后台有留言，讨论关税战对创投行业的影响。中短期内，我觉得会有一些利空的影响。 但是长期，我认为无非就是全球贸易秩序重塑，漂亮国带自己的朋友圈，我们带我们的朋友圈。然后因 为我们是出口为主，所以我们建立自己的贸易圈，难度会比漂亮国大。 大就大呗。我们历史上，近代史上，面临的一个个挑战，就没有小的。 而贸易秩序重塑的过程，有没有可能反而会对我们的创投行业带来一些新的机会。 关于对创投行业的长期影响，我可能没有很强的宏观经济分析的能力，我想分享三个小故事。 （一） 上世纪末，漂亮国时任总统克林顿，邀请我方重新加入 WTO 。 是克林顿真把我们当朋友吗？ nono 我个人眼中，当时漂亮国的考量是：用我们的庞大人口，为欧美生产廉价商品，转移漂亮国的通胀； 同时，我们加入以美元为核心的世界经济体系，也有助于巩固美元的全球地位。 有很多坊间传闻说，克林顿完全没有想到，我们用了大概 20 年，就把光伏、新能源等等非常多的行业 干到了全球第一，完全没想到我们可以对漂亮国构成威胁。 为什么没想到？ 因为他们不理解，我们的劳动人民，为了创造美好的明天，而可以承受多少的辛苦， 忍受多少的劳累。 （二） 很多业内传言，这次关税战之后， ...

作 者丨王峰 编 辑丨周上祺 图 源丨摄图网 中国的"工程师红利"正在加快释放。新华社近日报道称，有外媒评价：中国的"工程师红利"正 产生巨大回报。美国一家智库机构的数据显示，2 0 2 2年，在全球排名前2 0%的人工智能研究 人员中，有4 7%的人本科学业是在中国完成的，而在美国读完本科的仅占1 8%。 最新发布的《国家创新指数报告2 0 2 4》显示，我国创新能力综合排名居世界第1 0位。中国经 济的发展动力正从人口红利向知识红利转变。 这体现出我国工程师人才供需存在"温差"。行业头部企业和领军企业具有显著的规模优势和市 场影响力，其创新研发的诉求也更加体系化，在推进产教融合过程中，无论是协同方式还是持 续投入，都有较为清晰、完善的思路。而研发更加灵活、人才需求更加多元化的中小企业，很 难套用这种培养供应模式，也难以和大型企业集团竞争人才。 创新型中小企业是创新驱动发展的生力军。工程师对于中小企业发展的作用举足轻重。某种程 度上说，工程师的质量决定着创新型中小企业能否进阶为"专精特新"、小巨人以及制造业单项 冠军企业。 这是因为，中小企业难以建立起大型企业那样强大的科技研发团队，企业研发创新依赖于高校 ...

2025中国IC领袖峰会现场 ◎郑维汉 AI技术遍地开花，各行各业风起云涌。作为半导体产业链条上游，集成电路设计行业是否能乘着AI的 东风，实现更多的创新？国内芯片厂商又该如何抓住机会，实现高质量发展？ 3月27日，在2025中国IC领袖峰会上，多位中国企业家针对上述行业热点问题进行探讨。行业人士一致 认为，在AI的赋能下，芯片设计行业涌现出了更多的市场机会，EDA、RISC-V、存储等领域均将受 益。展望未来，利用后发优势、做好定制化服务等是国内芯片厂商提高竞争力、实现高质量发展的可选 路径。 AI工具还可以让一位工程师同时执行多个项目。"许多半导体设计公司的人员并没有增加，但是他们的 设计项目增长了5倍甚至10倍，其中的关键就是AI赋能。"张永专补充道。 进入2025年，业内对RISC-V架构的关注明显升温。事实上，从底层的IP核来看，在高性能和AI领域， RISC-V已经进入高性能通用计算的边界。 阿里巴巴达摩院玄铁RISC-V商业拓展负责人李珏表示，在国内的AI应用场景中，RISC-V正在推进更多 的解决方案和产品落地。"无论是手表、手环、AIGC，还是端侧机器人、边缘侧视频处理、AI加速，均 已出现 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the Chinese government's initiative to boost consumption through a comprehensive action plan, highlighting the importance of consumer spending as a potential engine for economic growth, alongside other factors such as AI-related investments and real estate market stabilization [1][2]. Group 1: Consumption Performance - The retail sales growth rate for social consumer goods increased from 3.7% in December to 4% in January-February, indicating a stabilization in consumer demand, particularly in the restaurant and communication equipment sectors [5][6]. - The "trade-in" policy is expected to enhance retail sales growth by approximately 1 percentage point, with the total subsidy for 2024 projected to reach 300 billion, significantly increasing from the previous year's 150 billion [6][7]. Group 2: Policy Impact on Consumption - The action plan aims to improve consumer capacity and willingness through various measures, including direct subsidies and incentives, which are anticipated to have a noticeable impact on consumption in the second quarter [8][9]. - Policies such as lowering housing fund loan rates and providing interest subsidies for consumer loans are expected to marginally improve residents' cash flow and enhance disposable income [9][10]. Group 3: Economic Growth Engines - The article emphasizes the need to monitor the transition from export-driven growth to domestic consumption, with real estate market recovery and fiscal spending being critical variables for economic stability [11]. - AI-related investments are projected to enter a "boom" phase, potentially driving GDP growth, with China's investment in AI expected to outpace that of the U.S. in the coming years due to its unique advantages [12].

Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce is promoting a consumption boost plan focusing on upgrading product consumption, expanding service consumption, cultivating new consumption types, and innovating consumption scenarios [1][5] - Current consumer demand is stabilizing, particularly in the restaurant and service sectors, with a notable increase in retail sales of communication devices, furniture, and home appliances [3][4] - The "trade-in" policy is expected to significantly boost retail sales growth, with estimates suggesting it could add approximately 0.9-1.2 percentage points to annual retail sales growth [4][6] Group 2 - The plan includes measures to lower housing provident fund loan rates and provide interest subsidies on consumer loans, which may improve residents' cash flow and income expectations [6][7] - The real estate sector is showing signs of recovery, which could alleviate its drag on economic growth, while AI-related investments are anticipated to enter a rapid growth phase, potentially driving GDP growth [2][9] - The government aims for a 5% growth target for the year, with a focus on stabilizing domestic demand and supporting the transition from export-driven to consumption-driven economic growth [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significance of the "engineer dividend" in China's economic growth, highlighting the need for high-quality human resources, particularly engineers, to drive the next phase of economic development [1][6]. Group 1: Engineer Workforce Growth - China's engineer workforce has grown from 521,000 in 2000 to 1,765,300 in 2020, an increase of approximately 3.4 times, with an annual growth rate of 6.3% [2]. - In 2020, the total number of scientists and engineers in China was 1.2 times that of the EU, 2.6 times that of the US, 5.1 times that of the UK, 5.5 times that of Germany, 9 times that of France, and 16.4 times that of Italy [2]. Group 2: Impact on Industry - The "engineer dividend" has facilitated the transformation of industries from labor-intensive to technology-intensive, leading to the emergence of advanced manufacturing companies [2]. - BYD, for instance, has grown from a startup with 20 employees to a global enterprise with nearly 1 million employees, driven by an engineering spirit and a workforce of over 100,000 engineers by 2024 [2]. Group 3: Education and Talent Development - There is a need for improved quality in the engineer workforce, as a significant portion (nearly 40%) holds only an associate degree, while less than 9% have master's or doctoral degrees [3]. - The ideal structure of the engineer workforce should maintain a reasonable ratio among outstanding engineers, field engineers, technical personnel, and industrial workers [3]. Group 4: National Initiatives - The "Outstanding Engineer" program was established as a strategic talent initiative by the Central Talent Work Conference in September 2021, with recognition of outstanding engineers and teams in January 2024 [4]. - The Ministry of Education is promoting the development of "new engineering" disciplines and has established national outstanding engineer innovation research institutes in key regions [4]. Group 5: Innovative Training Mechanisms - Effective engineer training requires integration of education and industry, with new organizational structures like the National Outstanding Engineer Colleges being established [5]. - The training mechanism includes joint enrollment and training between universities and enterprises, allowing students to spend more time in practical settings [5]. Group 6: Addressing Talent Shortages - Despite the ongoing release of the "engineer dividend," there is a shortage of top-tier engineers, necessitating an expansion of quality undergraduate and graduate education to cultivate outstanding engineers [6].

Group 1 - The China Development Forum 2025 aims to explore new economic dynamics and promote global economic stability, attracting global leaders and scholars [1][3] - The forum serves as a high-level dialogue platform for policymakers and business leaders, focusing on macroeconomic policies and growth [3] - Key discussions include China's economic growth target of "around 5%" for the year, which aligns with the "14th Five-Year Plan" and supports the "15th Five-Year Plan" [5] Group 2 - The forum emphasizes the importance of technological innovation and its role in driving new productive forces, with a focus on artificial intelligence and sustainable development [6][7] - The Chinese government is prioritizing key core technology research and development in sectors like integrated circuits and new energy vehicles [7] - Initiatives to boost domestic consumption are being implemented, including a special action plan to enhance effective demand through high-quality supply [8] Group 3 - The forum is recognized as a key window for observing the implementation of policies from China's Two Sessions, highlighting confidence in China's economic development [9] - KPMG's commitment to deepening its presence in China and supporting global service delivery is reinforced through participation in the forum [9]

Core Insights - The China Development Forum 2025 concluded recently, marking its 25th anniversary with participation from 86 multinational companies from 21 countries, indicating a record high of new attendees [1] - Multinational companies are keen to understand China's latest economic policies and development trends, seeking opportunities in the Chinese market amidst global challenges [1] - The forum highlighted China's transition towards high-quality development and its impact on the global economy, emphasizing the need to address both internal and external challenges [1] Group 1 - Foreign business leaders noted China's burgeoning innovation momentum, with significant investments such as AstraZeneca's $2.5 billion commitment to establish a strategic R&D center in Beijing [2] - The investment model of foreign companies in China is shifting from manufacturing to research and development, reflecting China's move from low-end manufacturing to high-end manufacturing and technological innovation [2] - China's vast consumer market potential and the emergence of an "engineer dividend" are expected to drive economic growth, supported by a favorable business environment [2]