Core Viewpoint - The employment data released today is significant but will not alter the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates this week, with expectations for one rate cut later this year [1] Group 1: Employment Data - The employment market is showing signs of slowing down from previously strong levels, as indicated by the substantial revisions in today's employment data [1] - The Federal Reserve needs to further assess the trends in hiring before making any decisions [1] Group 2: Inflation Risks - The greater risk this week lies in inflation rates, which currently face dual risks of either continuing to decline or potentially accelerating again [1] Group 3: Tariff Implications - If tariff policies have an impact, the Federal Reserve cannot ignore their effects, and businesses will require time to adjust prices in response to tariff increases [1]

Group 1 - Domestic gold prices remain stable, with the highest price at 998 CNY/gram and the lowest at 969 CNY/gram, maintaining a price difference of 29 CNY/gram [1] - Major brands such as Lao Miao, Liufu, and Zhou Dafu have reported stable prices, while Zhou Shengsheng and Lao Fengxiang have seen slight increases of 4 CNY and 1 CNY respectively [3][4] - The gold recovery price has seen a slight increase of 1.5 CNY/gram, with significant price differences among brands [4] Group 2 - International gold prices showed an upward trend, reaching a peak of 3314.65 USD/ounce before closing at 3289.02 USD/ounce, with a daily increase of 0.42% [6] - The rise in gold prices was influenced by concerns over changes in U.S. tariff policies, particularly the increase of tariffs on Canada to 35% [6] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September are low, with only 41.2% anticipating a reduction, which may limit gold price increases [6]

丹麦 银行分析师在报告中称，美国7月非农就业数据将为下周美债市场走势定下基调。疲软的劳动力市 场报告将加大美联储9月份降息的压力，尽管周四的个人PCE通胀略高于预期。这一数据显示，"将通胀 率降至2%以下或接近2%是多么困难"。 ...

Group 1 - The resilient U.S. labor market is now the primary determinant of monetary policy, indicating that strong employment data in July could eliminate expectations for a rate cut in September and reduce the likelihood of further easing this year [1] - Powell emphasized that the next steps for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will depend on overall economic data, acknowledging reasons for easing but highlighting the importance of the unemployment rate [1][2] - The unemployment rate has remained stable between 4.0% and 4.2% for over a year, suggesting the economy is at full employment, making it difficult to justify a rate cut [2] Group 2 - Following the FOMC decision, market reactions included a drop in U.S. stocks, rising bond yields, and a strengthening dollar, reflecting investors' interpretation of Powell's signals [2] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is now seen as a coin toss, indicating a shift in market expectations towards only one rate cut this year [2] - Powell's comments on inflation, with core CPI at 2.9% and core PCE at 2.8%, support a moderate tightening stance [2] Group 3 - Price risks remain due to the delayed effects of tariffs, with Powell suggesting that if tariffs continue to push prices higher, the Fed may need to wait until the impact subsides before easing, potentially delaying any rate cuts until next year [3] - Market expectations for rate cuts have significantly decreased, with projections dropping from over 130 basis points to around 35 basis points for the year [3][4] Group 4 - The futures curve indicates that by May next year, when Powell's term ends, only 65 basis points of rate cuts are priced in [4] - While it is unlikely that there will be no rate cuts during Powell's remaining term, it is not impossible [5]

澳新银行：预计泰国央行今年可能再降息两次 金十数据8月1日讯，澳新银行研究经济学家在一份报告中写道，鉴于价格压力减弱和增长前景疲弱，泰 国央行今年可能会再降息两次。泰国7月份的消费者价格可能会进一步下降。这反映出原材料食品和能 源价格下跌，以及基数效应的拖累。泰国6月份通胀率较上年同期下降0.25%，核心通胀率涨1.06%。澳 新银行预计泰国7月份的总体通胀率将下降0.5%，核心通胀率将上升0.93%。 ...

分析：要让美联储降息，失业率得上升才行 金十数据8月1日讯，据外媒分析报道，鲍威尔本周多次对记者表示，他认为目前衡量经济健康状况的最 佳指标是失业率。他指出，6月份的失业率为4.1%，在过去一年里几乎没有变化，而通胀率则离美联储 的目标更远了一些。因此，他表示，大多数决策者认为这一情况说明没有理由调整利率。与此同时，鲍 威尔拒绝预先承诺9月降息，而周四的通胀数据又高于预期，给何时恢复降息的前景蒙上了阴影。美国 劳工统计局周五将公布7月份的失业率数据，美联储不太可能在劳动力市场没有恶化的情况下降息，要 让美联储降息，失业率得上升才行。 ...

新华财经东京7月31日电（记者刘春燕）日本央行7月31日在结束为期两天的货币政策会议后宣布，继续 将政策利率维持在0.5%左右不变。这也是该央行自今年1月将政策利率从0.25%上调至0.5%水平后连续 四次按兵不动。 今年1月，日本央行将政策利率由0.25%提高至0.5%左右。3月，日本央行以美国关税政策可能导致全球 经济不确定性升高为由，决定维持利率不变，5月和6月的货币政策会议继续维持这一利率水平。 日本央行同日还发布经济与物价形势展望报告，将2025年日本去除生鲜食品后的核心消费价格指数同比 涨幅预测值从此前的2.2%上调至2.7%。 日本央行行长植田和男在当天下午的记者会上表示，日本国内排除各种暂时性因素后的通胀率在走强， 重返通缩的可能性有所下降。未来日本央行将密切关注影响工资和物价上涨循环机制的各种因素，适时 调整货币政策，包括择机加息。 （文章来源：新华社） ...

南非央行行长：南非货币政策委员会更希望通胀率稳定在3%。 ...

日本央行同日还发布经济与物价形势展望报告，将2025年日本去除生鲜食品后的核心消费价格指数同比 涨幅预测值从此前的2.2%上调至2.7%。 日本央行行长植田和男在当天下午的记者会上表示，日本国内排除各种暂时性因素后的通胀率在走强， 重返通缩的可能性有所下降。未来日本央行将密切关注影响工资和物价上涨循环机制的各种因素，适时 调整货币政策，包括择机加息。（完） 今年1月，日本央行将政策利率由0.25%提高至0.5%左右。3月，日本央行以美国关税政策可能导致全球 经济不确定性升高为由，决定维持利率不变，5月和6月的货币政策会议继续维持这一利率水平。 新华社东京7月31日电（记者刘春燕）日本央行7月31日在结束为期两天的货币政策会议后宣布，继续将 政策利率维持在0.5%左右不变。这也是该央行自今年1月将政策利率从0.25%上调至0.5%水平后连续四 次按兵不动。 ...

Core Insights - The survey conducted by Bank of America reveals that Generation Z adults are becoming increasingly frugal in their dating habits due to rising living costs influenced by tariffs under the Trump administration [1][2] - Over 50% of respondents reported spending no money on dates, while among those who do spend, 25% of males and 30% of females spend less than $100 per month [1] - More than half of the respondents are saving more money, and 24% are paying off debts to improve their financial situations [1] Financial Attitudes - 55% of respondents feel that their earnings are insufficient to live the lifestyle they desire, and a similar percentage lacks enough emergency savings to cover three months of expenses [2] - The proportion of Generation Z respondents receiving financial support from parents and family has decreased from 46% to 39% over the past year, with the amount received also declining [2] Economic Independence - Despite facing economic challenges and high daily expenses, Generation Z is striving for financial independence [3]