Core Insights - The U.S. tariff policy since 2025 has been characterized by broad scope, significant magnitude, and high uncertainty, impacting the global economy profoundly [1] Group 1: Impact on Global Trade and Capital Flow - The U.S. tariff increases have raised import prices, suppressing global trade vitality and leading to a decline in trade volume [2] - The World Bank forecasts global trade growth rates of 1.8% and 2.4% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, down by 1.3 and 0.8 percentage points from earlier predictions [2] - Capital flows have become more diversified due to the turbulence caused by U.S. tariff policies, with Japan's exports to the U.S. dropping by 11.1% year-on-year in May 2025 [2] Group 2: Impact on Global Economic Growth - The U.S. tariff policy has a significant negative effect on global economic growth, with the World Bank predicting a growth rate of only 2.3% for 2025, down from a previous estimate of 2.7% [2] - Rising import prices due to tariffs reduce consumer purchasing power, leading to decreased demand [2] - Trade uncertainties have made businesses more cautious in their investment decisions, resulting in many potential projects being shelved or canceled [2] Group 3: Reshaping International Trade Rules - The U.S. tariff policy challenges existing international trade rules, aiming to reconstruct a trade order favorable to itself under the "America First" principle [3] - Other economies are strengthening existing agreements or exploring new regional trade agreements to protect their interests, leading to a more multipolar development of global trade rules [3] Group 4: Challenges and Opportunities for China - Major challenges for China include rising costs, profit compression, loss of orders, and increased pressure for supply chain relocation [4] - Opportunities for China involve accelerated domestic substitution, innovation-driven development, expansion of the domestic market, and optimization of global market layout [4] Group 5: China's Response to U.S. Tariff Policies - China has demonstrated a firm stance and multi-faceted response strategies against U.S. tariff policies, quickly opposing unreasonable tariffs and implementing countermeasures [5] - Strengthening communication and cooperation with other economies has been a priority, with trade shares in Southeast Asia, Central Asia, and Africa increasing [6] - China has actively called for the role of multilateral mechanisms, opposing protectionism and maintaining the authority and fairness of the multilateral trade system [6] - Overall, China's efforts have significantly enhanced global confidence in addressing U.S. tariff policies and have provided a stabilizing effect on both the Chinese and global economies [6]

Group 1: Characteristics of US Tariff Policy - The US tariff policy since 2025 has shown a broad coverage and significant expansion, imposing a 10% basic tariff on nearly all imported goods, impacting various industries including electronics, machinery, chemicals, and textiles [2][3] - The tariff rates are differentiated based on trade deficit and competitive relationships, with complex exemption processes for even "friendly" countries, indicating a strategic use of tariffs for economic and political goals [3] - The policy exhibits high uncertainty, with frequent adjustments causing confusion among global trade participants, complicating long-term business planning [3] Group 2: Impact on the US Economy - The tariff policy aims to protect domestic industries and reduce trade deficits, but it has led to rising inflation pressures, with the Federal Reserve adjusting GDP growth forecasts down by 0.3 percentage points to 1.4% for 2025 [4] - US companies, including local and foreign firms, face increased import costs disrupting supply chains, with small furniture manufacturers and farmers in the Midwest experiencing severe financial difficulties due to tariff impacts [5] - The US's international credibility is damaged due to erratic policy changes, leading to decreased confidence among global investors and trade partners, reflected in the reduced attractiveness of US Treasury bonds [6] Group 3: Global Economic and Financial Impact - The US tariff policy disrupts global trade and capital flows, raising import prices and suppressing trade activity, with the World Bank predicting a decline in global trade growth rates for 2025 and 2026 [7][8] - The policy negatively affects global economic growth, with rising import prices reducing consumer purchasing power and investment uncertainty leading to cautious business decisions [8] - The tariffs challenge existing international trade rules, prompting a shift towards new regional trade agreements and increasing the influence of emerging economies in global trade rule-making [8] Group 4: Challenges and Opportunities for China - China's export costs rise due to US tariffs, particularly in the automotive sector, where exports to the US reached $17.15 billion in 2024, leading to profit compression and increased logistics costs [9][10] - The demand for Chinese exports in machinery, textiles, and apparel declines as US tariffs diminish price competitiveness, with a potential 20-30% drop in textile exports anticipated with a 10% tariff increase [10] - The pressure to relocate supply chains increases as multinational companies consider moving production to regions with lower tariffs, impacting China's position in global supply chains [11] Group 5: China's Response to US Tariff Policy - China has taken a firm stance against US tariffs, implementing reciprocal measures and engaging in trade talks to maintain economic relations [13] - The country is enhancing trade ties with other economies through initiatives like the Belt and Road, reducing reliance on the US market and expanding its global trade footprint [13][14] - China is advocating for multilateral mechanisms to address US violations of trade rules, strengthening its position in global trade discussions and enhancing its economic resilience [14]

