研究报告 橡胶月报 基本面多空交织，盘面或偏强运行 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 期货从业资格证号：F0305828 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011566 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：2367823725@qq.com 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 研究员：张正卯 2 月天然橡胶主力合约 RU2605 价格在 15835-17370 元/吨之 间运行，走势震荡上行，当月总体涨幅较大。 截至 2026 年 2 月 27 日下午收盘，天然橡胶主力合约报收 17155 元/吨，当月上涨 795 点，涨幅 4.86%。 【后市展望】 报告日期：2026 年 3 月 2 日星期一 2 月国内天然橡胶期货主力合约走势先抑后扬，涨幅较大。 展望后市，宏观方面，当地时间 2 月 28 日，美国和以色列 对伊朗发动空袭，对全球商品产生巨大影响，其中化工板块受 到原油供给紧张的提振，短期情绪或维持强势。从基本面来看， 供给方面，全球天然橡胶新胶产出压力缓解，供应端压力有所 减轻。原料收购价格延续涨势，成本端对胶价支撑明显。需求 方面，节后下游企业复产复工，开工率 ...

宏 2026 年 3 月 2 日 证 券 研 究 报 告 中国宏观周报（2026 年 2 月第 4 周） 部分工业品生产恢复 证券分析师 平安观点： 宏 观 周 报 观 报 告 张璐 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522100001 ZHANGLU150@pingan.com.cn 常艺馨 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522080003 CHANGYIXIN050@pingan.com.cn 从高频数据观察，春节假期结束后，本周部分工业品生产恢复，工业品价 格指数也有提升。年初以来新房销售温和恢复，二手房挂牌价逐步止跌； 同时，外贸港口吞吐量及韩国出口数据表现亮眼，体现外需韧性增强。 1. 工业：部分工业品春节后生产恢复。1）原材料方面，本周日均铁水产量、 浮法玻璃开工率、部分化工品开工率，以及主要钢材品种表观需求环比提 升；水泥熟料产能利用率、石油沥青开工率环比回落。2）中下游方面，本 周纺织聚酯开工率环比提升，织造业开工率季节性走弱；汽车半钢胎开工 率、全钢胎开工率环比反弹。 2. 地产：新房销售温和修复。1）销售方面，年初以来（截至 2 月 27 日）， 30 大中城市新房销售面积同比-24.6%，较去年 ...

