Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that domestic aluminum inventory has slightly increased, leading to a relatively stable aluminum price despite a decrease in short positions as the delivery month approaches [1] - As of the latest data, domestic aluminum ingot inventory reached 468,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons compared to the previous week, while aluminum rod inventory also rose by 5,000 tons to 148,000 tons [1] - The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20,590 yuan/ton, with a trading range expected between 20,300 and 20,800 yuan/ton in the short term [1] Group 2 - The Shanghai lead index rose by 0.46% to 17,204 yuan/ton, with total open interest at 82,400 contracts [1] - LME lead inventory stands at 273,400 tons, with a cancellation stock of 70,700 tons, indicating a strong market for lead despite weak domestic consumption [1] - The overall supply of primary lead remains high while recycled lead supply is tight, leading to a recovery in lead-acid battery prices and improved purchasing from downstream sectors [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant drop in lead prices, which fell over 1% in a single day, raising questions about the potential for further declines given the high inventory levels of 295,000 tons [1] Group 2 - The article discusses the pressure on lead prices due to the substantial inventory, suggesting that the market may face challenges in absorbing this excess supply [1] - It raises concerns about the future trajectory of copper prices, indicating that the current market conditions may influence copper's performance moving forward [1]

智通财经5月19日电，伦铅跌幅达2%，报1965.5美元/吨。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lead futures market is experiencing a slight decline, with the main contract down 0.62% and trading at 16,895.00 yuan, indicating a weak market sentiment [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Jinrui Futures suggests that the lead price will fluctuate within the range of 16,700 to 17,200 yuan, supported by a decrease in overseas lead inventory and a warming macroeconomic environment [2]. - New Lake Futures emphasizes a range-bound trading strategy due to stable production from primary lead smelters and a decline in imported lead ore treatment charges [3]. - Copper Crown Jinyuan Futures notes that the lead price is expected to maintain a high-level consolidation in the short term, influenced by delivery impacts and inventory pressures [4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side shows stable production from primary lead smelters, while the recycling sector faces challenges with rising losses and low operating rates due to reduced battery scrap inventory [3]. - Demand for lead-acid batteries has increased post-holiday but remains below pre-holiday levels, contributing to downward pressure on orders during the off-season [3]. - Overall, the combination of seasonal demand weakness and reduced export activity creates significant upward pressure on lead prices, despite strong long-term cost support [3][4].

伦铅日内涨幅达2.00%，现报1956.50美元/吨。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that lead prices have increased by 2% within the day, currently reported at $1956.5 per ton [1]

Core Viewpoint - Lead prices experienced a rise followed by a decline, with the Shanghai lead index closing up 0.08% at 16,944 CNY/ton [1] Market Performance - As of last Friday, the London lead price increased by 12.5 to 1,950.5 USD/ton, with total positions at 148,500 lots [1] - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,875 CNY/ton, while recycled refined lead averaged 16,850 CNY/ton, resulting in a price difference of 25 CNY/ton [1] - The average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,400 CNY/ton [1] Inventory and Supply - The Shanghai Futures Exchange recorded lead ingot futures inventory at 38,000 tons, while domestic social inventory decreased to 48,800 tons [1] - LME lead ingot inventory stood at 277,900 tons, with 161,300 tons in canceled warrants [1] - The cash-3S contract basis was -21.19 USD/ton, and the 3-15 price difference was -70.3 USD/ton [1] Production and Demand - The primary smelting operating rate was recorded at 66.23%, with primary ingot factory inventory at 13,000 tons [1] - Recycled lead inventory was 76,000 tons, with weekly production of recycled lead ingots at 38,000 tons and factory inventory at 19,000 tons [1] - The operating rate of lead-acid batteries was 73.56% [1] Market Outlook - Overall, lead ore inventory is increasing, primary production remains high, and scrap inventory is limited, leading to pressure on recycling profits and some reduction in output from recycling plants [1] - The lead ingot factory inventory accumulation is faster than previous years due to extended holidays [1] - The mid-term outlook for the Shanghai lead index is expected to fluctuate within the range of 16,300 to 17,800, with short-term lead prices showing a weak oscillation [1]