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十大顶级经济学家展望2026
21世纪经济报道· 2026-01-01 10:36
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for China to build a robust monetary and capital market to bridge innovation and consumption, driving the economy into a new cycle of high-quality development [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Development Strategies - China should advance the construction of a manufacturing powerhouse, a consumption powerhouse, and a financial powerhouse characterized by a full-chain technology and industrial layout [3]. - The future growth model will rely on multiple pillars, supported by a stabilized real estate market and ongoing efforts to reduce "involution" [5]. Group 2: Innovation and Consumption - There is an expectation for consumption to reverse its trend by 2026, driven by a strengthened innovation-driven layout [4]. - The dual focus on "starry sea" innovation and "daily necessities" improvement in people's livelihoods is crucial for China's economic future [7]. Group 3: Capital Market and Investment - A capital market that supports China's technological future must establish a full-chain capital support ecosystem, including a "National Basic Research Fund" to attract long-term capital from insurance and pension funds [17]. - The article highlights the importance of stabilizing residents' income growth expectations to boost consumption and break the cycle of pessimism [21]. Group 4: Global Economic Context - The global economic growth is expected to remain between low and moderate levels by 2026, influenced by the actions and policies of the United States, such as potential sanctions or trade restrictions [13]. - As the competition between China and the U.S. in technology continues, other economies may find it increasingly difficult to navigate independently and may need to adopt a "bet on both sides" strategy [19].
冰雪为媒 两岸青年共赴青春之约
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-01 10:31
Group 1 - The core theme of the event is to enhance cross-strait youth exchanges through winter sports, with the "Taiwan Youth Ice and Snow Season" set to kick off in December 2025 in Beijing [1] - The "2025 Tsinghua University Taiwan Student Winter Camp" will involve 25 Taiwanese students and Tsinghua students engaging in various activities to deepen mutual understanding and friendship [1] - The event aims to showcase the academic atmosphere, development vitality, and cultural richness of the mainland to Taiwanese youth [1] Group 2 - Taiwanese youth participated in a technology exploration journey in Beijing, experiencing advanced technologies such as autonomous driving [2] - The experience included riding fully automated vehicles, which impressed many Taiwanese students and changed their perceptions of Beijing's technological advancements [2] - Participants also engaged in ice sports activities, enhancing their understanding of mainland sports culture [2] Group 3 - The ice and snow season activities will run from December 2025 to February 2026, with approximately 2,000 youths from both sides expected to participate, including around 1,000 from Taiwan [3] - Activities will include visits to historical sites and cultural experiences, allowing participants to appreciate the unique charm of Beijing [3]
透过岚图,看中国汽车高端化的“十四五”答卷
Core Viewpoint - By 2025, China's automotive industry has transitioned from "following" to "leading," with a focus on product and technological innovation, exemplified by Dongfeng Motor's high-end smart new energy brand, Lantu Auto, which has become a flagship for high-end Chinese brands [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - In 2025, Lantu Auto achieved cumulative deliveries of 150,169 vehicles, marking an 87% year-on-year increase, solidifying its position as the leading high-end new energy brand among state-owned enterprises [1]. - Lantu Auto has established a comprehensive product matrix with three flagship models: Lantu Dreamer, Lantu Taishan, and Lantu Pursuit L, becoming the first high-end new energy brand in China to mass-produce SUVs, MPVs, and sedans [5][11]. Group 2: Product Innovation - The Lantu Dreamer has consistently ranked as the top-selling high-end MPV, with an average selling price exceeding 400,000 yuan, indicating strong market penetration [5]. - Lantu Taishan achieved over 5,000 deliveries within 26 days of its nationwide launch, demonstrating high market recognition and establishing itself as a benchmark in the high-end new energy SUV market [7]. - The Lantu Pursuit L, launched on December 10, 2025, completes Lantu's flagship lineup and features advanced technologies such as Huawei's intelligent driving and smart cockpit systems [9]. Group 3: Technological Development - Lantu Auto emphasizes self-research and collaboration to build a technological "moat," with nearly 5,400 patents, of which 85% are invention patents, leading the new energy vehicle sector in patent growth [12][14]. - The company has developed a fully autonomous intelligent electric architecture (ESSA) and a new generation of intelligent multi-mode hybrid technology, showcasing its commitment to innovation and high-quality development [14]. Group 4: International Expansion - Lantu Auto has entered over 40 countries and regions, including key markets in Europe, the Middle East, and Central Asia, reflecting its global strategy and alignment with national initiatives [15][16]. - The brand has successfully launched in the Middle East, with product and cultural exports, demonstrating confidence in Chinese culture and innovation [18].
