黄金配置比 = (地缘风险指数 × 0.3 + 通胀率 × 0.5) ÷ 10 结语：黄金仍是动荡年代的"压舱石" 在美联储政策转向、地缘裂痕加深、去美元化加速的三重驱动下，2024年黄金极可能突破历史新高。但投资者需牢记： 当市场在"恐惧"与"贪婪"间摇摆时，黄金始终是照亮资产迷雾的永恒火炬。 示例：当地缘风险指数60、通胀率4%时，黄金占比≈(60×0.3+4×0.5)/10=2.2% 均线策略：当金价低于200日均线5%时加倍定投 波动率策略：黄金30日波动率＞20%时暂停买入 上海金溢价：2023年均值7美元/盎司，峰值达35美元 操作方式：境内买入现货→境外期货对冲 数字货币替代：若比特币ETF获批，或分流20%避险资金 央行抛售潮：全球外储黄金占比达15%，历史新高 技术突破：核聚变等新能源技术降低工业用金需求 基准情景：年均涨幅4-6%，突破2500美元 绿色科技冲击：氢能经济成熟可能削弱黄金工业属性 新货币体系：多极储备货币体系巩固黄金锚定地位 历史规律：美元指数每下跌1%，金价平均上涨0.8%（2000-2023年数据） 当前形势：美联储暂停加息，美元指数从114高位回落至105，支撑金价 ...

Economic Data Releases - Germany's final CPI for May will be released at 14:00 [1] - France's final CPI for May will be released at 14:45 [1] - Eurozone's adjusted trade balance for April and industrial production for April will be released at 17:00 [1] - Canada's wholesale sales for April will be released at 20:30 [1] - The initial value of the US one-year inflation expectations for June and the preliminary Michigan consumer sentiment index for June will be released at 22:00 [1] - The total number of oil rigs in the US for the week ending June 13 will be released at 01:00 the next day [1]

今日重点关注的财经数据与事件：2025年6月13日 周五 ① 14:00 德国5月CPI月率终值 ② 14:45 法国5月CPI月率终值 ③ 17:00 欧元区4月季调后贸易帐 ④ 17:00 欧元区4月工业产出月率 ⑤ 20:30 加拿大4月批发销售月率 ⑥ 22:00 美国6月一年期通胀率预期初值 ⑦ 22:00 美国6月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值 ⑧ 次日01:00 美国至6月13日当周石油钻井总数 相关链接 ...

欧洲央行管委Muller：通胀率近期可能维持在2%左右。 ...

智通财经6月12日电，欧洲央行执行委员会成员施纳贝尔表示，欧洲央行能够容忍通胀率与 2% 的目标 水平存在小幅偏差。 ...

欧洲央行管委穆勒：通胀率近期可能维持在2%左右。 ...

欧洲央行执委施纳贝尔：由于能源价格基数效应，欧元区的总体通胀率将在2026年第一季度进一步缓 解，预计中期内将回归2%的目标水平。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Simkus indicated that the medium-term inflation rate may fall below the target level [1] Group 1 - Simkus expressed concerns regarding the inflation outlook, suggesting that it might not meet the ECB's target in the medium term [1] - The statement reflects ongoing challenges in achieving stable inflation rates within the Eurozone [1] - This perspective may influence future monetary policy decisions by the ECB [1]

Group 1 - Deutsche Bank analysts predict that the softening labor market in the UK will lead the Bank of England to reverse its restrictive monetary policy, with unemployment expected to rise above the central bank's modal forecast [1] - The latest data shows a decrease of 109,000 jobs in May, marking the most significant decline since May 2020, indicating a concerning trend in the labor market [1] - Deutsche Bank forecasts that the Bank of England's interest rate will drop from the current 4.25% to 3.5% by the end of this year, and further to 3.25% in the first quarter of 2026 [1] Group 2 - Nomura Oriental International Securities expects Chinese equity assets to outperform overseas markets in the second half of the year due to strong domestic policy expectations and better liquidity conditions in the Asia-Pacific emerging markets [2] - The firm highlights that the second half of 2025 will be a crucial period for market direction, with increased volatility anticipated [2] - Stable dividend stocks and specific technology growth sectors are expected to be more suitable for the market environment in the latter half of the year, alongside significant potential in domestic consumption and technology sectors [2] Group 3 - A Reuters survey indicates that over 60% of economists predict the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least twice this year, with many expecting a rate cut as early as September [3] - Economists forecast U.S. economic growth of 1.4% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, consistent with previous predictions [3] Group 4 - Morgan Stanley reports that the net long position in U.S. Treasury bonds has reached its highest level since May 5, with a 2 percentage point decrease in short positions [4] Group 5 - Fitch Ratings states that the depreciation of the U.S. dollar has provided some emerging market central banks with the space to accelerate interest rate cuts, alleviating the burden of dollar-denominated debt [5] Group 6 - Fitch also notes that global public finances will continue to face pressure in 2025, particularly in developed markets, due to rising defense spending, interest costs, and demographic trends [6] - The median government debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to rise slightly from 54.1% at the end of 2024 to 54.5% by the end of 2025 [6] Group 7 - Morgan Stanley has raised the target price for Pop Mart to HKD 302, citing the company's IP diversity and operational capabilities as drivers of sustainable growth, suggesting that its long-term scaling potential has not yet been fully priced in [7] Group 8 - Morgan Stanley believes that long-term Japanese government bonds are attractive to foreign investors, although the timing of any adjustments to the bond issuance scale by the Japanese government remains uncertain [8] Group 9 - Goldman Sachs economists predict that tariffs may raise U.S. commodity prices and overall inflation in the coming months, with core CPI inflation expected to reach 3.5% by the end of the year, up from 2.8% in April [9] Group 10 - CITIC Securities anticipates that investor sentiment will remain stable in June, although there may be a cautious outlook among investors following the extreme performance of small-cap and thematic stocks in April and May [10] - Huaxi Securities suggests that the main market theme remains unclear, advocating for a rotational approach to trading in the technology sector [10] Group 11 - CICC reports that the Chinese consumption market is exhibiting characteristics of "consumption stratification" rather than simple "consumption downgrade," with consumers willing to pay for quality at lower prices and justified premiums [11] - The report emphasizes the importance of a stable macroeconomic foundation for structural highlights in the consumption market [11] Group 12 - China Galaxy Securities recommends focusing on stablecoin concept stocks with good growth prospects and reasonable valuations, as regulatory developments are expected to boost investor confidence in the stablecoin market [12] - Haitong Securities highlights the importance of flexibility in asset operations amid increased volatility and suggests looking for structural opportunities in sectors like AI technology and military industry [12]

法国央行：预计2025年HICP通胀率为1.0%（之前预估1.3%）。 ...