证券研究报告——煤炭行业周报 港口库存压力缓解，动力煤产地价强势反弹 【2025.5.26-2025.6.1】 行业评级：中性 发布日期：2025.6.3 煤炭行情走势图 数据来源：Wind 大同证券 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 2024-06-07 2024-07-07 2024-08-07 2024-09-07 2024-10-07 2024-11-07 2024-12-07 2025-01-07 2025-02-07 2025-03-07 2025-04-07 2025-05-07 沪深300 煤炭指数 大同证券研究中心 分析师：刘永芳 执业证书编号：S0770524100001 邮箱： liuyongfang@dtsbc.com.cn 地址：山西太原长治路 111 号山 西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址:http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 终端需求大幅回落，板块轮动加快，板块突发利空。 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 1 核心观点 ◆ 港口库存压力缓解，动力煤产地价强势反弹。本周，煤价稳中 有升，随着高温天增加，电煤日耗将进入提升阶段，但当前供 需宽松，预计 ...

英国央行行长贝利：工资增长高于与2%通胀目标相符的水平，但低于二月份的预期。 ...

英国央行副行长布里登：没有理由怀疑代理机构薪酬调查的指引，预计今年年底工资增长将降至 3.7%-3.8%。 ...

日本央行行长植田和男：尽管经济增长放缓，但日本可能仍将维持工资与物价同步上涨的机制。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's Governor Kazuo Ueda indicates that the labor market in Japan remains tight, leading companies to continue maintaining a positive wage-setting behavior [1] Group 1 - The tight labor market in Japan suggests that companies are likely to increase wages to attract and retain talent [1] - Positive wage-setting behavior is expected to persist among businesses due to ongoing labor market conditions [1]

企业利润修复叠加劳动力市场紧俏，薪资与物价的正向循环机制已显著强化。2024年"春斗"劳资谈判显 示，企业平均加薪幅度达5.46%，连续第二年超越前期水平，形成工资上涨预期的自我实现机制。 日本央行重申，若经济物价走势符合预期，将持续推进货币政策宽松程度的渐进调整。当前工资增速超 预期叠加通胀回落趋势，为2024年10月加息窗口奠定基础。需警惕食品价格上行引发的家庭消费紧缩风 险，以及美国贸易政策变动对供应链的潜在冲击。 【最新白银t+d行情解析】 今日周二（6月3日)亚盘时段，白银t+d目前交投于8500一线上方，今日开盘于8500元/千克，截至发稿， 白银t+d暂8412元/千克，上涨2.85%，最高触及8500元/千克，最低下探8382元/千克，目前来看，白银 t+d盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 当前日本实际工资水平持续改善，消费呈现温和增长态势。值得注意的是，历史遗留的实际工资负增长 缺口对消费能力形成长期制约，需通过持续性薪资增长巩固内需基础。关税政策可能对工资增速产 生"先抑后扬"的阶段性影响，而实际工资的稳定增长将成为经济良性循环的核心动力。 核心CPI仍略低于2%的政策目标，预计基本通 ...

Core Insights - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, highlighted that Japan's real wages are negative, which he acknowledges has a significant impact on consumption and the economy [1] Economic Impact - Negative real wages indicate that the purchasing power of consumers is declining, which could lead to reduced consumer spending [1] - The acknowledgment of this issue by the central bank's leadership suggests a potential shift in monetary policy to address the economic challenges posed by stagnant wages [1]

2025年上半年，全国多地密集上调最低工资标准，成为民生领域的一大亮点。据不完全统 计，截至5月29日，已有重庆、四川、山西、广东等8省份正式实施新标准，覆盖数千万劳动 者。 3 0省份(省、自治区、直辖市)最低工资标准超2 0 0 0元 | 地区 | | 月最低工资标准 | | | | 小时虽低工资标准 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 平日旅 | 第二卷 | 中川旅 | 東の米 | ガー族 | 第三档 | 第三版 | *四张 | | 北京 | 2420 | | | | 26.4 | | | | | 天津 | 2320 | | | | 24.4 | | | | | 月北 | 2200 | 2000 | 1800 | | 22 | 20 | 18 | | | 山區 | 2150 | 2050 | 1950 | | 23.2 | 22.1 | 20.9 | | | 内蒙古 | 2270 | 2200 | 2140 | | 22.4 | 21.7 | 21.1 | | | ジテ | 2100 | 1900 | 170 ...

文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人| 屠强、耿佩璇 摘要 2024年城镇就业人员的工资数据新鲜出炉，哪些领域在"涨薪"、哪些领域"反内卷"？工资数据背后，有 何就业"新趋势"？本文梳理，供参考。 趋势一：就业从"追求高薪"转向"反内卷"。 2024年，城镇非私营单位的平均工资增速放缓，但交运、轻工纺服等行业工资得益于营收增长的直接拉 动，仍保持较高增速。 城镇非私营单位就业人员的年均工资增速自2021年回落6.8pct，目前降至2.8%。 但交运、皮革制鞋、服装等行业工资增速分别较2021年回落4.8、上行21.8、15.6pct。行业工资表现较 好，更多是营收的直接拉动，譬如2024年交运业的营收增速超8%。 不同于2019年前就业人员向"高薪"行业集中，2021年后就业更多向工作时间短、时薪高的行业迁移，就 业倾向"反内卷"。 2015-2019年年均工资较高的金融、信息技术服务业的就业占比上行0.6、1.3pct。而 2021年后就业向工作时长短的行业流入，且这些行业时薪"被动"提高；如2021-2023年，卫生业的周工作 时长减少1.5小时，时薪增加9.3元/小时，就业占比上行0.2pct。 目前交运、居民服 ...

Group 1: Employment Trends - In 2024, the average annual salary for urban non-private sector employees is 124,000 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 6.8 percentage points since 2021, now at a growth rate of 2.8%[3] - Employment is shifting from high-salary industries to sectors with shorter working hours and higher hourly wages, indicating a trend towards "anti-involution" since 2021[4] - The transportation and service industries have seen a reduction in weekly working hours by 4.2 and 3.6 hours respectively, while hourly wages increased by 3.9 and 3.6 yuan/hour, suggesting improved job attractiveness[4] Group 2: Regional Wage Convergence - From 2019 to 2023, the wage growth in the eastern region was 7.5%, compared to 7.1% in the central and western regions, with the gap narrowing from 0.8 percentage points in 2019 to 0.5 percentage points in 2023[5] - The wage growth in the central and western regions has shown resilience, with the central region's wage growth remaining stable at around 7.1%[5] - Employment in the service sector is increasingly migrating to the central and western regions, with the proportion of employees in accommodation and retail sectors decreasing from 20.8 and 10.1 percentage points below the eastern region to 18.2 and 9 percentage points respectively[6] Group 3: Private and Flexible Employment - The average salary growth for private sector employees is lower than that of non-private sector employees, but certain sectors like education and retail services have seen higher growth rates of 8.9% and 5.3% respectively[7] - The concentration of small and medium enterprises in the service sector has led to better salary growth in private units compared to non-private units[10] - New flexible employment roles, such as ride-hailing drivers and delivery personnel, have higher average monthly salaries of 10,506 yuan, significantly above traditional employees' 8,910 yuan, despite longer working hours[10]