Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market, particularly the Hang Seng Technology Index, is experiencing significant upward momentum, raising questions about the potential for a bull market [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index has seen a year-to-date increase of over 21%, while the Hang Seng Technology Index has outperformed with a 27% rise, exceeding the Hang Seng Index by approximately 6% [3]. - The Southbound capital has continuously invested in Hong Kong stocks, with a net inflow exceeding 650 billion HKD by the end of May, representing 80% of last year's total [3]. - The Hong Kong Technology Index has shown a remarkable increase of 53% since September 2024, outperforming the Hang Seng Technology Index by about 7% [4]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - The Hong Kong Technology Index includes a broader sector distribution, with an additional 10% allocation to pharmaceuticals compared to the Hang Seng Technology Index, which may explain its superior performance [4]. - The Hong Kong stock market is home to unique assets not available in the A-share market, particularly in the internet and AI sectors, making it more attractive for investment [6]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Several international investment banks, including Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley, have raised their economic growth forecasts for China in 2025, which is expected to attract more capital back to the Chinese market [6]. - Nomura has increased its GDP growth forecast for China's second quarter from 3.7% to 4.8%, and has raised its full-year GDP growth prediction by 0.5 percentage points [6]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - The Hong Kong Technology Index currently has a price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 22.04, placing it in the 5.36% percentile, indicating it is cheaper than 95% of historical periods [8]. - The Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility Index has a dividend yield of 7.91%, which is higher than that of the A-share dividend index, making it a more attractive option for investors [11]. - The ETF fund size has increased by 250 million this year, suggesting a growing interest in diversified investment strategies that combine both technology and dividend-focused ETFs [13].

Core Insights - The global private equity investment landscape is facing increased uncertainty, prompting firms to seek investments in industries with solid support from technological advancements and social demand [1][3] - Schroders Capital is focusing on sectors such as artificial intelligence, healthcare, and consumer goods for its investment strategies [1][4] - Despite recent challenges, the private equity market is showing signs of recovery, with the Chinese market gaining a comparative advantage [1][2][6] Investment Strategies - Schroders Capital offers a diverse range of investment strategies, including renewable energy infrastructure, private equity, real estate, and private debt [2] - The firm emphasizes a rational and prudent approach to identify "core assets" in private equity investments, maintaining a focus on professional expertise [3][4] - The company has established a generative AI investment analysis platform to enhance investment decision-making processes [5] Sector Focus - The firm identifies artificial intelligence as a global topic with the potential to navigate macroeconomic cycles, actively investing in related projects [5] - The aging population presents significant investment opportunities in the healthcare sector, particularly in markets like Europe, North America, China, and Japan [6] - The consumer sector is becoming attractive due to the revaluation of assets, enhancing their cost-effectiveness [6] Market Position - The private equity market is gradually normalizing after a period of contraction, with recent trends indicating a return to historical median levels [3] - The Chinese market is increasingly viewed as advantageous compared to the US dollar market, allowing for dual investment strategies in both currencies [6] - Schroders Capital has been an early participant in the Chinese market since the implementation of the QFII system in 2002, gaining significant experience and qualifications [6]

