作为我国北方国际航运核心区和金融创新运营示范区，天津持续推动自贸试验区制度创新与口岸功能提升。东疆 发挥"自贸区+综保区+港口"多重功能政策叠加优势，已先后获批线型低密度聚乙烯、纸浆等期货品种的指定交割 仓库，推出多项贸易便利化举措，为获批成为我市首个20号胶期货保税交割资质区域奠定基础，此次业务顺利落 地，也是东疆产业环境完善和服务体系便利的有力体现。伴随京津冀协同发展深化及制造业升级，橡胶等大宗原 材料的稳定供应尤为重要，此次20号胶期货交割业务的开展，正契合了这一趋势，未来有望吸引更多产业链上下 游企业在天津东疆布局。 未来，东疆将继续深化期货交割品类拓展与服务模式创新，推动更多大宗商品保税交割项目落地。延伸20号胶上 下游产业链，促进汽车轮胎等中间品贸易发展，进一步增强我市港口在国际贸易网络中的资源配置能力。用好综 保区政策和口岸仓储物流载体功能，进一步丰富期货保税交割等"保税+"业态，构建联通国内外两个市场和资源的 平台，为港产城融合发展示范样板区建设提供助力。（津云新闻记者霍艳华 通讯员黄贝宁） 天津北方网讯：近日，由印度尼西亚起运发往天津口岸的第一批1200吨20号胶抵港并存入天津东疆综合保税区 ...

Core Insights - Cambodia's tire exports reached $870 million in the first eight months of the year, marking a significant 64% increase compared to $530 million in the same period last year [1] - The tire sector has emerged as a new growth engine for Cambodia's export landscape, demonstrating the effectiveness of the government's export diversification strategy [1] - The robust growth in tire exports is attributed to the government's proactive strategies to attract foreign investment, leading to the establishment of production facilities by several tire manufacturers, particularly from China [1] Industry Developments - Trade agreements, especially the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the Cambodia-China Free Trade Agreement, have played a crucial role in expanding market access for Cambodian products [1] - Tire exports accounted for 4.2% of Cambodia's total export value of $20.83 billion in the first eight months, indicating the increasing importance of this sector in the national export structure [1] - Several new tire manufacturing projects are in preparation, which are expected to create local job opportunities and enhance the market for local rubber, thereby supporting the development of the country's agriculture [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for RU and NR is neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [6] Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber, before the end of September, rainfall in the main producing areas may still cause disruptions, supporting the cost of rubber and limiting the decline of rubber prices. The concentrated restocking of downstream tire factories may be over, and with the slight increase in recent domestic arrivals, the domestic inventory reduction is expected to slow down. The demand for downstream tires has entered the seasonal peak season, the recent tire factory operating rate has rebounded, and the rigid consumption of raw materials continues, so the supply - demand contradiction is still not significant. After the downstream purchasing demand subsides, the rubber price is expected to weaken, but the overall decline space will be limited [6] - For BR, recently, the overhauled devices will be restarted one after another, and it is expected that the upstream operating rate will rise again, and the supply of BR will increase month - on - month. The demand side currently shows peak - season characteristics, and the tire factory operating rate has rebounded to the normal level. However, after the concentrated restocking of tire factories ends, the raw material demand has declined. The supply - demand situation shows signs of loosening month - on - month. Recently, there are concerns about cost - side drag on BR. Mainly, the weakening of crude oil prices may lead to an adjustment of butadiene prices. At the same time, the recent inventory of butadiene is at a moderately high level, and there may be pressure after the downstream restocking ends. It is expected that BR will show a weak pattern, but the large price difference with natural rubber still supports the lower price limit of BR [6] Market News and Data Futures - The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,620 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,465 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 11,520 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton [1] Spot - The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,780 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,870 US dollars/ton, up 35 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,760 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,600 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton [1] Market Information Import - In August 2025, China imported 664,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a month - on - month increase of 4.73% and a year - on - year increase of 7.79%. From January to August 2025, China's cumulative imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) were 5.373 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.06% [2] Export - In the first eight months of 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 650,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%; the export value was 114.