美联储米兰：有观点认为，通胀目标通过稳定预期仍能发挥积极作用。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Insights - The most actively traded December 2025 gold futures price increased by $26.6, closing at $4159.6 per ounce, with a rise of 0.64% [1] - December gold futures reached a historical high of $4190.90 per ounce overnight, while December silver futures hit a record high of $52.495 per ounce, although both closed significantly lower than their overnight peaks [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed will adjust interest rate policies based on economic outlook and risk balance, rather than following a predetermined path [1] - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut from the Fed later this month, with another expected in December, following a previous cut of the same magnitude in September [1] - Despite recent consolidation risks for gold and silver, Bank of America maintains that both metals will continue their upward trend, forecasting prices of $5000 per ounce for gold and $65 for silver next year [1] - On a technical level, December gold futures bulls hold a strong overall technical advantage, with the next upward target being a breakout above the solid resistance level of $4300, while bears aim to break below the solid technical support level of $3900 [1] Silver Futures - The December silver futures price decreased by 8.4 cents, closing at $50.345 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.17% [2]

在周四向明尼阿波利斯郊区某经济俱乐部发表的演讲中，巴尔着重强调了自己对通胀走向的担忧。他表 示，9月美联储官员的中位预测显示，通胀可能要到2027年底才能回归目标水平。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 美联储理事迈克尔·巴尔（Michael Barr）表示，考虑到物价仍在过快上涨，在进一步调整政策立场时应 谨慎行事。 巴尔周四指出，他仍担忧通胀可能持续高企，并认为美联储在推动通胀率回归2%目标的问题上不能掉 以轻心。这番言论暗示，对于投资者普遍预期的美联储在2025年剩余时间内继续降息的举措，巴尔可能 持怀疑态度——这为立场分歧的美联储政策委员会增添了投票变数。 巴尔于2022年由前总统拜登提名加入美联储理事会，担任负责银行监管的副主席。在美联储任职期间， 他的工作重心主要放在金融体系监管上。任职以来，巴尔在投票时始终与美联储主席鲍威尔保持一致， 但他对货币政策的看法与多数同事的共识频率较低。今年早些时候，巴尔卸任监管副主席一职，但仍保 留美联储理事席位。 堪萨斯城联储主席弗里·施密德（Jeffrey Schmid）立场偏鹰派，他与巴尔一样支持美联储上月的降息举 措，但在周一的演讲中 ...

Core Points - The Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting minutes indicate a majority support for a 25 basis point rate cut, with one dissenting vote advocating for a larger cut of 50 basis points due to a softening labor market and core inflation nearing the 2% target [1][4] Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is showing a complex picture, with a noticeable slowdown in real GDP growth in the first half of 2025. Although the unemployment rate remains low at 4.3% as of August, job growth has been weak, with non-farm payroll additions significantly below expectations in July and August [2][3] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a downward revision of over 900,000 jobs in the total employment figure for the 12 months ending March 2025 [2] Inflation and Market Expectations - As of August, the overall PCE price index rose by 2.7% year-on-year, while core PCE increased by 2.9%, both at high levels for the year. Most participants believe that tariff increases are contributing to inflationary pressures, although some noted that the impact has weakened compared to earlier expectations [2][3] - Financial market expectations for policy direction have shifted significantly, with nearly all surveyed anticipating a 25 basis point cut at the meeting, and almost half expecting another cut in October [2] Monetary Market Conditions - There are signs of short-term tension in the money market, with the secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) briefly rising above the minimum bid rate for the standing repo facility (SRF) due to a significant increase in the Treasury General Account balance [3] - The effective federal funds rate remains stable, but the minutes suggest that future money market rates may gradually exceed the management rate level [3] Labor Market Insights - The labor market shows a narrow range in the ratio of job vacancies to unemployed individuals at 1.0, with wage growth slowing. Recent data indicates that job growth is concentrated in a few sectors, and the unemployment rate among sensitive groups, such as young Black individuals, is rising [3][4] Policy Outlook - The committee emphasizes that the current economic outlook is highly uncertain, with the risks to employment outweighing inflationary pressures. A modest rate cut is aimed at supporting the full employment goal while reflecting subtle changes in risk balance [4] - The committee unanimously agrees to continue the balance sheet reduction process, with expectations that the System Open Market Account (SOMA) will be slightly above $6 trillion by the end of March 2026 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's work is independent of Trump's inflation targets, indicating a separation between political objectives and monetary policy [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve, represented by Milan, emphasizes that Trump's