每日市场观察 2025 年 6 月 11 日 【今日关注】 周二市场收跌，成交额 1.45 万亿，比上一交易日增加约 1,400 亿。行 业多数下跌，银行、医药、交运、传媒、有色等行业小幅上涨，军工、 计算机、电子、通信等行业跌幅居前。 中办国办印发重要意见，国内进入合并的重要芯片和服务器上市公司复 牌，前 5 个月我国进出口数据同比增长，在上述利好信息加持下， A 股开盘以及分时走势并不算强，全天多数时间下跌行业和个股占比较大， 科技板块的表现更为弱势。午后 A 股港股一度快速下探，但盘中看不到 显著的负面信息，较大可能与正在进行的经贸磋商有关。 市场成交量继续放大，其中受到午后波动放大的影响，但盘中修复明显 且最终收盘跌幅显著收窄，表明市场具有较强的韧性，因而这种成交量 的放大，可能更多指向积极的一面。从近期系列事件综合来看，对贸易 谈判似乎不应过于担忧。 市场概况：6 月 10 日，市场午后快速走低，创业板指领跌。截至收盘， 沪指跌 0.44%，深成指跌 0.86%，创业板指跌 1.17%。 【资金面】 主力资金流向：6 月 10 日，上证净流入 66.38 亿元，深证净流入 96.42 亿元。行业板块 ...

Group 1 - The central government plans to increase the investment scale for social undertakings by over 30% compared to the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan, focusing on improving public welfare and addressing urgent needs of the population [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) emphasizes the importance of both "hard investment" projects and "soft construction" measures to enhance social welfare, aiming to improve the quality of life for citizens [1] - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security will focus on expanding social insurance coverage for flexible employment, migrant workers, and new employment forms, while removing household registration restrictions for flexible employment insurance [2] Group 2 - The Ministry of Finance plans to increase budget allocations for education, social security, and employment to nearly 4.5 trillion yuan, with respective growth rates of 6.1% and 5.9% [2] - The basic pension for urban and rural residents will see a monthly minimum increase of 20 yuan, benefiting over 300 million elderly individuals through enhanced financial support [3] - The Ministry of Education aims to improve higher education quality and expand capacity by optimizing resource allocation and enhancing industry-academia integration [4] Group 3 - The Ministry of Civil Affairs will refine social assistance mechanisms to ensure equitable and sustainable support for low-income groups, including the establishment of a national information-sharing system for social assistance [5] - The government will implement a targeted approach to social assistance, ensuring that aid measures are tailored to the specific needs of disadvantaged populations [5]

·商务部发布关于原产于欧盟的进口相关猪肉及猪副产品反倾销调查的延期公告：根据《中华人民共和 国反倾销条例》的规定，2024年6月17日，商务部发布2024年第23号公告，决定对原产于欧盟的进口相 关猪肉及猪副产品进行反倾销立案调查。鉴于本案情况复杂，根据《中华人民共和国反倾销条例》第二 十六条的规定，商务部决定将本案的调查期限延长至2025年12月16日。 ·6月10日，财政部社会保障司负责人葛志昊在国新办新闻发布会上表示，在"一老一小"服务方面，财政 部积极配合有关部门完善养老育幼服务体系，推进社区支持的居家养老服务，加强失能老年人照护服 务，促进普惠托育服务高质量发展，抓紧建立实施育儿补贴制度，有关工作正在加快推进，确保更好满 足人民群众对"一老一小"方面的服务需求。 ·6月10日，国家发展改革委副秘书长肖渭明在国新办新闻发布会上表示，预计今年支持社会事业的中央 预算内投资规模将比"十三五"末提高30%以上。在组织实施"硬投资"项目同时，国家发展改革委还将加 快出台落实"软建设"的举措，完善"项目+政策"双轮驱动，推动以投资换机制，努力做到补短板、扩内 需、惠民生效益的充分显现。 【重点关注】 ·《直播电 ...

"总体思路还是没太大变化，但方案目前还不能公布"，上述人士称。 就在一天前，中办、国办《关于进一步保障和改善民生着力解决群众急难愁盼的意见》（以下简称， 《意见》）公开发布，围绕解决人民群众在民生保障方面最关心最直接最现实的利益问题，《意见》 提出4方面10条政策举措。 有关托育部分，《意见》提出，多渠道增加公建托位供给，大力发展社区嵌入式托育和家庭托育点， 支持有条件的幼儿园延伸发展托育服务，用10年左右时间，推动有条件的大城市逐步实现嵌入式等 普惠托育覆盖80%以上社区。推动普惠托育纳入企事业单位职工福利体系，用人单位开展普惠托育 服务的有关支出，按规定从职工福利费中列支，用人单位工会经费可以适当补充。 文 / 高歌 有关"一老一小"普惠服务的"软建设"力度正在加大。 6月10日，国新办举行新闻发布会，介绍进一步保障和改善民生有关政策情况。财政部社会保障司负 责人葛志昊表示， 2025年，财政对民生领域的投入力度进一步加大。促进普惠托育服务高质量发 展，正抓紧建立实施育儿补贴制度。 2024年10月，和讯网了解到，相关部门对涉及养老、托育补贴政策的调研正在进行。 "现在共识已 经达成，但是具体的实施路径， ...

