Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the real-time prices of various metals in the London Metal Exchange as of September 22, 20:30 [1] - Nickel increased by 0.04%, copper by 0.02%, and lead by 0.09% [1] - Zinc saw a significant rise of 1.11%, while aluminum experienced a decline of 0.73%, and tin increased by 0.24% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The London metal futures market is experiencing an upward trend across multiple varieties, indicating a positive sentiment in the sector [1] Group 1: Price Movements - As of 20:30, the following price changes were noted: - Nickel increased by 1.14% - Copper rose by 0.35% - Lead saw a rise of 0.50% - Zinc went up by 1.06% - Aluminum increased by 0.88% - Tin experienced a rise of 0.47% [1]

Metal Market - As of the midday close, domestic base metals showed positive performance with Shanghai aluminum up 0.48%, copper up 0.59%, zinc up 0.36%, lead up 0.24%, while nickel fell 0.17% and tin rose 0.56% [1] - In the futures market, casting aluminum main contract rose 0.47%, alumina main contract rose 0.41%, lithium carbonate main contract rose 0.29%, and industrial silicon main contract continued its previous day's upward trend with a rise of 1.64% [1] - The black metal sector experienced a general decline, with iron ore down 1.18%, rebar down 0.71%, and stainless steel down 0.39% [1] Foreign Metal Market - As of 11:39, LME metals showed mixed results with copper down 0.16%, nickel down 0.3%, and tin down 0.31%, while aluminum rose 0.13% [1] - In precious metals, COMEX gold fell 0.27% and silver fell 0.06%, while Shanghai gold main contract fell 0.26% and Shanghai silver main contract rose 0.2% [1] Futures Market - The Euro line shipping main contract fell 4.08%, closing at 1219 points [2][3] - Various futures showed specific price movements, such as industrial silicon main contract up 1.64% and copper main contract up 0.59% [3] Spot Market and Fundamentals - In the copper market, Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper spot price showed a premium of 0-60 CNY/ton against the current month contract, with an average premium of 30 CNY/ton, down 10 CNY/ton from the previous trading day [4] - The People's Bank of China conducted a net injection of 794 billion CNY through reverse repos, maintaining the operation rate at 1.40% [4] Oil Market - As of 11:39, both WTI and Brent crude oil futures showed slight declines, with WTI down 0.11% and Brent down 0.1% [7] - The EIA reported an increase in U.S. crude oil inventories by 3.9 million barrels, contrary to analyst expectations of a decrease [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex trend with different performances in various sectors. Some sectors are influenced by macro - policies, economic data, and supply - demand fundamentals. For example, the capital market is supported by policies, but short - term fluctuations may occur. In the bond market, interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term, but short - term oscillations are likely. In the commodity market, different metals, energy, and agricultural products have their own supply - demand situations and price trends [3][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial Index Futures - **Message**: Two departments clarify tax policies for state - owned equity and cash income transferred to enrich social security funds; Musk says Optimus robots may be widely used in the next few years; Yushu Technology plans to submit an IPO application in Q4; US and UK bond yields rise [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: Different basis ratios are presented for IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts [3]. - **Trading Logic**: The policy is supportive of the capital market. After recent continuous rises, short - term market fluctuations may intensify, but the general strategy is to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market**: On Tuesday, TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts declined. There are news about visa - free policies for Russia and high UK bond yields. The central bank conducted 2557 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1501 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy**: Although the manufacturing PMI improved in August but remained below the boom - bust line, and exports may face pressure. With loose funds and weak domestic demand recovery, interest rates are expected to decline, but the bond market may oscillate in the short - term [4][5]. Precious Metals - **Market**: Shanghai gold and silver, and COMEX gold and silver prices rose. The weak US economic data and potential Fed policy changes supported precious metal prices. - **Outlook**: The Fed may enter an unexpected interest - rate cut cycle, which will be beneficial to precious metals. Silver may outperform gold, and the strategy is to go long on silver on dips [6][7]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market**: Copper prices rose. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic copper supply pressure was relieved by factors such as tight scrap supply and smelting maintenance. - **Outlook**: With a high probability of Fed rate cuts and strong price support, copper prices are expected to be oscillating and strengthening in the short - term [9]. Aluminum - **Market**: Aluminum prices rose. Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory was relatively low, and demand was marginally improving. - **Outlook**: With a dovish Fed signal, aluminum prices are supported. Attention should be paid to inventory changes, and prices may rise if the inventory turns [11]. Zinc - **Market**: Zinc prices showed a low - level oscillation. Zinc concentrate inventory increased seasonally, and social inventory of zinc ingots continued to rise. - **Outlook**: Despite high Fed rate - cut expectations, the industry is in an oversupply situation, and zinc prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [12]. Lead - **Market**: Lead prices were expected to strengthen. Lead concentrate inventory decreased, and supply was marginally reduced. - **Outlook**: With high Fed rate - cut expectations, lead prices are expected to run strongly [13][14]. Nickel - **Market**: Nickel prices were weakly oscillating. Nickel iron prices were expected to be stable and strong, and the supply of intermediate products was tight. - **Outlook**: With positive macro - atmosphere and potential policy support, nickel prices have limited downside space. The strategy is to go long on dips [15]. Tin - **Market**: Tin prices oscillated. Supply decreased significantly due to slow mine复产 and planned smelter maintenance, while demand was in the off - season. - **Outlook**: Tin prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market**: Lithium carbonate prices continued to decline. There was a lack of positive drivers, and the market was in a weak adjustment. - **Outlook**: Pay attention to overseas supply and industrial news. The price reference range for the 2511 contract is 70,000 - 74,500 yuan/ton [17]. Alumina - **Market**: Alumina prices rose slightly. Ore supply was disturbed, and futures inventory increased. - **Outlook**: After a sharp decline, the downside space is limited. The strategy is to wait and see. The reference range for the AO2601 contract is 2900 - 3300 yuan/ton [18][19]. Stainless Steel - **Market**: Stainless steel prices were strong. Concerns about nickel supply and approaching traditional consumption seasons supported prices. - **Outlook**: With the approaching of the consumption season, demand is expected to increase, and prices may rise [20]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market**: Cast aluminum alloy prices rose slightly. The market was transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and costs were supportive. