Core Viewpoint - Canadian Prime Minister Carney indicated that despite a positive conversation with U.S. President Trump, the U.S. is unlikely to lift tariffs in the near future [2] Trade Relations - Carney and Trump discussed a range of issues including trade, geopolitics, and labor during their conversation [2] - Canada is seeking to negotiate an agreement to eliminate or reduce U.S. tariffs on various Canadian goods due to its heavy reliance on trade with the U.S. [2] Tariff Developments - On July 31, Trump signed an executive order increasing tariffs on certain Canadian goods to 35%, effective August 1, excluding products covered by the USMCA [2] - Following a conversation on August 21 regarding the trade war and other international issues, Carney announced on August 22 that Canada would cancel several retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods, while temporarily maintaining tariffs on U.S. automobiles, steel, and aluminum [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. President Trump has no plans to lower tariffs on India, which were recently doubled to 50% as a punishment for India's purchase of Russian oil [1] - Trump criticized India's high tariffs, stating that they have led to an imbalanced trade relationship, with India imposing some of the highest tariffs in the world [1] - The tariffs affect over 55% of goods exported from India to the U.S., which is India's largest market [1] Group 2 - The Indian government condemned the U.S. tariffs as unfair and plans to continue purchasing Russian oil as long as it is economically beneficial [2] - India has challenged U.S. tariffs on certain copper products at the World Trade Organization (WTO), arguing that the high tariffs restrict its exporters [2] - Trump is closely monitoring Russia's actions regarding negotiations with Ukraine and hinted at considering additional measures if talks do not progress [2] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that both the U.S. and India are open to resolving their tensions, with India's Commerce Minister expressing hope for a trade agreement by November [3] - The Indian Minister indicated that geopolitical issues are intertwined with trade discussions, emphasizing the desire to return to normalcy in U.S.-India trade relations [3]

Core Viewpoint - Trump criticized India's high tariffs on U.S. goods, claiming it has led to a one-sided trade disaster, and suggested that India's recent proposal to reduce tariffs to zero is too late [2] Group 1: Trade Relations - Trump signed an executive order on July 31, imposing a 25% tariff on Indian goods starting August 7, which was later increased to an additional 25% due to India's import of Russian oil, resulting in a total tariff rate of 50% on Indian products [4] - The U.S.-India trade negotiations have been suspended amid these tariff increases [4] Group 2: Trade Data - In 2024, the total trade volume between the U.S. and India is projected to be approximately $129.2 billion, with a trade deficit of $45.7 billion for the U.S., reflecting a 5.4% increase from 2023 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. President Trump criticized India's late proposal to reduce tariffs on U.S. goods to zero after the U.S. imposed a 50% tariff on Indian imports, indicating that India should have made such moves years ago [1][2]. Trade Relations - On July 31, Trump signed an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on Indian goods starting August 7, which was later increased to an additional 25% due to India's importation of Russian oil, resulting in a total tariff rate of 50% on Indian imports [4]. - The U.S. and India had previously engaged in trade negotiations, which have now been suspended following the tariff increases [4]. Trade Data - In 2024, the total trade volume between the U.S. and India is projected to be approximately $129.2 billion, with a trade deficit of $45.7 billion for the U.S., reflecting a 5.4% increase compared to 2023 [4].

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in September is 10.4%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 89.6% [1] - In October, the probability of maintaining rates is 4.9%, with a cumulative 25 basis point cut probability of 47.3% and a 50 basis point cut probability of 47.9% [1] Group 2: European Union Trade Relations - The President of the European Council, Costa, stated that the EU does not welcome tariffs and will defend its sovereignty and the interests of its citizens and businesses [2] - Costa acknowledged that many Europeans feel frustrated with the EU's passive stance in trade with the U.S. and the Ukraine issue [2] - The EU is working to establish stronger global trade and industrial partnerships to enhance predictability and resilience, reducing strategic dependencies [2] Group 3: Military and Geopolitical Tensions - German Defense Minister Pistorius refuted EU Commission President von der Leyen's claims about deploying European troops to Ukraine, stating she lacks the authority to discuss such matters [3] - The German government has remained largely silent on discussions regarding sending peacekeeping troops to Ukraine, deeming it "premature" [3] - Venezuelan President Maduro claimed that Venezuela faces the greatest threat in a century from U.S. military presence, with significant naval deployments in the Caribbean [4] Group 4: Precious Metals Market - Gold and silver futures prices reached historical highs, with COMEX gold peaking at $3,557.1 per ounce and silver at $41.64 per ounce [5] - The surge in precious metals prices is driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and heightened risk aversion in the market [5][6] - Silver's performance is bolstered by strong industrial demand and a persistent supply deficit, particularly in solar energy and electronics [6][8] Group 5: Economic Indicators and Future Outlook - The core PCE index in the U.S. has shown a continuous rise, and the second-quarter GDP was revised up to 3.3%, indicating persistent inflation risks [7] - The demand for gold remains strong despite increased mining supply, while central banks continue to maintain a steady net purchase of gold [8] - The outlook for precious metals prices remains bullish, with potential further increases if U.S. economic data shows a moderate decline and the Fed proceeds with rate cuts [9]

