丨证券研究报告丨 中国经济丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 收入改善有波折，支出放缓待发力 ——5 月财政数据点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 1-5 月财政收支有以下特点：1）财政收入累计降幅收窄，但税收修复边际有所放缓； 2）个人所得税延续修复，地产相关税收拖累加剧；3）财政支出节奏边际放缓，基建支出降幅 走扩；4）政府性基金收入降幅走扩、支出放缓。往前看，若下半年国内外形势出现新的变化， 财政应对主要有三条：1）加速存量，重点关注用于项目建设的专项债发行是否提速；2）调整 存量，重点关注财政资金对于地产相关、促消费、保民生等领域的支持和补贴力度；3）储备增 量，包括政府债限额空间、央行利润上缴、财政结余资金、类财政工具、新增政府债额度等。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于博 宋筱筱 蒋佳榛 SAC：S0490520090001 SAC：S0490520080011 SAC：S0490524080005 SFC：BUX667 SFC：BVZ974 2025 年 6 月 20 日，财政部公布 2025 年 1-5 月财政数据：1-5 月，全国一般公共预算收入 ...

Revenue Insights - In May, the national general public budget revenue was CNY 16,007 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of only 0.13%, a decline of 1.76 percentage points from the previous value[3] - Cumulative public budget revenue from January to May decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, maintaining a similar decline as the previous value[3] - Tax revenue growth faced obstacles, with a year-on-year increase of only 0.6% in May, down from 1.9% previously, leading to a cumulative decline of 1.6% year-on-year[3] Expenditure Trends - Public budget expenditure in May reached CNY 19,372 billion, growing by 2.6% year-on-year, a slowdown from the previous 5.8%[4] - Cumulative expenditure growth from January to May was 4.2%, still above the annual target growth rate[4] - Science and technology expenditure surged by 20% year-on-year, while infrastructure spending showed a decline, with agricultural and community affairs down by 11.5% and 8.4% respectively[4] Fund Revenue and Expenditure - Government fund revenue in May was CNY 2,897 billion, a decrease of 8.2% year-on-year, marking a significant drop of 16 percentage points from the previous value[5] - Government fund expenditure grew by 8.8% year-on-year in May, although this was a decrease from the previous month's growth of 45%[5] - By the end of May, government fund expenditure progress was approximately 25.7% of the annual target, still higher than the same period in 2024[5] Economic Outlook - The marginal slowdown in fiscal revenue and expenditure suggests a focus on technology, consumption, and livelihood support, with expectations for continued stable issuance of government bonds in the third quarter[6] - Potential economic pressures due to tariff disturbances may lead to further fiscal stimulus, likely through new policy financial tools[6]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance reported a slight decline in national public budget revenue for the first five months of the year, with a total revenue of approximately 9.66 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 0.3% [1]. Revenue Breakdown - Tax revenue amounted to about 7.92 trillion yuan, down 1.6% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed compared to the previous months [1][2]. - Non-tax revenue reached 1.75 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, although this growth has slowed compared to earlier months [1][6]. Tax Categories - Domestic value-added tax (VAT) was approximately 3.09 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.4%, aligning with stable growth in industrial output and service production [2]. - Corporate income tax totaled 2.18 trillion yuan, down 2.5% year-on-year, indicating a trend of "increased revenue without increased profit" among businesses [2]. - Export tax rebates were 1.08 trillion yuan, up 11.6% year-on-year, reflecting resilient export performance [2]. - Personal income tax reached 657.2 billion yuan, with an 8.2% year-on-year increase, indicating strong growth in individual earnings [2][4]. Sector Performance - The equipment manufacturing sector showed significant tax revenue growth, with railway, shipbuilding, and aerospace manufacturing increasing by 28.8%, and computer and communication equipment manufacturing by 11.9% [6]. - The cultural, sports, and entertainment sectors saw a tax revenue increase of 7.8%, driven by recovering consumer demand [6]. - The digital economy and related sectors also performed well, with tax revenue from information transmission and software services growing by 10%, and scientific research and technical services by 12.7% [6]. Expenditure Insights - Total public budget expenditure for the first five months was approximately 11.3 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, indicating strong government spending despite declining revenue [6]. - The issuance of local special bonds accelerated, with 1.6 trillion yuan issued, accounting for 37% of the annual quota [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the continuous growth in both revenue and expenditure in the region's fiscal budget for the first five months of the year, with public budget revenue reaching 755.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, and public budget expenditure totaling 2563.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [1] - Tax revenue has shown a positive trend, with a year-on-year growth of 1.4% for the first five months, improving significantly from a mere 0.04% growth in the first four months [1] - Expenditure from municipal and county finances has also increased, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5%, and 13 out of 14 municipalities reporting positive growth in expenditure [1] Group 2 - In the area of public welfare, spending reached a historical high of 2014.88 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, maintaining a proportion of around 80% of total public budget expenditure [2] - Significant growth was observed in various sectors, including commercial services (38.2%), energy conservation and environmental protection (31.8%), transportation (25.8%), technology (15.1%), agriculture (10.3%), and education (8.9%) [2]

