7月31日，省委、省政府与国家市场监管总局在北京举行工作会谈。市场监管总局党组书记、局长罗文，省委书记刘宁、省长王凯出席并讲话。 罗文对河南经济社会发展取得的成绩表示祝贺，对恳请支持事项作出积极回应。他说，河南省委、省政府高度重视市场监管工作，在质量和标准化建设、优 化市场环境等方面形成了一些好经验好做法。总局将深入贯彻习近平总书记重要指示精神，结合河南改革发展实际，进一步深化对接合作、加大政策支持力 度，推动河南融入服务全国统一大市场建设不断取得新成效，促进部省合作取得更多务实成果，为更好推进市场监管现代化、服务高质量发展提供有益借 鉴。 市场监管总局副局长、国家认监委主任束为，副省长吕国范参加。（记者 刘婵 归欣 张笑闻） 责任编辑： 杨露露 刘宁代表省委和省政府感谢总局在质量强企强链强县建设、产业检验检测技术研发、中小企业认证提升等方面给予河南的大力支持。他说，当前，全省上下 深入学习贯彻习近平总书记在河南考察时重要讲话精神，聚焦"1+2+4+N"目标任务体系，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，经济社会保持平稳健康发 展。特别是我们立足中部地区"三基地一枢纽"战略定位，把融入服务全国统一大市场建设作为 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View In July 2025, the stock index continued to oscillate upward, breaking through the high of the year, and all industry indices achieved positive returns. Although the market fluctuated at the end of the month, the continuous policy efforts changed market expectations significantly, and the inflow of funds continued. The bullish atmosphere in the stock market became more evident, and the upward trend of the stock index remained unchanged despite the oscillations [3][4][38]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Spot Market Performance Review - Bottoming Out and Stabilizing - In July 2025, the market continued to oscillate upward. By July 30, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 index rose 5.47%, the Shanghai Composite 50 index rose 3.96%, the CSI 500 index rose 6.75%, and the CSI 1000 index rose 5.7% [5]. - All industries achieved positive returns, with non - metallic materials and metal materials rising more than 10% monthly, healthcare having a high increase, and the bank index, the previous market stabilizer, having the smallest increase [7]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures Performance Review - Continued Convergence of Premium - After June, the premium of stock index futures continued to converge. After the peak of concentrated dividends of listed companies passed and the spot market performed well, the basis returned to normal. After the expiration and delivery of the July contracts and the listing of the 2603 contracts, the basis of the next - quarter contracts of IC and IM expanded periodically, but the basis of IF did not expand significantly, and IH even showed a premium [12]. - In July, the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increased steadily. The average daily trading volume of IM, IF, IH, and IC increased by 1.9%, 7.3%, 8.6%, and 6.7% respectively compared with the previous month, and the average daily open interest increased by 1.9%, 3.5%, 8.2%, and 12.1% respectively. The 2509 contract's position as the absolute main contract was unshakable, and it was expected to shift positions to the 2512 contract on a large scale starting in August [16]. - The convergence of the premium significantly reduced the roll - over cost of short positions in stock index futures. The cost of rolling over the current - month contracts of IM, IC, and IF to the next - month contracts was the lowest, with monthly average annualized costs of 9.57%, 7.64%, and 2.82% respectively, down 3.17, 1.68, and 1.53 percentage points from the previous month. The cost of rolling over IH short positions to the next - quarter contracts was the lowest, with a monthly average annualized cost of 0.12% [23]. - From the perspective of the positions of major seats, the net short positions of the major seats of each variety were generally stable. The net short positions of the major seats of IM showed a slight upward trend, with the average monthly net short positions of the top ten seats increasing by 2.4 percentage points compared with the previous month; the average monthly net short positions of the top five seats of IH also increased by 2.4 percentage points compared with the previous month [26]. 3.3 Oscillations Do Not Change the Upward Trend - **Economic Policy Continues to Strengthen**: In July, continuous policy signals changed market expectations significantly. The prices of pro - cyclical commodities reversed sharply, driving up the stock prices of sectors such as rare earths and non - ferrous metals, and also strengthening sectors such as steel and coal, creating a bullish atmosphere in the stock market. Although the market oscillated significantly on July 30, the policy of "regulating disorderly competition among enterprises in accordance with laws and regulations and promoting capacity governance in key industries" is expected to be continuously implemented in the second half of the year, which will have a positive impact on the industry ecosystem and the performance of listed companies [30][31]. - **Event - Driven Re - evaluation**: On July 19, the construction ceremony of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project was held. Affected by this, the Yarlung Zangbo hydropower concept sector and related stocks rose sharply, and sectors such as cement, building materials, engineering machinery, steel, and construction also rose significantly. The project has a long construction period and large investment, which is expected to benefit relevant sectors, and the market may benefit from the re - evaluation of multiple weak sectors [32][33]. - **Continuous Inflow of Funds into the Market**: According to the second - quarter report of public funds, Central Huijin increased its holdings of key broad - based ETFs on a large scale in the second quarter of 2025, with a holding scale exceeding 200 billion yuan, which stabilized market expectations. At the same time, the margin trading balance reached a new high this year, indicating high investor confidence and a positive impact on the market [34][35].