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires reached 626,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%; the export value was 109.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. In terms of the number of pieces, the export volume reached 47.86 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. From January to August, the export volume of automobile tires was 555,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%; the export value was 94.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.1% [2][3] Production and Sales of Vehicles - In the first eight months of 2025, the export volume of rubber from Cote d'Ivoire totaled 1.05 million tons, a 14.4% increase compared with 920,000 tons in the same period in 2024. Looking at the August data alone, the export volume increased by 14.8% year - on - year and decreased by 8.9% month - on - month. In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 84,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month slight decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of about 35%. From January to August this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 708,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 13%. From January to August, China's automobile production and sales reached 21.051 million and 21.128 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12.6% respectively. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 9.625 million and 9.62 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 37.3% and 36.7% respectively, and the new - energy vehicle sales accounted for 45.5% of the total new - vehicle sales. In terms of exports, from January to August, automobile exports reached 4.292 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%. Among them, new - energy vehicle exports reached 1.532 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 87.3% [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber Spot and Spreads - On September 24, 2025, the RU basis was - 820 yuan/ton (- 45), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 740 yuan/ton (- 5), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,285 yuan/ton (+ 202.68), the NR basis was 826.00 yuan/ton (+ 182.00); the whole latex was 14,800 yuan/ton (+ 50), the mixed rubber was 14,880 yuan/ton (+ 100), the 3L spot was 15,250 yuan/ton (+ 50). The STR20 was quoted at 1,870 US dollars/ton (+ 35), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 450 yuan/ton (+ 0); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,780 yuan/ton (+ 100) [4] Raw Materials - The price of Thai smoked sheet was 59.35 Thai baht/kg (- 0.38), the price of Thai glue was 55.30 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.00), the price of Thai cup lump was 50.80 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.35), and the difference between Thai glue and cup lump was 4.50 Thai baht/kg (- 0.35) [4] Operating Rate - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 66.36% (+ 0.05%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.74% (+ 0.13%) [5] Inventory - The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,112,557 tons (- 122,953.00), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 461,188 tons (- 3,550), the RU futures inventory was 154,920 tons (+ 3,180), and the NR futures inventory was 44,553 tons (- 1,411) [5] BR Spot and Spreads - On September 24, 2025, the BR basis was 80 yuan/ton (+ 110), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,150 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,600 yuan/ton (+ 150), the price of private - owned BR in Shandong was 11,450 yuan/ton (+ 50), and the import profit of BR in Northeast Asia was - 1,559 yuan/ton (- 1) [5] Operating Rate - The operating rate of high - cis BR was 69.72% (- 3.76%) [5] Inventory - The inventory of BR traders was 7,820 tons (- 390), and the inventory of BR enterprises was 25,900 tons (- 400) [5]

Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of September 23, cup rubber is priced at 50.45 THB/kg (+0.10), while latex is at 55.30 THB/kg (-0.50) [1] - The acquisition price for Yunnan rubber water is 14,500 CNY/ton (0), Hainan private rubber water is 16,000 CNY/ton (0), Qingdao bonded area Thai standard is 1,830 USD/ton (0), and Thai mixed is 14,800 CNY/ton (-50) [1] Tire Production Rates and Inventory - As of September 18, the capacity utilization rate for China's semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 72.74%, up 0.13 percentage points month-on-month, but down 6.92 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The capacity utilization rate for China's all-steel tire sample enterprises is 66.36%, up 0.05 percentage points month-on-month and up 6.18 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The average inventory turnover days for semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 46.02 days, up 0.08 days month-on-month and up 9.33 days year-on-year; for all-steel tire sample enterprises, it is 39.13 days, up 0.30 days month-on-month and down 5.47 days year-on-year [1] Export Data - In the first eight months of 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 6.5 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, with an export value of 114.2 billion CNY, up 4.6% [2] - The export volume of new inflatable rubber tires was 6.26 million tons, up 4.8% year-on-year, with an export value of 109.7 billion CNY, up 4.4% [2] - The export volume of automotive tires was 5.55 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, with an export value of 94.4 billion CNY, up 4.1% [2] Market Dynamics - Supply expectations indicate a potential weakening of raw material prices, with cost support shifting from strong to weak; however, recent typhoon weather has raised concerns about short-term supply release [2] - Downstream tire manufacturers have largely completed pre-holiday inventory replenishment, leading to a slowdown in the inventory reduction pace of natural rubber [2] - Despite some enterprises facing shortages, overall shipment performance is below expectations, and some companies may adopt flexible production control to alleviate inventory pressure [2]

Group 1: Glass and Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the documents. Core Viewpoints - **Glass**: Last week, the macro environment initially drove the glass futures market up, but the market corrected later. Although the spot market had good sales and inventory decreased, some regions still had high intermediate - level inventories. The deep - processing orders improved seasonally but were still weak, and the low operating rate of low - emissivity (Low - E) glass did not show peak - season characteristics. In the long - term, the real - estate cycle is at the bottom, and the industry needs to clear excess capacity. Track policy implementation and downstream restocking. In the short - term, sentiment drives the market, and track its sustainability. For the medium - term, focus on peak - season demand [3]. - **Rubber**: Near the holiday, capital's risk - aversion sentiment increased, and the macro sentiment of commodities weakened. It is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate weakly in the short term, with the 01 contract ranging from 15,000 - 16,500. In the supply side, the rainy season and typhoons in the producing areas affect rubber tapping, and the expected increase in supply in the future suppresses raw - material prices. The cost support has weakened. The downstream tire factories have basically completed pre - holiday stockpiling, and it is difficult for natural - rubber futures inventory to significantly decrease. In the demand side, some enterprises still lack goods, and the equipment runs stably to replenish inventory, but the overall sales are not as expected, and some enterprises' inventory may increase. Some enterprises may control production flexibly [1]. Summary by Catalog Glass - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass prices in different regions were stable. Glass 2505 rose 1.13% to 1343, and Glass 2509 rose 1.30% to 1405. The 05 - contract basis decreased by 8.43%. For纯碱, prices in different regions were unchanged.纯碱 2505 rose 0.50% to 1407, and纯碱 2509 rose 0.86% to 1454. The 05 - contract basis decreased by 7.00% [3]. - **Supply**: The soda - ash mining rate decreased by 2.02% to 85.53%, and the weekly soda - ash production decreased by 2.02% to 74.57 million tons. The float - glass daily melting volume decreased by 0.47% to 15.95 million tons, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged at 89,290 tons [3]. - **Inventory**: The glass inventory decreased by 1.10% to 6090.80, the soda - ash factory inventory decreased by 2.33% to 175.56 million tons, and the soda - ash delivery - warehouse inventory increased by 10.69% to 61.49 million tons. The glass - factory soda - ash inventory days remained unchanged at 20.4 [3]. - **Real - Estate Data**: The new construction area increased by 0.09% to - 0.09%, the construction area decreased by 2.43% to 0.05%, the completion area decreased by 0.03% to - 0.22%, and the sales area decreased by 6.50% to - 6.55% [3]. Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai decreased by 0.68% to 14,700 yuan/ton, and the full - latex basis decreased by 65. The Thai - standard mixed - rubber price decreased by 1.67% to 14,750 yuan/ton, and the non - standard price difference decreased by 37.72%. The cup - lump price in the international market decreased by 1.16% to 51.05 Thai baht/kg, and the glue price increased by 0.18% to 56.30 [1]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 50.00% to 15, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 66.67% to 5, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 55.56% to - 20 [1]. - **Production**: In July, Thailand's rubber production increased by 1.61% to 421.60 thousand tons, Indonesia's increased by 12.09% to 197.50 thousand tons, and India's decreased by 2.17% to 45.00 thousand tons. China's production decreased by 1.30 to 101.30 thousand tons [1]. - **Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory decreased by 1.66% to 592,275, and the natural - rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 3.07% to 44,553 [1]. Group 2: Log and Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the documents. Core Viewpoints - **Log**: The log futures market closed up last Friday. The spot price of the main deliverable log was stable. The inventory increased, and the demand (out - bound volume) slightly increased. The supply of New Zealand logs to Chinese ports decreased. As the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, observe whether the out - bound volume improves. The price below 800 yuan has high "receiving value". In the "weak reality, strong expectation" situation, it is recommended to buy on dips [4]. - **Industrial Silicon**: From the fundamental perspective, the supply - demand balance of industrial silicon will gradually become looser from September to October. The expected large - scale production cuts of silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan during the flat - and low - water periods will occur at the end of October. The supply will reach a peak in October, and the balance is expected to be significantly loose, then narrow in November. The cost increase in the flat - and low - water periods in the west raises the industry's average cost, bringing positive sentiment to the market. In the short term, the upward - driving force of industrial silicon is insufficient, and the price may oscillate, mainly in the range of 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the production - cut rhythm of silicon - material enterprises and Sichuan - Yunnan industrial - silicon enterprises in the fourth quarter [5]. Summary by Catalog Log - **Prices and Spreads**: Log futures prices in different contracts rose slightly. The 11 - 01 spread decreased by 15 to - 15, the 11 - 03 spread increased by 2.5 to - 20, and the 11 - contract basis decreased by 3.5 to - 55 [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 6.38% to 44. The total inventory of national coniferous logs increased by 2.72% to 302 million cubic meters, and the daily average out - bound volume increased by 3% to 6.29 million cubic meters [4]. Industrial Silicon - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of different types of industrial silicon were stable. The basis of different types of industrial silicon changed significantly. For example, the basis of East - China oxygen - passing SI5530 decreased by 89.89%. The monthly spreads also had large fluctuations, such as the 2510 - 2511 spread decreasing by 233.33% [5]. - **Production and Inventory**: The national industrial - silicon production increased by 14.01% to 38.57 million tons, and the production in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan all increased. The national operating rate increased by 6.20% to 55.87%. The inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 1.07% to 12.04 million tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.74% to 54.30 million tons [5]. Group 3: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the documents. Core Viewpoints A weekly industry self - discipline meeting was held to discuss the self - discipline process. Some leading enterprises plan to cut production. The increase in downstream prices, the meeting, and some enterprises' low inventory (unequally distributed among enterprises) support the polysilicon price increase. Currently, low - price polysilicon resources are scarce and snapped up, while high - price resources face downstream resistance. It is expected that the polysilicon market will continue to oscillate in the short term [6]. Summary by Catalog - **Prices and Spreads**: The average price of N - type re - feed increased by 0.10% to 52,650 yuan/ton, and the average price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 49,500 yuan/ton. The N - type material basis increased by 91.74% to - 50. The main - contract price of polysilicon futures decreased by 0.95% to 52,700. The spreads between different contracts changed significantly [6]. - **Production and Inventory**: The weekly polysilicon production decreased by 0.64% to 3.10 million tons, and the monthly production increased by 23.31% to 13.17 million tons. The polysilicon inventory decreased by 6.85% to 20.40 million tons, and the silicon - wafer inventory increased by 1.93% to 16.87 GW [6].

Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.03%, down 0.01 percentage points from last week, while the demand index remains stable at 49.91%[6] - The monthly ECI supply index is at 50.04%, down 0.03 percentage points from August, and the demand index is at 49.91%, up 0.02 percentage points from August[7] - The ECI investment index is at 49.93%, unchanged from last week, while the consumption index is at 49.68%, down 0.04 percentage points[6] Real Estate and Consumption - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities increased by 14.5% year-on-year, improving from 6.8% in the first half of the month[7] - The retail sales of passenger cars in September showed a year-on-year decline of 4.0%, indicating a gradual emergence of base effect in consumer spending[24] Export and Industrial Production - The cumulative cargo throughput at monitored ports recorded a year-on-year growth of approximately 7.8%, improving from 4.6% in August, suggesting strong export resilience[7] - The industrial production index shows a slight recovery, with the national blast furnace operating rate at 84.00%, up 0.15 percentage points from last week[16] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The ELI index is at -0.73%, down 0.04 percentage points from last week, indicating a slight decrease in liquidity[12] - The central bank is expected to restart the 14-day reverse repurchase operations to stabilize liquidity around the quarter-end, with a net monetary injection of 562.3 billion yuan this week[51] Risks and Policy Measures - Risks include uncertainties in U.S. tariff policies and the potential for policy measures to fall short of market expectations[58] - Recent policies aimed at expanding service consumption were announced, which may help alleviate pressures on commodity consumption and prices[57]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall production is stable, and investment is better than consumption during the period from September 14 to September 20, 2025 [1]. - The industrial production shows marginal improvement, with mixed performance in different sectors. The personnel flow slightly rebounds, and the freight price slightly drops. The consumption shows a decline in the year - on - year wholesale sales of automobiles and a differentiation in prices. The investment has good performance in construction and a recovery in the commercial housing market. The port throughput in exports increases, while most shipping indices decline. - The bond indices generally rise, most stock indices increase, commodities show mixed performance, and most foreign currencies depreciate against the RMB [1]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Category of Assets - This week, bond indices generally rose, most stock indices increased, commodities showed mixed performance, and most foreign currencies declined. The China Bond 7 - 10 - year China Development Bank Bond Index had the largest increase, with a weekly increase of 0.15%. The ChiNext Index had the largest gain among stock indices, with a weekly increase of 2.34%. The Nanhua Black Index among commodities had the largest increase, with a gain of 2.27%, while the Nanhua Precious Metals Index had the largest decline, with a drop of 0.80%. The British pound had the largest decline among foreign currencies, with a weekly decline of 0.50%, and the US dollar depreciated against the RMB, with a weekly decline of 0.14% [1][6]. 3.2. Industrial Production - Production showed marginal improvement. From the upstream perspective, the weekly coal consumption in the national power plant sample area decreased by 1.27% week - on - week, the operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants decreased by 0.50 pcts to 34.40% week - on - week, the blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.15 pcts to 84.00% week - on - week, and the crude steel output increased by 7.19% week - on - week. In the real - estate chain, the operating rate of rebar and float glass remained flat compared to last week at 42.96% and 76.31% respectively, and the mill operation rate increased by 1.18 pcts to 38.55% week - on - week. In the consumer goods chain, the operating rate of polyester filament increased by 0.11 pcts to 91.54% week - on - week, the PTA operating rate increased by 2.34 pcts to 77.29% week - on - week, and the methanol operating rate decreased by 1.81 pcts to 79.39% week - on - week. In the automotive chain, the operating rate of semi - steel tires for automobiles increased by 0.20 pcts to 73.66% week - on - week, and the operating rate of all - steel tires for automobiles increased by 0.07 pcts to 65.66% week - on - week [1][9]. 3.3. People and Freight Flow - The personnel flow slightly rebounded, and the freight price slightly dropped. The 7 - day moving average (7DMA) of the national migration scale index increased by 0.07% week - on - week. The 7DMA of the number of domestic flights increased by 0.80% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of the number of international flights increased by 2.56% week - on - week. The subway passenger volumes in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen all increased. The 4 - week moving average (4WMA) of the road logistics freight rate index decreased by 0.04% week - on - week, and the total volume was higher than the same period in previous years [1][27]. 