具体来看，产需两端有所改善。11月份，生产指数和新订单指数分别为50.0%和49.2%，比上月上升0.3 个和0.4个百分点，其中生产指数升至临界点，制造业产需两端均有改善。 "海外节日购物季备货需求带动出口趋稳，推动市场需求整体回暖。需求端恢复对企业的生产意愿有所 提振，制造业生产活动平稳运行。"中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬表示。 小型企业PMI明显回升。11月份，大型企业PMI为49.3%，比上月下降0.6个百分点，景气水平回落；中 型企业PMI为48.9%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，景气度有所改善；小型企业PMI为49.1%，比上月上升 2.0个百分点，为近6个月高点，景气水平显著回升。 高技术制造业保持扩张。11月份，高技术制造业PMI为50.1%，连续10个月位于临界点以上，相关行业 继续保持增长。装备制造业和消费品行业PMI分别为49.8%和49.4%，比上月下降0.4个和0.7个百分点。 高耗能行业PMI为48.4%，比上月上升1.1个百分点，景气水平低位回升。 市场预期稳中有升。霍丽慧表示，11月份，生产经营活动预期指数为53.1%，比上月上升0.3个百分点， （下转A02版） （上接A01版 ...

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for November is reported at 49.2%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from October, indicating improved market confidence [1] - The production index and new orders index are at 50.0% and 49.2%, respectively, both showing improvements of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points from October, with the production index reaching the critical point [1] - The new export orders index rose to 47.6%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points from October, reflecting a stabilization in manufacturing exports due to improved external trade conditions [1][2] Group 2: Enterprise Size and Industry Performance - Large enterprises' PMI decreased to 49.3%, down 0.6 percentage points from October, indicating a decline in economic sentiment, while medium-sized enterprises' PMI increased to 48.9%, up 0.2 percentage points [2] - Small enterprises' PMI rose significantly to 49.1%, an increase of 2.0 percentage points, marking the highest level in six months [2] - High-tech manufacturing PMI remains above the critical point at 50.1%, while equipment manufacturing and consumer goods industries saw declines in their PMIs to 49.8% and 49.4%, respectively [2] Group 3: Future Expectations and Economic Outlook - The production and business activity expectation index is at 53.1%, up 0.3 percentage points from October, indicating increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises regarding market developments [2] - December is anticipated to be a crucial month for policy implementation and capital investment, with expectations of stable recovery in manufacturing market demand driven by the "14th Five-Year Plan" and improved foreign trade conditions [3] - Non-manufacturing PMI for November is at 49.5%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from October, reflecting a slowdown in service-related activities, although positive factors such as financial activities and construction recovery are noted [4]

Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of enhancing consumption as a sustainable driver of economic growth, highlighting the role of banks in facilitating this through targeted financial support [1][2][3] Group 1: Financial Empowerment for Consumption - Banks are encouraged to focus on "promoting employment, increasing income, expanding supply, and optimizing scenarios" to convert financial resources into consumption growth momentum [1] - The plan suggests extending financial support to the entire employment and entrepreneurship chain, particularly targeting small and micro enterprises and individual businesses to alleviate financing difficulties [1][2] - Initiatives such as deepening first-loan outreach and innovating "credit granting + policy interest subsidies" models are proposed to enhance access to financing [1] Group 2: Supply-Side Enhancement - The plan calls for banks to shift from "demand-side stimulation" to "supply-side empowerment," promoting quality upgrades in consumption supply through financial support [2] - In the consumer goods sector, banks should focus on upgrading products like new energy vehicles and smart home appliances by optimizing loan terms and integrating "old-for-new" policies [2] - In service consumption, banks are advised to support sectors like tourism, elderly care, and childcare through project loans and supply chain financing to enhance service facilities and product offerings [2] Group 3: Innovative Financial Services - The plan highlights the need for banks to innovate financial services by creating new consumption scenarios that integrate financial services into daily life [2] - Examples include launching co-branded credit cards in the tourism sector and providing comprehensive support for small businesses to enhance their online and offline sales channels [2] Group 4: Institutional Mechanisms for Consumption Promotion - The plan emphasizes the importance of institutional innovation to overcome bottlenecks in consumer finance development, advocating for a more inclusive and secure financial environment [3] - Banks should actively connect with fiscal policies like interest subsidies and consumption vouchers to amplify policy effects and ensure benefits reach consumers and businesses [3] - Utilizing technologies like big data and AI for risk management is recommended to expand credit coverage while mitigating financial risks [3]

