Core Insights - South Korea's consumer inflation accelerated in October, driven by the depreciation of the won, which increased energy and food costs, reinforcing the central bank's rationale for extending the pause in its monetary easing cycle [1][5][6] Inflation Data - October consumer prices rose by 2.4% year-on-year, up from 2.1% in September, surpassing economists' median forecast of 2.2%, marking the fastest growth since July 2024 [1][4] - Core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy items, increased from 2% in September to 2.2% in October, with both overall and core inflation rates currently above the Bank of Korea's 2% target [1][5] Currency Impact - The won depreciated nearly 1.9% against the dollar in October, reaching its weakest level since March, which contributed to rising import prices for energy and food [6] - The weakening of the won has limited the central bank's options for further monetary easing, as it faces pressures from rising housing prices in Seoul [5][6] Economic Context - The Bank of Korea has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 2.5% during its last three meetings, amid concerns over asset bubbles and financial stability related to household debt [5][6] - Economists are divided on whether the central bank will cut rates in its final policy meeting of the year on November 27, as they assess the stability of housing prices in the capital region [6][7] Recent Economic Performance - The third quarter saw stronger-than-expected economic growth, supported by resilient exports and domestic spending, with GDP growing by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter, exceeding the forecast of 1% [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Daly indicates that while the U.S. economy is in good condition, it is also becoming more vulnerable, with a weakening labor market exacerbating the situation [1] Group 1 - The current state of the U.S. economy is described as good but increasingly fragile [1] - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, which is contributing to economic vulnerabilities [1] - Achieving a 2% inflation rate at the cost of millions of jobs would be unfortunate [1]

美联储戴利：将权衡风险，目前通胀率仍维持在3%左右。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS experts suggest that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is unlikely to lower interest rates again, as they anticipate insufficient medium-term deflationary pressure [1] Group 1: Inflation and Economic Outlook - The SNB believes that the inflation outlook aligns with its price stability target, and the impact of tariff shocks on growth is moderate [1] - In October, Switzerland's inflation rate slightly decreased to 0.1% from 0.2% in September [1] Group 2: Conditions for Negative Interest Rates - The SNB would consider negative interest rates only if three conditions are met: a significant weakening of the Swiss economic outlook, further rate cuts by the European Central Bank that narrow interest rate differentials, and persistent upward pressure on the Swiss franc, which would worsen the medium-term inflation outlook [1]

据悉，欧洲央行在9月发布的季度经济预测显示，明年欧元区消费者价格指数(CPI)将上涨1.7%，较此前 1.6%的预测值更接近目标;但到2027年，通胀率预计为1.9%，低于此前预期。经济增长方面，今年欧元 区国内生产总值(GDP)预计增长1.2%，2026年增速预计为1%。 欧洲央行管委会成员、德国央行行长内格尔(Joachim Nagel)表示，欧元区经济数据与该央行的展望一 致，但政策制定者仍在保留所有选项。 内格尔周一表示，在上周欧洲央行连续第三次会议将存款利率维持在2%之际，"绝对没有理由"调整借 贷成本。他表示："自9月发布最新经济预测以来，数据并未发生根本性变化。12月我们将根据新的预测 在会议上基于数据做出决定。因此，我们保留所有选项，我认为在诸多不确定性面前这是最恰当的做 法。" 尽管通胀率在2%的目标值附近徘徊，但面对美国加征关税和地缘政治紧张局势，欧元区经济展现出的 韧性超出了预期。欧元区第三季度0.2%的经济增长超出预期，优于预期的10月采购经理人(PMI)指数也 预示着2025年最后三个月将迎来良好开局。不过，部分偏鸽派的政策制定者担忧经济增长可能不及预 期，这将增加通胀率长期低于2% ...

【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 美联储12月降息25个基点的概率为69.8% 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储12月降息25个基点的概率为69.8%，维持利率不变的概率为30.2%。美联 储到明年1月累计降息25个基点的概率为56.6%，维持利率不变的概率为20.2%，累计降息50个基点的概 率为23.2%。 美国财长贝森特周日表示，若通胀持续回落，美联储应继续降息。美联储在9月和10月已实施两次25个 基点的降息，而最新报告显示美联储青睐的PCE通胀率维持在2.7%。贝森特在接受CNN采访时称美国 经济正处于"转型期"，并抱怨特朗普政府削减政府支出的努力"未被注意到"——因财政年度于9月30日 结束，恰逢政府停摆开始。他称整体经济"状况良好"，但部分领域"已陷入衰退"，并敦促美联储降低抵 押贷款利率以终结"衰退"。 11月3日，人民币兑美元中间价报7.0867，上调13点。 来源：新浪网 ...