3.4. Consumption - The year - on - year wholesale sales of automobiles declined, and the prices showed differentiation. The year - on - year wholesale sales of passenger cars decreased by 1.00%, while the year - on - year retail sales increased by 1.00%. The 4WMA of the year - on - year growth rates of both wholesale and retail sales declined. The weekly box office of movies increased by 170% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of the number of movie - goers increased by 176% week - on - week. Most agricultural product prices declined, with the pork price decreasing by 2.01% week - on - week and the vegetable price decreasing by 3.27% week - on - week [1][44]. 3.5. Investment - Construction showed good performance, and the commercial housing market recovered. The cement inventory - to - capacity ratio increased by 0.5 pcts week - on - week, the cement price index increased by 0.42% week - on - week, and the cement shipping rate remained flat compared to last week. The rebar inventory decreased by 0.4% week - on - week, the proportion of profitable steel mills nationwide decreased by 1.3 pcts week - on - week, and the apparent demand for rebar increased by 6.0% week - on - week. The 7DMA of the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased by 7.7% week - on - week, with increases in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities. The 7DMA of the second - hand housing transaction area in 16 cities decreased by 1.6% week - on - week, and the national second - hand housing listing price index decreased by 0.2% week - on - week. The land transaction area in 100 cities decreased, and the land transaction premium rate decreased week - on - week [1][49]. 3.6. Exports - The port throughput increased, and most shipping indices declined. The weekly port cargo throughput increased by 1.8%, and the weekly container throughput increased by 0.1%. The BDI Index increased by 3.62% week - on - week, while the SCFI Index and CCFI Index decreased by 14.30% and 0.45% respectively week - on - week [1][68].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The real - estate policy support is increasing, and the active real - estate transactions in first - tier cities are expected to promote the market to "stop falling and stabilize". The policy toolbox may be further opened, aiming for a soft landing of the market [2]. - This week, the demand side shows that new - home sales are growing year - on - year, and automobile consumption is marginally improving. The production side has stable industrial production with the PTA operating rate recovering. The investment side sees the apparent consumption of rebar improving and its price rising. The trade side shows an increase in port throughput and a decline in export container shipping prices. The price side has a drop in agricultural product prices and a stable operation of the commodity futures market [1][3][4][5][6][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Demand: New - home sales increase year - on - year, and automobile consumption marginally improves - Real - estate: This week, the transaction area of commercial housing in 20 cities has improved both in terms of week - on - week and year - on - year. First - tier cities have seen a significant year - on - year increase. The transaction area of second - hand housing in key cities has mostly increased week - on - week. For example, in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, the second - hand housing transaction areas have increased [3][12]. - Consumption: Automobile consumption has recovered week - on - week, and movie - watching consumption has increased year - on - year. The national migration scale index has decreased week - on - week, and subway ridership has marginally declined [3]. 2. Production: Industrial production runs smoothly, and the PTA operating rate recovers - Mid - and upstream: The operating rate of Tangshan blast furnaces has increased week - on - week. The PTA operating rate has recovered, rising 1.4 pct to 77.2%. The operating rate of polyester filament has slightly increased, while the operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants has decreased [4][51]. - Downstream: The operating rates of automobile all - steel tires and semi - steel tires have increased [4]. 3. Investment: The apparent consumption of rebar recovers, and the rebar price rises - The apparent consumption of rebar has improved, and its price has increased week - on - week. The cement shipping rate has remained flat week - on - week, the cement inventory ratio has increased, and the cement price has remained flat [5][67]. 4. Trade: Port throughput increases, and export container shipping prices decline - Export: Port container throughput has recovered, and the CCFI composite index has decreased week - on - week. The freight rates of European routes have decreased, while those of the US West and US East routes have increased. The BDI index has increased week - on - week [6][78]. - Import: The CICFI composite index has increased 0.4% week - on - week [6][79]. 5. Prices: Agricultural product prices decline, and the commodity futures market operates stably - CPI: The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices has decreased 0.3% week - on - week. Egg prices have risen, while fruit, vegetable, and pork prices have declined [7][90]. - PPI: The Nanhua industrial product price index has increased 1.1% week - on - week. Brent crude oil spot price has increased 1.4%, COMEX gold futures price has increased 0.9%, and LME copper spot price has increased 0.7%. In the commodity futures market, glass, coke, and coking coal have seen relatively large increases, while caustic soda and lithium carbonate have seen declines [7][95][104]. 