Group 1: Report's Core View - The report focuses on the cotton market, including domestic and international cotton prices, trading volumes, and the impact of US tariff policies. It also analyzes the current situation of the cotton spot and textile markets [1][2]. Group 2: Cotton Market Data Futures Market - CF2509 closed at 13,780 yuan/ton yesterday with a -0.04% daily increase and 13,850 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.51% increase. CY2509 closed at 20,000 yuan/ton yesterday with a -0.17% daily increase and 20,070 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.35% increase. ICE US Cotton 12 was at 68.43 cents/pound [1]. - The trading volume of CF2509 was 170,707 lots yesterday, a decrease of 20,256 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 836,329 lots, a decrease of 5,890 lots. The trading volume of CY2509 was 7,668 lots yesterday, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 22,872 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. Warehouse Receipts - The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 10,067 yesterday, a decrease of 73, and the effective forecast was 262, a decrease of 4. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 2, unchanged, and the effective forecast was 6, a decrease of 4 [1]. Spot Market - The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,120 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of Nanjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,810 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price in Shandong was 15,171 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan from the previous day, and the price in Hebei was 15,130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous day [1]. - The 3128B index was 15,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan from the previous day. The international cotton index M: CNCottonM was 75.96 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.25% from the previous day [1]. Price Spreads - The CF9 - 1 spread was 0, unchanged from the previous day. The spread between Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,340 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan from the previous day [1]. Group 3: Market Situation Domestic Cotton Spot - Cotton spot trading was sluggish, with weak downstream purchasing willingness, and the overall basis remained stable. Different regions and qualities of cotton had different basis quotes relative to CF09 [2]. Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises - The pure cotton yarn market changed little, with still - low demand. The previous increase in cotton yarn prices did not drive speculative restocking, and spinning mill inventories continued to rise. The overall sales of the cotton greige fabric market were weak, with poor sales by weavers and high inventory pressure, and greige fabrics were sold at discounted prices depending on the quantity [2]. US Cotton - ICE cotton futures were closed on Friday due to a US holiday. This week, the market mainly focuses on the impact of US tariff policies on ICE cotton [2]. Group 4: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral outlook, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [5].

工人日报-中工网记者 莫荞菲 热点播报 HOTSPOTS 鲍威尔：面对质疑仍"观望" 6月18日，美联储主席鲍威尔在华盛顿出席记者会。新华社记者 胡友松 摄 降息还是不降息？这是美联储主席鲍威尔今年以来持续面临的问题。 当地时间7月1日，鲍威尔在葡萄牙举行的欧洲央行中央银行论坛上重申，美联储对进一步降息的前景保 持耐心观望态度，但不排除在本月会议上降息的可能性，一切都取决于即将公布的数据。鲍威尔说，美 联储正密切关注关税政策对物价和经济增长的影响，若非担忧关税可能破坏美联储抑制通胀的努力，美 联储可能早已继续推进降息进程。 鲍威尔的这一表态与其此前在美国国会参加听证会时的表态类似。当时鲍威尔也称美联储将采取观望态 度。鲍威尔还说，如果通胀压力仍然得到控制，美联储降息的时刻将会到来，且"宜早不宜迟"。 美联储上一次降息是在2024年12月，在此之后，美联储已经连续4次保持利率不变。美国总统特朗普上 任以来，多次施压美联储降息，但鲍威尔不为所动。 就在近日，特朗普再次喊话鲍威尔降息。6月30日，他在社交媒体上称美国是全球关键利率水平最高的 央行之一，这让美国损失数以千亿计美元。7月1日，他又提到美联储新任主席的备 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 事件： 近期，受美国对外经贸谈判有望达成协议、减税法案推动和三季度降息预期的影响，美股再度创新高。7月9日 美国对多数国家的对等关税豁免即将到期，美国能否如期达成贸易协议？如果不能，特朗普是会选择进一步延 期，还是会选择重新上调对等关税税率？ 核心观点： 结合新闻和美国多位高官表态，我们猜测7月9日前后，美国可能会分类推动对外经贸谈判，以度过7月9日的截 止日期： 第一，7月9日之前，美方重点推动10个经贸协议的谈判，重点是亚洲国家。美越已达成初步贸易协议，印度、 马来西亚、印度尼西亚也有可能率先与美国达成共识。 第二，约10个国家的谈判时间将放宽至9月1日之前，呼应了美国财政部长贝森特和白宫发言人关于截止日不重 要的表态。目 ...