2026大势前瞻丨15位智库学者寄语“十五五”开局之年(三)
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-01 05:22
"十五五"时期在基本建成社会主义现代化国家的战略安排中处于承上启下的关键地位。"十四五"时期,我们坚持以高质量发展为主线,把握新发展阶段, 贯彻新发展理念,构建新发展格局,已经打下坚实基础,实现了良好开局。"十五五"时期自然要乘势而上、全面发力,为如期完成第一阶段发展目标奠定 更加坚实的基础。对基本实现社会主义现代化发展目标的锚定,决定了"十五五"时期我国发展思路和基本政策的稳定性、延续性。这是"十五五"规划建 议"未变"的地方。 同时,"十四五"时期我国经济社会结构又发生了若干新的变化。具体如:房地产市场深度调整,城市化步伐放缓;新一轮科技革命和产业变革深入发展, 国内主导产业更替面临空档;"老龄化""少子化"快速发展,其经济社会影响日益显露;世界进入新的动荡变革期,来自外部的风险明显增加;等等。"十 五五"规划建议坚持"问题导向",充分吸纳、反映了党和政府的相关战略调整和政策应对。这是"十五五"规划建议的"变化"之处,也是今后一段时期我们 需要密切关注的发展新动向。 2026年是"十五五"的开局之年。将全面落实党中央、国务院的重大战略部署,如推动全面创新,发展新质生产力,推动城市化健康发展,加快建设老年友 ...
习近平致信祝贺科技日报创刊40周年强调努力讲好中国科技创新故事 为建设科技强国凝聚更多智慧和力量
Xin Hua Wang· 2026-01-01 05:10
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the 40th anniversary of the Science and Technology Daily, emphasizing its significant role in promoting the Party's innovative theories, interpreting technology policies, reporting technological achievements, and popularizing scientific knowledge over the past four decades [1]. Group 1 - The Science and Technology Daily was founded on January 1, 1986, and has developed into a comprehensive media organization with various platforms including newspapers, journals, websites, and mobile applications [1]. - Xi Jinping sent a congratulatory letter, acknowledging the newspaper's contributions to the Party and the nation [1]. - The letter encourages the publication to continue promoting the spirit of scientists and to effectively communicate China's technological innovation stories [1].
2026大势前瞻丨15位智库学者寄语“十五五”开局之年(二)
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-01 03:56
Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the resilience of the global economy despite uncertainties, particularly due to unilateral tariffs from the U.S. and the need for countries to adapt strategically [2][3] - The global South has contributed nearly 80% to world economic growth, significantly outpacing developed economies, highlighting its importance in maintaining multilateral trade systems [3][7] - China's trade with the global South has seen a year-on-year increase of over 10%, indicating a strategic shift away from reliance on markets like the U.S. [7][8] Group 2 - China's proactive fiscal policies are set to support high-quality development as part of the 14th Five-Year Plan, focusing on expanding domestic demand and enhancing public services [5][10] - The emphasis on building a modern industrial system is crucial for improving productivity and fostering innovation, which is essential for achieving long-term economic goals [11][13] - The collaboration between fiscal and monetary policies is expected to enhance macroeconomic regulation, driving sustainable economic growth and increasing market vitality [13]
习近平致科技日报创刊40周年的贺信
Xin Hua She· 2026-01-01 02:57