Group 1 - The effectiveness of fiscal policy is beginning to show, but revenue is still below budget targets. The general public budget revenue for the first four months was 8.1 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -0.4%, which is lower than the previous year's growth of 1.3% and the initial budget target of 0.1% [4][5][26] - Monthly improvements in revenue are observed, with April's revenue growth turning positive at 1.9%. The revenue completion rate for the first four months was 36.7%, slightly below the average of the past five years [4][6] - Government expenditure has exceeded targets, with a year-on-year growth of 4.6% for the first four months, surpassing the budget target of 4.4%. The expenditure completion rate reached 31.5%, the highest since 2020 [6][9] Group 2 - The narrow fiscal deficit for the first four months reached 1.3 trillion yuan, marking a historical high for the same period, with a usage rate of 16.8%, significantly above the average of 12% over the past five years [13][14] - The issuance of government bonds has been accelerated, contributing to a rapid usage of the narrow deficit. The net financing of ordinary government bonds reached 1.9 trillion yuan, accounting for 39.4% of the annual central deficit target [14][18] - Special bonds have seen a slower issuance pace, with a completion rate of 37.1% for the first five months, which is higher than the previous year but lower than the levels seen in 2022 and 2023 [18][19] Group 3 - There is a potential need for incremental support, with a projected revenue gap of approximately 550 billion yuan for 2025. If revenue performance does not improve, there may be a possibility of increasing government debt quotas [3][26] - Special bonds are expected to be a focus for fiscal efforts in the second half of the year, with an anticipated increase in funds for land reserves, which could alleviate liquidity pressures for real estate companies [27][31] - New policy financial tools are expected to be implemented in the second half of the year, aimed at supporting investment in urban renewal and various infrastructure projects [33]

Core Insights - Beijing's fiscal revenue for the first four months reached 254.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.8% [1] - Total expenditure for the same period was 335.92 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.8% [2] Revenue Summary - The city's general public budget revenue completed 254.79 billion yuan, achieving 38.4% of the annual budget, exceeding the timeline by 5.1 percentage points [1] - Local tax revenue amounted to 220.77 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [1] - The three major tax categories contributed 165.32 billion yuan, a growth of 6.9%, accounting for 64.9% of total revenue [1] - Value-added tax reached 78.65 billion yuan, growing by 3.0% [1] - Corporate income tax totaled 59.39 billion yuan, with a significant increase of 12.7%, driven by profits from key information and technology enterprises [1] - Personal income tax was 27.28 billion yuan, up by 6.4%, influenced by stock option exercises and year-end bonuses [1] Expenditure Summary - General public budget expenditure was 335.92 billion yuan, completing 40.0% of the annual budget, exceeding the timeline by 6.7 percentage points [2] - Key expenditure areas included: - Science and technology spending of 30.68 billion yuan, up 9.0%, focusing on basic research and innovation [2] - Education expenditure of 45.66 billion yuan, increasing by 8.0%, aimed at supporting early childhood education and higher education [2] - Health spending of 27.59 billion yuan, a growth of 2.4%, ensuring stable operation of public medical institutions [2] - Social security and employment expenditure of 54.65 billion yuan, up 2.9%, enhancing the social security system [2] - Urban and community spending of 44.49 billion yuan, increasing by 3.6%, supporting infrastructure projects [2]

Revenue Insights - In the first four months of 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 80,616 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%[6] - In April 2025, the monthly revenue growth rate was 1.9%, up from 0.3% in March[6] - Tax revenue for the same period was 65,556 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 2.1%[8] Expenditure Insights - General public budget expenditure from January to April 2025 was 93,581 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.6%[9] - In April 2025, the expenditure growth rate was 5.8%, slightly higher than March's 5.7%[9] - Social security and education expenditures maintained high growth rates, indicating a focus on welfare[11] Government Fund Insights - Government fund budget revenue decreased by 6.7% year-on-year to 12,586 billion yuan in the first four months of 2025[17] - In April 2025, the revenue growth rate rebounded to 8.1%, compared to -11.7% in March[17] - Government fund budget expenditure grew by 17.7% year-on-year, with April's growth rate reaching 44.7%[17] Fiscal Policy Outlook - The fiscal policy is expected to accelerate, focusing on urban renewal projects and infrastructure improvements[22] - There is an emphasis on increasing local government special bonds and long-term special treasury bonds to support economic growth[22] - Risks remain due to uncertainties in overseas demand, which could impact future fiscal performance[23]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance reported an improvement in fiscal revenue for April 2025, with total public budget revenue reaching 80,616 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, but the decline rate narrowed by 0.7 percentage points compared to the first quarter [1] - Tax revenue amounted to 65,556 billion yuan, down 2.1% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline of 1.4 percentage points from the first quarter. Notably, tax revenue grew by 1.9% in April, marking a positive monthly growth [1] - The overall public budget revenue in April showed a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, up from 0.3% in March, indicating a marginal improvement in the revenue structure [1] Group 2 - Among the four major tax categories, corporate income tax, value-added tax, and consumption tax saw significant declines in year-on-year growth rates in April, with growth rates of 4.0%, 0.9%, and 0.5% respectively, compared to previous values of 16.0%, 4.9%, and 9.6% [2] - The personal income tax experienced a notable increase of 67.5 percentage points