螺纹钢、热卷产业风险管理日报 2025/06/12 严志妮 投资咨询证号：Z0022076 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 螺纹价格区间预测 | | 主力价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率 | 波动率百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 2800-3100 | 11.25% | 14.0% | | 热卷 | 2900-3200 | 11.37% | 9.74% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 螺纹风险管理策略建议 | 情景分析 | 现货 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 导向 | 敞口 | | | 方向 | | 场区间 | | | | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情 | RB2510 | | 40% | 3000-3 100 | | 产成品库存偏高，担心 | | 况，做空螺纹或是热卷期货来锁定利润，弥补企 | | 卖出 | | | | 管理 钢材价格下跌 | 多 | 业的生产成本 | HC2510 | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the collective effort of Chinese automotive companies to combat "involution" in the industry by standardizing supplier payment terms to within 60 days, in response to the new regulations aimed at improving the payment environment for small and medium enterprises [1][2][3] - The implementation of the "Regulations on Payment for Small and Medium Enterprises" is seen as a significant step towards promoting high-quality development in the automotive sector, particularly in the context of the ongoing "price war" that threatens industry profitability [1][2] - The sales data indicates that in 2024, China's new energy vehicle (NEV) sales are projected to reach 12.866 million units, marking a significant milestone with a penetration rate of 40.9%, and an expected growth to 16 million units in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 25% [2][3] Group 2 - The automotive industry is experiencing a shift from traditional fuel vehicles to new energy vehicles, with innovations such as BYD's blade battery and NIO's battery swap technology enhancing China's competitive edge in the global market [3][6] - The Chinese automotive export volume is expected to exceed 5 million units in 2024, with NEVs accounting for over 40%, indicating a redefinition of global automotive competition by Chinese brands [3][6] - The industry is encouraged to adopt self-regulatory initiatives to break free from low-quality, low-cost competition, focusing on technological and management innovations to enhance product quality and service [3][6] Group 3 - The volatility of raw material prices significantly impacts the profitability of NEV manufacturers, necessitating the use of futures markets for risk management to stabilize operational performance [4][5] - Companies like CATL have been actively engaging in hedging strategies since their IPO in 2018, expanding their risk management to include various metals and commodities essential for production [4][5] - The average inventory turnover days for NEV companies over the past five years is 60 days, highlighting the risk of inventory devaluation due to price fluctuations in raw materials [5] Group 4 - The high-quality development of the automotive industry is viewed as a critical indicator of China's economic resilience and vitality, showcasing advancements from battery technology to global market positioning [6] - The transition towards high-quality development in the automotive sector is not only an industrial upgrade but also a strategic choice for China to assert its influence in the global industrial transformation [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of futures and derivatives in enhancing risk management for real enterprises, particularly in the context of the construction materials industry [1][4] - The training organized by Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) provided comprehensive learning opportunities for the business team of Kaisheng Resources, covering fundamental principles, hedging strategies, and practical applications of risk management [1][2] - Kaisheng Resources, a subsidiary of China National Building Material Group, has expanded its procurement categories from soda ash to include quartz sand, natural gas, tin ingots, and precious metals, indicating a strategic shift towards utilizing futures for risk management [1][3] Group 2 - The training session was well-received by participants, who found the content practical and beneficial for understanding futures and derivatives, thus enhancing their risk management capabilities [3][5] - Hebei Zhengda Glass Co., as a case study, demonstrated the effectiveness of futures in risk management, utilizing strategies such as spot-futures combinations and cross-period arbitrage to optimize profits and expand their customer base [2][3] - The ZCE aims to provide customized solutions for state-owned enterprises, focusing on improving service quality and addressing challenges in participating in the futures market [4][5]

证券代码：002497 证券简称：雅化集团 四川雅化实业集团股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 编号：20250611 投资者关 系活动类 别 特定对象调研 分析师会议 媒体采访 业绩说明会 新闻发布会 路演活动 现场参观 其他（请文字说明其他活动内容） 参与单位 名称及人 员姓名 中信证券：刘宇飞、安梦成 四川海子投资：谌东平、曾理 方正证券：甘嘉尧、熊宇航 中泰证券：曹惠、何利苹 国联民生证券：张玮航 华安证券：刘天其 东北证券：上官京杰 星石投资：邱英伦 弘尚资产：沙正江 时间 2025 年 6 月 11 日 地点 四川雅化实业集团股份有限公司会议室 上市公司 接待人员 姓名 董事会秘书：郑璐 投资者关系管理：黄国城 介绍公司发展历程，锂业务和民爆业务的发展情况、应用领域、产能情况、业 务布局、行业地位、未来发展等。 二、公司主营业务市场地位 公司是锂盐产品尤其是电池级氢氧化锂的主要生产商，拥有行业领先的生产技 术和制造装备，全程实现产线自动化、生产智能化、管理信息化，有效提升生产效 率、保证产品品质。生产线工艺技术、装备水平均属于行业领先水平，产品品质稳 定，质量优于国家标准，生产出的高品质、高纯度的电 ...

盛达资源：公司今年未开展白银套期保值业务，公司目前未持有白银空头保值头寸，白银价格的上涨未 对公司造成损失。 ...