政策连续，兼顾长短 [Table_Authors] 黄汝南(分析师) ——2025 年 7 月政治局会议点评 本报告导读： 政策依旧留有后手，密切关注外部风险可能的反复和国内基本面的变化，以及"十五 五"规划中确定性的产业线索。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 中共中央政治局 7 月 30 日召开会议，决定 2025 年 10 月召开中共 四中全会，研究制定"十五五"规划的建议，并分析研究当前经济形 势和部署下半年经济工作。总的来看有三个特征：一是对内外部形 势的判断相较 4 月政治局会议更加积极；二是强调政策连续性，下 半年有望迎来"适时加力"的窗口期；三是适逢"十五五"规划起草在 即，政策兼顾短期稳增长和长期促改革。与 2020 年 7 月政治局会 议对"十四五"的相关表述相比，亮点是增加了"推动人的全面发展、 全体人民共同富裕迈出坚实步伐"的表述，这与此前强调的"投资于 人"一脉相承。 从对下半年工作的具体部署来看，有以下几个亮点： huangrunan@gtht.com 登记编号 S0880523080001 证 券 研 究 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.07.30 20 ...

Economic Performance - The GDP growth rate for the first half of the year was recorded at 5.3%, with Q1 at 5.4% and Q2 at 5.2%[8] - Achieving the annual target growth rate of 5% is deemed feasible, with a projected 4.7% growth rate needed in the second half[8] Policy Direction - The meeting emphasized "enhancing flexibility and foresight" in policy implementation, indicating a proactive approach to potential external shocks[3] - Fiscal policy will focus on accelerating government bond issuance and improving fund utilization efficiency, while monetary policy aims to maintain ample liquidity and reduce overall financing costs[10] Market Stability - The government aims to prevent inflation from rising rapidly, with expectations for the price level to remain moderate and controllable throughout the year[4] - The focus on high-quality investment and structural tools in monetary policy suggests a cautious approach to broad interest rate cuts[12] Risk Management - Key risks include uncertainties surrounding US-China tariffs and the potential for slower export growth in Q3[6] - The meeting highlighted the need for systematic debt risk management, particularly regarding local government debt[15] Consumer and Investment Focus - Policies will prioritize stimulating domestic demand, with an emphasis on service consumption and improving living standards to support sustained consumption[13] - The government aims to invigorate private investment and ensure effective investment in key projects to support economic growth[14]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for China to enhance its macroeconomic policies to address current economic challenges and ensure a stable recovery in the second half of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Policies - The meeting highlighted the importance of maintaining policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight to stabilize employment, businesses, markets, and expectations [1]. - China will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, ensuring that these policies are effectively executed to maximize their impact [1][2]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy - The article calls for the effective use of proactive fiscal policies, including the acceleration of issuing and utilizing ultra-long special government bonds and local government special bonds to improve fund utilization efficiency [2]. - It stresses the need for increased fiscal counter-cyclical adjustments to boost demand and improve market expectations through timely issuance of bonds and efficient approval processes [2]. Group 3: Monetary Policy - Monetary policy should be adjusted appropriately to promote a decline in the overall financing costs for society while maintaining ample liquidity [2]. - The meeting emphasized the use of structural monetary policy tools to support technological innovation, boost consumption, assist small and micro enterprises, and stabilize foreign trade [2]. Group 4: Consumer Demand and Supply Quality - The focus should be on promoting consumption to effectively unleash domestic demand potential, including the continuation of the "old-for-new" consumption subsidy program with a budget of 138 billion yuan [3]. - There is a need to improve supply quality through deepening reforms, fostering new competitive industries, and integrating technological and industrial innovations [3]. Group 5: Capital Market - The capital market's role as an economic barometer is increasing, and enhancing its attractiveness and inclusiveness is crucial for stabilizing economic recovery [4]. - The article suggests that a stable capital market and asset prices are essential foundations for consolidating the economic recovery trend [4].

研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 报告类型 股指日评 日期 2025 年 7 月 31 日 每日报告 一、行情回顾与后市展望 1.1 行情回顾： 7 月 30 日，万得全 A 开盘小幅上涨，午后跳水后有所回升，收跌 0.40%，超 3500 支个股下跌；指数现货方面，沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000 收盘分别下跌 0.02%、0.65%、0.82%，上证 50 收盘上涨 0.38%，大盘蓝筹股表现更优。指数期 货表现弱于现货，IF、IC、IM 主力合约分别收跌 0.12%、0.76%、0.87%，IH 主力 合约收涨 0.21%（按前一交易日收 ...

