Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivered a significant speech at the Jackson Hole global central bank conference, indicating a strong signal for potential interest rate cuts and a return to the traditional 2% inflation target, abandoning the controversial Flexible Average Inflation Target (FAIT) [1][3][7]. Market Reaction - Following Powell's speech, the U.S. stock market experienced a surge, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising over 900 points, closing at a record high. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 also recorded their largest single-day gains since May, with the market fear index (VIX) dropping by 12% [2][3]. - The probability of a rate cut in September jumped from 75% to 90% immediately after Powell's remarks, reflecting market optimism [3][5]. Economic Challenges - Powell acknowledged the challenging situation facing the Federal Reserve, noting a conflict between low inflation and a healthy labor market. He highlighted a significant slowdown in job growth, with an average of only 35,000 jobs added per month, far below the expected levels for 2024 [4][12]. - He emphasized the need for caution in adjusting economic restrictions, suggesting that rate cuts would not be implemented all at once [4]. Policy Framework Changes - Powell announced the abandonment of the FAIT framework, which allowed inflation to exceed 2% for a period. This decision was made in light of the framework's failure during the post-pandemic inflation surge [7][12]. - The Federal Reserve will revert to a more traditional inflation target of 2%, with a focus on anchoring inflation expectations [7][8]. Legacy and Independence Concerns - Powell's tenure is marked by a "fiscal dominance" era, where government fiscal policy has overshadowed monetary policy, raising concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve [12][14]. - The combination of significant government spending and aggressive monetary easing has led to a situation where the Fed's independence is perceived to be at risk, potentially leading to a "debt death spiral" as warned by Ray Dalio [12][14]. Future Implications - Powell's successor will face the challenge of controlling inflation without triggering a severe economic downturn while maintaining the Fed's independence amid political and fiscal pressures [16].

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted at potential interest rate cuts in the coming months despite ongoing inflation risks [1][5][4] - Market expectations for a September rate cut surged, with a 91.1% probability of a 25 basis point cut [1][2] - Major U.S. stock indices rose significantly, with the Dow Jones reaching a historical high and the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index increasing by 2.73% [1][6][7] Group 2 - International precious metals futures saw widespread gains, with COMEX gold futures rising by 1.05% to $3417.20 per ounce and silver futures up by 2.10% to $38.88 per ounce [2] - The cryptocurrency market experienced a rally, with Ethereum surpassing its previous all-time high, reflecting a 250% increase since its April low [3] Group 3 - Tesla's stock rose over 6% following news of a partnership with Volcano Engine to enhance its smart cockpit experience [6] - Intel's shares increased by 5.53% after announcing a deal with the U.S. government for an $8.9 billion investment [6] Group 4 - Chinese assets showed strong performance, with notable gains in stocks like Miniso and NIO, reflecting growing optimism among foreign investors regarding China's economic outlook [7][8] - Morgan Stanley highlighted the valuation discount of Chinese stocks compared to developed markets, indicating potential investment opportunities [8]

Core Viewpoint - Cleveland Fed President Harmack maintains a cautious stance on interest rate cuts as long as inflation remains a threat, emphasizing the need for moderate tightening to bring inflation back to target levels [1] Group 1: Inflation Concerns - Harmack stated that inflation has been above target for four consecutive years and must be controlled [1] - She expressed concerns about prematurely shifting to a loose monetary policy, which could reignite inflation pressures [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - This viewpoint contrasts sharply with market sentiment, as Fed Chair Powell indicated that current conditions "may require" policy easing, leading to a significant market bet on a rate cut in September [1] - According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders estimate a nearly 90% probability of a rate cut by the FOMC in September [1] Group 3: Neutral Interest Rate - Harmack revealed her assessment of the so-called "neutral interest rate" is higher than that of most Fed officials [1] - As a former Goldman Sachs executive, she will not have voting rights on the FOMC until 2026 [1] Group 4: Other Hawkish Voices - Kansas City Fed President Schmid also expressed skepticism about rate cuts in a recent interview [1] - Schmid is a voting member of the FOMC this year but will not have voting rights again until 2028 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current economic situation indicates an increase in downside risks to employment, which may necessitate interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3][4][5]. Labor Market Analysis - The labor market is described as being in a "peculiar balance" due to significant slowdowns in both labor supply and demand, suggesting increased risks to employment [4][12]. - Recent employment growth has slowed to an average of only 35,000 jobs per month, significantly below the projected 168,000 jobs per month for 2024 [12]. - The unemployment rate has slightly increased to 4.2%, but remains historically low, indicating stability in labor market indicators [12]. Inflation and Tariff Impact - Short-term inflation risks are skewed to the upside, while employment risks are skewed to the downside, creating a challenging situation for monetary policy [5][16]. - Higher tariffs have begun to push up prices, with the total PCE price rising by 2.6% year-over-year, and core PCE increasing by 2.9% [14][15]. - The assumption that tariff impacts on prices are mostly one-time adjustments is gaining confidence, although the timing and extent of these impacts remain uncertain [8][15]. Monetary Policy Framework Adjustments - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework has been revised to remove the goal of achieving an average inflation rate of 2% over time and the reliance on deviations from full employment as a decision-making basis [5][21]. - The revised framework emphasizes the need for flexibility in monetary policy to adapt to various economic conditions and structural changes [18][22]. - The commitment to maintaining long-term inflation expectations anchored at 2% is reiterated as essential for achieving both maximum employment and price stability [23][25].

