刚刚登陆纽交所的加密货币交易所Bullish，在交出一份扭亏为盈的财报同时，获批了一张关键的美国监 管牌照为它打开了全球最大市场的大门，其打造"加密货币领域MSCI"的雄心也浮出水面。 9月17日，由前纽交所总裁Tom Farley领导的加密货币交易所Bullish，交出了作为上市公司的首份成绩 单。截至6月30日的第二季度，公司实现净利润1.083亿美元，与去年同期1.164亿美元的净亏损形成鲜明 对比。这标志着公司在上市后出现的一个重要转折。 尽管实现了净利润层面的大幅逆转，但财报细节也揭示了复杂的一面。若剔除一次性项目，公司该季度 的调整后亏损为600万美元，而去年同期为调整后利润480万美元。调整后营收为5700万美元，同比去年 的6070万美元有所下滑。这可能引发市场对其核心业务持续增长能力的关注。 尽管调整后数据承压，但Bullish管理层仍对未来表达了乐观预期。公司首席执行官Tom Farley表示，第 二季度的工作正为当前第三季度带来强劲动力。Bullish预计，第三季度调整后收益将在1200万美元至 1700万美元之间，调整后收入将在6900万美元至7600万美元之间，预示着增长有望恢复。 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00% to 4.25% is expected to support the cryptocurrency ecosystem, particularly Bitcoin [2][4] - Analysts believe that Bitcoin prices will continue to rise for the remainder of the year, driven by factors such as increased corporate Bitcoin reserves and ongoing demand for exchange-traded funds (ETFs) [3][4] - The recent decline in Bitcoin's price to approximately $116,600 reflects a muted market reaction to the Fed's announcement, with a 2% increase in Bitcoin over the past week prior to the announcement [3] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the challenges posed by a weakening job market and rising inflation risks, which may lead to further rate cuts [2] - The inflow of funds into Bitcoin ETFs reached its highest level since July, indicating growing investor interest in Bitcoin as a hedge against currency devaluation [3][4] - The CEO of FRNT Financial suggests that Wall Street is entering an unprecedented period of currency devaluation, which could drive more investors towards Bitcoin to protect their purchasing power [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates and Chairman Powell's cautious remarks have not significantly impacted Bitcoin's price, but analysts expect Bitcoin to continue rising for the remainder of the year due to potential further rate cuts and other supportive factors in the cryptocurrency ecosystem [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the interbank overnight lending rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of the year after five meetings without changes [2]. - Powell emphasized the challenges posed by rising inflation risks and declining employment, indicating a shift in the balance of risks [2]. - The decision was influenced by significant pressure from President Donald Trump regarding monetary policy [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, Bitcoin's trading price was approximately $117,000, remaining stable as investors had already priced in the rate cut [3]. - Bitcoin's price slightly declined to $116,600 after the announcement, while major stock indices like the Nasdaq and S&P 500 experienced declines [3]. - Over the past week, Bitcoin saw a 2% increase, and the inflow into Bitcoin ETFs reached its highest level since July [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook for Bitcoin - Analysts believe that factors such as increased corporate Bitcoin reserves and sustained demand for ETFs could drive Bitcoin prices higher in the coming weeks [3]. - The CEO of FRNT Financial noted that Wall Street is entering an unprecedented period of currency devaluation, which could lead investors to allocate more funds into Bitcoin as a hedge against purchasing power erosion [4].

Core Insights - Bullish reported better-than-expected Q2 earnings and revenue, with EPS at $0.93 compared to a loss of $1.03 a year ago, exceeding the market expectation of -$0.05 [1] - The company’s revenue for Q2 was $57 million, slightly below last year's $60.7 million but above the market forecast of $55.8 million [1] - Digital asset sales reached $58.6 billion, significantly up from $49.6 billion in Q2 2024, with trading volume soaring to $179.6 billion from $133 billion year-over-year [1] Financial Performance - Adjusted operating expenses for the quarter were $48.9 million, up from $46 million a year ago [1] - Adjusted EBITDA was $8.1 million, down from $14.7 million in the same quarter last year [1] - The company expects Q3 2025 adjusted revenue to be between $69 million and $76 million, significantly higher than the analyst consensus of $57.1 million [2] Market Position and Growth - Bullish's digital asset index provider, CoinDesk Indices, reported an AUM of $41 billion, increasing by over $9 billion from Q1 [2] - The company recently obtained a BitLicense from the New York State Department of Financial Services, facilitating its expansion in the U.S. market [3] - Cathie Wood's ARK Invest has increased its stake in Bullish, purchasing over 160,000 shares valued at approximately $8.3 million, continuing to hold a total of over $129 million in Bullish stock across multiple ARK funds [3]

