经济观察网据央视新闻客户端消息，7月31日，国家发展改革委召开2025年上半年发展改革形势通报 会。 加大力度稳投资促消费，拓展投资增量，强化政府投资项目全周期管理，着力激发民间投资活 力，高质量推动"两重"建设，提质增效实施"两新"政策，激发市场活力提振消费。 因地制宜培育壮大新质生产力，推动"人工智能+"行动走深走实，推进低空经济高质量发展，激发 数字经济创新活力。 纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，破除"内卷式"竞争，深入推进招标投标制度改革，规范地方招商 引资行为，推动要素顺畅流通，促进民营经济健康发展、高质量发展。 会议强调： ...

Group 1 - The meeting emphasized the need for the development reform system to fully implement the decisions and deployments of the Central Committee and the State Council, focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, while strengthening domestic circulation and optimizing external circulation to achieve annual targets and tasks of the 14th Five-Year Plan [2][3] - Key areas of focus include conducting analysis and research on major changes, important indicators, and significant issues, with an emphasis on stabilizing employment and expanding domestic demand [2] - The meeting highlighted the importance of promoting investment and consumption, enhancing government project management, and stimulating private investment to boost market vitality and consumption [2][4] Group 2 - The meeting called for the cultivation and strengthening of new productive forces tailored to local conditions, promoting the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative, and advancing the high-quality development of the low-altitude economy to stimulate innovation in the digital economy [2][4] - It was noted that there is a need to deepen the construction of a unified national market, eliminate "involution" competition, and promote the smooth flow of factors to support the healthy and high-quality development of the private economy [2][3] - The meeting also stressed the importance of expanding high-level opening up, balancing "bringing in" and "going out," and collaboratively building the Belt and Road Initiative with high quality [3]

Economic Outlook - The meeting emphasized the need to maintain a stable yet progressive approach to economic work, focusing on employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations [1][3] - China's economy is showing a steady improvement, with key economic indicators performing well, despite facing risks and challenges [1][2] GDP Performance - In the first half of the year, China's GDP reached 66,053.6 billion yuan, growing by 5.3% year-on-year [2] - The high-tech industry, representing new productive forces, saw a significant increase of 9.5% in value added [2] Policy Measures - The meeting highlighted the importance of maintaining policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight in economic policies [3] - There is an expectation for more proactive fiscal policies and a stable monetary policy to support economic growth [3][4] Local Government Debt Management - The meeting addressed the need to manage local government debt risks and prohibited the creation of new hidden debts [5] - Emphasis was placed on the effective use of government bonds and improving funding efficiency [5] Market Competition and Industry Adjustment - The meeting discussed the need to optimize market competition and address issues of disorderly competition among enterprises [7] - Policies aimed at curbing low-price competition and managing excess capacity in key industries will continue [7] Urban Renewal Initiatives - The meeting reiterated the importance of high-quality urban renewal, aligning with previous central government directives [8][9] - Future policies are expected to support sustainable urban renewal models and attract social capital for participation [9]

Core Viewpoint - The State Council meeting emphasizes the importance of implementing Xi Jinping's speech on the economic situation in the first half of the year and the work for the second half, focusing on enhancing responsibility and mission to ensure economic recovery and growth [1] Economic Policy and Strategy - The meeting highlights the need to strengthen the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies and tackle challenges to achieve annual development goals [1] - There is a call for deeper reforms in key areas to stimulate internal economic growth and improve the business environment [1] Risk Management and Safety - The meeting stresses the importance of balancing development and safety, ensuring that systemic risks are avoided, and implementing detailed measures for disaster response and public safety [1]

今年上半年，中国国内生产总值同比增长5.3%，在全球主要经济体中名列前茅；在国际贸易形势日趋复杂、全球 经济承压的当下，凸显出中国经济的强大活力和韧性。 【文/观察者网 王恺雯】据新华社消息，中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年 经济工作，为完成全年经济社会发展目标任务、实现"十四五"圆满收官指明了前进方向。 报道称，尽管存在挑战，但此次会议总体释放出积极信号。中国迄今为止成功抵御了来自美国的关税冲击。而得 益于强劲的出口表现和政府对消费品的补贴，中国今年上半年经济增速达到了5.3%，已超出全年增速5%左右的目 标。 7月29日，国际货币基金组织（IMF）发布其旗舰报告《世界经济展望》更新内容。中国的经济增长预期调升幅度 最大，今年的经济增速预期从4%上调至4.8%。IMF指出，这一调整反映了中国今年上半年强于预期的经济活动， 以及中美关税大幅下调的影响。 2025年5月13日，浙江省金华市，新能源汽车自动化生产线正在高效运转。 东方IC 值得注意的是，此次政治局会议未提及"降准降息"。分析指出，中国经济在年中交出了一份不错的成绩单，短期 内降息的概率较低。 高盛中国经济学家王立 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the positive assessment of the overall economic situation in the first half of the year, with GDP growth at 5.3% year-on-year, exceeding expectations [16][15][4] - Domestic demand has become the main driving force for economic growth, contributing 68.8% to GDP growth, with final consumption expenditure contributing 52% [20][4] - The fiscal policy has been proactive, with significant progress in local debt management, achieving nearly 90% of the bond issuance target by mid-year [30][4] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the need for detailed implementation of policies in the second half of the year, focusing on maintaining policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight [5][38] - The government aims to achieve a 5% economic growth target by increasing actual output rather than introducing new policies [5][38] - The report outlines the importance of the "14th Five-Year Plan" completion and the preparation for the "15th Five-Year Plan," which will guide long-term policy directions [49][5] Group 3 - The report discusses the focus on expanding consumer demand and improving social welfare, including the introduction of a child-rearing subsidy of 3,600 yuan per child per year [44][45] - It highlights the significance of technological innovation in leading new productive forces and the need to govern disorderly competition in industries [46][47] - The capital market is expected to maintain a stable upward trend, with efforts to enhance its attractiveness and inclusivity for investors [48][5]