Group 1 - The core message of the article is a congratulatory note from Xi Jinping on the 40th anniversary of the Science and Technology Daily, emphasizing its role in promoting the Party's innovative theories and reporting on scientific achievements [1] - The article highlights the importance of adhering to the political direction of socialism with Chinese characteristics and encourages the publication to innovate in its methods of communication [2] - It calls for the promotion of the spirit of scientists and the need to effectively tell the story of China's technological innovation, reflecting the voices of scientific workers [2] Group 2 - The article expresses a desire for the Science and Technology Daily to contribute to achieving high-level technological self-reliance and strength, thereby gathering more wisdom and power for the nation [2]
习近平致信祝贺科技日报创刊40周年强调:努力讲好中国科技创新故事 为建设科技强国凝聚更多智慧和力量
Xin Hua She· 2026-01-01 02:50
习近平强调,新起点上,希望你们深入学习贯彻新时代中国特色社会主义思想,坚持正确政治方 向,创新载体方式,弘扬科学家精神,努力讲好中国科技创新故事,反映科技工作者心声,为实现高水 平科技自立自强、建设科技强国凝聚更多智慧和力量。 科技日报创刊于1986年1月1日,经过40年发展,已成为拥有报纸、期刊、网站、客户端等传播平台 的综合性传媒机构。 新华社北京1月1日电 在科技日报创刊40周年之际,中共中央总书记、国家主席、中央军委主席习 近平发来贺信,向报社全体同志表示祝贺。 习近平在贺信中指出,40年来,科技日报围绕党和国家中心工作,在宣传党的创新理论、解读科技 政策、报道科技成就、普及科学知识等方面发挥了积极作用。 习近平致信祝贺科技日报创刊40周年强调 努力讲好中国科技创新故事 为建设科技强国凝聚更多智慧和力量 ...
奋楫争先,以实干担当回应时代强劲号角
Guang Xi Ri Bao· 2026-01-01 02:42
Group 1 - The New Year speech by President Xi Jinping emphasizes the importance of innovation for high-quality development, which has invigorated the technology sector in Guangxi [3] - The Guangxi International Expo Bureau plans to host the 23rd East Expo, focusing on enhancing the role of small and medium-sized enterprises in the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 [2] - The Guangxi Pinglu Canal construction is over 90% complete, with plans to make it a landmark project for high-level opening and development [1] Group 2 - The Guangxi Agricultural and Rural Affairs Department aims to drive green agricultural development through technological innovation, particularly in seed industry and smart agriculture [3] - The Guangxi Automobile Group is focusing on breakthroughs in new energy vehicles and smart connected technologies, contributing to the high-quality development of the automotive industry [4] - The local tax authority is committed to optimizing tax services and supporting the construction of a unified national market, reflecting a proactive approach to regional economic development [5]
杨德龙:2026年牛市进入新阶段 把握科技创新带来的投资机会
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-01 02:28
专题:2026年度投资策略|顶级基金公司、基金经理展望马年投资机会 当前市场,若将4000点之前视为第一阶段,即市场确立牛市趋势,则4000点之后便进入第二阶段。在第 一阶段,行情呈现显著分化,银行与科技板块主导2025年市场,而众多传统板块未涨,形成典型的哑铃 型结构。 去年底,我发布的2025年十大预言,与当时市场主流观点存在差异。目前回顾,预言基本得到验证:人 民币汇率方面,当汇率贬至7.4时,市场普遍预期继续贬值,我则提出人民币将对美元升值。目前汇率 已回升至7.045左右,且升值趋势有望延续。对于美股与A股、港股,当时市场对美股乐观,对A股、港 股悲观。我指出美股见顶风险加大,而A股与港股处于全球估值洼地,在稳增长政策发力、资本市场支 持力度加大、居民储蓄向资本市场转移的共同推动下,将迎来牛市行情。这一判断也已基本验证。关于 国际金价,我认为在美元超发、信用受疑的背景下,以美元计价的黄金价格必然上涨,并预言未来金价 突破5000美元甚至1万美元/盎司只是时间问题。近日金价已突破4500美元/盎司,逼近5000美元关口, 初步验证该观点。 去年十大预言的关键词是"反转",市场走势与前几年相比发生扭转并 ...