Group 1: PMI Overview - In November, the manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly to 49.2%, remaining below the expansion threshold and lower than Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 49.4%[2] - The new orders index and production index hit their lowest levels since 2013, excluding 2022, indicating insufficient rebound strength[2] - The manufacturing PMI has been below the expansion threshold for eight consecutive months, marking the longest period of contraction historically[7] Group 2: Demand and Production Insights - The rebound in manufacturing PMI was primarily driven by a recovery in export orders, with the new orders index contributing 60% and the production index contributing 37.5% to the overall PMI increase[7] - The new orders index rose to 49.2%, with new export orders increasing by 1.7 percentage points to 47.6%[7] - Despite improvements in demand, the production index only slightly increased to 50.0%, indicating a lack of robust production growth[7] Group 3: Price Trends - The main raw material purchase price index rose to 53.6%, reaching a five-year high for the same period, while the factory price index increased to 48.2%[7] - The rise in raw material prices suggests that the "anti-involution" policy effects may be becoming evident, potentially leading to a rise in PPI month-on-month[7] Group 4: Policy Outlook - The "14th Five-Year Plan" draft emphasizes increasing household consumption rates and public service spending, indicating that consumption may become a key driver of economic growth next year[2] - The necessity for incremental policy measures is expected to be discussed in the upcoming December Politburo and economic work meetings[2]

关键时刻政策密集出手，降息、财政扩张、楼市消费新政齐上阵，这波组合拳能否稳住5%增长目标？ 背后的逻辑和看点值得细细说道。 2025年的经济走势真是让人猜不透，一边是出口逆势狂飙给市场送惊喜，一边是房地产和消费拖后腿让 人捏把汗。 十五五"开局这盘棋，到底能不能下赢？关键还得看政策这波神操作。 新能源车出口大增 哈喽大家好，今天小无带大家聊聊"十五五"开局的经济大棋局。一边是出口顶着关税压力逆势狂飙，成 为稳增长的硬核支撑；一边是房地产、消费深陷调整泥潭，拖累经济步伐。 先说说最让人意外的出口表现，简直是逆袭中的战斗机！谁能想到，美国对华关税4月飙到100%以上， 5月才回落至30%。 这么折腾下来，中国全年出口增速居然有望冲到8%，而且各行各业都跟着发力。这可不是靠运气，也 不是短期抢出口能撑起来的，而是中国制造业实打实的硬实力。 现在咱们的出口早就不是单一产品厉害，而是形成了技术、产业链、服务一条龙的综合优势。 冶金、化工这些老产业通过升级改造，既保住了质量又没乱涨价，传统市场守得牢，新兴市场也打得 开。 | 举办时间 | 国外劳商 | 会议名称 | 王霞 | 地点 | | --- | --- | --- ...

来源：中国经济新闻网 中国经济新闻网讯（记者 张娜）11月29日，由中国经济时报社主办的经济前瞻论坛2025年会在北京召开。国务院发展研究中心副主任、党组成员张顺喜 出席论坛开幕式并致辞。第十四届全国政协委员、中国发展研究基金会理事长、国务院发展研究中心原副主任张军扩发表主旨演讲。 中国社会福利与养老协会会长、复旦大学老龄研究院副院长、教授吴玉韶，中国经济体制改革研究会副会长李晓超，摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自 强，国务院发展研究中心产业经济研究部部长田杰棠，国家数据发展研究院院长胡坚波，国家应对气候变化战略研究和国际合作中心首席科学家徐华清， 农业农村部农村经济研究中心副主任、党组成员李二超分别发表主题演讲。 会议指出，党的二十届四中全会把推动高质量发展确定为"十五五"时期经济社会发展的主题，既与"十四五"规划一脉相承，又在准确把握未来5年发展大 势的基础上部署了战略任务，对于我们继续紧紧抓住高质量发展这个首要任务、全面推进中国式现代化具有重大指导作用。 会议认为，中国正从世界经济发展格局中的追随者转变为数字化和绿色化浪潮的引领者。"十五五"时期，在教育科技人才一体化发展的支撑下，通过培育 新兴产业、未来 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the center of copper prices is likely to continue rising. However, with the TC remaining at -$40 per ton, mine - end disturbances may not be able to drive significant price increases. The demand side may have positive momentum under the "15th Five - Year Plan", and macro - factors and the strong gold price may make copper price fluctuations more difficult to predict. The annual price is expected to fluctuate between 80,000 yuan/ton and 100,000 yuan/ton [9]. - The supply - demand gap of copper is expected to gradually widen from 2025 - 2026, start to narrow in 2027, and turn into a surplus in 2028, at which time processing fees are expected to recover. Short - term copper prices are supported by the supply - demand gap, while in the medium - to - long term, they will depend more on the realization of terminal demand [10]. - In 2026, the copper terminal demand will show a multi - polar driven pattern with relatively stable power demand and potential surprises from the electronics sector. But in 2026 specifically, copper demand may only show a slight increase due to a short - term decline in the photovoltaic sector and relatively weak real estate demand [15]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Strategy Summary - In 2025, copper prices first rose and then fell. At the beginning of the year, tight mineral supply, low processing fees, expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut, and the strong gold price pushed copper prices up. After that, due to the uncertainty of US tariff policies, copper prices dropped significantly around the Tomb - sweeping Festival. In the second half of the year, with loose macro - expectations, good demand in the AI and new energy fields, and supply disturbances such as the shutdown of Grasberg, the center of copper prices moved up again, and it entered a shock range at the end of the year [8]. 