Core Viewpoint - Gemini Space Station's stock price has declined significantly, falling below its IPO price shortly after its market debut, indicating potential challenges in the current market environment [1] Company Summary - Gemini Space Station (GEMI.US) saw its stock price drop to $24.53, a 12.8% decrease in a single day, with a current market capitalization of $2.9 billion [1] - The company was founded in 2014 by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss and manages assets exceeding $21 billion, offering services such as cryptocurrency exchange, stablecoins, staking, digital asset custody, and crypto rewards credit cards [1] - In 2021, Gemini achieved a valuation of $7.1 billion through financing [1] Industry Summary - The stock price decline of Gemini coincides with a broader downturn in the market, as evidenced by a 2.2% drop in Coinbase (COIN.US) and nearly a 1% decrease in Bitcoin prices [1] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices also experienced declines, reflecting a challenging environment for tech stocks [1] - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, the first of the year, amid signs of a weakening job market, which may influence market conditions further [1]

中金研究 美联储9月降息25个基点，符合市场预期。美联储较好回应了市场的关切，但也保持了克制。此前期待的降息50个基点并未出现，决策者对于下一步降 息存在较大分歧。往前看，由于就业数据过于疲软，我们预计联储或将于10月再次降息，但在这之后，通胀升温将使降息门槛越来越高，货币宽松空 间也将受限。当前美国经济的症结并非需求不足，而是成本上升。过度的货币宽松非但无法解决就业问题，反而可能加剧通胀，使经济陷入"类滞 胀"困境。 点击小程序查看报告原文 本次会议前，市场对于美联储降息有很高期待，由于劳动力市场疲软，投资者普遍认为美联储现在必须出手，以防止就业数据进一步下滑。 我们认为美联储较好回应了市场的关切，但也保持了克制。 首先，从政策立场看，美联储如期降息，并将就业放缓作为降息的理由。货币政策声明称， 决策者认为"就业方面的下行风险有所上升"，尽管他们也认为"通胀水平有所回升，且依然偏高"[1]。换句话说，就业市场放缓的担忧压倒了对通胀的顾 虑，成为政策调整的直接推动力。 然而，市场此前期待的降息50个基点并未出现。 从投票结果来看[2]，本周二刚刚就任理事的米兰投下了反对票，因其主张应降息50个基点，这符合市场 ...

Group 1: Financial Performance - Bullish reported earnings per share (EPS) of $0.93 in Q2, significantly exceeding the average analyst estimate of $0.03 [1] - The company achieved adjusted revenue of $57 million in Q2, slightly below the estimate of $60.7 million [1] - Bullish expects adjusted Ebitda for Q3 to be between $25 million and $28 million, a substantial increase from $8.1 million in Q2 [3] Group 2: Trading Volume and Market Activity - The trading volume for Bullish surged to $179.6 billion in Q2, up from $133.0 billion in the same quarter last year [2] - For the upcoming quarter, Bullish anticipates trading volume to range between $133.0 billion and $142.0 billion [2] Group 3: Stock Performance and Regulatory Approval - Bullish's stock price increased by 44% from its IPO price of $37, currently trading at $53.54 [3] - The firm secured a BitLicense from the New York State Department of Financial Services, a crucial regulatory approval for expansion in the U.S., leading to a 4.5% increase in post-market trading [4] Group 4: Market Trends - Crypto prices experienced significant growth from April to June, with Bitcoin rising by 30%, making it the best-performing major asset globally [5] - The CoinDesk20 Index, which tracks the broader crypto market, increased by 23% during the same period [5]

Core Insights - Defiance has submitted an application to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to launch two exchange-traded funds (ETFs) based on "basis trading" strategies, one linked to Bitcoin and the other to Ethereum [1] Group 1: ETF Details - The proposed ETFs will allow investors to engage in a strategy that capitalizes on the price differences between the spot market and futures contracts, aiming for stable returns while minimizing exposure to significant price volatility [1] - The trading codes for the ETFs are set to be "NBIT" for the Bitcoin-related fund and "DETH" for the Ethereum-related fund [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The Bitcoin ETF will purchase shares of Bitcoin spot funds, such as BlackRock's IBIT, and short Bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) [1] - Expected returns from the Bitcoin ETF will derive from the price differences between the two markets, influenced by factors such as volatility and demand dynamics [1]

Core Viewpoint - Financial markets are expected to enter a "ballistic phase" following the Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cut, despite potential short-term volatility and pullbacks [1][2]. Market Dynamics - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to implement its first rate cut of the current cycle to alleviate pressure on consumers and businesses [1]. - This pivot may lead to increased liquidity, potentially driving equity markets higher, although initial reactions may not reflect the longer-term trend [2]. Economic Disconnection - There is a growing disconnect between financial markets and the real economy, with stock indices, particularly the S&P 500, rising due to trends like artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency enthusiasm [3]. - Despite market optimism, the labor market is showing signs of strain, including declining job openings, rising unemployment, and increasing consumer stress due to the cost of living [3][4]. Analyst Perspectives - Analysts at large financial institutions may be misinterpreting the current situation by focusing on asset prices and monetary policy rather than the struggles of ordinary households [4]. - A recession is viewed as inevitable, despite the short-term market exuberance that may follow the Fed's rate cut, highlighting the unsustainable nature of the optimism on Wall Street compared to the challenges faced by Main Street [4][5].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the cryptocurrency trading platform Bullish has gained over 4% in early trading after receiving the New York BitLicense, which will allow the company to expand into the U.S. market [1]