固收市场周报 地产市场季节性回暖，复工节奏快于去 年农历同期——宏观高频数据追踪 2026 年 03 月 02 日 【固收观点】 2026 年春节后复工复产节奏快于去年农历同期，黑色上游及化工行业 开工表现相对较好。根据百年建筑网调研，截至 2 月 25 日(正月初九)， 全国 10692 个工地开复工率农历同比增加 1.5 个百分点。其中，工地 资金到位情况明显强于去年，工人复工情况也好于去年，资金到位率、 劳务上工率的农历同比分别增加 9.4、3.7 个百分点。从工业生产开工 率角度来看，焦化企业开工率、高炉、甲醇、涤纶长丝等开工率数据 均较春节前有不同程度回升，不过黑色下游及建材生产开工表现一般， 其中螺纹钢开工率、石油沥青开工率、水泥熟料产能利用率、汽车轮 胎开工率仍明显回落，或与相关企业复工节奏偏慢有关，后续需关注 近期地产市场边际好转对上游产业链的带动情况以及原油价格波动上 涨对化工产业的边际影响。 挖掘价值 投资成长 东方财富证券研究所 证券分析师：刘哲铭 证书编号：S1160525120003 联系人：孙欣贺 相关研究 《曲线平坦化，哑铃策略优势初现？》 2026.03.01 《上海楼市新政出 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - High - frequency economic data focuses on four aspects: production seasonally cools down; the Spring Festival movie box - office drops nearly 40% year - on - year while tourist trips and spending hit new highs due to an extra holiday day; overall prices decline with oil, coking coal, and rebar prices falling, non - ferrous prices rising slightly, and agricultural products entering a seasonal downward trend; affected by the Spring Festival, subway ridership and peak congestion index in first - tier cities are low, while flight volume is high. Short - term attention should be paid to the progress of front - loaded fiscal efforts and the recovery of the real estate market [2][31]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Production: Seasonal Obvious Cooling - Steel: In the week of February 20, the coke oven capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.11 pct, the blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.6 pct, and the rebar output increased by 1.22 tons. The inventory of rebar increased by 57.48 tons [9]. - Petroleum Asphalt: In the week of February 11, the operating rate of domestic petroleum asphalt plants decreased by 2.8 pct at a low level [9]. - Chemicals: On February 24, the PX operating rate remained flat compared with the previous week, while the PTA operating rate decreased by 3.86 pct [9]. - Automobile Tires: In the week of February 19, the full - steel tire operating rate decreased by 28.2 pct, and the semi - steel tire operating rate decreased by 45.2 pct [10]. Demand: Spring Festival Tourism and Consumption Hit New Highs, Movie Box - Office Drops Significantly Year - on - Year - Real Estate: In the week of February 22, the commercial housing transaction area decreased, the inventory - to - sales ratio increased significantly, the land supply area dropped sharply, and the residential land transaction premium rate decreased [13]. - Movie Box - Office: In 2026, the Spring Festival movie box - office was 5.752 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 39.5%; the number of moviegoers was 120 million, a year - on - year decrease of 35.8% [13]. - Tourism Consumption: Due to an extra day of the Spring Festival holiday, the number of tourist trips and spending both hit new highs. During the 9 - day Spring Festival holiday, there were 596 million domestic tourist trips and the total domestic tourism spending was 803.483 billion yuan [14]. - Automobile Sales: In the week of February 8, the average daily retail sales of passenger cars decreased by 9,218 units, and the average daily wholesale sales decreased by 15,720 units [18]. - Shipping Freight Rates: In the week of February 13, the SCFI index decreased by 1.19%, and the CCFI index decreased by 3.03%. On February 24, the BDI index increased by 1.62% compared with the previous week [20]. Prices: Non - ferrous Prices Rise, Agricultural Products Enter a Seasonal Downward Trend - Energy: On February 24, the Brent crude oil price decreased by 1.38% to $70.77 per barrel [22]. - Coking Coal: On February 24, the coking coal futures price decreased by 1.74% to 1,100.5 yuan per ton [22]. - Metals: On February 24, the LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices increased by 1.78%, 0.26%, and 0.15% respectively, while the domestic rebar futures price decreased by 0.98% [23]. - Agricultural Products: On February 24, the overall agricultural product price declined, with the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index decreasing by 0.81%. The prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changed by - 0.17%, - 2.46%, - 2.33%, and + 1.50% respectively compared with before the festival [25]. Logistics: Flight Volume is High, Spring Festival Personnel Flow Hits a New High - Subway Ridership: On February 24, the seven - day moving average of subway ridership in Beijing decreased by 125.34 million person - times, a week - on - week decrease of 18.32%; in Shanghai, it decreased by 171.29 million person - times, a week - on - week decrease of 23.57% [26]. - Personnel Flow: During the 2026 Spring Festival holiday, the cross - regional personnel flow in the whole society reached 2.81 billion person - times, a new high. The daily average was 310 million person - times, an 8.2% increase compared with the same period last year [29]. - Flight Volume: On February 24, the seven - day moving average of domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) flight volume increased by 3.37%, that of domestic (Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) increased by 1.08%, and that of international flights increased by 0.35% [29]. - Urban Traffic: On February 24, the seven - day moving average of the peak congestion index in first - tier cities decreased by 5.79% compared with the previous week [29].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the common issues faced by car owners regarding vehicle quality, particularly slow air leaks in new tires, and outlines effective channels for consumer rights protection in the automotive sector [1][10]. Group 1: Responsibility Clarification - When encountering quality issues with a new car, the first step is to identify the responsible party, typically the seller or manufacturer if the car is still under warranty [11]. - Car owners should communicate with the 4S dealership or dealer to request inspections and written reports before considering external complaint channels [11] Group 2: Common Complaint Channels - The main complaint channels in China are categorized into three types: administrative regulatory bodies, industry organizations, and media supervision platforms [12]. Administrative Regulatory Bodies - The most authoritative complaint channel is the 12315 platform under the State Administration for Market Regulation, which has strong enforcement capabilities [13]. - Complaints regarding safety defects, fraudulent sales, or forced insurance bundling can lead to formal investigations, but the process may take 15-45 working days [15]. Industry Organizations and Associations - The China Consumers Association and its local branches handle automotive complaints and provide professional judgment on technical disputes [16]. - However, industry mediation primarily relies on negotiation and lacks enforcement power, which may lead to stalemates if companies do not cooperate [17]. Third-Party Complaint Platforms - Internet complaint platforms like Black Cat Complaints have gained popularity due to their convenience and transparency, allowing consumers to submit complaints easily [18]. - These platforms can aggregate similar complaints, increasing visibility and pressure on companies to respond, and they also report defect clues to regulatory authorities [18]. Group 3: Case Study and Recommendations - For issues like frequent tire leaks, consumers are advised to first use platforms like Black Cat Complaints for quick resolution, while also considering administrative complaints if necessary [19]. - A combination of complaint channels can enhance the chances of resolution, especially in cases where multiple consumers face the same issue [19]. - Recommendations for consumers include retaining evidence, negotiating before escalating complaints, and choosing appropriate platforms based on the nature of the issue [20].

