在众多平台中，智昇研究凭借扎实的专业实力和良好的用户口碑，成为了脱颖而出的佼佼者。这种优势并非凭空而来，从外界认可中便能清晰印证：像《中 国财经报》《证券日报》等权威财经媒体，曾多次专题报道其对黄金市场的深度分析成果与实战教学案例；国内多家金融投资咨询机构也将其列为 "黄金投 资学习优选平台"，推荐给初入市场的投资者。其核心优势首先体现在 "专业性" 上 —— 平台组建了一支经验丰富的市场分析师团队，不搞 "碎片化解读"， 而是以独创的 "框架式推演" 为核心教学方法，帮投资者搭建系统的行情判断逻辑。比如针对 "非农数据" 这类影响黄金走势的关键节点，平台还会推出 "决 战非农" 等实战专题，从数据预判、行情推演到交易策略，手把手带投资者应对复杂行情，让不同基础的投资者都能逐步提升分析能力。 其次，智昇研究的 "时效性与针对性" 也广受认可。黄金市场波动快，平台会实时跟进市场动态，第一时间解读政策、数据对金价的影响，避免投资者错过 关键信息；同时，它还会根据投资者的层次差异提供差异化内容 —— 新手能学到基础的黄金投资知识和风险控制方法，资深投资者则能获取深度的趋势研 判和进阶交易策略，真正做到 "因材施教" ...

近日，国际金价出现连续下跌，现货黄金单周跌幅超3%。自8月22日后首次收出周阴线，终结周线9连 阳。 不过随着金价下跌，第一批"受害者"已出现，"把生活费亏没了""一天跌光一月收益""没钱再补仓 了""买2000亏50跑了"…… 专家建议：当前黄金投机氛围浓厚，年轻人多通过积存金、黄金ETF等渠道投资，操作便捷但易引发频 繁盯盘与情绪化交易。普通投资者尤其是缺乏经验的投资者，面对全球资本与专业机构处于劣势，不宜 盲目入场。 截至27日发稿，伦敦金日内跌幅超1%，跌破4100美元。 国内金饰价格跟跌，老庙黄金足金饰品标价1220元/克，较前一日1228元/克的价格下跌8元/克。 | | (饰品、工艺品类) | 1223 元/克 | | --- | --- | --- | | 零售金价 | 投资實金类 | 1078 元/克 | | | 翼金增值服务金价 金条、金章不作增值服务 | 1073 元/克 | | 黄金增值服务 | | | | | 黄金回收服务金价 | 903 元/克 | | 复金回收服务 | | | 来源：每日经济新闻 | 老庙 | | --- | | 今日金价 | | 价格(人民币/克) 名称 | | ...

短期内黄金已不再是明智之选，目前的高波动性严重侵蚀了其风险收益比。配置型资金应等待3800-3900美元/盎司区域逢低布局，交易型资金则应待波动率回落至 低位后再入场。中长期来看黄金仍具配置价值，量化模型显示2026年金价中枢在4814美元/盎司。 黄金在经历了近两个月的猛烈上涨后，近期突然转入暴跌，波动率飙升。在一片混乱中，投资者该何去何从？ 申万宏源研究在10月24日发布的最新报告中指出，短期内，黄金已不再是明智之选。随着"做多黄金"根据美银调查成为全球最拥挤的交易，高杠杆的黄 金ETF头寸开始爆裂，导致价格从历史高位快速回落。目前的高波动性严重侵蚀了其风险收益比。 历史经验也表明，每一轮黄金主升浪的起点，几乎都伴随着波动率回归至启动前的低位。申万宏源表示，配置型资金应等待3800-3900美元/盎司区域逢 低布局，交易型资金则应待波动率回落至低位后再入场。 中长期来看，量化模型显示2026年金价中枢在4814美元/盎司，黄金仍具配置价值。 波动率回落是新行情启动前提，3800-3900美元是底部区域 对于不同类型的投资者，报告给出了分化的建议。对于追求短期收益的交易型资金，最好的策略是保持观望，等待波动 ...

