金十数据6月25日讯，据Natixis投资管理公司调查显示，约70%的策略师认为股票和债券市场的波动性 将继续升高。在接受调查的策略师中，超过十分之七（71%）的人认为股市波动性将继续升高，68%的 人认为债市的波动性也将继续升高。不过，71%的Natixis投资管理公司策略师表示，他们正在积极寻找 股市波动中的机会，74%的债券策略师也是如此。 机构调查：股市和债市波动性将继续升高 ...

Group 1 - The primary risk identified in the survey is the volatility in the U.S. Treasury market, with 85% of strategists categorizing it as a moderate to high concern [1] - Two-thirds (62%) of European strategists believe that investing in U.S. Treasuries is no longer as safe as it used to be, while only a quarter (24%) of U.S. strategists share this view [1] - The survey includes insights from 34 market strategists, portfolio managers, research analysts, and economists from Natixis Group and its affiliates [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's policy board member, Naoki Tamura, emphasizes the need to restore the damping function of the Japanese government bond market amid high global trade uncertainties and a transformative global economy [1] Group 1 - The current global economic environment is characterized by significant uncertainties in trade [1] - There is a recognition of a "systemic transformation" occurring in the global economy [1] - The urgency to restore the functionality of the Japanese government bond market is highlighted as a critical measure [1]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has announced a significant liquidity injection through a 300 billion MLF operation, indicating a supportive stance towards the market while avoiding excessive monetary easing [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Actions - The PBOC will conduct a 300 billion MLF operation with a one-year term, marking the fourth consecutive month of excess MLF renewals since March [1]. - The net injection for June has reached 318 billion, reflecting the central bank's intention to provide liquidity support during a traditionally tight period [1]. - The MLF net injection scale is decreasing, suggesting a cautious approach by the PBOC to avoid overly loose monetary conditions while allowing for potential future bond purchases [1]. Group 2: Market Impact - The recent liquidity measures are expected to support the bond market, alleviating short-term pressures from government bond issuances and maturing interbank certificates [2]. - The bond market has shown a "bull steepening" trend, with short-term rates declining more rapidly due to increased purchases of short-term government bonds by major banks [2]. - The overall positive trend in the bond market is expected to continue, driven by weak economic fundamentals, reinforced policy easing expectations, and sustained liquidity support [2].

Core Viewpoint - The convertible bond market in China has entered a technical bull market, with the China Convertible Bond Index reaching a new high of 439.86 points on June 25, marking a cumulative increase of over 20% since September of the previous year [1][4][2]. Market Performance - The China Convertible Bond Index has shown a strong upward trend, reaching its highest level since June 26, 2015 [2]. - The convertible bond market has benefited from a supportive policy environment and a strong performance in the A-share market since September 24 of the previous year, which has boosted investor confidence [4][5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The convertible bond market is experiencing a shrinking supply, leading to increased scarcity and heightened demand from investors [1][4]. - Despite concerns over credit risk and defaults in the first half of 2024, the overall risk has significantly decreased, allowing for a recovery in investor confidence and capital inflow into the convertible bond market [5][6]. Fund Performance - Convertible bond funds have performed well, with several funds achieving year-to-date returns exceeding 8% as of June 24 [5]. - The scale of convertible bond ETFs has increased significantly, with the Bosera China Convertible Bond ETF reaching over 400 billion yuan, a fivefold increase from the beginning of 2024 [5][6]. Investor Behavior - Investors are exhibiting a tendency to take profits amid the strong performance of the convertible bond market, reflecting a rational approach to risk management [6][7]. - The current high valuation of the convertible bond market, with a median conversion premium rate close to 30%, raises concerns about potential price corrections if underlying stock prices fluctuate [8]. Future Outlook - The future performance of the convertible bond market may increasingly depend on the performance of underlying stocks, as high conversion premiums could lead to significant risks if stock prices decline [8][9]. - The ongoing supply contraction in the convertible bond market may lead to increased difficulty in selecting bonds, potentially reducing the market's attractiveness and liquidity [9].

Group 1 - The company bond ETF (511030) has increased by 0.02%, with the latest price at 106.08 yuan, and its scale has reached a new high of 20.869 billion yuan [1] - The company bond ETF has seen continuous net inflows for 13 days, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 1.538 billion yuan, totaling 5.3 billion yuan, averaging 408 million yuan per day [1] Group 2 - The national debt ETF for 5 to 10 years (511020) has risen by 0.01%, with the latest price at 117.56 yuan, and its scale is now 1.432 billion yuan [4] - The national development bond ETF (159651) is currently in a stalemate, priced at 106.18 yuan, with a scale of 1.003 billion yuan [4] - The central bank has conducted a 300 billion yuan MLF operation, with a net injection of 118 billion yuan this month [4] - In June, the government bond net issuance has reached 1.2 trillion yuan, with significant participation from major banks in the primary bidding [4] Group 3 - The recent stock market has performed well, with the A-share index reaching a year-to-date high, and banks listed in both A and H shares hitting new highs [5] - The company continues to favor long-term city investment bonds and bank capital bonds with yields above 2%, while also focusing on the central bank's liquidity behavior [5] - The bond ETF trio from Ping An Fund includes the company bond ETF (511030), national development bond ETF (159651), and national debt ETF for 5 to 10 years (511020), covering various durations to assist investors in navigating the bond market cycle [5]

Core Viewpoint - The China Convertible Bond Index reached a new high of over 438.92 points on June 24, marking the highest level since June 26, 2015, indicating a significant recovery in the convertible bond market [1] Group 1 - Since September of the previous year, the cumulative increase of the China Convertible Bond Index has exceeded 20%, signaling a technical bull market in the convertible bond sector [1]

日本央行审议委员田村直树：日本国债市场的功能已有所改善，但仍然偏低。 ...

日本央行审议摘要：一位成员表示，包括国际会议等场合在内，全球国债市场的形势已成为讨论的主要 议题之一，需关注海外市场动向可能蔓延至日本的可能性。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：国债市场在经历巨大压力下依然正常运作。 ...