Core Viewpoint - The relationship between the United States and India is deteriorating due to the imposition of a 50% tariff on Indian goods by President Trump, citing India's significant purchase of Russian oil and high tariffs on U.S. exports [2] Group 1: U.S.-India Trade Relations - President Trump criticized India's high tariffs, claiming they are the highest compared to any other country, which hampers U.S. companies' ability to sell products in India [2] - Trump stated that India exports a large volume of goods to the U.S. while the U.S. exports very little to India, describing the situation as a "one-sided disaster" [2] Group 2: India's Response - Indian Prime Minister Modi emphasized that India will continue to strengthen its position despite external pressures [2] - Modi's statement indicates a commitment to resist challenges and maintain India's trade policies [2]

Group 1 - Gold futures are currently trading around 795.68, with a reported price of 795.46 per gram, reflecting a 1.42% increase, and a high of 795.92 and a low of 785.70 [1] - The short-term outlook for gold futures appears bullish [1] Group 2 - Following the increase of tariffs on Indian goods to 50% by the US, India's Minister of Commerce and Industry, Piyush Goyal, stated that India will not "yield" but will focus on exploring new markets [3] - Goyal emphasized India's openness to signing free trade agreements while asserting that the government will introduce measures to support various industries and boost exports [3] - Goyal expressed confidence that India's export figures for this year will exceed those of 2024-2025 [3] Group 3 - Key resistance levels for gold futures are identified between 795 and 840 per gram, while important support levels are between 772 and 830 per gram [3]

日本经济再生担当大臣赤泽亮正29日表示，就日美关税谈判问题，他至少还需要访美一次进行磋商。 日本第一生命经济研究所首席经济分析师熊野英生认为，由于美国政策多变，日美关税谈判仍然存在极大不确定性，但美国关税对日本经济的负面影响已 逐步显现。 综合 央视新闻、央广网 来源：杭州日报 据日本财务省公布数据显示，7月日本对美汽车出口额同比下降28.4%至4220亿日元，出口量同比减少3.2%至12.35万辆。熊野英生表示，车企出口量减 少，可能加剧日本的失业和消费低迷问题。 日本第一生命经济研究所 首席经济分析师 熊野英生：日本全国各地有多个汽车产业聚集地，部分地区已经公布了裁员计划。那么在这些地区雇佣减少， 就会导致消费减少。这种连锁反应将会对当地经济产生冲击。 由于日美贸易协议有关将输美汽车及汽车零部件关税下调至15%的内容尚未实施，目前日本输美汽车仍面临高达27.5%的关税。熊野英生表示，当下的高 关税给日本出口企业带来了很大压力。 日本第一生命经济研究所首席经济分析师 熊野英生：日本企业依旧面临沉重的关税压力，不得不将关税成本大幅转移至售价上，必然会抑制在美国市场 的销售量。 ...

Group 1: Currency Impact - The Indian Rupee has depreciated significantly, reaching a historical low of 88.3125 against the US dollar, with a daily drop of 0.8% [1][2] - The depreciation is attributed to concerns over a 50% tariff imposed by the US, which is expected to negatively impact India's economic growth and corporate earnings [2][3] - The financial officer of Finrex treasury Advisors LLP indicated that the currency is under pressure due to tariff concerns, capital outflows, fixed dollar pricing, and month-end demand [2] Group 2: Economic Forecast - Citigroup estimates that the tariffs could reduce India's annual economic growth rate by 0.6-0.8 percentage points [2] - The Indian government anticipates that the US tariffs will impact exports valued at $48.2 billion [3] - The macroeconomic consulting firm Capital Economics predicts a decline in India's economic growth by 0.8 percentage points for both this year and next year due to the tariffs [3] Group 3: Trade Relations - The US has officially implemented a 25% punitive tariff on Indian goods, which, combined with existing tariffs, results in a total tariff rate of 50% on various products [2][3] - The cancellation of a US trade delegation's visit to India has delayed negotiations for a new bilateral trade agreement [4] - Japan's economic minister canceled a planned visit to the US for tariff negotiations, indicating ongoing uncertainties in international trade discussions [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The Indian Rupee has depreciated significantly against the US Dollar, reaching a historical low due to concerns over tariffs and capital outflows, making it the worst-performing currency in Asia this year [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Depreciation - On August 29, the Indian Rupee fell by 0.8% to 88.3125 against the US Dollar, marking a historical low [1][2]. - The depreciation is attributed to fears regarding a 50% tariff imposed by the US, which is expected to negatively impact India's economic growth and corporate earnings [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Impact - Citigroup estimates that the tariffs could reduce India's annual economic growth rate by 0.6-0.8 percentage points [2]. - The Indian government anticipates that the tariffs will affect exports worth $48.2 billion [4]. - The tariffs consist of a 25% punitive tariff on goods due to India's import of Russian oil, combined with an existing 25% tariff on various products, leading to a total tariff rate of 50% on items such as clothing, jewelry, and chemicals [2][4]. Group 3: Trade Relations - The US-India trade negotiations have been delayed due to the cancellation of a US trade delegation's visit to India, which was scheduled for late August [5]. - The US Treasury Secretary has indicated that trade agreements with India and other partners are still pending, with hopes to finalize negotiations by the end of October [5]. Group 4: Sector-Specific Concerns - Analysts warn that the 50% tariffs could severely impact small businesses in India, particularly in textiles, seafood, and jewelry, with reports of order cancellations from the US [3][4]. - The potential for large-scale unemployment in key export regions of India is a significant concern, as the country may lose its position in global value chains [4].