Gold (GC=F) futures opened at $4,038.20 per ounce on Friday, up 0.9% from Thursday’s close of $4,001.30. The price of gold eclipsed $4,000 on Thursday — after falling below that level on Monday — and has remained above $4,000 since. According to a new report from the World Gold Council, central bank gold buying rose 28% in the third quarter compared to the prior period. This activity drove higher gold prices through the end of September. Investors contributed to the price run-up with purchases of ETFs a ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive," indicating an expectation that the industry index will outperform the market index by more than 5% over the next six months [10]. Core Insights - Recent fluctuations in international gold prices have been significant, with a notable drop of 6.3% on October 21, marking the largest single-day decline since April 2013, and prices fluctuating between $3950 and $4150 from October 22 to 27 [1][2]. - The primary drivers of recent volatility include a reduction in geopolitical risks, a reversal in market sentiment, and profit-taking after a cumulative increase of over 65% in gold prices since 2025 [2]. - The report highlights that despite short-term volatility, the long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact, with a recommendation to view price corrections below $4000 as potential long-term investment opportunities [3]. Summary by Sections Recent Price Movements - Gold prices experienced a sharp decline, with related assets also suffering losses, including a 7.60% drop in gold stock ETFs [1]. - Domestic gold jewelry prices were adjusted downwards by over 6% [1]. Market Drivers - Geopolitical risk reduction and a shift in market sentiment have led to decreased demand for gold as a safe haven [2]. - The report notes a liquidity squeeze effect in the A-share market, causing systemic sell-offs and impacting gold stocks negatively [2]. - The Federal Reserve's policy expectations have shifted, with a decrease in the probability of interest rate cuts, which has further pressured gold prices [2]. Upcoming Catalysts - Key upcoming data releases, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and U.S. non-farm payroll data, are expected to influence gold prices significantly [3]. - A dovish signal from the Fed could boost gold prices, while a hawkish stance may lead to further declines [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining a gold asset allocation of 10%-15% in investment portfolios to hedge against dollar credit risks [8]. - It recommends focusing on companies with strong resource reserves, cost control, and expansion potential, such as Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold [8].

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have experienced a continuous decline, with spot gold dropping over 3% in a week, marking the first weekly loss since August 22, ending a nine-week streak of gains [1]. Price Movements - As of October 27, at 15:30, London gold fell by 1.04%, breaking below $4,100, while COMEX gold also saw a decline of over 1% [1]. - The current price of London gold is reported at $4,068.85, with a daily high of $4,109.08 and a low of $4,053.505 [2]. - COMEX gold opened at $4,085.3, with a daily high of $4,137.8 and a low of $4,065.8, reflecting a decrease of 1.27% [3]. Domestic Gold Prices - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also decreased, with Lao Miao gold's 24K jewelry priced at 1,220 RMB per gram, down from 1,228 RMB per gram the previous day [4]. - Chow Tai Fook's 24K jewelry is now priced at 1,223 RMB per gram, a drop of 9 RMB from 1,232 RMB on October 25 [4]. Market Analysis - After a sustained increase in gold prices since September, profit-taking by long positions has led to recent declines. The market is currently sensitive to fluctuations in the US dollar index and Federal Reserve monetary policy [6]. - Analysts suggest that while the core factors supporting long-term gold price increases remain unchanged, the current high level of market participation may lead to increased volatility [6]. Investment Considerations - Investors are advised to assess their risk tolerance and investment horizon before entering the market. For those with a longer investment horizon, physical gold assets may be considered [8]. - Long-term factors such as high US debt and a global trend towards de-dollarization are expected to support gold prices [8]. - It is recommended that investors limit their allocation to gold-related assets to 5% to 15% of their total investment portfolio to achieve diversification and risk mitigation [8].