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to run at a high level in the short - term [21]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market**: Rebar prices rose slightly, and hot - rolled coil prices declined slightly. Production was high, demand was weak, and inventory was accumulating. - **Outlook**: If demand does not improve, prices may continue to decline. Attention should be paid to raw material prices and production restrictions [23][24]. Iron Ore - **Market**: Iron ore prices rose slightly. Overseas shipments increased, and steel production decreased. - **Outlook**: Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the impact of steel mill restrictions [25][26]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Prices were stable. Production was high, inventory decreased, and demand was weak. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, and may rise if policies are favorable [27][28]. - **Soda Ash**: Prices were stable. Production increased, inventory decreased, and demand was average. Prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term and may rise in the long - term [28]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market**: Manganese silicon prices were weakly oscillating, and ferrosilicon prices declined slightly. - **Outlook**: With the weakening of "anti - involution" sentiment, prices are expected to move towards fundamentals. Manganese silicon may remain weak before mid - October, and the strategy is to wait and see [29][30][31]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: Prices declined slightly. Supply was increasing, demand was weak, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [32][33]. - **Polysilicon**: Prices declined slightly. Supply was increasing, and the market was in a "weak reality, strong expectation" situation. Prices are expected to fluctuate highly, and may rise if positive news emerges [34][35]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market**: NR and RU oscillated. Weather in Thailand may push prices up, and there are different views on supply and demand. - **Strategy**: A long - term bullish view. In the short - term, a bullish approach is recommended, and partial closing of the long - RU2601 and short - RU2509 position is suggested [37][40]. Crude Oil - **Market**: Crude oil and related product prices rose. Geo - political premiums disappeared, but prices were undervalued. - **Strategy**: Maintain a long - position view, but avoid chasing high prices [41]. Methanol - **Market**: Methanol prices declined. Supply was increasing, demand was weak, and the market was in a weak state. - **Strategy**: Wait and see [42][43]. Urea - **Market**: Urea prices rose. Supply decreased, demand was mainly from exports, and inventory was high. - **Strategy**: A long - position at low prices is recommended [44]. Styrene - **Market**: Styrene prices declined, and the basis strengthened. Supply was increasing, demand was improving seasonally, and inventory was high. - **Outlook**: Prices may rebound after inventory decreases [45]. PVC - **Market**: PVC prices declined. Supply was strong, demand was weak, and exports were expected to decline. - **Strategy**: A short - position is recommended [47]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market**: EG prices declined. Supply was increasing, demand was recovering from the off - season, and inventory was expected to increase in the medium - term. - **Outlook**: Prices may decline in the medium - term [48][49]. PTA - **Market**: PTA prices declined. Supply was undergoing de - stocking, demand was improving, and processing fees were affected. - **Outlook**: A long - position at low prices following PX is recommended [50]. Para - Xylene - **Market**: PX prices declined. Supply was high, downstream PTA had many unexpected maintenance, and inventory was expected to be low. - **Outlook**: A long - position at low prices following crude oil is recommended [51]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market**: PE prices declined. Cost support exists, supply is limited, and demand is expected to increase seasonally. - **Outlook**: Prices may oscillate upwards [52]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market**: PP prices declined. Supply pressure is high, demand is rebounding seasonally, and inventory pressure is high. - **Strategy**: A long - position on the LL - PP2601 contract at low prices is recommended [53]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market**: Pig prices showed mixed trends. Supply may be weak in September, but demand and other factors may support prices. - **Strategy**: Wait and see, pay attention to low - level rebounds, and consider a far - month reverse spread [55]. Eggs - **Market**: Egg prices were mostly stable. Supply was high, demand was average, and market sentiment was pessimistic. - **Strategy**: A short - position on the near - month contract on rebounds and a reverse spread are recommended [56]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market**: US soybeans declined, and domestic soybean meal rebounded slightly. Inventory is high, and de - stocking depends on the inflection point of processing volume and arrivals. - **Strategy**: A long - position at low prices within the cost range is recommended [57][58]. Oils and Fats - **Market**: Three major domestic oils rebounded. Indian palm oil imports were large, and there are multiple factors supporting prices. - **Strategy**: Palm oil may rise in Q4 due to the B50 policy. An oscillating and strengthening view is taken before inventory accumulates and demand feedback is negative [59][60]. Sugar - **Market**: Sugar prices oscillated. The global sugar gap is expected to narrow, and domestic supply may increase. - **Strategy**: A bearish view is maintained. The downward space depends on the performance of the external market [61][62]. Cotton - **Market**: Cotton prices oscillated. Global cotton production and inventory are expected to decline, and domestic inventory is low. - **Outlook**: Prices may oscillate at a high level in the short - term [63].

