证券研究报告 2025年12月4日 行业：宏观 承前启后，"质"创未来 ——2026年度宏观展望 分析师：张河生 SAC编号：S0870523100004 目录 SECTION 2 一、内需与地产疲弱，出口有韧性 二、融资需求与物价水平走弱，2026年仍需稳增长 三、从量化、具化指标看十五五规划的可执行性与效果 四、美联储10月如期降息 五、风险提示 摘要 ◆ 核心观点 ◆ 风险提示 ◆ 居民收入、就业预期未改善，经济内生需求弱；稳增长政策低于预期等；中日地缘局势升级； 3 ◆ 内需与地产疲弱，出口有韧性，融资需求与物价水平走弱，2026年仍需稳增长。固定资产投资增速三季度加速下滑 ，消费二、三季度走弱，外贸保持较强韧性，对经济维持正贡献。地产形势走弱，融资需求依旧不佳，单位活期化 意愿提升，通缩风险依然存在。 ◆ 从量化、具化指标看十五五规划的可执行性与效果。中国经济当前存在的一些问题，十五五规划对问题以及解决方 案有相应的描述。居民消费率明显提高，我们认为中国居民消费占比未来5年提升15-20%，那么每年提升3-4%可完 成目标；关于就业的考核，我们认为需重视服务业对就业的重要性。 ◆ 美国通胀未达目标， ...

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market saw a rise in the afternoon, with sectors such as semiconductors, hardware equipment, and pharmaceuticals leading the gains [1] - The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Healthcare Index increased by 2.3%, the Hang Seng Stock Connect New Economy Index rose by 1.7%, the Hang Seng Technology Index went up by 1.5%, and the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet Index gained 1.2% [1] - The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme Index experienced a slight decline of 0.1% [1] Fund Inflows - According to Wind data, the Hang Seng Technology ETF (513010) and the Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF (513040) saw net inflows of 620 million yuan and 190 million yuan, respectively, over the past week [1] Strategic Insights - CITIC Securities highlighted that the "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the construction of a modern industrial system and accelerating high-level technological self-reliance, which may lead to new policy support for strategic emerging industries such as new energy, new materials, aerospace, and quantum technology [1] - Looking ahead to 2026, the Hong Kong stock market is expected to benefit from the internal catalysts of the "14th Five-Year Plan," with recommendations for investors to focus on investment opportunities in AI-related sectors and consumer electronics [1]

中国经济发展的"十五五"规划前瞻研究 2025年，中国即将迈入"十五五" 规划新阶段。这五年，不仅是衔接2035年基 本实现现代化目标的关键过渡期，更是中国经济从"规模扩张"向"质量跃升"转 型的攻坚期。 未来五年，国家的发展浪潮将涌向何方？ 哪些行业会崛起，哪些技能会升值？ 我们每个人的工作、生活、投资又将迎来怎样的新机遇？ "十五五"规划，正是解开这些疑问的"时代蓝图"和"财富密码"。 它远不止是宏大的国家目标，更是与每个人都息息相关。 《中国经济发展的"十五五"规划前瞻研究》由中国人民大学应用经济学院郑超愚 学 者 团 队 撰 写 ， 紧 扣 " 十 五 五 " 规 划 编 制 实 施 的 政 策 热 度 ， 聚 焦 经 济 高 质 量 发 展 、 新 质 生 产 力 培 育 、 区 域 协 调 等 核 心 议 题 ， 进 行 趋 势 预 测 与 政 策 路 径 探 索 。 是各界把握"十五五"政策方向的权威参考。 读懂 "十五五"： 不是增速竞赛，而是系统升级 提到五年规划，很多人会先问 "经济增速目标是多少？" 但在 "十五五" 的语境里，增速只是结果，真正的核心是 如何实现有质量的增长。 回顾 " ...

