市场目前预计，北京时间周五公布的美国劳工部更全面的就业报告将显示，7月非农就业人数增加11万 人，失业率预计将从6月的4.1%上升至4.2%。 ADP数据公布后，CME"美联储观察"显示，美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为97.9%（与数据公布前一 致），降息25个基点的概率为2.1%。美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为37.9%（数据公布前为34%），累 计降息25个基点的概率为60.9%，累计降息50个基点的概率为1.3%。 纽约梅隆投资管理首席经济学家Vincent Reinhart指出，美联储启动降息需同时满足三个关键条件：就业 市场显现疲软迹象、通胀确定回归目标路径，以及决策层对上述判断具备充分信心。该机构预计美联储 可能在12月会议降息25个基点，当前至年底前实施降息的概率仍低于50%。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京7月30日电（王姝睿）周三公布的美国ADP全国就业报告显示，美国7月私营部门就业人数 增长超出预期。尽管如此，分析称，美国劳动力市场整体放缓的趋势仍在延续。 数据显示，美国7月ADP就业人数新增10.4万人，预期7.5万人，前值-3.3万人。不同行业之间出现差异 化表现，建筑业就业人数 ...

美国财经网站Investinglive评美国"小非农"：7月ADP就业数据进一步证实了初请数据和非农就业报告所 显示的情况，美国劳动力市场依然保持弹性，几乎没有疲软迹象。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. Q2 GDP data may appear strong on the surface but is likely misleading, driven by a reduction in trade deficits while core areas like consumer spending and business investment show signs of weakness [1][2]. Economic Growth and GDP - UBS predicts a Q2 GDP annualized growth rate of 2.6%, a significant rebound from Q1's contraction of 0.5%, primarily driven by net exports contributing up to 4.1 percentage points to GDP growth [2][5]. - The sharp decline in imports, expected to drop over 25% annually, has reversed the negative impact of net exports from Q1, which had reduced GDP by 4.6 percentage points [2][5]. - Domestic demand and real personal consumption growth have slowed from 2.5%-3% over the past two years to approximately 1.1% in the first half of this year [2]. Consumer Confidence and Spending - Consumer confidence remains fragile, with the World Federation of Large Enterprises' index rising only 2.0 points to 97.2 in July, still significantly below the 2024 average of 104.5 [7]. - The labor market's perception of job availability has declined, indicating potential challenges for consumer spending moving forward [7]. Labor Market Dynamics - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of cooling, with job openings decreasing by 275,000 in June to 7.44 million, and the job vacancy rate falling to 4.4% [8]. - The hiring rate has dropped to 3.3%, nearing the low point of the current expansion cycle, suggesting a slowdown in labor market activity [8]. Long-term Economic Challenges - The long-term outlook for the U.S. economy faces structural challenges, with the Congressional Budget Office estimating that the "Big Beautiful" Act will increase the national debt by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, with only a 0.5% average boost to inflation-adjusted GDP [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The U.S. labor market remains resilient as the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending July 19, 2025, was 217,000, lower than the expected 226,000 and the previous value of 221,000. - Despite Powell completing his remaining term, under Trump's strong intervention, the Fed's monetary policy will gradually shift to a more accommodative stance. Given that international silver prices tend to perform strongly when the Fed's stance is dovish, the current precious metals strategy recommends maintaining a bullish outlook, with a focus on long opportunities in silver. The reference trading range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 760 - 809 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 9095 - 10000 yuan/kilogram [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Precious Metals Prices**: Shanghai Gold (Au) dropped 0.78% to 778.08 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver (Ag) fell 0.55% to 9369.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold declined 0.16% to 3368.10 dollars/ounce, while COMEX Silver rose 0.27% to 39.33 dollars/ounce [2]. - **Other Market Indicators**: The U.S. 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.43%, and the U.S. Dollar Index was at 97.47. Among global stock indices, the Dow Jones Index decreased by 0.70%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.07%, the NASDAQ Index rose by 0.18%, the London FTSE 100 climbed 0.85%, and the Tokyo Nikkei 225 Index advanced 1.59% [2][4]. 