Core Viewpoint - Short-term investment in gold is no longer considered wise due to high volatility and crowded trades, while medium to long-term outlook remains positive with projected price increases [1][2][18]. Short-term vs Long-term Strategies - For short-term trading funds, the best strategy is to remain on the sidelines and wait for a significant drop in volatility before entering the market, as trading in a high-volatility environment yields low returns [4][7]. - For long-term investment funds, the current strategy should be to wait for buying opportunities in the 3800-3900 USD/oz range, which is identified as a key support level for 2025 [5][13]. Volatility and Market Trends - Historical analysis indicates that a return to low volatility is a prerequisite for the initiation of new market trends, whether upward or downward [6][8]. - The current high volatility environment makes it difficult for new trends to form, necessitating patience from investors [7][8]. Price Projections - The quantitative model from Shenwan Hongyuan predicts that the gold price will stabilize at 4814 USD/oz by 2026, supported by factors such as rising global fiscal deficits and continued central bank purchases [14][15]. - Morgan Stanley expresses a contrasting view, favoring U.S. Treasury bonds over gold, citing that gold has underperformed U.S. Treasuries over the past 50 years [2]. Market Sentiment and Buying Trends - Despite recent price declines, major financial institutions like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs maintain a bullish outlook on gold, with Goldman Sachs suggesting a target price of 4900 USD/oz, indicating potential upward risks [18][20]. - Reports from gold dealers indicate a surge in retail buying, as investors view the price drop as an opportunity to purchase gold at lower prices [21][22][23]. Conclusion - The overall sentiment in the gold market remains cautiously optimistic for the long term, with significant buying interest from both institutional and retail investors, despite short-term volatility challenges [19][24].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a paradox in the gold market where gold prices have surged to record highs, yet gold bar sales have plummeted, indicating a shift in consumer behavior and investment strategies [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices have reached a new high of $4,150 per ounce, reflecting a 58% increase year-to-date, while domestic gold jewelry prices have risen to 1,215 yuan per gram, up 400 yuan since the beginning of the year [1][3]. - Despite the high prices, gold bar sales have drastically declined, with only 27 transactions recorded in the first 27 days of October, resulting in sales of just over 250 million yuan, a significant drop compared to the average monthly sales earlier in the year [3][5]. Group 2: Factors Behind Declining Sales - The high and volatile gold prices have deterred investors, with bank gold bars priced at 992 yuan per gram, leading to a nearly 40,000 yuan increase for a 100-gram purchase compared to the start of the year [5][6]. - Economic factors such as a 0.7% decline in national retail sales and a high unemployment rate of 7.1% have led consumers to tighten their spending [6][7]. - Increased investment options, including lower bank note rates and the rise of stable investment products like bond funds, have diverted funds away from gold [7][9]. Group 3: Market Segmentation and Consumer Behavior - The decline in gold bar sales has resulted in a bifurcation in the market, with traditional gold retailers facing pressure, exemplified by the closure of 297 stores by Lao Feng Xiang and a 63% drop in net profit for Zhou Da Sheng [9][11]. - Conversely, high-end brands are thriving, with Lao Pu Gold adopting a luxury strategy and achieving annual sales of 240 million yuan per store [9][11]. - Consumers are shifting towards alternatives, such as renting jewelry for weddings and purchasing cheaper gold bars from wholesale markets, indicating a change in investment logic [9][11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite the current sales slump, institutions remain bullish on gold, with forecasts from JPMorgan predicting prices could reach $5,055 per ounce by the end of 2026, and Goldman Sachs estimating $4,900 [11][15]. - The ongoing demand from global central banks, including a net purchase of 894 tons of gold in the first three quarters of 2025, and China's continuous accumulation of gold for 11 months, suggests a sustained long-term interest in gold as a hedge against inflation [15].

Core Insights - Gold has seen a significant increase of 55% this year and nearly 25% since late August, outperforming US and global stocks [1] - Despite reaching an all-time high of $4,359.40 on October 20, gold has since dropped by 4.5% within a week [2] - The article emphasizes that gold is often perceived as a safe haven during economic uncertainty, but this notion is challenged [5][6] Market Performance - Gold's recent surge is attributed to trade war concerns, inflation fears, and geopolitical instability [5][6] - Long-term performance shows that gold has annualized gains of 7.1% since 1974, which is only slightly above the 30-year US government bonds [8] - In contrast, US stocks have annualized returns of 11.5% and world stocks at 9.6% over the same period, highlighting a significant performance gap [9] Myths and Misconceptions - The article argues that gold does not serve as an effective hedge against tariffs, inflation, or market downturns, citing historical performance data [7][13] - The volatility of gold is noted, with its returns being significantly less stable compared to stocks, leading to unpredictable boom-bust cycles [15][16] - Emotional and cultural perceptions of gold as a symbol of wealth contribute to its allure, but these beliefs are described as outdated and misleading [17]

Core Viewpoint - Recent volatility in gold prices has led to a significant downturn after a two-month surge, prompting investors to reconsider their strategies [1][3] Short-term Outlook - Gold is currently not a wise investment choice due to high leverage in gold ETFs and a crowded "long gold" trade, leading to rapid price declines from historical highs [1][3] - Investors are advised to wait for gold prices to reach the $3,800-$3,900 per ounce range for potential buying opportunities [1][9] Long-term Outlook - A quantitative model indicates that the gold price center is projected to be $4,814 per ounce by 2026, suggesting that gold still holds long-term investment value [2][10] - The model is based on macroeconomic indicators, with a neutral assumption placing the price center at $3,886 per ounce in the second half of 2025, reinforcing the $3,800-$3,900 range as a significant support level [9][10] Investment Strategy - For short-term trading funds, the best strategy is to remain on the sidelines until volatility decreases significantly, as trading in high-volatility environments yields lower profit margins [3][4] - Long-term investors should look for opportunities to accumulate positions in the $3,800-$3,900 per ounce range, which is identified as a fundamental support level [3][9] Market Dynamics - Historical analysis shows that a return to low volatility is a prerequisite for the initiation of new upward or downward trends in gold prices [4][10] - The ongoing trend of central banks increasing gold reserves is expected to continue, particularly in light of rising debt risks in developed markets [10]