亚太股市出现回调 21世纪经济报道记者胡慧茵 上周，亚太股市多个股指扭转多周涨势转跌。其中，越南、韩国和新加坡股市周内均跌超2%。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间7月31日，美国总统特朗普签署行政令，确定了对多个国家和地区征收的"对 等关税"税率，具体税率从10%至41%不等。投资者的紧张情绪再次被挑起，受此消息影响，上周亚太 股市多数下跌。 市场分析认为，上周亚太股市下跌，主要出于对美国关税政策的持续担忧以及持续上涨后的回调。 东南亚股市下跌为主。泰国SET指数周涨0.1%，报1218.33点；越南胡志明指数下跌2.23%或34.17点，报 1496.96点；印尼雅加达综合指数（JKSE）周跌0.08%，报7537.77点；新加坡海峡指数周跌2.52%，报 4153.83点；马来西亚吉隆坡综合指数周跌0.03%，报1533.35点；菲律宾马尼拉指数周跌1.67%或107.05 点，报6306.13点。 中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所国际金融研究室助理研究员倪淑慧向21世纪经济报道记者表示， 以越南股市为例，美越达成贸易协议，再加上二季度较高的经济增速，越南股市已经持续多周上涨，较 4月初已经累计上涨超过40% ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in tariffs by the Trump administration has sparked widespread criticism both domestically and internationally, with concerns about its impact on U.S. competitiveness and consumer costs [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Increases and Economic Impact - The Trump administration has announced higher tariffs on products from Canada and Brazil, as well as copper products, which is expected to erode trust among trade partners [1]. - The U.S. tariff levels are at their highest in over a century, leading to potential costs of hundreds of billions of dollars for U.S. businesses and consumers [1][2]. - Economic reports suggest that the elevated tariff levels could pose upward risks to inflation and downward risks to economic growth in the U.S. [1]. Group 2: Consumer and Business Reactions - The high tariffs are anticipated to significantly increase production and living costs for U.S. businesses and consumers, leading to reduced purchasing behavior among consumers [2]. - Manufacturers are facing considerable uncertainty due to the potential for further changes in U.S. tariff policy, prompting cautious investment and planning strategies [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the ongoing tensions in U.S.-China relations, particularly in the context of trade negotiations and energy imports from Russia, with the U.S. acknowledging its limited leverage over China [1][3][5] - The article discusses the implications of the U.S. Treasury Secretary's admission that the U.S. lacks sufficient leverage to pressure China into abandoning Russian oil, indicating a shift in the dynamics of global trade and energy markets [3][5][11] - It emphasizes that the U.S. has previously had to make concessions in trade negotiations, as evidenced by the outcome of the tariff disputes, which suggests that the notion of a hard decoupling between the U.S. and China is overstated [3][5][11] Group 2 - The article outlines Trump's recent actions to impose new tariffs on several countries, excluding China, which may indicate a strategic approach to isolate China by treating its allies differently [7][9] - It notes the contrasting tariff rates imposed on Pakistan and India, suggesting a shift in U.S. foreign policy aimed at pressuring India to choose sides in the geopolitical landscape [9][11] - The article also highlights the relatively low tariff imposed on Brazil, indicating a calculated decision by the U.S. to avoid escalating tensions with a key member of the BRICS group while focusing on China as the primary target [9][11]

Core Viewpoint - Adidas reported a challenging outlook in its Q2 2025 financial results, primarily impacted by U.S. tariff policies, which are expected to increase costs by approximately €200 million in the second half of the year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Adidas achieved Q2 revenue of €5.95 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.2%, with a gross margin increase of 0.9 percentage points [1] - The revenue growth was largely attributed to reduced product discounts, lower shipping costs, and a strategic move to ship a significant amount of goods to the U.S. before the tariffs took effect [1] - As of the end of June, Adidas's inventory surged by 16%, reaching €5.26 billion [1] Group 2: Impact of Tariffs - The U.S. has established new trade agreements with Vietnam and Indonesia, imposing tariffs of 20% and 19% on imports from these countries, which are key manufacturing locations for Adidas [1] - Adidas CEO Bjorn Gulden expressed concerns that these tariffs could lead to broader inflation, making it difficult to predict the subsequent impact on consumer demand [1] - Other major sports brands, including Nike and Puma, have also reported significant impacts from U.S. tariff policies, with Nike experiencing an 86% year-on-year drop in net profit [2] - Nike executives indicated that U.S. tariffs could increase their costs by approximately $1 billion, highlighting that the sports consumer goods sector may be one of the most affected areas by these policies [2]

Core Insights - The average effective tariff rate imposed by the U.S. on imported goods has reached 18.3%, the highest level since 1934, as of July 31 [1][4][3] - Short-term consumer price increases are expected, with shoe prices potentially rising by 40% and clothing prices by 38% [1][4] - The U.S. economy may experience a slowdown, with GDP growth rates projected to decrease by 0.5 percentage points annually in 2025 and 2026 due to tariff policies [4] Tariff Impact - The new tariffs will lead to an increase in average household spending by $2,400 by 2025, significantly affecting clothing items [4] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise by 0.3 percentage points by the end of 2025 and by 0.7 percentage points by the end of 2026 due to the tariffs [4] Market Reactions - U.S. stock markets have already seen a significant decline, with a total market value loss exceeding $1 trillion in a single day [2][6] - Gold prices surged, with spot gold increasing by 2.22% to surpass $3,360, and COMEX gold futures rising over 2% to exceed $3,400 [2] Export License Delays - There is a significant backlog of thousands of export license applications due to internal chaos within the approval agencies, marking the worst delays in over 30 years [8] - Delays in license approvals are putting U.S. companies at a competitive disadvantage globally [8] International Trade Relations - The U.S. has imposed "reciprocal tariffs" ranging from 10% to 41% on products from 69 trade partners, with specific rates for different countries [5][9] - Despite threats from the U.S. administration, India continues to import cheap oil from Russia, indicating ongoing tensions in trade relations [9]

