Core Points - The US Dollar Index has seen a short-term increase of approximately 20 points, currently reported at 99.30 [1] - US stock futures are experiencing minimal fluctuations, with the Nasdaq 100 futures currently up by 0.15% [1] - The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond has slightly risen, currently reported at 4.333% [1] - Spot gold prices are showing little short-term volatility, currently reported at $3323.09 per ounce [1]

Core Viewpoint - Following the release of a series of data from the United States, spot gold prices experienced a slight decline, currently reported at $3326 per ounce, while the US Dollar Index (DXY) saw a minor increase, currently at 99.15 [1] Group 1 - Spot gold prices decreased slightly after the US data release, now at $3326 per ounce [1] - The US Dollar Index (DXY) increased slightly, currently at 99.15 [1]

美元指数DXY短线小幅走高，现报99.07。 美元指数 ...

Group 1 - The US Dollar Index has increased by approximately 10 points, currently at 99.09 [1] - US stock futures show minimal fluctuations, with the Nasdaq 100 futures maintaining a rise of about 0.2% [1] - The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond has risen, currently reported at 4.333% [1] Group 2 - Spot gold prices have shown little fluctuation, currently at $3327.45 per ounce [1]

格隆汇7月30日｜美元指数DXY突破99，日内涨0.13%。 ...

美元指数 美元指数DXY突破99，日内涨0.13%。 ...

ATFX汇评：明日2:00，美联储将公布7月利率决议结果，主流预期认为其将维持4.25~4.5%的基准利率不 变。当日2：30，美联储主席鲍威尔将召开货币政策新闻发布会， 重点关注其对利率路径、经济数据、贸易 问题的看法，如果表态乐观，美元指数将受提振。 美国总统特朗普多次施压美联储主席鲍威尔，希望其能尽快降低利率。上周，特朗普亲赴美联储总部，表 面上是去视察总部大楼的翻新情况，实际上是"敲打"美联储主席鲍威尔，暗示其尽快降息。如果鲍威尔仍旧 坚持暂停降息政策，特朗普极有可能以总部大楼翻新严重超预算的名义，让鲍威尔主动辞职。特朗普的施 压是不可忽略的因素，美联储有一定概率屈服于这种压力，本周利率决议重启降息的概率并不低。 之前我们一直强调W底结构，现在该结构已经得到确认。走势结构角度看，日线级别，美元指数处于筑底 后的反弹状态，但中长期的空头趋势依然具有破坏力。最新波段为上涨，最高点达到99.11点，距离上方第 一阻力位99.39较近。第二个阻力位是100点整数关口，如果该点位被突破，美元指数空转多的趋势基本可以 确定。现阶段关注前一轮短期下跌波段的1.382~1.618分位的阻力区间，对应价格为99.65~ ...

Core Insights - Gold is viewed as a special financial asset with proven safe-haven attributes and value storage functions, making it a stable element in investment portfolios [1] - The pricing of gold is influenced by multiple factors, including real interest rates, the US dollar exchange rate, geopolitical tensions, and changes in global central bank reserves [3] - The role of gold in an investment portfolio should be clearly defined, serving as a risk-hedging tool or a long-term value storage medium rather than a short-term speculative asset [8] Group 1 - Gold's safe-haven properties and value storage capabilities have been validated through historical volatility [1] - Real interest rates form the foundational pricing logic for gold, with negative interest rates typically reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold [3] - The US dollar's exchange rate is a significant variable, often moving inversely to gold prices [3] Group 2 - Geopolitical tensions and systemic risk events can temporarily boost demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3] - Changes in global central bank reserve allocations and demand from major consuming countries can have medium to long-term impacts on gold prices [3] - The complexity of these interrelated factors makes gold price forecasting challenging [3] Group 3 - Various tools are available for participating in the gold market, including physical gold, gold ETFs, and derivatives like futures and options [5] - Physical gold involves direct ownership but comes with storage and transaction costs, while gold ETFs offer higher liquidity and transparency [5] - Derivative instruments can amplify risks and require professional trading skills [6] Group 4 - Gold mining stocks are correlated with gold prices but are also influenced by company-specific operational factors, leading to potentially higher volatility [6] - Investment strategies should consider individual risk tolerance when selecting tools for gold investment [6] - Maintaining a balanced exposure to gold can help manage risk while leveraging its potential benefits [8]

Core Viewpoint - In June, the interbank foreign exchange market in China showed stable trading performance amid increasing geopolitical risks, easing uncertainties in U.S. trade policies, and new progress in China-U.S. economic and trade consultations [1] Trading Volume - The average daily trading volume in the interbank foreign exchange market reached $208.217 billion in June, marking a year-on-year increase of 15.71% and remaining above $200 billion for three consecutive months [3] - The average daily trading volume for the RMB foreign exchange market was $152.444 billion, reflecting an 8.89% year-on-year increase but a 3.58% month-on-month decline [3] - The foreign currency market and foreign currency interest rate market saw trading activity increase by over 30% year-on-year [3] Currency Exchange Rates - The U.S. dollar index initially rose and then fell, ending June at 96.77, a depreciation of 2.68% for the month [2] - The RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar fluctuated and rose, with the central parity rate on June 20 at 7.1695 [2] - The CFETS index for the RMB against a basket of currencies fell to 95.35 points by the end of June, a cumulative depreciation of 0.64% for the month [2] Interest Rate Differentials - The interest rate differential between China and the U.S. continued to narrow, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropping to 4.23% by the end of June [4] - The 10-year China-U.S. Treasury yield spread narrowed to -264 basis points, a decrease of 10 basis points from the previous month [4] Swap Points - The 1-year swap points rose to -1866 basis points by the end of June, an increase of 194 basis points, marking the highest level in nearly eight months [4] - The difference between the 1-year swap points and the theoretical value based on interest rate parity turned positive, ending at 117 basis points, the highest this year [5] - The overnight interest rate differential between domestic and foreign dollars remained negative throughout June, with the month-end rate at -18 basis points [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-7-30 美债收益率显著回落提振市场，静待议 息会议指引 议息会议前⼣市场交投相对清淡，美元指数短线强势反弹，但贵⾦属对此 反应甚微，隔夜美国公布的职位空缺数低于预期，美债收益率显著⾛低， 对市场形成提振。后续来看，经贸不确定性短期下降，关税逐渐成为慢变 量，关注美国基本⾯及降息预期变化，本周美国⾮农数据及7⽉降息会议 上美联储的表达较为重要。 重点资讯： 1）美国6月JOLTs职位空缺743.7万人，预期750万人，前值由776.9万 人修正为771.2万人。 2）美国总统特朗普发布信函称将自8月1日起对巴西产品征收50%的关 税。对于大量进口巴西咖啡豆的美国咖啡行业来说，这一关税政策给 他们造成严重冲击。 3）IMF将全球经济情况描述为"在持续的不确定性中，保持脆弱的韧 性"。IMF预计2025年全球经济增长率为3.0%，2026年为3. 1%。此外，IMF预计全球整体通胀率将在2025年降至4.2%，在2026年 降至3.6%。IMF将中国2025年的增长率较4月WEO预期上调了0.8个百分 点，达到4.8%。IMF ...