中国质量新闻网讯 据山东省临沂市市场监督管理局网站消息，近日，临沂市市场监督管理局公布2025年汽车轮胎产品质量市级监督抽查结果（第八批）。 本次共抽查汽车轮胎产品9批次，其中，生产环节6批次，销售环节3批次。 抽查未发现不合格项目。 | | | | 2025年第八批产品质量监督抽查结果汇总表 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 序 | 产品 | 产品分 | | | | 抽样 | | | | | 综 合 | 不合格 项目 | | 号 | 名称 | 类 | 受检单位名称 | 统一社会信用代码 | 标称生产单位 | 领域 | 生产日期/批号 | 商标 | 规格型号 | 检验单位 | 判 | （名 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 定 | 称） | | | | | | | | | | | | 青岛市产 | | | | 1 汽车 | | 机械及 | 沂水县启航轮胎经 | 92371323MA3F6BL532 正道轮胎有限公 | | 流 ...

2月2日，玲珑轮胎盘中下跌2.06%，截至13:39，报14.76元/股，成交2.01亿元，换手率0.92%，总市值 216.01亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出3719.27万元，特大单买入1539.22万元，占比7.65%，卖出2958.44万 元，占比14.70%；大单买入3214.04万元，占比15.97%，卖出5514.09万元，占比27.40%。 截至9月30日，玲珑轮胎股东户数8.75万，较上期减少7.74%；人均流通股16716股，较上期增加8.39%。 2025年1月-9月，玲珑轮胎实现营业收入181.61亿元，同比增长13.87%；归母净利润11.67亿元，同比减 少31.81%。 分红方面，玲珑轮胎A股上市后累计派现36.91亿元。近三年，累计派现14.02亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，玲珑轮胎十大流通股东中，南方中证500ETF（510500）位居第四 大流通股东，持股1066.85万股，相比上期减少22.30万股。香港中央结算有限公司位居第五大流通股 东，持股1058.05万股，相比上期减少322.81万股。工银创新动力股票（000893）位居第六大流通股东， ...

Core Insights - In 2025, Jining's total import and export value reached 127.44 billion RMB, marking a historical high with a year-on-year growth of 7.4%, maintaining 11 consecutive years of growth [1][3] - Exports accounted for 106.24 billion RMB, growing by 7%, while imports reached 21.2 billion RMB, increasing by 9.4% [1][3] Group 1: Trade Scale and Market Share - Jining's foreign trade further deepened and solidified in the closing year of the 14th Five-Year Plan, achieving a doubling of import and export value since the beginning of the plan in 2021 [3] - The city's import and export value accounted for 3.6% of Shandong's total, an increase of 1.4 percentage points since the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan, both scale and provincial share reached historical highs [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Business Activity - The number of enterprises with import and export performance in Jining reached 2,981, an increase of 15.3%, with private enterprises being the main contributors, surpassing 100 billion RMB in import and export value [3] - Foreign-invested enterprises and state-owned enterprises reported import and export values of 13.36 billion RMB and 8.8 billion RMB, growing by 5.4% and 38.2% respectively [3] Group 3: Emerging Markets and Product Diversification - Jining's imports and exports covered over 200 countries and regions globally, with the top five trading markets accounting for 685.2 billion RMB, or 53.8% of the total [4] - Notable growth in trade with ASEAN, EU, and Brazil was recorded at 15.2%, 12.5%, and 50.8% respectively, while trade with Africa, Latin America, Middle East, and Central Asia also saw increases [4] Group 4: Product Composition and Import Growth - Mechanical and electrical products accounted for over 50% of exports, with a growth of 14.8%, contributing to a 7 percentage point increase in overall export value [4] - Key products such as automotive tires and used cars saw significant export growth of 25.4% and 75.5% respectively, while imports of metal ores increased by 59.4%, driving a 7.8 percentage point rise in total imports [4]

