 yuan per child, benefiting over 20 million infants each year [1][2] - The subsidy is expected to directly increase the cash income of families, particularly benefiting middle and low-income households, thereby reducing the economic pressure associated with child-rearing [1][2] - The implementation of the subsidy is a clear signal from the government that raising children is a societal responsibility that requires state support, promoting a more birth-friendly social atmosphere [1][2] Group 2 - The child-rearing subsidy is seen as an investment in people, particularly during the critical 0-3 years of a child's development, which is essential for future population quality and national long-term development potential [2] - The initiative is part of a broader strategy to improve living standards and stimulate economic growth, creating a positive cycle for sustainable economic development [2] - To effectively encourage young people to have children, the subsidy must be complemented by coordinated policies in childcare services, education, and housing, addressing the comprehensive needs of families [2]

7月30日，国新办举行新闻发布会，介绍育儿补贴制度及生育支持措施有关情况。 "为了方便群众申领，我们还专门制定了2022年至2024年各月份出生的婴幼儿申领补贴金额的对照表， 对照表已经发到网上了，这样可以一目了然地知道每一个孩子的申领补贴金额。"王海东说。 今年育儿补贴补助资金初步安排预算900亿左右 记者注意到，此前，国内一些地方探索发放育儿补贴，大多只针对二孩、三孩，多数一孩家庭无法享 受。此次国家育儿补贴制度将一孩纳入补贴范围。 国家卫生健康委人口监测与家庭发展司司长王海东对《每日经济新闻》记者表示，一方面，一孩家庭是 育儿家庭的主体。我国每年出生的人口中，一半以上都是一孩，所以将一孩纳入补贴范围，实现育儿补 贴制度的广覆盖，能够全面惠及育儿家庭。 另一方面，生育是一个家庭的大事。生育一孩是家庭生育的起点和基础，也是特别需要支持的关键阶 段，所以给一孩发放育儿补贴，可以改善家庭的生育体验，减轻家庭的养育压力，也有利于家庭的再生 育考虑。 育儿补贴制度覆盖3岁以前养育阶段 《育儿补贴制度实施方案》（以下简称《实施方案》）明确，从2025年1月1日起，无论一孩、二孩、三 孩，每年均可领取3600元补贴，直 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implementation of a comprehensive set of measures in Beijing aimed at enhancing fertility support policies and creating a family-friendly society, focusing on various aspects such as financial support, childcare services, and housing policies [1][10]. Summary by Category Financial Support - A new childbirth subsidy system will be established in Beijing, providing annual subsidies of 3,600 yuan per child for families with children under three years old, starting from January 1, 2025 [2][11]. - The measures aim to reduce short-term financial burdens on families, particularly benefiting middle and low-income groups through direct cash subsidies and insurance coverage [11]. Childcare Services - The measures propose to strengthen the childcare service system by increasing the supply of public childcare spaces and establishing a dynamic adjustment mechanism for pricing and financial subsidies [6][7]. - The goal is to achieve a ratio of 4.5 childcare spaces per 1,000 population for children under three by 2025, with at least 60% of these spaces being affordable [7]. Housing Policies - Families with multiple underage children will receive priority in public rental housing allocations, and there will be support for increasing housing loan limits for families with many children [8][9]. - The measures also include provisions for families to withdraw housing provident fund contributions based on actual rent paid, easing the housing burden for multi-child families [8][11]. Education Support - The measures emphasize optimizing educational resource allocation and promoting free preschool education, while ensuring that siblings from the same family can attend the same school [8][11]. - There will be an increase in the supply of kindergarten places and support for after-school services in primary and secondary schools [8]. Employment and Labor Rights - The measures include provisions to enhance labor protections for women, particularly those who are pregnant or breastfeeding, and to support their re-employment after childbirth [8][11]. - The inclusion of unemployed individuals receiving unemployment insurance in the maternity insurance system is aimed at providing comprehensive support during childbirth [3][10]. Healthcare Services - The measures call for the establishment of at least one critical newborn rescue center in each district and the expansion of pediatric services in hospitals [5]. - There will be an emphasis on improving the quality of pediatric healthcare and ensuring that children's medications are included in insurance coverage [5].