3.2 Key Data of Gold and Silver - **Gold Data**: COMEX Gold's closing price (active contract) dropped 0.77% to 3371.30 dollars/ounce, with a 19.07% decline in trading volume to 20.67 million lots, and a 1.22% increase in open interest to 44.85 million lots. SHFE Gold's closing price (active contract) decreased 1.79% to 778.74 yuan/gram, trading volume rose 17.55% to 43.78 million lots, and open interest fell 3.92% to 42.44 million lots. The inventory increased 1.74% to 29.36 tons, and the settled funds outflow was 5.64% to 52.875 billion yuan [6]. - **Silver Data**: COMEX Silver's closing price (active contract) fell 0.59% to 39.29 dollars/ounce, open interest (CFTC latest reporting period: weekly) increased 5.33% to 17.15 million lots, and inventory decreased 0.08% to 15483 tons. SHFE Silver's closing price (active contract) dropped 1.12% to 9386.00 yuan/kilogram, trading volume rose 19.57% to 159.93 million lots, and open interest fell 3.04% to 96.46 million lots. The inventory increased 0.02% to 1188.72 tons, and the settled funds outflow was 4.12% to 24.444 billion yuan [6]. 3.3 Price - Related Charts and Analysis - **Gold**: There are multiple charts showing the relationship between COMEX Gold price and the U.S. Dollar Index, real interest rates, volume, open interest, and the near - far month structure of COMEX Gold and Shanghai Gold, as well as the price difference between London Gold and COMEX Gold, and Au(T + D) and Shanghai Gold [8][11][16][18]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, there are charts depicting the relationship between COMEX Silver price and volume, open interest, the near - far month structure of COMEX Silver and Shanghai Silver, and the price difference between London Silver and COMEX Silver, and Ag(T + D) and Shanghai Silver [27][29][31]. 3.4 Fund Position and Price Relationship - There are charts showing the relationship between the net long positions of COMEX Gold and Silver managed funds and their prices, indicating the influence of fund positions on precious metals prices [40]. 3.5 ETF Holdings - The total holdings of the SPDR Gold ETF increased by 2.29 tons to 957.09 tons, and the total holdings of the SLV Silver ETF remained unchanged at 15207.82 tons [4]. 3.6 Internal - External Price Difference - **Gold**: On July 24, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX price difference was 0.74 yuan/gram (3.23 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA price difference was 1.64 yuan/gram (7.12 dollars/ounce). - **Silver**: The SHFE - COMEX price difference was 346.62 yuan/kilogram (1.51 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA price difference was 372.20 yuan/kilogram (1.62 dollars/ounce) [50].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a resilient consumer spending trend in the U.S., with June retail sales exceeding expectations by growing 0.6%, and core retail sales increasing by 0.5% [3] - Despite a slight decline in consumer confidence, consumers are maintaining spending levels, driven by an "opportunistic" mindset towards purchasing big-ticket items, indicating a robust economic foundation [3] - Labor market data shows strength, with initial jobless claims dropping by 7,000 to 221,000, a three-month low, which supports consumer spending [3] Group 2 - The technical analysis of gold T+D indicates key resistance levels between 778-811 yuan/gram and important support levels between 761-790 yuan/gram [4] - A breakthrough above 785 yuan/gram could open up upward movement towards the critical level of 820 yuan/gram, while a drop below 750 yuan/gram may lead to further declines [4] - Current prices are at a critical decision point, necessitating close monitoring of breakout directions [4]

美联储理事库格勒：美国劳动力市场稳定且具有韧性。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that the number of initial unemployment claims in the U.S. has decreased for five consecutive weeks, reaching the lowest level since mid-April, indicating resilience in the job market [1] - Despite the decline in initial claims, the number of continuing claims is approaching the highest level since 2021, suggesting that unemployed individuals are struggling to find new jobs due to a slowdown in hiring [1] - Economists suggest that the persistently high number of continuing claims may indicate a potential rise in the unemployment rate [1]