来源：滚动播报 8月22日，美联储公布了其五年一次的货币政策框架审查结果。该框架是一份旨在指导其货币政策决策 的战略文件。 1、政策制定者澄清了2020年的一项转变，即官员们不会在失业率较低时加息以抑制潜在 通胀。美联储主席鲍威尔表示，官员们一致认为，货币政策决策不应"仅仅"基于他们对长期失业率应稳 定在何处的估计。但他表示，2020年的这一变化从未旨在"永久放弃"在劳动力市场因预期通胀上升而强 劲时加息的能力。 2、官员们删除了表示他们只会应对充分就业"不足"的措辞。长期目标和货币政策战 略声明现在更加明确地指出，"就业率有时可能高于对充分就业的实时评估，但这并不一定会对物价稳 定造成风险"。 3、美联储官员重申了2%的通胀目标以及稳定通胀预期的重要性。但政策制定者放弃了 2020年推出的"补偿策略"方案，该方案要求容忍高于目标的通胀，以弥补低于目标的时期。 4、该战略 文件现在表示，"货币政策战略旨在促进广泛经济条件下的充分就业和物价稳定。" 鲍威尔表示，这与 之前将低利率描述为"经济格局的决定性特征"的措辞形成了鲜明对比。 该框架的更新已获得联邦公开 市场委员会（FOMC）的一致批准，官员们表示，他们计 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the current economic situation suggests an increase in downside risks to employment, which may necessitate a rate cut [1][2][3] Economic Conditions and Outlook - The labor market remains close to maximum employment, but the unemployment rate has risen by nearly one percentage point, a development historically associated with recessions [4][6] - GDP growth has significantly slowed to 1.2% in the first half of the year, reflecting a decrease in consumer spending [6] - The labor market is experiencing a "peculiar balance" due to a significant slowdown in both labor supply and demand, indicating rising employment risks [5][6] Inflation Dynamics - Short-term inflation risks are tilted upward, while employment risks are tilted downward, creating a challenging scenario for monetary policy [3][8] - Higher tariffs have begun to push up prices in certain categories, with the PCE price index rising by 2.6% over the past 12 months, and core PCE prices increasing by 2.9% [6][7] - The impact of tariffs on consumer prices is expected to accumulate over the coming months, with significant uncertainty regarding timing and magnitude [7] Monetary Policy Implications - The current policy rate is closer to neutral than it was a year ago, allowing for cautious consideration of policy adjustments [8][9] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will base decisions on data assessments and their implications for economic outlook and risk balance [9] - The revised monetary policy framework aims to promote maximum employment and price stability under a variety of economic conditions [10][14]

在正式讲话之前，美联储官员的发言往往会提前透出一些信号。施密德在最近的采访中就明确指出，市场对9月降息的预期已经非常高涨——根据CME美联 储观察工具显示，下调25个基点的概率接近80%。不过，他同时提醒，尽管市场已经押注降息，美联储在最终决定是否调整政策利率时，仍然需要非常清 晰、可靠的数据支撑。而从现在到9月之间，还有不少细节和变数需要继续观察和讨论。 施密德坦言，他不认为美联储在实现2%的通胀目标上已经取得足够进展："最后一英里的路很艰难。通胀的最后一点增幅，真的会带来实际成本。我个人认 为，通胀数据可能更接近3%，而不是2%，我们还有工作要做。" 在政治压力方面，美联储也面临诸多挑战。白宫持续呼吁降息，理由是关税不会加剧通胀，同时降息有助于刺激房地产市场并降低政府借贷成本。近期，美 联储还因内部理事涉及抵押贷款争议而登上舆论头条。对此，施密德表示，作为央行专业人士，美联储内部会妥善处理相关事务。 此外，最新公布的7月份会议纪要显示，美联储官员仍然关注通胀和失业问题，而施密德则认为劳动力市场整体稳健。对于政策制定者承受的各种压力，他 用了一个颇有画面感的比喻："钢铁是在烈火中炼成的。让我们开始对话，让公 ...

