潘森宏观：特朗普关税威胁令欧洲央行利率决议陷入迷雾 金十数据7月22日讯，潘森宏观经济学家Claus Vistesen指出，美国总统特朗普的关税威胁难以辨别是真 实意图还是谈判筹码，这给欧洲央行的利率决议蒙上阴影。该行管委会本周料将维持基准利率在2.00% 不变。Vistesen表示，部分委员可能重点关注特朗普威胁对欧洲进口商品加征的30%关税——此举将重 创欧元区经济。他在致投资者的报告中写道，"但政策制定者面临的困境在于，他们无法确定特朗普是 否真打算实施此类关税，更不用说是否长期维持此关税。"这使得欧洲央行本周或将按兵不动，并转而 关注9月会议，届时欧盟和美国的贸易关系可能会更加明朗。 ...

Group 1: U.S. Tariff Threats - The U.S. has threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Russian goods if a peace agreement is not reached within 50 days, impacting global trade dynamics [1][3] - This tariff threat extends to countries that trade with Russia or purchase Russian oil, indicating a broader strategy to exert pressure on Russia and reshape European positions in the conflict [3] Group 2: European Reactions - European countries have shown mixed responses to the U.S. tariff threat, with the Dutch Prime Minister expressing willingness to support U.S. aid to Ukraine, while Germany has delayed its energy sanctions against Russia [3] - Previous U.S. sanctions have already caused significant losses in the European automotive industry, amounting to over €12 billion, with German car inventories increasing by 47% year-on-year [3] Group 3: Russia's Countermeasures - In response to U.S. actions, Russia is diversifying its energy exports, aiming to increase oil exports to China to 800,000 barrels per day and restarting discounted oil exports to India, with daily volumes exceeding 1.2 million barrels [4][6] - Russia's military continues to demonstrate strong capabilities on the battlefield, despite facing challenges such as manpower shortages and economic pressures [4][6] Group 4: Economic Challenges for Russia - Russia's economy is heavily reliant on energy exports, which account for nearly 30% of its federal budget, and has seen a 45% drop in energy export revenues due to U.S. tariffs and previous sanctions [6] - The ruble has experienced significant depreciation, falling below 100 to 1 USD, and despite the Central Bank's efforts to lower interest rates to 20%, economic instability persists [6] Group 5: Global Implications - The tariff conflict between the U.S. and Russia has broader implications for global political and economic landscapes, with the U.S. facing potential loss of international credibility if it fails to compel Russia to comply [8] - Russia must navigate the dual challenges of manpower shortages and economic strain while maintaining domestic stability and its international stance [8]

发表全国讲话："无法接受的讹诈" 新华社北京7月18日电（记者郭倩）巴西电视和广播媒体17日晚播出总统卢拉面向全国民众的讲话，卢拉在讲话中批评美方威胁对巴西商品征 收50%关税是"让人无法接受的讹诈"。卢拉当天还在一场活动上表示，巴西不会听令于外国人。 巴西电视和广播媒体17日晚播出预先录制的卢拉面向全国民众的讲话。卢拉表示，巴西此前一直在与美国就关税问题进行谈判，已于5月向美 方提交一份方案。 接受美媒采访：特朗普不是"世界皇帝" 卢拉说，巴西捍卫主权的方式包括保护自身免受外国数字平台的侵害，将继续对美国技术企业进行监管和征税。 1月30日，巴西总统卢拉在首都巴西利亚总统府参加记者会。新华社发（卢西奥·塔沃拉摄） 4月9日，巴西总统卢拉在洪都拉斯首都特古西加尔巴的拉美和加勒比国家共同体第九届峰会会场致意。新华社发（戴维·德拉帕斯摄） "我们期待得到回应，但我们收到的是让人无法接受的讹诈，这种讹诈表现为对巴西的威胁和有关巴西与美国贸易的虚假信息。"卢拉说。 美国总统特朗普9日在社交媒体上发布致卢拉的信函，威胁将自8月1日起对所有从巴西进口的商品征收50%关税，同时要求卢拉政府停止对前 总统博索纳罗的司法调查， ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the severe implications of the U.S. imposing a 100% punitive tariff on Russian goods if a ceasefire is not reached within 50 days, which could effectively sever the limited trade channels between the U.S. and Russia [1][5] - The U.S. Senator Graham's threat of imposing up to 500% tariffs on countries like China that maintain trade relations with Russia indicates a broader strategy to reshape global trade flows through economic coercion [1][3] - Russia's Foreign Minister Lavrov's visit to China is seen as a strategic move to seek support from China amidst increasing Western pressure, emphasizing the importance of Sino-Russian cooperation [1][8] Group 2 - China's response to the U.S. tariffs is clear and consistent, with a strong opposition to unilateral sanctions and a commitment to political solutions for the Ukraine crisis, reflecting its independent foreign policy stance [3][6] - The current U.S.-Russia trade is nearly frozen, with a projected bilateral trade volume of only about $600 million in 2024, making the 100% tariff more of a political gesture than a practical measure [5][6] - The article suggests that the U.S. strategy of using tariffs as a weapon is facing challenges due to the resilience of major powers like China and Russia, indicating a potential failure of the U.S. approach to leverage tariffs to influence global dynamics [8]

