Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance has significantly reduced expectations for a rate cut in September, with the likelihood dropping from over 65% to around 40% following Chairman Powell's comments [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive decision to keep rates unchanged this year [1]. - For the first time in over 30 years, two Federal Reserve governors voted against the rate decision, advocating for a 25 basis point cut [2]. - Powell indicated that it is premature to assert whether the Fed will cut rates in September, emphasizing the need for more economic data before making a decision [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - The U.S. economy showed signs of slowing growth, with the Fed downgrading its previous assessment of "steady growth" and acknowledging increased risks to employment goals [7]. - The June Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year, with the core CPI increasing by 2.9%, slightly below expectations [8]. - Job vacancies decreased from 7.71 million in May to 7.44 million in June, supporting the view that the labor market is gradually cooling [9]. Group 3: Future Monetary Policy Outlook - The Fed's future monetary policy remains uncertain, heavily reliant on upcoming employment and inflation data [11]. - Powell highlighted the importance of timing in policy actions, warning against acting too late or too early in response to inflation [12]. - Analysts predict that the Fed may delay rate cuts longer than the market expects, with potential cuts occurring later in the year [12][13]. Group 4: Political and Economic Influences - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under scrutiny, with concerns about political interference potentially impacting monetary policy decisions [14]. - Historical precedents suggest that a lack of independence can lead to detrimental economic outcomes, emphasizing the need for the Fed to maintain its autonomy [14].

北京时间7月31日凌晨2点，美联储公布利率决议。 美联储主席鲍威尔在会后新闻发布会上表示，今年上半年经济增长有所放缓，但美联储完全有能力应对 潜在的发展。"与去年的2.5%相比，2025年上半年的增长放缓至1.2%。增长放缓主要反映了消费支出的 放缓。"美联储主席表示，"我们认为，目前的货币政策立场使我们能够及时应对潜在的经济发展。" 谈及关税的影响，美联储主席表示，"更高的关税已经开始体现在一些商品的价格上，但对经济活动和 通货膨胀的总体影响还有待观察。" 联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）以9-2的方式决定维持利率区间在4.25%-4.50%不变。美联储主席鲍威尔 表示，可以在等待关税政策是否推高通胀的同时保持利率稳定。他透露，尚未就9月可能的政策调整"作 出任何决定"。受此影响，美股尾盘跳水，美元指数逼近100大关，国际金价走弱。 美联储重申等待关税影响明朗化 决议声明称，尽管净出口的波动影响了数据，但最近的指标表明，经济活动继续以稳健的速度扩张。失 业率仍然很低，劳动力市场状况稳健，通货膨胀率有所上升。 FOMC重申，寻求在长期内实现最大就业率和2%的通货膨胀率。经济前景的不确定性有所增加，委员 会关注其 ...

市场目前预计，北京时间周五公布的美国劳工部更全面的就业报告将显示，7月非农就业人数增加11万 人，失业率预计将从6月的4.1%上升至4.2%。 ADP数据公布后，CME"美联储观察"显示，美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为97.9%（与数据公布前一 致），降息25个基点的概率为2.1%。美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为37.9%（数据公布前为34%），累 计降息25个基点的概率为60.9%，累计降息50个基点的概率为1.3%。 纽约梅隆投资管理首席经济学家Vincent Reinhart指出，美联储启动降息需同时满足三个关键条件：就业 市场显现疲软迹象、通胀确定回归目标路径，以及决策层对上述判断具备充分信心。该机构预计美联储 可能在12月会议降息25个基点，当前至年底前实施降息的概率仍低于50%。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京7月30日电（王姝睿）周三公布的美国ADP全国就业报告显示，美国7月私营部门就业人数 增长超出预期。尽管如此，分析称，美国劳动力市场整体放缓的趋势仍在延续。 数据显示，美国7月ADP就业人数新增10.4万人，预期7.5万人，前值-3.3万人。不同行业之间出现差异 化表现，建筑业就业人数 ...