Group 1 - A-shares experienced fluctuations and upward trends in early June, with a focus on fundamental investment logic from June to August [1] - Institutions recommend focusing on traditional capacity reduction, the rise of new consumption, and sectors with high industry prosperity, including automotive, non-ferrous metals, retail, beauty care, and chemical pharmaceuticals [1][6] - Short-term fluctuations in Hong Kong stocks are expected, but they possess recovery potential in the medium to long term, making them worthy of investor attention [10] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for seven consecutive months, with a total of 7.383 million ounces as of the end of May, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 60,000 ounces [2] - Foreign institutions such as Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs express optimism about the asset allocation value in China, citing favorable economic growth expectations and relatively low asset valuations [4] Group 3 - Citic Securities emphasizes the importance of fundamental investment logic from June to August, highlighting the supply chain for computing power (AI servers, optical modules, switches, etc.) as a key focus area [5] - Dongwu Securities suggests that short-term thematic rotation may continue, with attention on new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, controllable nuclear fusion, AI edge devices, and commercial aerospace [7] - Huatai-PB Fund anticipates an increase in focus on consumption and cyclical sectors, driven by improved Q1 A-share company performance and potential recovery in foreign trade and economic expectations [8] - Huitianfu Fund indicates that the timing for technology growth investments is approaching, with the market sentiment having been released after prior adjustments, particularly in the AI industry chain [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints The report focuses on the performance of the ETF fund market, summarizing the performance and capital flows of the ETF fund market, different popular sub - type ETF funds, and innovative theme and sub - industry ETF funds in the past week (June 3 - June 6, 2025) to provide references for investors [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs ETF Market Overall Performance - Market performance: Most A - share - focused ETFs rose this week. TMT ETFs had the largest increase, with an average increase of 3.52% for funds above a certain scale, while consumer ETFs declined, with an average decline of 0.01% for funds above a certain scale [2][5]. - Capital flow: Capital continued to flow into bond ETFs significantly, with a net inflow of 14.418 billion yuan throughout the week. On the contrary, there was significant capital outflow from sectors such as Sci - tech Innovation/ChiNext related index ETFs, Hong Kong stock ETFs, and QDII - ETFs [3][9]. Different Popular Sub - type ETF Funds Market Performance - The report lists the performance of various sub - type ETFs, including broad - based index ETFs (such as ultra - large - cap, large - cap, small - and - medium - cap, etc.), industry - themed ETFs (TMT, mid - stream manufacturing, financial real estate, etc.), SmartBeta ETFs, bond ETFs, QDII ETFs, and commodity ETFs, presenting their latest scale, weekly capital flow, weekly return, weekly trading volume, recent 1 - month return, and year - to - date return [15][21][29]. Innovative Theme and Sub - industry ETF Funds Market Performance - The report shows the market performance of high - attention innovative theme and sub - industry ETFs, including TMT innovation themes, consumer sub - industries, pharmaceutical sub - industries, new energy themes, central and state - owned enterprise themes, stable - growth themes, Hong Kong - related sub - industries, etc., presenting the weekly return, year - to - date return, fund code, representative fund name, weekly return, and latest scale [33][34][35].

Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-frequency Macro Diffusion Index A remains negative, while Index B continues to decline, indicating weak economic growth momentum[1] - The standardized Index B decreased by 0.43, underperforming historical averages, suggesting a weak domestic economic growth rate[1] - Investment and real estate sectors show a decline in activity, while consumer sector performance remains stable[12] Price Trends - Food prices have slightly increased, while non-food prices have slightly decreased; May CPI is expected to show a month-on-month decline of approximately -0.4%[2] - The PPI is projected to decline by about -0.3% month-on-month, with a year-on-year drop to -3.2%[2] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, and the Shanghai Composite Index is high; predictions indicate a rise in the ten-year government bond yield and a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index for the week of June 13, 2025[1][18] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of June 13, 2025, is 2.21%, while the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to be 3,094.40[19]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced narrow fluctuations in the first half of the week, followed by a brief rise and subsequent decline, with