点 击 蓝 字 关 注 我 们 本文全文共 1479 字，阅读全文约需 5 分钟 《"十五五"规划建议》发布 经济发展目标：到2035年人均GDP达到中等发达国家水平 "十五五"规划提出坚持以经济建设为中心，强调"经济增速保持在合理区间"，并锚定2035年远景目标。为 实现2035年人均GDP达到中等发达国家水平，意味着当前和未来一段时期我国经济增长需要保持适当速度。 10月24日，党的二十届四中全会审议通过了《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划 的建议》，28日《建议》正式发布，明确把"建设现代化产业体系，巩固壮大实体经济根基"摆在战略任务的第 一条。 | "十五五"规划(2026-2030年) | 主题主线:坚持以经济建设为中心,以推动高质量发展为主题 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 历史方位 | 经济社会发展主要目标 | 战略任务 | | | "十五五"时期是基本实现社会主义 | 1高质量发展取得显著成效 | 建设现代化产业体系,巩固壮大 | 加快高水平科技自立自强,引领 | | 现代化夯实基础、全面发力的关键时 | 2科技自立自强水平大幅提高 | 实 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of identifying investment opportunities during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on both high-tech and traditional industries [1] - Investment in technology is highlighted as a key area due to the goal of improving overall productivity through technological advancements [1] - The need to enhance consumer spending is identified as a significant driver for economic growth, indicating substantial potential in the consumption sector [1] Group 2 - A low-volatility investment strategy is recommended for ordinary investors, suggesting the purchase of stocks with lower valuations and volatility to mitigate risks [2] - High valuation and high volatility stocks are deemed likely overvalued, leading to poor future returns, especially for retail investors chasing market trends [2] Group 3 - There is a call to increase the allocation of stock assets in household wealth management, as current investments are overly concentrated in real estate [3] - Emphasis is placed on investing in low-volatility, low-valuation, and high-dividend stocks, which are expected to have significant revaluation opportunities [3] - Diversification of assets is crucial, with convertible bonds suggested as a viable option due to their dual characteristics of debt and equity [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for local governments to develop new financial models that support new factors of production, focusing on value formation, capital support, and ecological collaboration to foster innovative productivity and drive economic growth during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Model for New Factors - Local governments should create financial models that serve new factors of production, focusing on financialization, monetization, and securitization to enhance financial services for these new factors [3]. - The financialization of factors is crucial for discovering their prices and enhancing their value, which is essential for financing new factor enterprises [3]. - Local governments are encouraged to explore financialization paths that align with local characteristics, including promoting data factor marketization and establishing data trading platforms [3]. Group 2: Capital Introduction for New Factor Enterprises - There is a need to attract "patient capital" for the high-quality development of new factor enterprises, which often face challenges in obtaining credit due to long R&D cycles and unclear business models [4]. - Local governments should build a capital supply system that includes specialized fund aggregation platforms to improve the efficiency of capital and project matching [4]. - A comprehensive venture capital service system should be established to support project selection, due diligence, and talent introduction, creating an ecosystem for capital and innovation [4]. Group 3: Dual Empowerment of Financial Services and Industry Development - Financial services should be integrated with industry development to create a dual empowerment effect, where digital technology enhances financial capabilities and financial capital accelerates the development of digital industries [5]. - Local governments are urged to promote the deep integration of financial elements with digital industry systems, encouraging collaboration among leading enterprises, platform companies, and financial institutions [5]. - Financial institutions should develop financial products tailored to the characteristics of the digital industry, such as supply chain finance and algorithm-driven credit assessments [5]. Group 4: Case Study of Hangzhou - Hangzhou has innovatively explored a comprehensive financial service model that integrates industry, data, and finance to support the growth of new industries and technologies [6]. - The city has established a data trading center and is implementing regulations to facilitate data assetization and securitization, becoming a pioneer in data trading legislation [6][7]. - Hangzhou's financial innovation has led to the creation of customized financial tools that replace traditional collateral with new factors like talent and intellectual property, effectively supporting the digital economy [8].

Core Viewpoint - The economic growth target for 2026 is likely to be set around 5%, but due to insufficient demand and investment constraints, the projected GDP growth rate is estimated at 4.8% under a neutral assumption [3][4]. Group 1: Positive Factors Supporting Economic Recovery - The first positive factor is the tactical easing of the US-China trade tensions, which is expected to provide resilience for exports in 2026, particularly as the US approaches its midterm elections [4]. - The second factor is the early implementation of major projects in the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan, with infrastructure investment expected to be a primary driver [4]. - The third factor involves the delayed effects of policy deployments from the end of this year, which are anticipated to manifest in early 2026, particularly in fiscal policy [5]. - The fourth factor is the ongoing effects of anti-involution governance, which may lead to a moderate recovery in PPI and CPI [6]. - The fifth factor is the demand potential from the new urbanization initiative, which is expected to release significant consumption and investment opportunities [6]. Group 2: Fiscal and Monetary Policy Directions - Fiscal policy is expected to play a supportive role, with a proposed increase in the deficit ratio to 4.5%-5% for 2026, and a broad deficit scale exceeding 16 trillion [7]. - In terms of monetary policy, a supportive stance is anticipated, with expectations for one interest rate cut and 1-2 reserve requirement ratio reductions in 2026 [8].

Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes addressing structural employment contradictions, particularly the mismatch between labor supply and demand, characterized by the phenomenon of "some people have no work, while some jobs have no applicants" [2][4]. Group 1: Employment Structure and Challenges - The main contradiction in the employment sector is the mismatch of human resources supply and demand, which is a pressing issue in the current and future periods [2]. - The need for a modernized human resource framework is highlighted, focusing on enhancing employment and recruitment concepts through public education and awareness campaigns [3][4]. Group 2: Education and Training - There is a call for proactive alignment of educational programs with technological advancements and national strategic needs, including dynamic adjustments to higher education disciplines and resource allocation [4]. - The development of modern vocational education is crucial, with an emphasis on improving vocational school capabilities and integrating vocational and academic education [4]. Group 3: Employment Support and Public Services - The plan aims to enhance employment support systems, particularly for key groups such as college graduates, migrant workers, and veterans, ensuring stability in the employment landscape [6]. - A comprehensive employment public service system is to be established, focusing on accessibility, equality, and professionalism in employment services [6]. - The establishment of a unified and standardized human resources market system is essential to create a fair and orderly employment environment, addressing issues like job fraud and improving the matching quality between job seekers and employers [6].

Core Insights - The implementation plan by six departments aims to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods, focusing on new fields and the integration of artificial intelligence in consumption scenarios [1][2][5] Group 1: Policy and Economic Context - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes domestic demand as a key driver for economic growth, with a focus on integrating AI into consumer sectors [1][5] - The plan encourages innovation in products and services through AI, aiming to create a digital ecosystem across the entire industry chain [1][3] Group 2: AI and Consumer Innovation - The application of AI in consumer goods is expected to lead to the development of smart home robots, intelligent appliances, and AI-enabled devices, enhancing user experience and driving consumption [2][3] - AI's role in product innovation includes features like intelligent interaction and autonomous learning, which can improve consumer engagement and satisfaction [3][8] Group 3: Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - The integration of AI with virtual and augmented reality is creating immersive shopping experiences, such as virtual fitting rooms and travel, which stimulate new consumer demands [3][7] - The shift towards service-oriented and quality-focused consumption is being accelerated by technological advancements, reshaping consumer behavior and market dynamics [4][6] Group 4: Financial and Institutional Support - Financial institutions are encouraged to support AI-driven consumer projects through loans and funding, facilitating the growth of AI applications in the consumer sector [3][5] - Policies such as tax incentives and subsidies are suggested to promote AI research and development, further driving innovation in consumer products [3][5] Group 5: Future Directions and Recommendations - The focus should be on creating a collaborative environment between supply and demand, with an emphasis on new economic sectors like drone logistics and personalized services [5][6] - Establishing a supportive public policy framework is crucial for the successful integration of AI in consumer scenarios, fostering a high-quality smart consumption ecosystem [7][8]

2025年11月12日 请务必阅读末页的免责条款和声明 目录 CONTENTS 四、风险因素 十五五转型下的改革政策展望 1个目标，3个问题 于翔 中信证券研究部 政策研究首席分析师 2 一、统一大市场：保持制造业合理比重VS企业盈利能力下降 二、国资转型产投：经济新旧动能转换VS财政资金整体紧张 三、资本市场改革：融资端支持新质生产力VS投资端保障投资者权益 保持制造业合理比重VS企业盈利能力下降 十五五规划建议提出"保持制造业合理比重" ： -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 % 中国 美国 日本 德国 资料来源：Wind，中信证券研究部 中国和其他主要国家制造业增加值占本国GDP的比重 10 15 20 25 30 35 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 % 美国 中国 日本 德国 印度 韩国 资料来源：世界银行，中信证券研究部 名义GDP增速对比 -10 - ...