策变化带来的新增影响。操作上建议，沪铅主力合约2506在17000元/吨附近轻仓做空，止损17300元/吨， 免责声明 注意操作节奏及风险控制。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 然没有波动，但是依旧维持低位，因此对于后续再生铅和原生铅复工起到了部分影响。综上所述，沪铅价 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 格短期可能受到去库影响小幅反弹，但反弹高度预计有限，后续依旧受到需求影响高位回落，注意关税政 沪铅产业日报 2025-05-12 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪铅主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 16995 | 190 LME3个月铅报价(日,美元/吨) | 1981.5 | 37 | | | 06-07月合约价差:沪铅(日,元/吨) | -5 | -15 沪铅持仓量(日,手) ...

铅精矿加工费仍低位维持，富含计价金属价格波动较大，炼厂原料采买较谨慎；再生铅在原料偏紧及亏 损的背景下，安徽、江苏、江西等地炼厂减产，且新增产能延后投产，供应缩减。铅蓄电池企业开工小 幅恢复，但电池替换已步入尾声，经销商成品库存累计较多，存在库存压力。短期铅价基本面支撑较 强，宏观方面短期或暂无利好，铅价或震荡调整为主。 消息面 4月29日，伦敦金属交易所（LME）：铅注册仓单116625吨，注销仓单150650吨，减少3750吨；铅库存 267275吨，减少3750吨。 周二，上海市场驰宏铅16975-17005元/吨，对沪铅2505合约升水50-80元/吨；济金铅16925-16945元/吨， 对沪铅2505合约升水0-20元/吨；江浙地区金德铅报16925-16945元/吨，对沪铅2505合约升水0-20元/吨。 机构观点 中金财富期货： 4月29日，上期所沪铅期货仓单录得38398吨，较上一交易日增加427吨；最近一周，沪铅期货仓单累计 减少4348吨，减少幅度为10.17%；最近一个月，沪铅期货仓单累计减少24517吨，减少幅度为38.97%。 五矿期货： 铅矿库存录增，原生开工高企，废料库存有限， ...

Core Viewpoint - Lead prices experienced a rise followed by a decline, with the Shanghai lead index closing up 0.08% at 16,944 CNY/ton [1] Market Performance - As of last Friday, the London lead price increased by 12.5 to 1,950.5 USD/ton, with total positions at 148,500 lots [1] - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,875 CNY/ton, while recycled refined lead averaged 16,850 CNY/ton, resulting in a price difference of 25 CNY/ton [1] - The average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,400 CNY/ton [1] Inventory and Supply - The Shanghai Futures Exchange recorded lead ingot futures inventory at 38,000 tons, while domestic social inventory decreased to 48,800 tons [1] - LME lead ingot inventory stood at 277,900 tons, with 161,300 tons in canceled warrants [1] - The cash-3S contract basis was -21.19 USD/ton, and the 3-15 price difference was -70.3 USD/ton [1] Production and Demand - The primary smelting operating rate was recorded at 66.23%, with primary ingot factory inventory at 13,000 tons [1] - Recycled lead inventory was 76,000 tons, with weekly production of recycled lead ingots at 38,000 tons and factory inventory at 19,000 tons [1] - The operating rate of lead-acid batteries was 73.56% [1] Market Outlook - Overall, lead ore inventory is increasing, primary production remains high, and scrap inventory is limited, leading to pressure on recycling profits and some reduction in output from recycling plants [1] - The lead ingot factory inventory accumulation is faster than previous years due to extended holidays [1] - The mid-term outlook for the Shanghai lead index is expected to fluctuate within the range of 16,300 to 17,800, with short-term lead prices showing a weak oscillation [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The precious metals continue to strengthen under macro - driving, but the non - ferrous metals sector has a downward trend due to the divergence of industrial demand from precious metals. The current downstream acceptance of high - priced lead is relatively limited, the spot premium has weakened marginally, the primary supply remains high, and the positive factors of tight recycled raw materials and environmental inspections have been gradually digested by the market. After a large number of cancelled warehouse receipts overseas, the market's reaction to the positive factors is relatively limited. The lead price lacks the impetus to rise, and there is still a large risk of decline in the future [1][30] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Supply - In 2025, the tight situation of lead ore may improve marginally. Large lead - zinc mine projects such as Huoshaoyun in China and Jipushi in Africa are put into production, which is expected to increase the lead ore supply marginally and raise the lead concentrate TC. Lead smelting enterprises have a high willingness to start production due to the high prices of by - products such as silver and sulfuric acid. As of early March 2025, the weekly operating rate of primary lead smelters under the SMM caliber reached 66%, which is a significant increase compared with the same period in previous years, and the supply of primary lead ingots is expected to be loose [2] 3.2 Recycled Supply - Although the "reverse invoicing" policy of the State Administration of Taxation standardizes the waste battery recycling process, the short - term supply gap of waste materials is still large, which restricts the utilization rate of recycled lead production capacity. The rising price of waste batteries provides strong