特朗普：接近与中国达成协议。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):特朗普：与欧盟达成协议的几率为50%。至于美加贸易，可能直接加征关税，而不选择谈判。关税信函将在周五发出。 ...

特朗普：与欧盟达成协议的几率为50%。至于美加贸易，可能直接加征关税，而不选择谈判。关税信函将在周五发出。 ...

铜产业链周度报告 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 2025-7-25 中航期货 目录 01 报告摘要 03 数据分析 02 多空焦点 04 后市研判 | 给、 | 影 | 到 | 内 | 供 | 看， | 来 | 及 | 时， | 受 | 季 | 供 | 国 | 撑78000， | 优 | 以 | 撑78000 | 以 | 加 | 来 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 前 | 断 | 淡 | 优 | 同 | 年 | 缩 | 增 | 面 | 构、 | 不 | 目 | 半 | 萎 | 比 | 方 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 构 ...

关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.7.25」 集运指数（欧线）期货周报 作者：廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号： Z0020723 联系电话：0595-86778969 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息回顾与分析 3、图表分析 4、行情展望与策略 周度要点总结 本周集运指数（欧线）期货价格涨跌不一，主力合约EC2510收跌6.35%，其余合约收得-5-4%不等。最新SCFIS欧 线结算运价指数为2400.50，较上周回落21.40点，环比下行0.9%，现货指标回落。7月底达飞上海离港前往鹿特丹的 船期，20GP总报价下降$100、40GP总报价下降$200，现舱报价有所回落。日美关税谈判达成协议，外加欧盟与美国贸 易谈判正有序进行，市场对关税所带来的负面影响预期减弱，远月合约期价回涨幅度高于近月。美国6月核心CPI同比 2.9%，预期3.0%，虽连续低于预期，但关税敏感品类价格已现传导迹象，特朗普近期关税加码或持续抬升通胀上行风 险，零售销售超预期反弹体现美国本土消费韧性，但部分受关税上调导致总体零售额的提振，为美元提供基本面支撑。 PPI环比停滞揭示企业正通过利润压 ...

铝产业链周度报告 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 2025-7-25 中航期货 目录 01 报告摘要 03 数据分析 02 多空焦点 04 后市研判 | 美 | 止 | 关 | 优 | 以 | 水 | 对 | 价 | 结 | 淡 | 截 | 数 | 年 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 于 | 存 | 场 | 铝 | 调 | 构、 | 求； | 整 | 半 | 处 | 位 | 引。 | 库 | 市 | 力 | 示， | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 需 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 注20000 ...

欧洲央行调查：关税在2025年和2026年对通胀将产生0.06%的下行影响，到2027年总体影响大致中性。 ...

大众汽车CEO：如果达成类似日本的协议，征收15%的关税，我们最终将大致处于我们指引的中间水 平。 ...

大众汽车CFO：关税很可能会成为持续性负担，须加倍努力以抵消其影响。 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Global Macro Outlook**: The call discusses the macroeconomic environment, focusing on US rates, international rates, commodities, currencies, and emerging markets. Key Points on US Rates - **Value at Front-End**: There is a continued belief in value at the front-end of the yield curve, with 1Y1Y OIS rates appearing high on a medium-term basis. The expectation is for the Fed to ease later this year [3][11][16]. - **Treasury Issuance**: A projection of $629 billion in net T-bill issuance for the current quarter is made, as the Treasury aims to rebuild the TGA following the passage of the OBBBA [3][29]. International Rates - **Tariff Impact**: The announcement of a 30% tariff on EU goods has had little market reaction, with a focus on potential negotiations. The ECB is expected to keep rates on hold [4][42]. Commodities - **Oil Market Dynamics**: President Trump has issued a 50-day ultimatum to Russia regarding oil exports, threatening 100% secondary tariffs. This could lead to a significant supply shock in oil markets due to the scale of Russian exports and limited OPEC spare capacity [8][95]. - **Copper Tariffs**: The impending 50% US copper tariff could result in a 4% drag on refined copper demand growth in the US next year, although US copper demand only accounts for 6% of global demand [99][101]. Currencies - **USD Outlook**: A bearish outlook on the USD is maintained, with expectations of further weakness due to cyclical and structural factors. Recent data has shown mixed signals, but the overall medium-term view remains bearish [67][63]. - **EUR/USD Forecast**: The EUR/USD is expected to strengthen, with a target of 1.19 for Q3 and 1.22 for the next year, driven by US moderation and currency hedges rebalancing [78][80]. Emerging Markets - **Investment Strategy**: The recommendation is to stay underweight (UW) on EM sovereigns while maintaining a market weight (MW) stance on EM FX, local rates, and corporates. The outlook is cautious due to overvalued EM credit and overbought EM FX markets [8][5]. Additional Insights - **Treasury Funding Needs**: The Treasury is well-funded through FY25, but a significant funding gap is expected to emerge in FY26, necessitating coupon size increases starting in February 2026 [17][19]. - **Market Reactions**: The muted market reaction to tariff news indicates a focus on potential negotiations rather than immediate impacts [39][42]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current macroeconomic landscape and its implications for various sectors.

大众汽车CEO：我们必须将加速降本，不能假设关税只是暂时的。 ...