6. Interest - rate bond tracking: The cumulative issuance progress of replacement bonds this year has reached 99.3% - Next week (9/22 - 9/26), the planned issuance of interest - rate bonds is 447.1 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 138.9 billion yuan. As of September 19, the cumulative issuance progress of replacement bonds this year is 99.3%, the cumulative issuance progress of new general bonds is 82.0%, and the cumulative issuance progress of new special bonds is 79.8% [8][110][115]. 7. Policy Weekly Observation: The central bank adjusts the open - market 14 - day reverse repurchase operation - On September 15, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange stated that relevant foreign exchange management measures need to be optimized and adjusted to adapt to the new situation of the real - estate market. - On September 16, nine departments including the Ministry of Commerce issued measures to expand service consumption. - On September 19, the central bank adjusted the open - market 14 - day reverse repurchase operation to a fixed - quantity, interest - rate tender, and multi - price winning bid [121].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's expectation of a rate cut in September is positive for rubber prices. There is some support on the supply side, but there is still supply pressure later. The demand side shows good performance, and inventory is continuously being depleted. It is expected that the market will likely maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short term [8][9][87][88]. - The main contract of natural rubber futures is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short term. For the operation strategy, consider going long at low levels on the long - side; pay attention to the reverse arbitrage opportunity between 2511 - 2601; and temporarily hold off on options [9][90][91]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the price of the main contract of natural rubber, RU2601, ranged between 15,670 - 16,350 yuan/ton. The futures price fluctuated downward with a relatively large overall decline. As of the close on the afternoon of September 12, 2025, the main contract RU2601 closed at 15,820 yuan/ton, down 505 points for the week, a decrease of 3.09% [14]. Spot Price - As of September 12, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,950 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Thai triple smoked sheets (RSS3) was 19,700 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 15,250 yuan/ton, the same as last week. The Qingdao natural rubber arrival price was 2,170 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton from last week [19][22]. Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main contract of natural rubber as the futures reference price, the basis between the two narrowed slightly compared with last week. As of September 12, 2025, the basis was maintained at - 1,005 yuan/ton, narrowing 170 yuan/ton compared with last week. The domestic and foreign prices of natural rubber both declined compared with last week [26][28]. Important Market Information - US economic data: The US non - farm payrolls were revised down by 911,000 from March last year to March this year. The August PPI inflation unexpectedly declined, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%. The August CPI was 2.9% year - on - year, in line with expectations. The initial jobless claims increased by 27,000 to 263,000. The September Michigan consumer confidence index was at a new low since May. Morgan Stanley predicts that the Fed may cut interest rates by 100 basis points starting from September [29][30]. - European economic data: The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged for the second consecutive meeting, indicating that the inflation - reduction process in the eurozone has ended [30]. - Chinese economic data: In August, China's core CPI increased by 0.9% year - on - year, with the increase expanding for the fourth consecutive month. The PPI decline narrowed, and the month - on - month figure was flat. The total import and export value in August increased by 3.5% year - on - year. The automobile production and sales in August increased by 13% and 16.4% year - on - year respectively. From January to August, the automobile production and sales exceeded 20 million for the first time [32][34][35]. Supply - side Situation - Natural rubber production: As of July 31, 2025, the production in Vietnam increased significantly compared with the previous month, while that in Indonesia and Thailand increased slightly. The production in China, Malaysia, and India decreased slightly. The total production of major natural rubber - producing countries in July was 927,000 tons, an increase of 91,600 tons or 10.96% compared with the previous month [40]. - Synthetic rubber production: As of July 31, 2025, the monthly production of synthetic rubber in China was 737,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%, and the cumulative production was 5.12 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.1% [44][48]. - Tire imports: As of July 31, 2025, the import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 10,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.64% [52]. Demand - side Situation - Tire enterprise operating rates: As of September 11, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 73.46%, an increase of 5.99% compared with last week; the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 65.59%, an increase of 5.81% compared with last week [54]. - Automobile production and sales: As of August 31, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 2.815 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13% and a month - on - month increase of 8.7%. The monthly sales were 2.857 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 16.4% and a month - on - month increase of 10.1% [58][61]. - Heavy - truck sales: As of July 31, 2025, China's monthly heavy - truck sales were 84,885 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 45.62% and a month - on - month decrease of 13.26% [67]. - Tire exports: As of July 31, 2025, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 66.65 million pieces, a month - on - month increase of 10.51% [74]. Inventory - side Situation - As of September 12, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 151,740 tons, a decrease of 10,490 tons compared with last week. As of September 7, 2025, China's social inventory of natural rubber was 1.258 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7,000 tons or 0.57%. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 793,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 465,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 592,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 tons or 1.66% [84]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: Currently, the global natural rubber producing areas are in the peak supply season. Recently, the weather in Southeast Asian main producing areas has affected the tapping progress, boosting raw material prices. In domestic producing areas, the new rubber supply rhythm has slowed down. In July 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 474,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.91%. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 3.6005 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.82%, with the increase rate lower than in previous years [85]. - Demand side: Last week, enterprises that had undergone maintenance resumed production, and the operating rates of tire enterprises significantly rebounded. The inventory of all - steel tires was continuously depleted, with a high operating rate; the inventory of semi - steel tires was depleted slowly, and downstream stocking was cautious. In August, China's automobile production and sales increased by 13% and 16.4% year - on - year respectively. From January to August, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 20 million for the first time. In July 2025, China's tire exports were 812,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to July, the cumulative tire exports were 4.9339 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18% [85]. - Inventory side: Last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased significantly, and China's social inventory of natural rubber and the total inventory in Qingdao continued to decline slightly [86]. Future Outlook - Macro aspect: The significant downward revision of US non - farm payrolls and the unexpected decline in US PPI inflation data last week have increased the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. China's core CPI in August increased by 0.9% year - on - year, with the increase expanding for the fourth consecutive month; the PPI decline narrowed, and the month - on - month figure was flat, ending the eight - month downward trend [87]. - Fundamental aspect: On the supply side, the weather in Southeast Asian main producing areas has affected the tapping progress, and the new rubber supply rhythm in domestic producing areas has slowed down. From January to July, the cumulative import volume increased by 21.82%, with the increase rate lower than in previous years. On the demand side, the operating rates of tire enterprises rebounded significantly last week. The inventory of all - steel tires was continuously depleted, and the inventory of semi - steel tires was depleted slowly. In August, China's automobile production and sales increased by 13% and 16.4% year - on - year respectively. From January to August, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 20 million for the first time. The cumulative tire production in 2025 increased slightly year - on - year. From January to July, the cumulative tire export data increased slightly year - on - year. In terms of inventory, last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to decline, and China's social inventory of natural rubber and the total inventory in Qingdao continued to decline slightly, with a slightly larger depletion rate [87]. Views and Operation Strategies - This week's view: It is expected that the main contract of natural rubber futures will maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short term [90]. - Operation strategy: Consider going long at low levels on the long - side; pay attention to the reverse arbitrage opportunity between 2511 - 2601; and temporarily hold off on options [91].

Core Insights - In July 2025, China's automotive tire imports decreased to 0.59 million tons, representing a year-on-year decline of 3.3% [1] - The import value for the same period was $0.39 billion, down 4.7% year-on-year [1] - Conversely, China's automotive tire exports reached 791,000 tons in July 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 10.5% [1] - The export value for July 2025 was $1.853 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.3% [1] Import and Export Analysis - The decline in import volume and value indicates a potential reduction in domestic demand or increased local production capabilities [1] - The growth in export volume and value suggests a strengthening position for Chinese automotive tires in international markets [1] - The contrasting trends in imports and exports may highlight shifts in the competitive landscape of the automotive tire industry in China [1]