inflation goals do not influence its operations [1] - This statement reinforces the Fed's commitment to its mandate of controlling inflation and maintaining economic stability, regardless of external political pressures [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Logan stated that the current distance to achieving the inflation target remains significant [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is still far from its inflation target, indicating ongoing challenges in monetary policy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's official, Harker, indicated that the 2% inflation target will not be achieved until late 2027 or early 2028 [1] Group 1 - The timeline for reaching the 2% inflation target has been extended significantly, suggesting a prolonged period of elevated inflation [1] - This outlook may influence monetary policy decisions and market expectations regarding interest rates [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the U.S. personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index rose by 2.7% year-on-year in August, slightly higher than the 2.6% increase in July, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [1] - The core PCE price index, excluding volatile food and energy prices, also increased by 2.9% year-on-year in August, remaining unchanged from the previous month [1] - Both the overall and core PCE price indices are significantly above the Federal Reserve's long-term inflation target of 2%, posing challenges for future monetary policy adjustments [1] Group 2 - The increase in the PCE price index is attributed to the U.S. government's tariff policies, which have raised domestic prices and increased the economic burden on ordinary consumers [1] - The PCE price index is a key inflation indicator closely monitored by the Federal Reserve, serving as a critical reference for monetary policy formulation [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions on the U.S. equity market, highlighting that abundant liquidity is becoming a decisive factor in market pricing, with expectations of a bull market in U.S. stocks [1][2] - Following comments from Fed Chair Powell regarding high stock indices, major U.S. stock indices experienced a decline, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping an average of 79 basis points over three trading days [1] - The article suggests that Powell's remarks may be aimed at guiding market expectations regarding future rate cuts, as a stronger expectation of rate cuts could lead to a decline in the dollar index and reduced capital inflow into the U.S. [2][4] Group 2 - The article notes that the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio has exceeded 123%, significantly above the IMF's warning threshold of 90%, which may explain the ongoing decline in the dollar index and increased sensitivity of overseas bond markets to U.S. economic data [3][4] - It emphasizes the challenge for the Federal Reserve to balance economic growth and inflation control, particularly in light of the government's tariff policies, which complicate the task of maintaining a stable economic environment [4] - The article concludes that a decrease in the federal funds rate is likely, but the Fed faces the challenge of preventing the market from forming a one-sided consensus on future rate expectations [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing deepening internal divisions regarding future interest rate adjustments, with contrasting views among officials on the necessity and timing of rate cuts [2][3][7]. Group 1: Divergent Views on Rate Cuts - Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid expressed concerns that excessive rate cuts could hinder inflation from returning to the Fed's 2% target, indicating that the current policy stance is only slightly restrictive [2][3]. - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee voiced unease about aggressive rate cuts, fearing they could obstruct the return of inflation to target levels, and highlighted signs of stagflation risks [5][6]. - Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman and new board member Stephen Milan advocated for more aggressive rate cuts, with Milan suggesting a rapid adjustment to neutral rates through a series of 50 basis point cuts [7][8]. Group 2: Current Economic Indicators - Schmid noted that while inflation remains high, the labor market is cooling, and he emphasized a data-dependent approach to future rate decisions [4]. - Goolsbee pointed out that the current economic environment shows signs of stagflation, and he remains open to further rate cuts if data supports a stable employment outlook and inflation returning to 2% [5][6]. - Daly, the San Francisco Fed President, expressed support for the recent rate cut and anticipated further reductions, asserting that the economy is not heading towards recession [9].