Policy Insights - The recent Politburo meeting emphasized a "restrained" policy approach, allowing for a temporary hold on demand-side policies due to the unexpected resilience of the economy in Q2[4] - The focus has shifted from "intensifying implementation" to "sustained efforts and timely enhancements," indicating a more cautious stance on macroeconomic policies[7] - The meeting notably reduced attention on real estate, with only a mention of "high-quality urban renewal," reflecting a shift in policy focus[8] Economic Strategy - Demand-side policies will now prioritize service consumption growth rather than just goods consumption, addressing potential risks of over-subsidizing durable goods[8] - Supply-side policies are also restrained, focusing on calibrating expectations around "anti-involution" measures, which aim for fair competition rather than blanket production cuts[10] - The current macroeconomic policy aims to balance cyclical pressures and structural issues, with a clear strategy to support industrial upgrades and consumption expansion over the long term[15] Capital Market Reform - The meeting highlighted the need to enhance the attractiveness and inclusivity of domestic capital markets, with a focus on improving the quality of A-share listed companies[16] - As real estate income growth slows (2.9% in 2023 compared to 8.7% from 2015-2021), the capital market is seen as a key avenue for increasing household asset income[16] - Optimizing the quality of listed companies is viewed as essential for stabilizing the capital market and boosting long-term consumer spending[16] Risk Factors - There are uncertainties regarding overseas economic policies that could impact domestic economic strategies in the second half of the year[18] - The economic fundamentals in Q3 face downward pressure, with potential challenges in export growth and ongoing tariff negotiations[18]

麦麟玥 宏观分析师 执业编号：S1500524070002 邮 箱： mailinyue@cindasc.com 宏观研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | [Table_A 解运亮 uthor宏观首席 | ] 分析师 | | --- | --- | | 执业编号：S1500521040002 | | | 联系电话：010-83326858 | | | 邮 | 箱： xieyunliang@cindasc.com | 证券研究报告 | 图 1：去产能的真正含义是压低产能增速，而非产能绝对规模下降 4 | | --- | | 图 2：反内卷下，产能过剩下行拐点或已到来，有望为资本市场带来一轮牛市 5 | [Table_Title] 未提新刺激，政策主线转向"反内卷" ——逐句解读 7.30 政治局会议通稿 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 7 月 31 日 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127 号金隅 大厦B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.co ...

宏 观 研 究 "反内卷"系列 2025 年 07 月 31 日 反内卷：为何需关注地方政府？ ——"反内卷"系列之七 中央财经委会议提出"统一政府行为尺度"，为"反内卷"赋予新内涵。相比过往，本轮 "内卷" 中地 方政府为何成为主要驱动因素，其行为逻辑具体表现在哪些制度性层面？系统分析，供参考。 一、本轮"反内卷"，有何不同？政策更聚焦地方政府行为规范。 相较于 2015 年中央财经领导小组第十一次会议，2025 年中央财经委尤其强调对地方政府行为的规范。 对比两份通稿，后者更侧重规范地方政府行为，提出"规范地方招商引资"等具体举措。同时，会议将"五 统一、一破除" 调整为 "五统一、一开放"，核心变化体现在地方政府行为规范尺度与对外开放维度。 上述差异的形成，一方面源于 2015 年产能过剩的全局性特征，另一方面与本轮 "内卷式" 竞争中地方 政府的深度参与直接相关。2015 年问题源于 "四万亿" 刺激后上游产业过度投资及当时的房地产下行 压力；《求是》文章指出，本轮地方政府的行为表现为打造政策洼地、盲目上马项目、设置市场壁垒。 地方政府 "内卷式" 竞争首先体现在产业规划高度重合，尤其集中在医药生物、 ...

【环球网财经综合报道】7月30日，中共中央政治局召开会议，决定今年10月召开党的二十届四中全会，研究关于制定"十五五"规划的建议。会议 分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。会议释放财政政策、货币政策、资本市场、内需提振、风险化解等多方面的重大信号，为下半年经 济工作指明方向。 会议对当前经济形势作出积极判断，认为"今年以来我国经济展现强大活力和韧性，同时面临不少风险挑战"，强调要"正确把握形势，增强忧患意 识，坚持底线思维，用好发展机遇、潜力和优势，巩固拓展经济回升向好势头"。会议对下半年有效释放内需潜力、坚定不移深化改革、稳住外贸 外资基本盘、持续防范化解重点领域风险、扎实做好民生保障工作、充分调动各方面积极性等方面作出具体部署。 信号一：对上半年经济判断积极 下半年继续巩固向好 会议指出，当前我国经济运行依然面临不少风险挑战，要巩固拓展经济回升向好势头。中国银河证券首席经济学家章俊解读，上半年GDP同比增速 5.3%，好于市场预期，经济基本面韧性十足；但有效需求不足、物价低位运行及"卡脖子"问题等深层次挑战将持续。广开首席产业研究院研究员马 泓认为，商业周期尚处于去库存阶段，需更多增量政策激活经济， ...