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance is accelerating the establishment and implementation of a childcare subsidy system [1] - Ren Zhengfei stated that artificial intelligence may be the last technological revolution for human society, with nuclear fusion in energy also being a possibility [2] - UBS's emerging markets strategist Xingchen Yu believes global investors should continue to strategically invest in Chinese stocks, as Chinese tech stocks have further upside potential [3] Group 2 - As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.11%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.23%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.36% [4] - The Hang Seng Index increased by 0.33%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index declined by 0.33% [4]

财政部社会保障司负责人葛志昊6月10日在国新办新闻发布会上表示，在"一老一小"服务方面，财政 部积极配合有关部门完善养老育幼服务体系，推进社区支持的居家养老服务，加强失能老年人照护 服务，促进普惠托育服务高质量发展， 抓紧建立实施育儿补贴制度，有关工作正在加快推进， 确 保更好满足人民群众对"一老一小"方面的服务需求。 ...

Core Insights - JD's Q1 2025 revenue reached 301.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, marking the highest quarterly growth rate in three years, with service revenue at 58.8 billion yuan, up 14.0% year-on-year [2][10] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was 12.8 billion yuan, exceeding expectations by 43.4% [2][10] - The retail revenue of JD grew by 16.3% year-on-year to 263.8 billion yuan, driven by strong user growth and supply chain optimization [2][10] Revenue and Profitability - The group achieved a gross margin of 15.9%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, and a fulfillment gross margin of 9.3%, up 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [3][10] - JD's retail operating profit margin improved by 0.8 percentage points to 4.9% [3][10] - The company continues to enhance its operational efficiency through its supply chain infrastructure and smart integration of business ecosystems [3][10] Business Development - JD's food delivery service surpassed 10 million daily orders as of April 22, 2025, indicating significant progress in this segment [3][10] - The company has repurchased 1.5 billion USD worth of shares, amounting to approximately 2.8% of its outstanding shares as of December 31, 2024 [3][10] - The expansion of the platform into new markets, including Hong Kong and international regions, is ongoing, with a focus on maintaining high growth rates in various product categories [10] Policy and Market Environment - The April Politburo meeting emphasized stabilizing employment and the economy, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption [4][11] - The government is expected to introduce flexible policies to address uncertainties in tariffs and enhance financial support for various sectors [11] - The focus on long-term structural reforms and support for consumer spending is anticipated to drive economic growth in the coming quarters [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6]. Core Views - The implementation of the parenting subsidy policy is expected to benefit the children's clothing business, as 23 provinces in China have begun exploring various forms of birth subsidies [2]. - The company aims to enhance its retail transformation and supply chain capabilities by focusing on consumer insights, efficient product operations, and precise product development [3]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting revenues of 15.3 billion, 16 billion, and 17 billion respectively, with net profits of 1.1 billion, 1.2 billion, and 1.3 billion [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 3.1 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2%, and a net profit of 200 million, down 38% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin remained stable at 47%, while the net profit margin decreased by 4 percentage points to 7% [1]. - The sales expense ratio increased by 4 percentage points to 29%, and the management expense ratio rose by 1 percentage point to 5% [1]. Financial Forecast Summary - The company expects revenues for 2025 to be 15.25 billion, with a growth rate of 4.3% [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.41, 0.45, and 0.49 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is forecasted to be 14x, 13x, and 11x for the next three years [4].

格有所支撑。操作上建议，玻璃主力合约2509，1100附近轻仓做多，止损价格1080，注意操作节奏及风险 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 控制。操作上建议，目前纯碱主力合约2509，1380附近可以尝试空单，止损价格1400元，注意操作节奏及 免责声明 纯碱玻璃产业日报 2025-04-29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1376 | 12 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1108 | -14 | | | 纯碱与玻璃价差(日,元/吨) | 268 | 26 纯碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1018097 | -18679 | | | 玻璃主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1150500 | -11339 纯碱前20名净持仓 | -134013 | 20595 | | | 玻璃前20名净持仓 | -172739 | 16791 纯碱交易所仓单(日,吨) | 3840 ...

金十数据整理：昨日今晨重要新闻汇总（4月29日） 国内新闻： 1. 外交部：近期中美两国元首没有通话。中美双方并没有就关税问题进行磋商或谈判。 2. 中证协拟规范证券从业人员投资行为。 9. 俄乌-①普京宣布卫国战争胜利庆典期间停火72小时 ②英媒：美国和乌克兰最快将于本周签署矿产协 议 ③泽连斯基：经过谈判后，与美国的矿产协议变得"更稳固、更公平"。 3. 玉渊谭天：一些增量政策将在6月底前推出。 4. 深圳：一季度地区生产总值8950.49亿元，同比增长5.2%。 5. 一季度我国黄金消费量同比下降5.96%，中国黄金ETF持仓增长23.47吨。 6. 王毅会见俄外长拉夫罗夫，双方就伊朗核、朝鲜半岛核问题等交换了看法。 2. 美航母一架"超级大黄蜂"战机意外坠入红海。 3. 美国4月达拉斯联储商业活动指数大幅低于预期。 4. 巴基斯坦国防部长：印度的军事进攻已迫在眉睫。 5. 美国财长：针对债务上限问题的"X日"将于近期公布。 6. 美财政部上调二季度举债规模预期，至5140亿美元。 国际新闻： 1. 关税-①大西洋月刊专访：特朗普认为没有任何红线会改变关税政策 ②美国财长：首笔贸易协议可能 最早在本周或 ...