Group 1 - The Japanese yen stabilized and rebounded against the US dollar after the new finance minister indicated that the government is closely monitoring foreign exchange market fluctuations [1][2] - The USD/JPY exchange rate reached a near nine-month low before slightly rebounding, hovering around 154.20, with Tokyo's core CPI for October rising 2.8% year-on-year, indicating inflation remains above target levels [2] - The depreciation of the yen has become a focal point in political discussions, with a 4% decline against the dollar over the past month, marking the worst monthly performance since July [2] Group 2 - Market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December have decreased, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut dropping from 91.1% to 74.7% [3] - The US 10-year Treasury yield remained around 4.0989%, close to a three-week high, reflecting a slight increase from the previous day's close [3] - Other currencies showed mixed performance, with the euro at 1.1572 against the dollar, while the British pound hovered around 1.31440 amid political pressure, and both the Australian and New Zealand dollars experienced declines [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 3.75% to 4.00%, marking the second rate cut in 2025, following a previous cut in September. This decision reflects internal divisions within the Fed regarding future monetary policy direction [3][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the interest rate was widely anticipated by the market, despite internal disagreements among officials regarding the extent of the cut [3]. - Two officials opposed the 25 basis point cut, with one advocating for a 50 basis point reduction to expedite policy easing [3]. - The Fed's internal divisions between hawkish and dovish perspectives are becoming more pronounced, indicating uncertainty in future rate cuts [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, with employment growth slowing and a slight increase in the unemployment rate. Recent indicators align with these trends [4]. - The latest data shows that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in September increased by 3% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, while the core CPI rose by 3% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month [4]. Group 3: Future Rate Cut Expectations - The Fed's October policy statement did not provide guidance on the December monetary policy path, leaving uncertainty regarding future rate cuts [4]. - The Fed's dot plot suggests the possibility of three rate cuts within the year, with December potentially being the last opportunity for a cut [4]. - Following Fed Chair Powell's hawkish remarks, market expectations for a December rate cut diminished significantly [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 3.75% to 4.00%, marking the second rate cut in 2025, aligning with market expectations [1] - There is internal division within the Federal Reserve regarding the rate cut, with some officials advocating for a more aggressive approach [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the interest rate was influenced by the lack of updated macroeconomic data due to the U.S. government shutdown [1] - The Fed plans to end its balance sheet reduction (QT) on December 1 [1] - The current economic indicators suggest moderate economic expansion, with a slight increase in unemployment and rising inflation rates [2] Group 2: Future Rate Cut Expectations - The Fed's October policy statement did not provide guidance on the December monetary policy path, leaving uncertainty about future rate cuts [2] - The dot plot from September indicated the possibility of three rate cuts this year, suggesting December could be the last cut [2] - Fed Chair Powell's comments indicated that the December rate cut is not guaranteed, reflecting significant internal disagreement on future policy actions [2][3] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following Powell's hawkish remarks, U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Nasdaq up 0.55% and the Dow Jones down 0.16% [3] - Market expectations for a December rate cut diminished after Powell's statements, highlighting the impact of the government shutdown on economic data availability [3]

新华社北京10月30日电 美国联邦储备委员会29日宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间再次下调25个基点到3.75%至4.00%之间。美联储主席鲍威尔当天表示， 美联储12月货币政策会议进一步降息并非板上钉钉。 政府"停摆"导致多项官方经济数据发布推迟，而"停摆"前发布的数据显示美国经济活动增长势头可能比预期更为强劲。鲍威尔因此表示，美联储12月货币政 策会议进一步降息并非板上钉钉，情况"远非如此"。 Bell Production pin a well a works of the contribution in the many of the many of the many of the many of the many of the world be California ar 19 are in the re all of the 198 1010 10月29日，美国联邦储备委员会主席鲍威尔在华盛顿出席记者会。新华社记者胡友松摄 美联储委员会当天结束为期两天的货币政策会议。其决策机构联邦公开市场委员会在会后发表声明说，现有指标显示，美国经济活动一直以温和的速度扩 张，今年就业增长放缓，失业率略有上升，通胀率 ...