3.2 Supply - side Overview 3.2.1 Annual Mine - end Supply Disturbances and No Improvement in Mid - stream Smelting Profit Margins - In 2025, the TC price of imported copper concentrates continued to decline, reaching -$42.15 per ton by mid - November. Smelter profits mainly came from by - products such as sulfuric acid, gold, and silver. The TC price set by Antofagasta and Chinese smelters in the middle of the year was $0 per ton, slightly higher than market expectations, highlighting the tight supply situation at the mine end [10][24]. - In the third quarter of 2025, the production of major global copper miners showed a structural tightening trend, with output generally declining. For example, BHP's copper concentrate production decreased slightly, and Southern Copper, Freeport, and Zijin Mining all had different degrees of production cuts due to factors such as grade decline and accidents [10][26]. - Although the processing fees were low, the strong prices of by - products supported the growth of domestic refined copper production. The expansion of smelting capacity was slightly faster than that of the mine end. In the future, the profit of the copper industry chain will continue to concentrate upstream. The supply - demand gap of copper concentrates is expected to widen from 2025 - 2026, start to narrow in 2027, and turn into a surplus in 2028 [10][32][35]. 3.2.2 Refined Ore Supply Constraints Suppress Smelter Profits, and Scrap Copper Supply Also Has Short - term Bottlenecks - From January to October 2025, domestic refined copper production was about 1.115 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of nearly 12%. Domestic smelting maintained a high operating rate, relying on the strong prices of by - products and scrap copper to offset the decline in processing fees. In the future, the sustainability of this state depends on the realization of overseas mine production and the support of by - products and scrap copper [13][41]. - From January to September 2025, scrap copper production was 902,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.18%. However, due to policy adjustments and import constraints, the supply of scrap copper was limited and there was a risk of a slight decline in the future [42]. 3.2.3 The Tight Spot Pattern in Shanghai and London Continues, and Copper Prices Are Prone to Rise and Difficult to Fall under Tariff Expectations - From January to October 2025, domestic electrolytic copper imports decreased by 6.14% year - on - year, while exports increased by 29.44% year - on - year. The Comex premium led to the migration of inventories from London and Shanghai to the US. The Shanghai and London markets were in a tight Back structure, and if tariffs were implemented, the tight pattern of Shanghai copper would be difficult to ease, and the overall copper price center would be prone to rise [46][48]. 3.3 Primary Processing - end Situation Overview 3.3.1 Copper Rods - Grid Rush Installation and Temporarily Tight Refined Copper Lead to a Recovery in Processing Fees - In July - September 2025, the wire and cable tenders of the State Grid and China Southern Power Grid increased by 18% year - on - year. Due to smelter maintenance, the production of 8 - mm copper rods decreased, and the processing fees rebounded from 550 yuan to 700 yuan. After that, the processing fees fell back to 600 - 650 yuan but were still higher than in 2024. In 2026, copper rod consumption may maintain positive growth, and the processing fee center may oscillate between 550 - 700 yuan [50][53]. 3.3.2 Copper Tubes - Air - conditioner Production Scheduling First High and Then Low, and Exports Rush to the "Tariff Window" - In July - August 2025, the production scheduling of household air - conditioners increased by 12%. In September, due to the possible increase in HVAC tariffs in 2026, copper tube exports increased by 26% year - on - year. After October, air - conditioner production scheduling decreased, and processing fees fell slightly. In 2026, domestic air - conditioner sales will enter the replacement cycle, and exports may be under pressure. If copper prices remain above 80,000 yuan, "aluminum replacing copper" may accelerate, and copper tube consumption may have zero growth, with the processing fee range at 4,500 - 5,200 yuan [55]. 