哈玛克讲话前，周四稍早，今年拥有FOMC会议投票权的堪萨斯城联储主席施密德也在杰克逊霍尔年会现场表态，他对广泛预期的9月降息表现犹豫。 本周五美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会讲话前，已有美联储官员表现出不看好下月降息的态度，似乎在给期待鲍威尔释放降息信号的人"打预防 针"。 美东时间21日周四，两名美联储官员在杰克逊霍尔年会当地接收采访。其中，明年拥有货币政策委员会FOMC会议投票权的克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克明确表 示，从现有的经济数据看，FOMC可能并不会在9月降息。她还说，如果明天就要做决定，她不会支持降息。 美股早盘尾声时，哈玛克不支持很快降息的讲话传出后，美国国债收益率集体加速上行。 基准10年期美国国债的收益率升约4.7个基点，接近4.34%，美股午盘进一步升至4.34%上方。对利率前景更敏感的2年期美债收益率升超4.6个基点，升破 3.80%，接近三周来高位。 施密德说，他并不确信美联储在降低通胀方面取得了足够的进展。他估计，通胀水平可能更接近3%而不是2%，美联储在实现2%的通胀目标方面仍有工作要 做。 施密德特别强调了实现通胀目标面对的挑战。他说："最后一英里似乎很困难，我和很多人都认为，系 ...

亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克周四表示，他仍认为今年可能降息一次，与6月的预测一致，但补充称劳动 力市场走势"潜在令人担忧"，值得关注。 下任美联储主席候选人之一、前圣路易斯联储主席布拉德周四呼吁今年降息1个百分点，并表示2026年 还有进一步降息空间。 "目前利率略高，我认为在2026年之前我们可以降息约100个基点——我认为这将从9月会议的降息开 始，今年晚些时候可能还会跟进，"布拉德周四在福克斯商业频道表示。 布拉德现任普渡大学商学院院长，他称已与财政部长贝森特就自己的美联储主席候选资格进行过沟通， 计划在劳动节（9月1日）后"可能"安排一次面谈。 至于明年的降息前景，布拉德表示将取决于数据表现。他还提到需要维护美元的储备地位。 相比之下，现任美联储官员的降息立场显得更加谨慎。 美国总统特朗普及其他白宫官员一直在施压美联储降息，坚称关税并未加剧通胀，且需要更低利率来提 振房地产市场、降低政府借贷成本。 "我目前大致仍持这一观点，"博斯蒂克周四在亚特兰大商会组织的活动中提及其6月预测时表示，"但我 想说，在当下，任何预测或展望都存在很大的置信区间，我不会固守任何结论。" 博斯蒂克还表示，他倾向于美联储一旦开始行 ...

中新社约翰内斯堡8月20日电 (记者 孙翔)南非统计局20日公布数据显示，7月消费者价格指数(CPI)同比 上涨3.5%，高于6月的3%，符合市场预期。这一数值达到近10个月新高，降低了央行下月再次降息的可 能性。 通胀走高主要受食品价格上涨及水电费上调推动。南非市政费率通常在每年7月随新财政预算一并调 整。2025年水费上涨12.1%，远高于2024年的7.5%；2025年电费上涨10.6%，略低于2024年的11.5%。 牛津经济非洲公司高级经济学家范德林德表示，7月通胀数据略高于央行偏好的3%水平，南非在压低通 胀预期方面仍面临挑战。南非金融服务公司天达(Investec)预测，2025年底消费者价格指数同比将升至约 4.0%，随后在2026年年中回落至约3.5%。 南非央行货币政策委员会将于9月18日公布下一次调息决定。范德林德预计今年内不会再有降息举措； 而天达首席经济学家安娜贝尔·毕晓普则认为，货币政策前景仍有进一步宽松空间。她表示，如果未来 两年通胀平均维持在3.0%水平，南非储备银行可能会进一步下调利率1.25个百分点。(完) 来源：中国新闻网 南非储备银行(央行)行长卡尼亚戈在7月末调息时表 ...