Group 1 - The U.S. tariff policy is causing significant backlash both globally and domestically, with criticism from Democratic leaders in the Senate [1][2] - Senator Chuck Schumer highlighted that the trade war initiated by Trump is detrimental to American citizens, leading to a 3% decline in business investment in tangible goods due to uncertainty over tariff rates [1] - Price increases on various goods have been noted, with leather prices rising by 40%, fresh agricultural products by 7%, automobiles by 12%, and computers and electronics by 18%, resulting in an estimated additional annual cost of $2,400 for the average American household [1] Group 2 - Senator Maria Cantwell emphasized that the revenue generated from tariffs comes directly from American citizens, warning against being misled by government claims [2] - There are legal challenges regarding the Trump administration's authority to unilaterally raise import taxes without congressional approval, indicating potential constitutional violations [2] - The public has the right to be informed about the implications of these tariffs and the government's actions regarding tax collection [2]

Group 1: Currency Market Impact - The US dollar experienced a significant decline, with the dollar index dropping 1.37%, marking the largest decrease since mid-April [1][2] - The dollar fell 2.23% against the Japanese yen and 1.48% against the euro, indicating a broad weakening of the dollar [2][3] Group 2: Employment Data and Economic Outlook - The US added only 73,000 non-farm jobs in July, significantly below the expected 104,000, with previous months' data revised down by a total of 258,000, the largest downward revision since the pandemic [2][3] - Analysts suggest that uncertainty from US tariff policies is negatively impacting business sentiment and contributing to a deteriorating labor market [2] Group 3: Stock Market Reaction - US stock markets faced a sell-off, with the Dow Jones dropping over 500 points (1.23%), the Nasdaq down 2.24%, and the S&P 500 falling 1.6% [3] - Major tech stocks, including Amazon and Meta, saw significant declines, reflecting broader market concerns [3] Group 4: Cryptocurrency Market Response - The cryptocurrency market also faced a downturn, with Ethereum dropping over 5% and total liquidations exceeding $700 million in the past 24 hours [4] - The market saw over 160,000 liquidations, primarily affecting long positions, indicating a strong negative sentiment [4] Group 5: International Trade and Tariff Reactions - The US announced new tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on various countries, leading to widespread international criticism and concerns about global economic impacts [5][6] - Countries like Germany, Switzerland, and Brazil expressed strong opposition to the tariffs, indicating potential trade negotiations and disputes [6][7]

当地时间8月1日，美国股市收盘下跌，市值蒸发逾1万亿美元。这与美国最新发布的关税声明有关，可 以看出美关税政策的一系列影响正在如"回旋镖"逐个出现。回旋镖一：当地时间8月1日，美国总统特朗 普宣布将解雇美国劳工统计局局长埃丽卡.麦肯塔弗。原因在于美国劳工部发布数据显示，美国7月失业 率小幅上升，同时宣布大幅下调5月和6月就业增长数据。这是第一个预示美国经济面临危险的主要经济 指标。回旋镖二：当地时间8月1日下午，美联储理事阿德里亚娜.库格勒意外宣布辞职，有分析称可能 与不理想的就业数据有关。回旋镖三：耶鲁大学预算实验室表示，美国政府最新宣布的关税税率是近一 个世纪以来的最高水平，今年美国普通家庭将由此损失约2400美元。结合周五发布的美国就业数据，这 是美国家庭将在未来几个月面临更加困难经济状况的最新迹象。(玉渊谭天) ...

中经记者 谭志娟 北京报道 就此，国泰海通证券认为，鲍威尔发言强调美联储独立性，态度偏"鹰"，导致降息预期收窄，预计降息 预期收窄仍将对美国股债市场产生扰动。 关于9月份是否会降息的问题，鲍威尔在记者会上表示，美联储尚未就9月份货币政策作出决定，这取决 于下一次议息会议前公布的就业和通胀等数据。鲍威尔还称，6月份核心PCE可能同比上升2.7%，关税 正在推高一些商品价格，长期通胀预期与2%一致。他还指出，核心通胀中有30%或40%来自关税。 有迹象显示美国通胀压力有所升温：美国6月CPI同比上涨2.7%，前值为2.4%；核心CPI同比上涨2.9%， 前值为2.8%。整体上看，消费者通胀率升至五个月新高，表明关税的影响正在显现，但也大体符合市 场预期，核心通胀甚至略低于市场预期。 此次议息会议过后，市场对美联储降息的预期明显下调。利率期货隐含的9月降息概率从70%降至 44%，年内降息次数也从1.8次降至1.4次。目前市场认为年内更有可能只降息1次。 美联储7月继续保持"按兵不动"。北京时间7月31日凌晨，美联储宣布，将联邦基金利率区间维持在 4.25%—4.50%不变，符合市场预期。这是自去年12月以来，美联 ...

投行：预计美国GDP增长将放缓 金十数据7月31日讯，Julius Baer银行首席经济学家David Kohl表示，美国经济的增长将因私人消费持续 疲软以及房地产和设备投资的谨慎态度而放缓。他指出，第二季度国内生产总值的增长反弹主要是由于 抵消了对第一季度增长造成影响的进口相关不利因素的逆转。他还提到，美国实施的关税政策是造成波 动的主要原因。此外，他表示，由于第一季度库存大幅增加，第二季度库存出现了显著的消耗。尽管美 国经济在第二季度强劲反弹，但掩盖了潜在的疲软态势，比如国内需求的放缓。未来几个季度的增长放 缓将导致2026年GDP增长预测的下调。 ...