E /ATF/Host-up # 郭野 n Ham I 蛋蛋 T WE LEAD BOY DE LEASE THE LEASE m GITKS CHE I CHANA THE THE H 四 098 9 Hum S PENT US SP SOLE ASS 15 ttp:// HB3 011 4332 5/E ative se nam solal FEE n 25 p Hall Ch in . 宁波港北仑国际集装箱码头，红色的桥吊吊臂上下舞动，一艘往返欧美航线的集装箱运输船正在进行装卸作业。在刚刚过去的几个月，国际贸易局势跌宕起 伏，海运和外贸市场首先受到影响。 针对外部市场的不确定性，宁波舟山港通过稳航线、拓市场、调结构、优服务，实现了逆势增长。宁波舟山港股份有限公司董事、副总经理滕亚辉在5月末 举行的海丝港口合作论坛上表示，今年1—4月份，宁波舟山港完成集装箱吞吐量1356.8万标箱，同比增长9.9%。 他表示，在当前中美关税暂缓的窗口期，外贸企业"抢出口"的需求增加，宁波舟山港将继续打好"稳拓调优"组合拳，通过加大仓位供给、加强空箱保障、提 升码头服务、优化口岸环境，更好应对"出货潮"，预计6月中旬各对美 ...

肖宇非（投资咨询证号：Z0018441） 揭婷（从业资格证号：F03114103） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 南华铝产业链风险管理报告 2025/06/11 氧化铝、电解铝、铝合金近期价格区间预测 | | 最新价格 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 氧化铝 | 2895 | 2800-3200 | 0.4309 | 0.9309 | | 电解铝 | 20250 | 19000-20300 | 0.0977 | 0.4114 | | 铝合金 | 19400 | 18500-19900 | - | - | source： 南华研究,同花顺 氧化铝、电解铝风险管理策略建议 | 品种 行为导向 | | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | | 买卖方向 套保比例（%） 建议入场区间 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 氧化铝 | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心 ...

Core Viewpoint - The launch of casting aluminum alloy futures and options on June 10 marks the first recycled metal commodity in China's futures market, with strong initial trading performance and participation from leading aluminum companies [1][2][3]. Market Performance - On the first trading day, all seven contracts for casting aluminum alloy futures closed higher, with the main contract AD2511 opening at 19,400 yuan/ton and closing at 19,190 yuan/ton, a rise of 825 yuan/ton or 4.49% from the listing benchmark price of 18,365 yuan/ton [3][4]. - The total trading volume for the seven contracts reached 57,300 lots, with a transaction value of 11.011 billion yuan, and the main contract AD2511 accounted for 52,300 lots and 10.1 billion yuan in transaction value [3][4]. Industry Participation - Major aluminum companies such as Shunbo Alloy, Lichong Group, and Judong Co. actively participated in the trading on the first day, indicating strong industry interest [1][6][8]. - The recycled aluminum alloy industry is primarily composed of private enterprises, with a market concentration of about 30% among the top five companies [7]. Price Dynamics and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the initial price performance aligns with expectations, but caution that the market may experience significant price fluctuations due to seasonal demand changes and supply dynamics [4][5]. - The industry faces challenges such as overcapacity and low profit margins, with a projected operating rate of only 53% in 2024, which may limit future price increases [4][5]. Impact on Related Companies - The launch of casting aluminum alloy futures has positively impacted stock prices of related companies, with Shunbo Alloy rising by 10.01% and Lichong Group by 7.60% as of June 11 [8]. - Shunbo Alloy's projected revenue for 2024 is 13.977 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17%, although its net profit is expected to decrease by 47.96% [8]. Strategic Importance - The introduction of these futures is expected to enhance risk management for industry players, providing a more effective hedging tool compared to existing aluminum futures [8][9]. - The futures market is anticipated to play a significant role in the pricing mechanism for aluminum alloys, contributing to a more transparent and fair market environment [8][9][10].

Core Points - The company is preparing for its annual shareholder meeting scheduled for June 19, 2025, with specific guidelines to ensure order and protect shareholder rights [1][2][4] - The meeting will include the review of the 2024 annual report and the board's work report, highlighting the company's performance and strategic direction [6][15] - The company reported a revenue of 32.497 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 1.86% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.114 billion yuan [20][22] Meeting Guidelines - The meeting will have a designated management office to oversee procedures and maintain order [1] - Only authorized participants, including shareholders and company officials, will be allowed entry [1] - Shareholders must present identification for registration on the day of the meeting [1] Voting and Agenda - Voting will be conducted through both on-site and online methods [2][4] - The agenda includes the announcement of the meeting's commencement, review of key proposals, and the election of inspectors [4][5] Financial Performance - The company achieved a total revenue of 32.497 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 2.114 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease in profitability [20][22] - The total assets at the end of 2024 were reported at 201.03 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.375 billion yuan from the beginning of the year [21] - The company's debt ratio improved to 41.48%, down from 44.90% at the beginning of the year [22] Board and Governance - The board of directors held nine meetings in 2024, addressing 51 major topics including strategic planning and investment [7] - The company emphasizes compliance and governance, with ongoing improvements to its internal control systems [12][14] ESG and Sustainability - The company has launched an ESG strategy with specific goals and measures to enhance its sustainability practices [11] - It received recognition for its ESG efforts, including awards for best practices in sustainable development [11]

Group 1 - The company held its 12th meeting of the 6th Supervisory Board on June 10, 2025, to discuss various matters, including risk management strategies related to commodity futures hedging [1][2] - The Supervisory Board unanimously agreed that the company's commodity futures hedging business is aimed at effectively controlling risks associated with raw material price fluctuations, and the relevant internal control measures are feasible [1][2] - The company plans to optimize its financing structure by securing financing from banks, with the controlling shareholder providing a guarantee of up to 114 million yuan [2][5] Group 2 - The Supervisory Board approved the cancellation of certain stock options, confirming compliance with relevant laws and regulations, and ensuring no harm to the company's or shareholders' interests [3][5] - The company also received approval for the repurchase and cancellation of certain restricted stocks, which was deemed legal and compliant with the company's incentive plan [3][5]