美国财经网站Investinglive评美国"小非农"：7月ADP就业数据进一步证实了初请数据和非农就业报告所 显示的情况，美国劳动力市场依然保持弹性，几乎没有疲软迹象。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. Q2 GDP data may appear strong on the surface but is likely misleading, driven by a reduction in trade deficits while core areas like consumer spending and business investment show signs of weakness [1][2]. Economic Growth and GDP - UBS predicts a Q2 GDP annualized growth rate of 2.6%, a significant rebound from Q1's contraction of 0.5%, primarily driven by net exports contributing up to 4.1 percentage points to GDP growth [2][5]. - The sharp decline in imports, expected to drop over 25% annually, has reversed the negative impact of net exports from Q1, which had reduced GDP by 4.6 percentage points [2][5]. - Domestic demand and real personal consumption growth have slowed from 2.5%-3% over the past two years to approximately 1.1% in the first half of this year [2]. Consumer Confidence and Spending - Consumer confidence remains fragile, with the World Federation of Large Enterprises' index rising only 2.0 points to 97.2 in July, still significantly below the 2024 average of 104.5 [7]. - The labor market's perception of job availability has declined, indicating potential challenges for consumer spending moving forward [7]. Labor Market Dynamics - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of cooling, with job openings decreasing by 275,000 in June to 7.44 million, and the job vacancy rate falling to 4.4% [8]. - The hiring rate has dropped to 3.3%, nearing the low point of the current expansion cycle, suggesting a slowdown in labor market activity [8]. Long-term Economic Challenges - The long-term outlook for the U.S. economy faces structural challenges, with the Congressional Budget Office estimating that the "Big Beautiful" Act will increase the national debt by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, with only a 0.5% average boost to inflation-adjusted GDP [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The U.S. labor market remains resilient as the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending July 19, 2025, was 217,000, lower than the expected 226,000 and the previous value of 221,000. - Despite Powell completing his remaining term, under Trump's strong intervention, the Fed's monetary policy will gradually shift to a more accommodative stance. Given that international silver prices tend to perform strongly when the Fed's stance is dovish, the current precious metals strategy recommends maintaining a bullish outlook, with a focus on long opportunities in silver. The reference trading range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 760 - 809 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 9095 - 10000 yuan/kilogram [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Precious Metals Prices**: Shanghai Gold (Au) dropped 0.78% to 778.08 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver (Ag) fell 0.55% to 9369.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold declined 0.16% to 3368.10 dollars/ounce, while COMEX Silver rose 0.27% to 39.33 dollars/ounce [2]. - **Other Market Indicators**: The U.S. 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.43%, and the U.S. Dollar Index was at 97.47. Among global stock indices, the Dow Jones Index decreased by 0.70%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.07%, the NASDAQ Index rose by 0.18%, the London FTSE 100 climbed 0.85%, and the Tokyo Nikkei 225 Index advanced 1.59% [2][4]. 3.2 Key Data of Gold and Silver - **Gold Data**: COMEX Gold's closing price (active contract) dropped 0.77% to 3371.30 dollars/ounce, with a 19.07% decline in trading volume to 20.67 million lots, and a 1.22% increase in open interest to 44.85 million lots. SHFE Gold's closing price (active contract) decreased 1.79% to 778.74 yuan/gram, trading volume rose 17.55% to 43.78 million lots, and open interest fell 3.92% to 42.44 million lots. The inventory increased 1.74% to 29.36 tons, and the settled funds outflow was 5.64% to 52.875 billion yuan [6]. - **Silver Data**: COMEX Silver's closing price (active contract) fell 0.59% to 39.29 dollars/ounce, open interest (CFTC latest reporting period: weekly) increased 5.33% to 17.15 million lots, and inventory decreased 0.08% to 15483 tons. SHFE Silver's closing price (active contract) dropped 1.12% to 9386.00 yuan/kilogram, trading volume rose 19.57% to 159.93 million lots, and open interest fell 3.04% to 96.46 million lots. The inventory increased 0.02% to 1188.72 tons, and the settled funds outflow was 4.12% to 24.444 billion yuan [6]. 3.3 Price - Related Charts and Analysis - **Gold**: There are multiple charts showing the relationship between COMEX Gold price and the U.S. Dollar Index, real interest rates, volume, open interest, and the near - far month structure of COMEX Gold and Shanghai Gold, as well as the price difference between London Gold and COMEX Gold, and Au(T + D) and Shanghai Gold [8][11][16][18]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, there are charts depicting the relationship between COMEX Silver price and volume, open interest, the near - far month structure of COMEX Silver and Shanghai Silver, and the price difference between London Silver and COMEX Silver, and Ag(T + D) and Shanghai Silver [27][29][31]. 3.4 Fund Position and Price Relationship - There are charts showing the relationship between the net long positions of COMEX Gold and Silver managed funds and their prices, indicating the influence of fund positions on precious metals prices [40]. 3.5 ETF Holdings - The total holdings of the SPDR Gold ETF increased by 2.29 tons to 957.09 tons, and the total holdings of the SLV Silver ETF remained unchanged at 15207.82 tons [4]. 3.6 Internal - External Price Difference - **Gold**: On July 24, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX price difference was 0.74 yuan/gram (3.23 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA price difference was 1.64 yuan/gram (7.12 dollars/ounce). - **Silver**: The SHFE - COMEX price difference was 346.62 yuan/kilogram (1.51 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA price difference was 372.20 yuan/kilogram (1.62 dollars/ounce) [50].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a resilient consumer spending trend in the U.S., with June retail sales exceeding expectations by growing 0.6%, and core retail sales increasing by 0.5% [3] - Despite a slight decline in consumer confidence, consumers are maintaining spending levels, driven by an "opportunistic" mindset towards purchasing big-ticket items, indicating a robust economic foundation [3] - Labor market data shows strength, with initial jobless claims dropping by 7,000 to 221,000, a three-month low, which supports consumer spending [3] Group 2 - The technical analysis of gold T+D indicates key resistance levels between 778-811 yuan/gram and important support levels between 761-790 yuan/gram [4] - A breakthrough above 785 yuan/gram could open up upward movement towards the critical level of 820 yuan/gram, while a drop below 750 yuan/gram may lead to further declines [4] - Current prices are at a critical decision point, necessitating close monitoring of breakout directions [4]