3.3.3 Copper Foil - Lithium - battery Demand Is "Not Weak in the Off - season", and Processing Fees Bottomed out and Rebounded - In July 2025, the production scheduling of lithium - ion batteries decreased, and the operating rate of lithium - ion copper foil reached a minimum of 68%. After August, with the implementation of policies such as energy storage and "trading in the old for the new", the production scheduling of power batteries increased, and processing fees rebounded. In 2026, new copper foil production capacity will be mainly high - end projects, and processing fees are expected to continue to recover [58]. 3.4 Terminal Situation Overview 3.4.1 Power - A Solid Foundation for Copper Demand and Potential Demand Growth Points in the Construction of a New Power System - The power sector is the largest part of domestic copper terminal demand. According to the "15th Five - Year Plan", the strategic position of the power sector is emphasized again. By 2030, the copper consumption in the power sector is expected to reach more than 800 million tons. The growth of renewable energy such as wind and solar power and the construction of UHV projects will be the main driving forces for copper demand growth. However, in 2026, the marginal growth rate of copper demand in the power sector may decline due to the possible short - term decline in the photovoltaic sector and the slowdown of UHV construction [60][61][63]. 3.4.2 Real Estate - Structural Opportunities in the Stock Era - The real estate sector's demand for copper is concentrated in building wiring, pipeline systems, etc. Although the real estate market is in a deep adjustment period, there will be a major opportunity for demand structure transformation during the "15th Five - Year Plan". The renovation of old communities, urban renewal, and the development of smart homes and "photovoltaic - energy storage - charging" integrated parking lots will drive copper demand. However, in 2026, the real estate sector may still drag down copper terminal demand [75][76][77]. 3.4.3 Automobiles - The Automobile Sector Still Has a Certain Pulling Effect on Demand under the Electrification Transformation - With the continuous increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles, they have become the core driving force for copper demand in the transportation sector. In 2024, new energy vehicles consumed about 1.068 billion tons of copper, accounting for about 60% of transportation copper demand. By 2030, the total copper consumption in the transportation sector is expected to exceed 2.4 billion tons [83][85]. 3.4.4 Home Appliances - The "15th Five - Year Plan" May Be an Era of Both Quantity and Quality Improvement - In the "15th Five - Year Plan", the home appliance industry will face the full upgrade of energy - efficiency standards and the wave of intelligence. The copper consumption of air - conditioners and refrigerators is expected to increase. The export market will also have certain growth, and the home appliance industry will maintain a stable growth rate of 3 - 4% in copper consumption during the "15th Five - Year Plan" [92][93]. 3.4.5 Electronics Sector - The Most Important Demand Growth Point - During the "15th Five - Year Plan", the domestic electronics information industry will continue to develop in the directions of high - end, electrification, and intelligence. PCB and electronic wiring harnesses will be the main driving forces for copper demand growth. By 2030, the copper consumption in the electronics sector is expected to reach 2 billion tons, with an average annual growth rate of 7.3% [100][101][102]. 3.4.6 Summary of Changes in Copper Terminal Demand in Each Sector - In 2026, the power, automobile, home appliance, and electronics sectors will have positive marginal increments in copper demand, while the real estate sector will have a negative marginal increment. Overall, the total copper demand will increase slightly [108]. 3.5 Comex Inventory Continues to Rise, while Inventories in Shanghai and London Are Difficult to Accumulate Continuously - In 2025, Comex inventory continued to rise significantly, approaching 400,000 tons. This is mainly due to the previous high premium in the US market caused by tariff expectations. In the Shanghai and London markets, low inventories may lead to squeeze - out risks from time to time [107]. 3.6 Domestic Supply in 2026 May Continue to Be in a Slight Surplus - According to the forecast, in 2026, the global refined copper production will be 2.8166 billion tons, and the demand will be 2.8076 billion tons, with a surplus of 90,000 tons [116].