support for the lower limit of the lead price. In addition, policies such as "air pollution prevention and control" force smelting enterprises to upgrade equipment, and some small and medium - sized enterprises may withdraw from the market due to non - compliance with environmental protection requirements. Sudden events such as environmental inspections and production restrictions may suppress the supply of recycled lead periodically. In the medium term, the supply of recycled lead ingots will tighten marginally [9] 3.3 Lead Ingot Demand 3.3.1 Power Battery Consumption - The "trade - in" policy proposed during the Two Sessions will significantly benefit the demand for lead - acid batteries. In 2024, the number of electric bicycles traded in nationwide exceeded 1.38 million, and from January to February 2025, the number reached 1.019 million. It is expected that the consumption of lead ingots brought by power batteries will increase steadily [13] 3.3.2 Starting Battery Consumption - Most domestic automobiles use lead - acid batteries as starting power sources, and the booming new - energy vehicle industry is expected to provide the main incremental demand for lead ingots. However, on March 26, local time, US President Trump signed an executive order to impose a 25% tariff on all imported automobiles and light trucks. In 2024, China's automobile exports to the US were 116,000, accounting for only 1.8% of China's total automobile exports and 0.4% of domestic sales. Therefore, the direct impact of tariffs on domestic lead ingot demand is small, but it suppresses the global lead ingot consumption expectation to some extent [13] 3.3.3 Fixed Battery Consumption - Supported by special bonds, the construction of communication base stations and urban renewal projects is accelerating. 5G base station construction and data centers need a large number of lead - acid batteries as backup power sources. Although the single - consumption of fixed batteries is low, they are still expected to bring some incremental consumption of lead ingots [14] 3.3.4 Short - term Demand - In the short term, the weekly operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has dropped slightly to 73.86%. The off - season of downstream lead - acid battery consumption has arrived, the finished product inventory of dealers remains at a high level over the years, and the willingness of battery enterprises and dealers to pick up goods is relatively limited, resulting in a marginal weakening of the domestic spot [17] 3.4 Disk Structure 3.4.1 Domestic Monthly Spread - The futures inventory of lead ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 61,200 tons, and the domestic social inventory remains flat at 69,100 tons. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots is 17,150 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead is 17,125 yuan/ton, and the price difference between refined and waste is 25 yuan/ton. The average price of waste electric vehicle batteries is 10,275 yuan/ton. The domestic primary basis is - 205 yuan/ton, and the price difference between the continuous contract and the first - continuous contract is - 45 yuan/ton [29] 3.4.2 Overseas Monthly Spread - The LME lead ingot inventory is 231,200 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warehouse receipts are 131,600 tons. The basis of the outer - market cash - 3S contract is - 1 US dollar/ton, and the 3 - 15 price difference is - 54.1 US dollars/ton. On March 26 and 27, the LME market cancelled 118,800 tons of warehouse receipts continuously, and the registered warehouse receipts decreased sharply to less than 100,000 tons [29] 3.4.3 Cross - Market Spread - After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London price ratio of the disk is 1.191, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots is - 528.21 yuan/ton [30] 3.4.4 Single - Side Price - The precious metals continue to strengthen under macro - driving, but the non - ferrous metals sector has a downward trend due to the divergence of industrial demand from precious metals. The current downstream acceptance of high - priced lead is relatively limited, the spot premium has weakened marginally, the primary supply remains high, and the positive factors of tight recycled raw materials and environmental inspections have been gradually digested by the market. After a large number of cancelled warehouse receipts overseas, the market's reaction to the positive factors is relatively limited. The lead price lacks the impetus to rise, and there is still a large risk of decline in the future [30]