overall performance remaining stable and trading volume maintaining at over 1 trillion [1] - The three major indices saw a continuous recovery, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index rising by 1.13%, 1.42%, and 2.32% respectively [1] - The bond market showed a slight decline but remained at a relatively high level, reflecting a decrease in overall market risk appetite [1] ETF Performance - The average increase of all ETFs was 1.47%, with cross-border ETFs performing particularly well, averaging a rise of 2.23% [1] - AI and innovative pharmaceuticals were the main growth drivers, with top-performing ETFs in these sectors showing significant gains, such as the Huabao ChiNext AI ETF rising by 6.57% [2][3] - Conversely, consumer and automotive ETFs experienced notable declines, with the Greater Bay Area ETF dropping by 2.21% [4][5] Fund Flow Trends - The ETF market saw a net outflow of 24.88 billion, with a notable decrease in market activity [6] - Conservative investment preferences led to significant inflows into bond ETFs, with the Short-term Bond ETF attracting 14.69 billion, making it the top inflow [8] - The Shanghai Corporate Bond ETF recorded a weekly trading volume of 363.50 billion, indicating strong interest in bond funds [10] Upcoming ETF Listings - Four new ETFs are set to launch next week, including the Guotai ChiNext New Energy ETF, which tracks a representative index of the new energy industry [11] - The Invesco CSI 300 Enhanced Strategy ETF aims to provide returns exceeding the index through active management, focusing on high-quality core assets [12]

显微镜下的中国经济（2025 年第 20 期） 频率：每周 目前看，5 月供给形势可能仍较为稳定，需求方面出口和消费相对较好，房地 产投资继续拖累投资整体形势。 定期报告 相关报告 1、《央国企动态系列报告之 40 ——并购重组新规出台，央企 上市公司加速新兴产业布局和 "两非""两资"资产剥离》 2025-06-03 2、《美国国内政治加剧对外政 策动荡———国际时政周评》 2025-06-02 3、《PPI 或进一步下探——宏 观与大类资产周报》2025-06-02 张一平 S1090513080007 zhangyiping@cmschina.com.cn 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 06 月 03 日 如何看待 5 月宏观经济形势 正文目录 | 1、开工率 | | --- | | 2、产能利用率…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of income distribution structure in relation to consumption promotion and economic growth, suggesting that improving the redistribution mechanism can stimulate internal consumption and drive economic growth [1][2]. Economic Growth and Income Distribution - The relationship between macro income distribution structure and economic growth is a long-standing research theme, where the distribution of income among enterprises, government, and households influences consumption and investment, thereby affecting economic growth [4]. - A reasonable income structure that covers different income levels can create a diversified consumer market, promoting economic optimization and upgrading [4]. Current State of Income Distribution in China - China's household disposable income as a percentage of GDP is significantly lower than that of major economies, with 60.8% in 2022 compared to Japan (70.3%), Germany (69.5%), and the US (84.9%) [5][6]. - The proportion of disposable income has been persistently lower than the initial distribution since 2000, indicating an unreasonable redistribution mechanism [7]. Policy Recommendations - Policies should focus on increasing transfer payments to households, optimizing government spending structure, and enhancing tax reforms to stimulate consumption [3][11]. - Short-term transfer payments are essential for boosting consumption demand, especially in underdeveloped regions [9][10]. - Long-term improvements in the transfer payment system are necessary to address regional economic imbalances and enhance disposable income [12]. Consumption Structure and Government Spending - The article advocates for increasing government spending in the livelihood sector to shift economic demand towards consumption, particularly in services [16][17]. - The current fiscal expenditure structure favors construction over services, necessitating a reallocation to enhance market supply and related investments [17][18]. Tax Reforms and Pension System - Tax reforms should address structural contradictions in the economy and enhance consumer capacity, including raising the personal income tax threshold and lowering rates for middle and low-income groups [19][11]. - Increasing tax incentives for personal pension accounts can improve the overall pension replacement rate, thereby enhancing current consumption tendencies [20]. Fiscal Policy and Debt Management - There is significant room for increasing government debt and deficit levels, with a current debt ratio of 65.7%, allowing for potential fiscal expansion to support consumption [22][23]. - The article suggests that issuing special government bonds can help bridge funding gaps while balancing consumption and investment needs [25][26].