期货研究报告 | 新能源&有色 行业研究报告 预计 2026 年锡价在供应难有保障，而需求则是在"十五五"规划的刺激以及美联储降息持续的背景下维持...... 缅甸复产暂不及预期 需求存在潜在增长点 新能源&有色组行业锡年报 本期分析研究员 华泰期货研究院新能源&有色金属研究 2025 年 11 月 30 日 陈思捷 从业资格号 F3080232 投资咨询号 Z0016047 师橙 从业资格号 F3046665 投资咨询号 Z0014806 封帆 从业资格号 F03139777 投资咨询号 Z0021579 缅甸复产暂不及预期 需求存在潜在增长点 策略摘要 2025 年下半年以来，佤邦雨季致复产及出口不及预期，进口矿加工费跌至 1.1 万，供应端干扰仍存。而需求则是在"十五五"规划相关板块的刺激下或将 呈现逐步转强的情况，价格重心预计在 2026 年仍将上行。 核心观点 ■ 市场分析 价格展望： 预计 2026 年锡价在供应难有保障，而需求则是在"十五五"规 划的刺激以及美联储降息持续的背景下维持震荡偏强格局，高点或触及 37 万元 /吨至 38 万元/吨区间。 矿端：2025 下半年锡精矿"紧平衡"难破：佤 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes maintaining economic growth within a reasonable range, aiming for an average GDP growth rate of approximately 4.8% during this period, with specific targets of around 5% for 2026-2027 and 4.5-5% for 2028-2030, indicating a need for an expansionary and proactive policy stance [2][3][5]. Economic Growth Targets - Historical data shows that previous five-year plans often set GDP growth targets that were exceeded, with average growth rates of 9.8% and 11.3% during the "10th" and "11th" plans, respectively, while the "14th" plan aimed for a reasonable range [4]. - The potential GDP growth for the "15th Five-Year Plan" is estimated to be between 4.8% and 4.9%, with a specific focus on achieving an average of 4.84% during this period [6]. Policy Recommendations - The central government is advised to increase leverage and implement more aggressive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, including maintaining a budget deficit rate around 4% and increasing special bond issuance [8]. - To stimulate consumption, policies should focus on direct financial support for residents, particularly in service sectors, and measures to stabilize the real estate market, such as lowering mortgage rates [9]. Long-term Economic Goals - By 2035, the goal is to achieve a per capita GDP of over $20,000, necessitating an average annual growth rate of 4.17% during the "15th" and "16th" plans, which reflects a baseline target rather than an aspirational goal [7]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims for a higher growth rate of over 4.7% to stabilize social expectations and boost market confidence, thereby enhancing investment and consumption [7].

Core Points - The Henan Provincial Committee held a press conference to interpret the spirit of the 11th Plenary Session of the 11th Provincial Committee and the "Suggestions" for the 15th Five-Year Plan [2][3] - The "Suggestions" are considered a significant outcome of the plenary session, emphasizing the importance of scientific, democratic, and legal decision-making throughout the drafting process [3][4] - The drafting process involved extensive research and public consultation, gathering over 10,551 suggestions from various stakeholders [4][5] Summary by Sections Overall Achievements and Goals - The "Suggestions" outline the major achievements during the 14th Five-Year Plan and analyze the challenges for the 15th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing quality improvement and reasonable growth [7][8] - The document sets a goal for Henan to achieve a per capita GDP close to or reaching that of moderately developed countries by 2035, aligning with national modernization efforts [8] Key Focus Areas - The drafting process focused on four main aspects: aligning with national strategies, integrating local capabilities, promoting high-quality development, and strategically planning for key areas [6][7] - The "Suggestions" include 13 sections and 60 articles, addressing critical issues such as modern industrial systems, innovation, rural revitalization, and social governance [7][8] Implementation and Governance - The final section emphasizes the importance of strengthening the Party's leadership, enhancing democratic governance, and improving the business environment to ensure effective implementation of the plan [8]