美联储理事库格勒：美国劳动力市场稳定且具有韧性。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that the number of initial unemployment claims in the U.S. has decreased for five consecutive weeks, reaching the lowest level since mid-April, indicating resilience in the job market [1] - Despite the decline in initial claims, the number of continuing claims is approaching the highest level since 2021, suggesting that unemployed individuals are struggling to find new jobs due to a slowdown in hiring [1] - Economists suggest that the persistently high number of continuing claims may indicate a potential rise in the unemployment rate [1]

Group 1 - Economists have revised their outlook for the U.S. economy, expecting stronger growth and job creation, with a lower risk of recession and milder inflation compared to three months ago [1][2] - The average forecast for inflation-adjusted GDP growth in Q4 is now 1%, up from 0.8% in April, but still half of the January expectation [1][2] - The probability of a recession in the next 12 months has decreased to 33% from 45% in April, but is higher than the 22% in January [1][2] Group 2 - Recent economic data has shown resilience, with average job growth of 150,000 over the past three months and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.1% [2][3] - Core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose by 2.8% year-over-year in May, the lowest in four years, although still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [2][3] - Economists expect that Trump's tariff policies will contribute 0.7 percentage points to inflation by Q4 2025, despite a lower average inflation forecast of 3% for December compared to 3.6% in April [3][4] Group 3 - The labor market outlook has improved since April, with an expected average monthly job increase of 74,070, up from 54,619 in April [4] - Economists predict the unemployment rate will rise to 4.5% by December, down from the previous forecast of 4.7% [4] - The impact of immigration policy changes is expected to offset economic growth contributions from Trump's policies, with a reduction of 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points from GDP growth in 2025 and 2026, respectively [4]