year-on-year, reaching 9.0%, attributed to a low base from the previous year [2] Group 3 - In terms of fiscal expenditure, the general public budget expenditure grew by 5.8% year-on-year in April, surpassing the revenue growth rate, indicating a continued focus on stable growth in fiscal spending [4] - By the end of April, the general public budget expenditure completed 31.5% of the annual budget, higher than the average of 30.7% over the past five years [4] - Infrastructure-related expenditures showed a year-on-year growth of 2.2%, with significant increases in urban and rural community affairs and transportation spending, while expenditures in agriculture, forestry, water affairs, and energy conservation showed a slowdown [4]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the fiscal situation in China for April 2025, focusing on government spending, revenue, and infrastructure investment trends. Core Insights and Arguments - **Fiscal Spending Growth**: In April 2025, fiscal spending growth accelerated, primarily due to government debt financing support. The issuance of central ordinary and special government bonds has increased, with local governments shifting focus towards project investments, especially in infrastructure [3][5][8]. - **Local Government Investment**: Local governments have actively engaged in infrastructure investments through special bonds, with significant increases in government fund budget expenditures corresponding to local infrastructure investments. Social welfare-related expenditures have also risen, indicating increased pressure to maintain employment [5][6]. - **Revenue Improvement**: There was a marginal improvement in fiscal revenue in April 2025, although it remained in negative growth territory overall. Corporate income tax and export-related taxes provided some support, with corporate income tax improvements likely linked to corporate profit growth [6][9]. - **Structural Changes in Public Finance**: Public finance expenditures have shown structural changes, with a slight recovery in transportation spending and a decline in agricultural and forestry-related expenditures. This indicates a more proactive approach by local governments towards infrastructure investments [7][8]. - **Land Sale Revenue**: Land sale revenue growth remained negative in the first quarter of 2025, but micro-level data showed a recovery in land transaction prices across 330 cities. Fiscal confirmation of revenue lagged behind, only showing improvement in April [10]. - **Future Policy Outlook**: The future policy outlook suggests a preference for utilizing existing policies before considering any new measures. The second quarter will see continued acceleration in the implementation of existing policies, with potential new policies dependent on external pressures and upcoming political meetings [4][11][12]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - **Export Tax Revenue**: The first quarter of 2025 saw historically low export-related tax revenues, primarily due to high export tax rebates. This situation is linked to the "rush to export" phenomenon [9]. - **Monitoring Future Developments**: The upcoming political meetings in July and August will be critical in determining whether additional fiscal measures will be introduced, especially if export growth approaches zero [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In 2025 from January to April, the general public budget revenue showed marginal improvement with economic recovery, but structural pressure remained, and subsequent policies were needed to stabilize revenue. The general public budget expenditure accelerated expansion, reflecting active fiscal policy and continuous efforts to stabilize growth. The government - funded budget revenue was still in negative growth but improved, and the expenditure accelerated, continuing to play a key role in stabilizing investment [3][4][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs General Public Budget Revenue - From January to April 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 8.0616 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.4%. Tax revenue was 6.5556 trillion yuan, down 2.1% year - on - year, and non - tax revenue was 1.506 trillion yuan, up 7.7% year - on - year. Central revenue decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, and local revenue increased by 2.2% year - on - year [35] - Main tax revenue items: domestic VAT was 2.6254 trillion yuan, up 1.8% year - on - year; domestic consumption tax was 650.2 billion yuan, up 1.8% year - on - year; enterprise income tax was 1.7341 trillion yuan, down 3.1% year - on - year; personal income tax was 537.6 billion yuan, up 7.4% year - on - year; etc. [36][37][38] General Public Budget Expenditure - From January to April 2025, the national general public budget expenditure was 9.3581 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. Central expenditure increased by 9% year - on - year, and local expenditure increased by 3.9% year - on - year [46] - Main expenditure items: education expenditure was 1.4481 trillion yuan, up 7.4% year - on - year; science and technology expenditure was 1.1505 trillion yuan, up 3.9% year - on - year; social security and employment expenditure was 4.2114 trillion yuan, up 8.5% year - on - year; etc. [47][48][50] Government - Funded Budget Revenue - From January to April 2025, the national government - funded budget revenue was 1.2586 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 6.7%. Central revenue increased by 7.2% year - on - year, and local revenue decreased by 8% year - on - year. State - owned land use right transfer income was 934 billion yuan, down 11.4% year - on - year [57] Government - Funded Budget Expenditure - From January to April 2025, the national government - funded budget expenditure was 2.6136 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 17.7%. Central expenditure increased by 75% year - on - year, and local expenditure increased by 16.6% year - on - year. Expenditure related to state - owned land use right transfer income was 1.3647 trillion yuan, down 8.4% year - on - year [58][59]