·银河期货：预计贵金属整体仍将维持偏强走势 ·五矿期货：美联储货币政策预期转松背景下重点关注白银做多机会 ·道富投资管理：未来几个季度金价波动将趋缓但仍可继续看涨 ·国投期货：短期贵金属延续震荡关注美国关税重要节点政策变动对市场情绪的影响 ·国投期货表示，隔夜美国公布6月季调后非农就业人口录得14.7万人好于普遍预期，失业率下降0.1个百 分点至4.1%，就业市场保持韧性令美联储9月降息预期有所降温，金价有所回落。短期贵金属延续震 荡，关注美国关税重要节点政策变动对市场情绪的影响。 ·五矿期货表示，"大而美法案"获众议院表决最终通过，美国宽财政政策即将落地实施，而这必定需要 联储宽松的货币政策以配合。在昨夜非农数据超预期的情况下，白银价格仍具备韧性。超预期的非农就 业人数令市场降低了对于后续美联储降息幅度的预期，CME利率观测器显示，当前市场定价联储下半 年分别在9月以及10月议息会议中进行25个基点的降息操作。下半年联储的进一步宽松是具备确定性 的，宽财政需要与宽货币紧密配合。联储将会在七月份议息会议中维持利率不变，但表态将会边际转鸽 派。并在九月份议息会议中进行25个基点的降息操作。在美联储货币政策预期转 ...

贝森特指出，推迟行动增加了美联储日后需要进一步降息的可能性，根据美联储之前的模型， 早就应该降低利率了。 而其他政府官员声称，国会即将通过的减税和支出法案将促进私营部门投资并提振美国经济， 他们认为，尽管关税可能会导致商品价格出现一次性上涨，但从长期来看，它不会导致通胀持 续上升。 此前，特朗普已多次抨击鲍威尔，他表示很快就会宣布接替鲍威尔的人选，并称现在他心里有 三到四位候选人，可能会成为下一任美联储主席。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间周四，美国财政部长贝森特表示， 特朗普政府将在今年秋季集中 精力选出美联储主席鲍威尔的继任者，并称有很多优秀的候选人。 贝森特指出，利率政策由美联储来制定，但如果7月份不降息的话，到了9月份，恐怕降息幅 度可能会更高。 由于失业率较低，通胀高于2%的目标，美联储官员一直不愿将利率从目前的水平下调，他们 想要确实特朗普的关税计划不会进一步推高物价。 稍早公布的数据显示，美国6月非农就业人数大幅超预期，失业率意外下降，这导致美联储7 月降息的希望基本破灭。 贝森特表示，如果美联储官员想在这里犯个错误，不下调利率，那也无所谓。贝森特坚持认为 自美国政府加征关税"迄今为止"并没有加剧通胀 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the evolution of U.S. tariff policies and their impact on the polished synthetic diamond industry, emphasizing the urgency for Chinese companies to internationalize due to domestic market saturation and global opportunities [2][3]. Section Summaries 1. U.S. Tariff Policy Evolution and Impact on Polished Synthetic Diamond Industry - The report defines polished synthetic diamond products and analyzes the core policies affecting the industry [2]. - It highlights the significance of U.S. tariff adjustments on global supply chains and the pressing need for Chinese companies to expand internationally [2][3]. - The research aims to analyze policy impacts and summarize corporate strategies while providing future planning recommendations [2]. 2. Industry Impact Assessment - The report outlines potential future trends in the global polished synthetic diamond industry under various scenarios: optimistic, conservative, and pessimistic [3]. - It assesses the direct impacts of tariff policies on Chinese synthetic diamond enterprises, focusing on cost and market access pressures, as well as supply chain restructuring challenges [3]. 3. Global Market Share of Enterprises - The report presents the market share and rankings of major global synthetic diamond companies based on revenue from 2022 to 2025, with 2025 being a forecasted value [3]. - It includes sales revenue data for these companies over the same period, providing insights into market dynamics [3]. 4. Corporate Response Strategies - The report discusses strategies for companies to transition from export dependence to global capacity layout, including regional production networks and localized technology strategies [4]. - It emphasizes the importance of optimizing supply chain resilience and diversifying markets, particularly in emerging markets [4]. 5. Future Outlook: Restructuring Global Industry Landscape and China's Role - The report provides long-term trend predictions and strategic recommendations for the industry [4]. 6. Current Global Capacity Distribution - The report forecasts global synthetic diamond supply and demand from 2020 to 2031, detailing capacity, production, and utilization trends [4][5]. - It analyzes production trends across major global regions and their market shares [4]. 7. Market Size and Growth Potential in Emerging Markets - The report evaluates the sales volume and revenue of polished synthetic diamonds globally, with projections for 2020 to 2031 [5]. - It analyzes market sizes in key regions and identifies growth potential in emerging markets [5]. 8. Overview of Major Global Producers - The report provides detailed profiles of major producers, including Element Six, Sino-Crystal Diamond, and others, covering their production bases, market positions, and financial performance from 2020 to 2025 [5][6]. 9. Product Type and Application Scale Analysis - The report categorizes synthetic diamonds by type (CVD, HPHT) and application (jewelry, automotive, optical, electronics), providing sales and revenue comparisons [8][9]. - It forecasts sales and revenue trends for different product types and applications from 2020 to 2031 [8].