Industrial Sector - In January, daily average pig iron production and float glass operating rates remained stable, while asphalt and some chemical products saw a decline in operating rates[4] - The apparent demand for major steel products decreased, while cement clinker capacity utilization increased[4] - The operating rate for automotive semi-steel tires increased, while full-steel tire operating rates declined[20] Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities decreased by 38.5% year-on-year as of January 23, with a similar decline of 38.6% for the month of January[21] - The second-hand housing listing price index fell by 0.93% week-on-week, a decrease of 0.46 percentage points from the previous value[25] Domestic Demand - Retail sales of passenger cars from January 1 to 18 dropped by 28% year-on-year, with a slight expected increase of 0.3% for the entire month due to the Spring Festival timing[29] - Major home appliance retail sales fell by 34.5% year-on-year as of January 16, a decline of 3.3 percentage points from the previous value[33] - The volume of postal express deliveries decreased by 5.4% year-on-year as of January 18, a drop of 3.2 percentage points from the previous value[32] External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 3.4% year-on-year as of January 18, an improvement of 1.7 percentage points from the previous value[35] - Container throughput at ports rose by 7.6% year-on-year, also showing an increase from previous values[35] Price Trends - The Nanhua Industrial Index rose by 1.1%, while the Nanhua Black Raw Materials Index fell by 0.9% and the Nanhua Nonferrous Metals Index increased by 3.0%[36] - The agricultural product wholesale price index rose by 1.7% week-on-week[40]

Economic Indicators - As of January 25, 2026, the ECI supply index is at 50.06%, up 0.10 percentage points from the previous week, while the demand index remains stable at 49.84%[8] - The ECI investment index is at 49.83%, unchanged from last week, and the consumption index is at 49.65%, down 0.01 percentage points[8] - The ECI export index has increased to 50.22%, up 0.02 percentage points from last week[8] Industrial Production - The operating rate for automotive full steel tires has improved by 20.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the cement shipment rate has increased by 13.4 percentage points compared to the same period last year[2] - The overall industrial production shows significant improvement due to the timing of the Spring Festival, with various industries experiencing better operating rates compared to last year[17] Real Estate Market - The sales growth of second-hand homes continues to recover, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 10.9% for the week of January 17-23, 2026, marking the first positive year-on-year change since October 2025[2] Consumer Market - The retail sales of passenger cars are expected to rebound from a year-on-year decline of -14.0% in December 2025 to a growth of 0.3% in January 2026[2] - The "trade-in" policy has shown positive effects, with significant improvements in appliance sales during the week of January 12-18, 2026[2] Export Performance - The cumulative cargo throughput at monitored ports in January 2026 is recorded at an average of 25,967.4 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 3.5%[2] - January exports are expected to maintain strong resilience, supported by a higher number of working days compared to the previous year[2] Inflation Trends - The average wholesale price of pork has increased to 18.48 yuan/kg, showing a marginal recovery, while the average price of 28 key monitored vegetables is at 5.65 yuan/kg, also reflecting a slight increase[44] - The CPI is expected to continue rising due to the seasonal demand for food products and the increase in international oil prices[2] Monetary Policy - The MLF (Medium-term Lending Facility) has been preemptively rolled over with an excess of 9,000 billion yuan, indicating a total liquidity injection of 1 trillion yuan in January 2026[16] - The ELI index stands at -0.71%, having increased by 0.07 percentage points from the previous week, indicating a slight improvement in liquidity conditions[13] Risk Factors - Uncertainties remain regarding U.S. tariff policies and the potential for policy measures to fall short of market expectations[59] - The sustainability of improvements in the real estate market is still under observation[59]