Group 1 - Economists have revised their outlook for the U.S. economy, expecting stronger growth and job creation, with a lower risk of recession and milder inflation compared to three months ago [1][2] - The average forecast for inflation-adjusted GDP growth in Q4 is now 1%, up from 0.8% in April, but still half of the January expectation [1][2] - The probability of a recession in the next 12 months has decreased to 33% from 45% in April, but is higher than the 22% in January [1][2] Group 2 - Recent economic data has shown resilience, with average job growth of 150,000 over the past three months and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.1% [2][3] - Core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose by 2.8% year-over-year in May, the lowest in four years, although still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [2][3] - Economists expect that Trump's tariff policies will contribute 0.7 percentage points to inflation by Q4 2025, despite a lower average inflation forecast of 3% for December compared to 3.6% in April [3][4] Group 3 - The labor market outlook has improved since April, with an expected average monthly job increase of 74,070, up from 54,619 in April [4] - Economists predict the unemployment rate will rise to 4.5% by December, down from the previous forecast of 4.7% [4] - The impact of immigration policy changes is expected to offset economic growth contributions from Trump's policies, with a reduction of 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points from GDP growth in 2025 and 2026, respectively [4]

Market Overview - The current gold market is influenced by multiple factors, including Trump's tariff policy providing safe-haven support for gold prices, while a strong dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields limit its upward potential [1] - The complex signals from the U.S. labor market and the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts add further uncertainty to gold price trends [1] - In the short term, gold prices may continue to fluctuate within the current range, with a significant breakthrough above $3,400 being challenging unless there is a major escalation in geopolitical or trade tensions [1] - Investors should closely monitor the upcoming CPI data on July 15 and the Federal Reserve's policy direction, as these factors will provide clearer guidance for future gold price movements [1] Gold Price Analysis - Gold experienced minimal fluctuations, primarily trading within the $3,310-$3,330 range, with a noted drop to $3,310 before rebounding [2] - The daily chart shows two consecutive small bullish candles, with gold still operating below the mid-band, indicating a relatively bullish trend despite the current position [2] - The hourly chart indicates that gold is currently around $3,327, with upward movement supported by the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, and bullish indicators suggesting a preference for long positions [2] Trading Recommendations - A recommendation to buy gold at $3,314-$3,317 with a stop loss at $3,309 and a take profit target of $3,330-$3,335 [3] - A recommendation to sell gold at $3,342-$3,345 with a stop loss at $3,350 and a take profit target of $3,325 [3]

美国劳动力市场仍稳 点评 2025年5月非农就业数据 证券研究报告/宏观事件点评报告 2025年07月04日 分析师:杨畅 相关报告 报告摘要 总体来看,6月美国新增非农总数偏稳、失业率回落,指向劳动力市场仍稳健运行, 但背后仍存三点隐忧需要关注:第一,行业结构分化较大,州和地方政府新增就业分 别创近 29个月、15个月新高,合计大幅增长 8万人,支撑了非农总体增量的 54.4%, 与此同时,服务业新增就业明显放缓,联邦政府就业连续第五个月萎缩。第二,住户 调查数据显示,整体劳动力人口下降 13.0万人,显示劳动力供给明显减少,这将同时 压低失业率的分子与分母,意味着失业率回落一定程度由于劳动力市场整体萎缩。此 外,外国出生的劳动力人数环比下降 13.4万人,连续第三个月回落,显示特朗普政府 强硬移民政策对劳动力供给的压降作用。第三,时薪增速放缓,居民消费需求仍可能 降温。 对美联储而言,这份超预期的非农数据反映出整体经济形势在短期仍有韧性,这可能 会支持他们在7月议息会议上保持按兵不动继续观望,但9月降息成为大概率事件。 数据公布后,FedWatch 显示市场定价美联储在 2025年将降息 2.1 次/53 ...