随着"五一"小长假落下帷幕，消费市场释放的"热力值"令人瞩目：热门景区摩肩接踵，网红餐厅排号叫座，处处洋溢着蓬勃生机。这些鲜活场景，正是消 费为经济注入强劲动能的生动注脚。就在5月7日，中国人民银行、国家金融监督管理总局、证监会协同发力，推出设立5000亿元服务消费与养老再贷款、 下调结构性货币政策工具利率等一系列政策"组合拳"。这些举措将持续激发消费潜能，让百姓的美好生活愿景加速照进现实。 今天，我们邀请到辽宁大学经济学院院长李政教授做客《金融时报》，深入探讨消费为何能成为驱动经济腾飞的核心"引擎"，以及这场消费变革将为普通 人带来哪些实实在在的利好。 李政辽宁大学经济学院院长，二级教授、博士生导师，入选教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划和"兴辽英才计划"文化名家暨"四个一批"人才(领军人才)。 消费是经济发展的强大引擎 当前，我国将促进高水平消费提升至国家战略层面。今年的《政府工作报告》提出大力提振消费、提高投资效益，全方位扩大国内需求。我国提振消费的 潜力和空间巨大，而消费是我国超大规模市场优势的体现，也是我国独特竞争力的来源，有助于推动产业结构转型升级和新质生产力发展。 为了推动高水平消费落地，李政认为，要 ...

Macro and Strategy Research - In April 2025, the industrial added value increased by 6.1% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 5.2% but lower than the previous value of 7.7% [2] - The retail sales of consumer goods grew by 5.1% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 5.5% and previous 5.9% [2] - Fixed asset investment accumulated a year-on-year growth of 4.0%, which is lower than both the expected 4.2% and the previous value of 4.2% [2] - The production growth rate of nearly 80% of industries slowed down due to tariff impacts, with industrial enterprises' export delivery value growth dropping significantly by 6.8 percentage points to 0.9% [2] - The service industry production index grew by 6.0% year-on-year, with modern service sectors like information technology and finance showing relatively fast growth [2] Consumption Trends - The year-on-year growth rate of retail sales of consumer goods slowed down in April, primarily due to a decline in automobile consumption driven by price reductions [3] - The "old-for-new" policy continued to boost furniture and home appliance consumption, while rising gold prices increased jewelry consumption [3] - Service retail sales from January to April grew by 5.1% year-on-year, outpacing the growth of goods retail sales by 0.4 percentage points [3] - May is expected to see an increase in retail sales growth due to holiday consumption and the continuous refinement of national policies to expand domestic demand [3] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment growth slightly decreased in April, with manufacturing investment dropping by 1.0 percentage points to 8.2% year-on-year [4] - Infrastructure investment growth fell by 3.0 percentage points to 9.6%, with central government-led investments in electricity, heating, and water declining [4] - Real estate investment growth saw a year-on-year decline of 1.3 percentage points to -11.3%, with sales in major cities stabilizing [4] - The central bank's further reduction of mortgage rates may not yield immediate effects, and real estate investment growth is expected to remain at a low level until urban renewal projects progress [4] Fixed Income Research - The issuance scale of credit bonds decreased, with corporate bonds seeing zero issuance and a reduction in company bonds, medium-term notes, and directed tools [6] - The net financing amount of credit bonds decreased, with corporate bonds and short-term financing bonds showing negative net financing [6] - The secondary market saw an increase in transaction amounts, with credit bond yields showing differentiation [6] - The overall conditions for a bear market in credit bonds are not sufficient, and long-term yields are expected to enter a downward channel [6] Industry Research - The Guinea government has reclaimed 51 mining licenses, impacting the mining sector [10] - The steel industry faces short-term pressure due to increased rainfall in southern regions, affecting demand [10] - The copper market is influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and export behaviors, with prices expected to fluctuate [10] - The aluminum market is supported by improved US-China trade relations, but domestic demand is entering a low season [10] - The gold market may experience fluctuations influenced by US economic data and geopolitical situations [10] - The lithium market is facing oversupply, with export behaviors impacting demand [10]