Group 1 - As of 20:30, London nickel increased by 1.44% [1] - London copper decreased by 0.49% [1] - London lead fell by 0.20% [1] - London zinc dropped by 0.68% [1] - London aluminum declined by 0.84% [1]

Group 1 - As of August 1, 2025, the main contract for Shanghai lead futures closed at 16,735 CNY/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.03% [1] - The opening price for the week was 16,960 CNY/ton, reaching a high of 17,085 CNY/ton and a low of 16,615 CNY/ton, with an increase in open interest by 3,011 contracts compared to the previous week [1] - The London Metal Exchange reported lead registered warrants at 204,150 tons and canceled warrants at 72,350 tons, with total lead inventory increasing by 125 tons to 276,500 tons [2] Group 2 - A lead recycling plant in Northwest China plans to suspend production due to water resource scarcity, market downturn, and raw material shortages, which is expected to reduce national lead output by 5,000 to 10,000 tons in August [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported lead warehouse receipts at 62,360 tons, an increase of 426 tons from the previous trading day [3] - Jinrui Futures noted that domestic lead prices are following a general decline in non-ferrous metals, with limited recovery in recycled lead production and an expectation of increased consumption as the seasonal peak approaches [4] - Ruida Futures observed that despite price increases, downstream demand remains cautious, with slow inventory depletion in the lead-acid battery sector, indicating a potential for short-term price fluctuations [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that domestic aluminum inventory has slightly increased, leading to a relatively stable aluminum price despite a decrease in short positions as the delivery month approaches [1] - As of the latest data, domestic aluminum ingot inventory reached 468,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons compared to the previous week, while aluminum rod inventory also rose by 5,000 tons to 148,000 tons [1] - The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20,590 yuan/ton, with a trading range expected between 20,300 and 20,800 yuan/ton in the short term [1] Group 2 - The Shanghai lead index rose by 0.46% to 17,204 yuan/ton, with total open interest at 82,400 contracts [1] - LME lead inventory stands at 273,400 tons, with a cancellation stock of 70,700 tons, indicating a strong market for lead despite weak domestic consumption [1] - The overall supply of primary lead remains high while recycled lead supply is tight, leading to a recovery in lead-acid battery prices and improved purchasing from downstream sectors [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant drop in lead prices, which fell over 1% in a single day, raising questions about the potential for further declines given the high inventory levels of 295,000 tons [1] Group 2 - The article discusses the pressure on lead prices due to the substantial inventory, suggesting that the market may face challenges in absorbing this excess supply [1] - It raises concerns about the future trajectory of copper prices, indicating that the current market conditions may influence copper's performance moving forward [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that lead prices have decreased by 2%, reaching $1965.5 per ton [1]

Core Viewpoint - The lead futures market is experiencing a slight decline, with the main contract down 0.62% and trading at 16,895.00 yuan, indicating a weak market sentiment [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Jinrui Futures suggests that the lead price will fluctuate within the range of 16,700 to 17,200 yuan, supported by a decrease in overseas lead inventory and a warming macroeconomic environment [2]. - New Lake Futures emphasizes a range-bound trading strategy due to stable production from primary lead smelters and a decline in imported lead ore treatment charges [3]. - Copper Crown Jinyuan Futures notes that the lead price is expected to maintain a high-level consolidation in the short term, influenced by delivery impacts and inventory pressures [4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side shows stable production from primary lead smelters, while the recycling sector faces challenges with rising losses and low operating rates due to reduced battery scrap inventory [3]. - Demand for lead-acid batteries has increased post-holiday but remains below pre-holiday levels, contributing to downward pressure on orders during the off-season [3]. - Overall, the combination of seasonal demand weakness and reduced export activity creates significant upward pressure on lead prices, despite strong long-term cost support [3][4].