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed would likely have adopted a more accommodative monetary policy if not for the tariffs imposed by Trump [1] - The Fed has maintained its key lending rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.5% since December of the previous year, with potential for two rate cuts by the end of 2025 according to the dot plot [1] - Market expectations for a rate cut in July are low, with over 76% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged [1] Group 2 - President Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with Powell, calling for rate cuts and suggesting that Powell's actions have been detrimental to the economy [2] - Trump believes that lowering rates to 1% to 2% could save the U.S. up to $1 trillion annually, arguing that the current economic conditions do not warrant high rates [2] - Powell has reiterated his intention to remain in his position and has stated that he cannot be forced to resign by the President [2] Group 3 - Following the Fed's June rate decision, global market risk appetite has improved, but volatility is expected to remain high due to ongoing uncertainties in U.S. tariff policies and inflation risks [3] - The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for July 29-30, with a 23% chance of a rate cut and a 78% chance of a cut in September according to CME Group's FedWatch tool [3] - A potential rate cut to around 2% could have significant and far-reaching impacts on the global economy [3] Group 4 - Historical trends suggest that Fed rate cuts often exacerbate financial market volatility, as lower funding costs may lead to increased acquisition of undervalued assets globally [6] - Recent fluctuations in gold prices indicate that expectations of rate cuts provide important support for non-yielding assets like gold, with COMEX gold prices nearing $3,350 per ounce [6]

Core Insights - The report discusses the evolution of US tariff policies and their impact on the laboratory logistics service industry, highlighting the urgency for Chinese companies to internationalize due to saturated domestic competition and global opportunities [2][3]. Group 1: Tariff Policy and Industry Impact - The adjustment of US tariff policies significantly affects global supply chains, creating both challenges and opportunities for laboratory logistics services [2]. - The report outlines three scenarios (optimistic, conservative, and pessimistic) for the future growth of the global laboratory logistics service industry, projecting varying trends in market size from 2024 to 2031 [2][8]. - The direct impact of tariff policies on Chinese laboratory logistics companies includes increased cost pressures and challenges in market access, necessitating supply chain restructuring [2][3]. Group 2: Market Share and Competitive Landscape - The report provides a detailed analysis of the market share and rankings of major global laboratory logistics service providers from 2022 to 2025, with projections for 2025 included [3][4]. - It identifies the concentration and competitive intensity within the laboratory logistics service industry, highlighting the market shares of the top five producers in 2024 [3][4]. - The report also discusses recent investments and merger activities within the industry, indicating a dynamic market environment [3][4]. Group 3: Company Strategies - Companies are advised to shift from export dependency to a global capacity layout, emphasizing regional production networks and localized technology strategies [3][4]. - The report suggests enhancing supply chain resilience and diversifying markets by exploring emerging markets and differentiating competitive strategies [3][4]. - It highlights the importance of product innovation and building technological barriers to maintain competitive advantages in the laboratory logistics sector [3][4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The report anticipates a reshaping of the global industry landscape, with strategic recommendations for companies to adapt to long-term trends [3][4]. - It emphasizes the growth potential of emerging markets and the need for companies to align their strategies accordingly [3][4].