美国零售销售在各领域全面反弹，或有助于缓解部分对消费者支出回落的担忧。13个零售类别中有10个 实现增长，主要受汽车销售带动，汽车销售在连续两个月下滑后回升。今年以来，由于关税威胁加剧多 年来的生活成本压力，美国人对经济和自身财务状况大多持悲观态度，尽管近期信心有所回升。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Analysts are warning that global investors may be underestimating President Trump's commitment to his latest tariff threats, which could have significant implications for the market [2][3] Group 1: Market Reactions - The European market reacted mildly to Trump's announcement of a 30% tariff on goods imported from the EU and Mexico, with the Stoxx 600 index only dropping 0.06% on the first trading day after the announcement [2] - The index experienced a slightly deeper sell-off of 0.4% the following day, primarily influenced by concerns over rising inflation and economic growth [2] - In contrast to earlier market reactions, the current sentiment appears more complacent, despite the impending higher tariff rates compared to those set in April [2][3] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Many investors are betting on the "TACO" trade, believing that Trump's tariff threats are merely negotiation tactics and unlikely to be fully realized [3] - Some analysts express concern that this complacency could lead to significant losses for investors who expect a trade agreement to be reached [3][4] Group 3: Economic Implications - Analysts warn that the implementation of a 30% tariff could derail the current bullish trend in European markets, potentially leading to a slowdown in GDP growth [6] - The Stoxx 600 index has risen over 7% this year, with significant gains in major indices like Germany's DAX and Italy's FTSE MIB, but high tariffs could disrupt this momentum [5][6] Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - If tariffs are implemented, sectors such as defense, finance, and mining may perform relatively well, especially if defense spending continues to rise and the European Central Bank maintains low interest rates [6] - Conversely, European exporters, particularly in the automotive sector, are expected to be adversely affected by the tariffs [6]

有关美国总统特朗普即将解雇美联储主席鲍威尔的消息在7月16日引发市场剧烈波动：长期美债收益率 和通胀预期飙升，股市和美元大幅下跌。随后，特朗普迅速表示自己"极不可能"试图罢免鲍威尔，仍认 为鲍威尔的政策宽松步伐不够快，市场部分回稳。 当前市场普遍认为，特朗普未必会真正落实现有的关税或人事威胁，因此5%的收益率门槛仍具有一定 支撑，尤其是因为短期通胀预期仍处于相对温和水平。虽然5月份两年期盈亏平衡通胀率曾升至约 3.4%，但随着几份通胀数据表现尚可，该指标已回落至2.7%左右。 然而，如果特朗普确实在美联储或贸易方面采取激进行动，通胀预期将被推高，整个收益率曲线也将随 之上移。此外，长期利率对通胀不确定性的反应最为敏感，曲线倾向进一步变陡。不过，若鲍威尔真的 被撤职，引发的市场波动可能更偏向利率下行的风险。 分析师认为，特朗普正在试探罢免鲍威尔的可能性。市场的剧烈反应似乎让他暂时收回了相关言论，但 白宫与美联储之间进一步升级冲突的风险正在上升。 媒体报道，到目前为止，5%的收益率水平一直充当着30年期美债的上限。但如果特朗普真的付诸行 动，解雇美联储主席鲍威尔，或是如近期相关信函中所暗示的那样，对贸易伙伴征收更 ...

德国财政部长克林贝尔：特朗普的关税威胁对美国经济的影响至少和欧洲的企业一样大。 ...

金十数据7月16日讯，欧洲央行管委内格尔在接受采访时表示，需要"稳健之手"来应对特朗普最新关税 威胁所带来的不确定性。他表示，就货币政策而言，目前需要"稳健的政策"，地缘政治环境和与美国的 贸易冲突对价格的影响"极其不确定"。欧洲央行在6月的上次会议后表示，7月会议可能会维持利率不 变。五位政策制定者表示，特朗普威胁对欧盟进口商品征收30%的关税使决策变得复杂，但不太可能破 坏这一计划。 欧洲央行内格尔呼吁在关税动荡中保持政策稳健 ...

美国总统特朗普14日表示，如果俄乌50天内达不成协议，美国将对俄罗斯征收100%的关税，对购买俄 罗斯石油的国家征收次级关税。对此，俄罗斯政治学家马列克.杜达科夫表示，俄方会冷静对待美国的 相关举措。他说，他认为俄罗斯不会在政治、军事或经济领域出现急剧转变。俄方对潜在风险的评估始 终保持冷静态度。对于特朗普说美国将通过北约向乌克兰提供先进武器装备，杜达科夫称受限于美国军 工复合体目前的效率，最终这些武器投入实战的时间是一个问题。(央视新闻) ...