Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and diverse trend, with different sectors and varieties having their own characteristics and influencing factors. In the macro - financial sector, the short - term trend of stock index futures is strong, and the short - term strategy of treasury bond futures can consider a steepening strategy. In the black sector, prices are expected to fluctuate. In the agricultural products sector, most varieties face supply - demand imbalances and price pressures. In the energy - chemical sector, the supply - demand relationship of crude oil is changing, and other products follow different trends based on their own fundamentals [9][10][12]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro Information - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association solicits opinions on the "Draft Amendment to the Price Law (Exposure Draft)" [6]. - The Shanghai Composite Index has once again reached 3600 points, and margin trading balances have returned to the 2 - trillion - yuan mark for the first time since July 2015 [6]. - US President Trump signs executive orders to impose additional tariffs on Indian goods and plans to impose about 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors [6]. - Express delivery prices in Guangdong have increased, with the base price per ticket rising by 0.4 yuan [6]. - Trump plans to meet with Putin and Zelensky next week to attempt to achieve a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict [6]. - The Fed's Daly says policy may need adjustment in the coming months, and there is still much work to do to bring inflation down to 2% [7]. 2. Macro - Finance Stock Index Futures - The strategy is to continue the trend - following idea. The A - share market has shown a strong upward trend recently, with increased trading volume and margin trading balances reaching a high level. Trump's tariff plan on chips and semiconductors may have an impact. The stock index has rebounded and returned to the trend after a pull - back [9]. Treasury Bond Futures - A short - term steepening strategy can be considered. The capital market is loose, and the bond market is under pressure but not weak. Attention should be paid to whether the capital level can be maintained at 1.3 - 1.35% [10]. 3. Black Sector Overall Market - Policy continues to emphasize "anti - involution" with a looser tone. Market sentiment has been realized in previous price increases, and prices are expected to fluctuate. Demand is seasonally weak, but the decline is limited in the medium - term. Supply is expected to remain strong. Raw material prices are firm, and steel and ore prices are expected to oscillate [12]. Steel and Iron Ore - Steel spot prices have increased slightly, but trading volume has weakened compared to the previous day. Iron ore prices in Shandong are basically stable. The price increase is due to the rise in raw material prices such as coking coal [13][15]. Coking Coal and Coke - Prices may enter a high - level oscillation stage, and trading should be cautious. The supply of coking coal is expected to be tight in the short - term, but there are also downward pressure factors. The exchange has adjusted trading limits, and "anti - involution" has affected the market [16]. Ferroalloys - The price bubble of silicon - based ferroalloys has disappeared. The medium - to - long - term view is to short on rallies. Strategies such as long the spread between ferrosilicon and silicomanganese or reverse spreads of silicomanganese can be considered [17]. Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash can be shorted on rallies, and glass should be observed for now. The supply of soda ash has returned to a high level, and there is potential delivery pressure. The glass market has seen a decline in spot prices and an expected increase in factory inventory [18]. 4. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Zinc - Social inventories are increasing, and the inventory inflection point may have arrived. Refinery production is accelerating, and demand is weak, so zinc prices are expected to decline [19]. Lithium Carbonate - The market expects a production cut in Jiangxi. If it happens, it will be beneficial to lithium carbonate prices, and the short - term trend is expected to be strong [21]. Industrial Silicon - The main contradiction is the resumption progress of large - scale manufacturers. The market is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to supply - side policies and downstream photovoltaic policies [22]. Polysilicon - The policy expectation has cooled down, and the market may return to fundamental and warehouse - receipt games. The supply is in surplus, and attention should be paid to whether policies can boost terminal demand [23]. 5. Agricultural Products Cotton - Cotton prices are under pressure to rebound. It is recommended to short on rallies. International and domestic demand is weak, and there are concerns about future production increases [25][26]. Sugar - Domestic sugar prices are under pressure due to expected increases in imported processed sugar. However, low - absorption demand during the Mid - Autumn and National Day holidays should be noted. International sugar supply is expected to be in surplus [28][29]. Eggs - The 09 contract price has reached a record low. It is recommended to short on rallies and be cautious about bottom - fishing. Supply pressure during the Mid - Autumn Festival is large, and demand is currently weak [31]. Apples - A light - position positive spread strategy is recommended. Pay attention to the listing price and consumption of new - season apples [32][33]. Corn - Corn prices are expected to oscillate within a range. Supply and demand are both under pressure, but there is also bottom support. It is recommended to focus on market sentiment and policy implementation [34]. Red Dates - It is recommended to observe. The production is still uncertain, and the market is affected by various news [35]. Pigs - Short - term spot market is supply - strong and demand - weak. It is recommended to short near - month contracts and consider a 9 - 1 reverse spread strategy [35]. 6. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - OPEC+ is increasing supply, but the growth space is limited. Demand is affected by trade uncertainties. The market may shift to a supply - surplus situation, and it is advisable to short on rallies [38]. Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices follow crude oil. The market has no main logic, and factors such as sanctions and seasonal demand affect the price [39]. Plastics - Polyolefins are expected to continue to oscillate weakly. Supply pressure is high, and demand is relatively weak [40]. Rubber - Rubber prices are expected to oscillate slightly in the short - term. Short - term long positions can be considered after a pull - back, but be cautious about chasing high prices [41]. Methanol - Methanol follows the overall commodity trend. Supply is weak, and inventory is increasing. It is recommended to sell call options [42]. Caustic Soda - The supply of caustic soda in Shandong is high, and the sales pressure of chlor - alkali enterprises is obvious. The price is expected to decline, and a short - bias strategy is recommended [44]. Asphalt - Asphalt follows crude oil. The market has no main logic, and it is in a seasonal off - season with slow inventory reduction [45]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - LPG prices are in a downward trend. Supply is abundant, and demand is weak in the short - term. The price may follow crude oil [46]. Pulp - The pulp market is expected to oscillate. The macro - sentiment has cooled down, and the fundamentals are weak. Attention should be paid to port inventory reduction and spot trading [47]. Logs - Log prices have increased. The market is affected by capital, and short - term observation is recommended. Hedging can be considered at high prices [47]. Urea - Urea prices are expected to oscillate upward. Domestic demand has improved, and export factors may support the price, but the actual export situation needs further observation [48].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, represented by Daly, indicates that policy adjustments may be necessary in the coming months due to a softening labor market and the need to recalibrate monetary policy to address various risks affecting its targets [1] Group 1 - The labor market has shown signs of weakness, and further slowdown is deemed undesirable [1] - Tariffs are unlikely to continue pushing inflation in a manner that would require monetary policy intervention [1] - The Federal Reserve has significant work ahead to bring inflation down to the target rate of 2% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the recent U.S. non-farm payroll report has led to increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with several officials signaling a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy [2][4]. - The July non-farm payroll report showed only 73,000 jobs added, with significant downward revisions for May and June, indicating a potential turning point in the economy [4]. - Federal Reserve officials, including Cook, Waller, and Bowman, have expressed concerns about the labor market and suggested that rate cuts may be necessary to prevent further deterioration [4][5]. Group 2 - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September has risen to 92%, with a 50% chance of a total reduction of 75 basis points by the end of the year [6]. - President Trump is actively working to shape a more compliant Federal Reserve, with recent appointments reflecting political influences [8][9]. - The resignation of Fed Governor Kugler has opened a vacancy that Trump plans to fill soon, with potential candidates being considered for both the vacant position and the future chairmanship [9][10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the July employment report is concerning and may indicate a turning point for the U.S. economy, as stated by Federal Reserve Governor Cook [1] - The U.S. labor market has sharply cooled in recent months, with only 73,000 jobs added in July, which is below expectations, and a downward revision of nearly 260,000 jobs in the previous two months [1] - The unemployment rate increased from 4.1% in June to 4.2% in July, reflecting the labor market's instability [1] Group 2 - Ongoing uncertainty is likened to a tax burden for businesses, with leaders spending significant time managing this uncertainty, as noted by Cook and supported by Boston Fed President Susan Collins [2] - Collins emphasized that uncertainty affects not only business investment but also pricing decisions, leading to a wait-and-see attitude among businesses, especially after experiencing high inflation [2] - Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari indicated that the employment report and other signs of economic slowdown suggest that a rate cut may be appropriate in the "near term," with expectations of two rate cuts by the end of 2025 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Brazil indicates that future monetary policy steps can be adjusted and will not hesitate to resume the interest rate hike cycle if necessary [1] Group 1 - The Central Bank is open to modifying its monetary policy approach based on economic conditions [1] - There is a clear signal that the Central Bank is prepared to take decisive action to combat inflation if required [1] - The statement reflects the Central Bank's commitment to maintaining economic stability and controlling inflation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Bank of America suggests that the Bank of Japan may signal a shift towards a less dovish stance in its upcoming monetary policy meeting, influenced by a recent trade agreement with the United States that has reduced significant uncertainty [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Monetary Policy Outlook** - The market widely expects the Bank of Japan to maintain its policy interest rate at 0.5% during the upcoming meeting [1] - There is speculation that the Bank of Japan may adopt a less dovish tone due to the recent trade agreement with the United States [1] - **Impact of Trade Agreement** - The trade agreement between Japan and the United States has alleviated a major source of uncertainty, which the Bank of Japan previously cited as a reason for delaying tightening policies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strong performance of the US dollar driven by global economic recovery, improved trade relations, and central bank policies, particularly the Federal Reserve's tightening measures [1][3][5]. Group 1: Global Economic Recovery - From 2023 to 2024, the global economy is showing signs of recovery from the pandemic, with improved trade relations between China and the US contributing to increased trade confidence [3][4]. - The US, as the largest economy, directly influences the demand for the dollar through its trade recovery [3][4]. Group 2: Central Bank Policies - Central banks worldwide are tightening monetary policies in response to inflation pressures, which supports the dollar's strength [3][4]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes enhance the dollar's attractiveness and tighten its supply in the international market, further driving its appreciation [3][4][5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The interplay between trade optimism and central bank policies reveals deeper market logic, with the dollar serving as a key reserve and transaction currency amid global uncertainties [4][5]. - The dollar's status as a safe-haven currency remains significant, especially in the context of ongoing geopolitical risks and trade tensions [4][5][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The dollar's future strength will depend on various factors, including the pace of global economic recovery and the monetary policies of other major economies [5][6][7]. - Potential challenges to the dollar's dominance may arise from shifts in global capital flows and the internationalization of other currencies like the euro and yuan [6][7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the production industry, attention should be paid to the progress of "anti - involution" governance. The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation have solicited public opinions on the draft amendment to the Price Law of the People's Republic of China, aiming to clarify the standards for identifying improper price behaviors and regulate market price order. Additionally, the automobile replacement subsidy policies in many places have been adjusted [1]. - In the service industry, attention should be paid to the mid - year monetary policy adjustment. On July 25, the central bank conducted a 400 - billion - yuan Medium - term Lending Facility (MLF) operation, with a net investment of 100 billion yuan, marking the fifth consecutive month of increased MLF roll - overs [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Upstream - In the black sector, the prices of upstream black products have been continuously rising [2]. - In the agricultural sector, egg prices have been on a continuous upward trend [2]. Midstream - In the chemical industry, the operating rates of polyester and PX have remained stable [3]. - In the energy sector, the coal consumption has been increasing recently [3]. Downstream - In the real estate sector, the sales of commercial housing in third - tier cities have slightly rebounded [3]. - In the service sector, the number of summer flight schedules has increased [3]. Industry Credit Spread Tracking - As of July 25, the industry credit spreads of various sectors showed different trends. For example, the credit spread of the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector was 58.97 (previous week: 60.41), and that of the real estate sector was 99.89 (previous week: 101.86) [48]. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - As of July 24, the prices of various products showed different trends. For instance, the spot price of eggs was 6.9 yuan/kg, with a year - on - year increase of 19.24%; the spot price of WTI crude oil was 65.3 US dollars/barrel, with a year - on - year decrease of 1.70% [49].

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to maintain its key interest rates unchanged for the first time after eight consecutive rate cuts since June 2024, signaling a pause in its monetary policy adjustments [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The ECB has kept the deposit facility rate at 2.00%, the main refinancing operations rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending facility rate at 2.40% [1]. - The decision aligns with market expectations, as over 95% of rate futures indicated a likelihood of maintaining rates [1]. Group 2: Economic Context - Current inflation is at the ECB's medium-term target of 2%, with domestic price pressures easing and wage growth slowing [1]. - The Eurozone economy shows resilience amid a complex global environment, although uncertainty remains, particularly due to trade disputes [1]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The ECB's decision has enhanced the attractiveness of euro assets, leading to a short-term rise in the euro against the dollar, surpassing the 1.1757 mark [1]. - The market anticipates that the ECB may delay its final rate cut until December or potentially end the rate-cutting cycle after September [1]. Group 4: Diverging Opinions within the ECB - There are differing views within the ECB regarding the direction of monetary policy, with "dovish" officials advocating for a 25 basis point cut in September, while "hawkish" officials warn against further cuts due to potential asset bubbles [1]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The ECB's decision marks a new phase in Eurozone monetary policy, with the euro's short-term upward potential dependent on the hawkishness of future ECB statements [2]. - Long-term, the ECB must balance economic recovery, inflation management, and geopolitical risks, which will influence global capital flows and asset allocation [2].

Core Insights - Gold prices faced rejection at the critical level of $3440, leading to a pullback [1] - The market sentiment is influenced by optimism surrounding US trade agreements and strong earnings from US tech companies [2][3] - The upcoming PMI data from the US and EU is expected to impact market expectations regarding monetary policy adjustments by the Fed and ECB [4][5] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Influences - The dollar is weakening due to positive market sentiment from US trade agreements and strong earnings reports, particularly from Alphabet [2][3] - Investors are optimistic about trade agreements between the US and Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines, as well as potential agreements with the EU [3] - The market is closely monitoring the ongoing disputes between President Trump and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell [6] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold Prices - After being rejected near the $3440 resistance, gold prices are testing the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $3377 [10] - For a sustained upward trend, gold needs to break above the $3440 resistance, targeting the June 16 high of $3453 [11] - If sellers maintain pressure, gold could fall below the support level at $3377, with further support around $3340 [12]