Group 1 - The meeting emphasized the importance of maintaining policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight to achieve economic goals for the year [2][3] - The macroeconomic policy will focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, with a strong emphasis on the livelihood orientation of policies [2][3] - There is a need to boost consumer confidence and continue implementing special actions to stimulate consumption, as the recovery of the consumption market still requires solid foundations [2][3] Group 2 - The meeting highlighted the importance of expanding service consumption as a new growth point while also increasing commodity consumption [3][4] - Service consumption is seen as a key driver for improving livelihoods and promoting consumption industry upgrades, which will help achieve a rapid growth in overall consumption [3][4] - The construction of a unified national market is essential for building a new development pattern and promoting high-quality development [4][5] Group 3 - The meeting called for specific arrangements to deepen the construction of a unified national market, optimizing market competition order and regulating chaotic competition among enterprises [4][5] - There is a focus on controlling new production capacity and optimizing existing capacity in industries facing severe competition, as well as regulating local government investment behaviors [5] - Strengthening the role of price regulation and quality standards is crucial for allowing high-quality products to thrive in the market [5]

Core Viewpoint - China's foreign trade showed resilience in the first half of the year, with a total import and export value of 21.79 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.9% despite global economic challenges and rising trade protectionism [1] Group 1: Trade Performance - The export of high-end equipment increased by over 20%, and the export of "new three samples" products accelerated [1] - Trade with over 190 countries and regions experienced growth, indicating a broadening of trade partnerships [1] Group 2: Strategic Focus - Emphasis on enhancing hard power through quality supply to boost foreign trade development [1] - Transitioning from price and cost advantages to technological comparative advantages, highlighting the increasing value of "Made in China" [1] - Focus on high-end, intelligent, and green transformation trends in industries to improve the added value and technological content of export products [1] Group 3: Market Expansion - The need to explore new markets while consolidating traditional ones to mitigate risks from market fluctuations [2] - Importance of capturing diverse consumer demands and providing customized products to adapt to changing international market conditions [2] Group 4: Collaborative Networks - Deep integration into global supply chains and sharing development opportunities with other countries through various sectors, such as textiles and agriculture [2] - The establishment of a unified national market in China is expected to provide new opportunities for global trade [2] Group 5: Competitive Advantage - China's comprehensive competitive advantage in foreign trade remains solid, with a focus on maintaining strategic determination and stimulating potential vitality [2] - The steady progress of China's foreign trade is anticipated to inject stronger momentum into the country's economic development and contribute to global trade growth [2]

Group 1 - The meeting emphasized that the "14th Five-Year Plan" is crucial for achieving socialist modernization and that the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" will focus on consolidating foundations and comprehensive development [1][2] - The economic indicators for the first half of the year showed a GDP growth of 5.3%, leading to an upward revision of China's economic growth forecast by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) [2] - The meeting highlighted the need for flexible and anticipatory macroeconomic policies to address potential challenges while seizing development opportunities [2][3] Group 2 - The focus on addressing "involution" in industries, particularly in the automotive sector, indicates a shift towards regulated competition and the promotion of consumer confidence [3][4] - The meeting called for effective measures to unleash domestic demand, particularly through initiatives to boost consumption and develop new growth points in service consumption [5] - Specific actions were proposed to support foreign trade enterprises, enhance the attractiveness of domestic capital markets, and stabilize the real estate market through urban renewal efforts [6]

Economic Outlook - The Politburo meeting on July 30 emphasized the strong vitality and resilience of the economy in the first half of the year, while urging caution for the second half[2] - The focus for the "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to be on actively expanding domestic demand and responding to external changes, particularly in manufacturing investment and service consumption[2][3] Policy Direction - The macro policy will continue to exert force and adapt as necessary, with a key emphasis on effectively releasing policy effects and potential for domestic demand[3][4] - Fiscal policy will prioritize the implementation of existing policies, focusing on quality rather than quantity, to enhance the fiscal multiplier effect[4] Fiscal and Monetary Measures - The issuance of special bonds and ultra-long-term treasury bonds is expected to maintain a certain intensity in Q3, with a focus on consumption and investment[4] - There is a higher probability of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in Q4 compared to Q3, given the economic pressures[5] Domestic Demand and Investment - The meeting highlighted the importance of effectively releasing domestic demand potential, with a focus on service consumption growth and investment in urban renewal projects[5][6] - Urban development is shifting from expansion to quality improvement, emphasizing the renovation of existing structures and infrastructure upgrades[6] Market and Trade Stability - The meeting underscored the need to stabilize foreign trade and foreign investment, with policies aimed at maintaining a solid foundation in these areas[6] - There is a continued emphasis on stabilizing the stock market to attract long-term capital and maintain market momentum[6]