Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Inflation drives the continuous rise in yields, but it should be based on the premise that real economic growth is not significantly affected. The domestic bond market is under pressure this week, and the reasons may be the unfulfilled market expectation of interest rate cuts and the inflation rebound indicated by price indicators. It is necessary to observe the feedback of real growth indicators on the price rebound [2]. - Three important Fed officials expressed a dovish attitude towards a December rate cut this week. The 10-year US Treasury yield is approaching the key level of 4.0% again. In the early stage of the Fed's rate cut cycle, this is an important threshold for the US Treasury yield. Although the medium - term outlook for the decline in US Treasury yields is positive, due to the uncertainty of US tariff policies, the 10 - year US Treasury yield may rebound above 4% even if it falls below this level in the near term [2]. - The consumer season in the US has started. If US residents' consumption remains strong, it may affect the decline in inflation in November and December [2]. Summary by Directory Inflation and Bond Market Pressure - **Domestic Bond Market Pressure**: The domestic bond market is under pressure this week. The 10 - year yield of China Treasury bonds exceeded 1.85% on Thursday for the first time since October this year but fell back on Friday. The market's unfulfilled expectation of interest rate cuts and the inflation rebound indicated by price indicators may be the reasons. Widespread policy rate cuts are not an urgently needed tool at present, and the continuous rise in yields driven by inflation should be based on the premise that real economic growth is not significantly affected [2]. - **US Treasury at a Key Point**: Three Fed officials expressed a dovish attitude towards a December rate cut. The 10 - year US Treasury yield is approaching 4.0% again. In the 2007 rate cut cycle, the 10 - year US Treasury yield only remained stably below 4% after the federal funds rate dropped to a very low level. The US Treasury still faces the risk of fiscal imbalance, and changes in US tariff policies may impact the US fiscal balance in the short term. The consumer season in the US has started, and strong consumer demand may affect the decline in inflation in November and December. In the medium term, the outlook for the decline in US Treasury yields is positive, but there is a risk of rebound [2]. - **Production Material Price Index Rebound**: This week, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.26% week - on - week and 23.72% year - on - year; the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables increased by 1.23% week - on - week and 15.88% year - on - year. The price index of edible agricultural products decreased by 0.10% week - on - week and 3.92% year - on - year in the week of November 21. The domestic cement price index decreased by 0.06% week - on - week; the South China Iron Ore Index increased by 0.85% on average week - on - week; the operating rate of coking enterprises with a capacity of over 2 million tons increased by 1.57% week - on - week; the inventory index of rebar decreased by 3.77% week - on - week; the price index of rebar increased by 0.88% week - on - week; the blast furnace operating rate of 247 domestic steel mills decreased by 1.34% week - on - week. The production material price index increased by 0.20% week - on - week and decreased by 2.72% year - on - year in the week of November 21. The average prices of Brent and WTI crude oil futures decreased by 0.95% and 1.38% week - on - week respectively. The average daily trading volume of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities from November 1 - 25 this year was about 243,000 square meters per day, compared with about 390,000 square meters per day in November 2024 [2]. High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - **High - Frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Comparison**: Multiple charts show the relationship between high - frequency data and important macroeconomic indicators, such as the relationship between domestic industrial added value and PPI year - on - year, the relationship between the 10 - year US Treasury yield and the federal funds rate, etc. [8][19] - **US and European Important High - Frequency Indicators**: Charts show indicators such as the US weekly economic indicators and real economic growth rate, the number of initial jobless claims and the unemployment rate in the US, etc. [89] - **Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data**: The seasonal trends of high - frequency data are presented, with all seasonal trend indicators being month - on - month increases and the unit being %. [103] - **High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen**: The year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen are shown. [151]

Group 1: Market Overview - Overall funding remains stable with slight price fluctuations. This week, R001 closed at 1.43% (previous value 1.39%), DR001 at 1.30% (previous value 1.32%), R007 at 1.52% (previous value 1.50%), and DR007 at 1.47% (previous value 1.44%) [1] - The central bank conducted a net reverse repo of -1642 billion yuan this week, with a total reverse repo injection of 15118 billion yuan and maturity of 16760 billion yuan. Additionally, a 10000 billion yuan MLF operation was conducted on November 25, with an excess of 1000 billion yuan [1] - The bond market sentiment is weak, with long-end yields rising significantly. The 1-year government bond yield increased by 0.09 basis points to 1.40%, the 10-year yield rose by 2.46 basis points to 1.84%, and the 30-year yield increased by 2.75 basis points to 2.19% [1] Group 2: Certificate of Deposit (CD) Trends - CD yields have slightly increased, with the 3-month yield rising by 0.15 basis points to 1.58%, the 6-month yield up by 0.50 basis points to 1.62%, and the 1-year yield also up by 0.50 basis points to 1.64%. The spread between the 1-year CD and R007 narrowed by 2.20 basis points to 11.78 basis points [2] - There was a net repayment of CDs this week, with a net financing of -2425 billion yuan compared to -3732 billion yuan previously. The issuance rates for 1-year CDs were 1.65% for joint-stock banks, 1.75% for city commercial banks, and 1.83% for rural commercial banks [2] - The average issuance term of CDs slightly decreased to 6.9 months from 8.2 months previously, with 3-month CDs issued at 1075.6 billion yuan, 6-month CDs at 1445.1 billion yuan, and 1-year CDs at 1046.3 billion yuan [2] Group 3: Government Bond Issuance - This week, the net issuance of government bonds was 391 billion yuan, with local bonds net issuance at 3262 billion yuan, totaling a net issuance of 3653 billion yuan. The total net payment was 3391 billion yuan [2] - Next week, the expected net issuance of government bonds is -1338 billion yuan, with local bonds expected to net issue 605 billion yuan, resulting in a total net financing of -733 billion yuan and a total net payment of -1092 billion yuan [2] Group 4: Interbank Market Activity - The interbank leverage ratio slightly increased, with an average daily volume of pledged repo transactions at 7.09 trillion yuan (previous value 7.29 trillion yuan) and an average daily leverage ratio of 107.21% (previous value 107.10%) [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the bond market, highlighting a slight decline in long-term bond yields and the impact of recent monetary policy actions on market sentiment [3][5]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The central bank conducted a 3,013 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with 3,750 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 737 billion yuan [3]. - The money market is described as balanced and slightly loose, with the DR001 rate around 1.30% and DR007 at approximately 1.47% [3]. - The stock market experienced a slight increase, influenced by the announcement of a reduction in the interest rates for three-year large-denomination certificates of deposit by major banks [5]. Group 2: Bond Market Trends - The 10-year government bond yield opened at 1.845% and fluctuated slightly, closing at 1.829% after a day of trading [5]. - The article notes that the 10-year government bond yield increased by less than 2 basis points over the week, indicating a stronger performance in cash bonds compared to futures [6]. - Major banks have reportedly suspended the sale of five-year large-denomination certificates of deposit, with three-year rates dropping to between 1.5% and 1.75% [5]. Group 3: Interest Rate Movements - The weighted average rates for various repurchase agreements showed a slight increase, with RO1 at 1.43% (up 51 basis points) and R007 at 1.52% (unchanged) [4]. - The article provides a detailed table of interest rates for different maturities, indicating a general downward trend in yields for government bonds [10].

Group 1 - The net asset value of public funds in China has increased from 33.12 trillion yuan at the end of April to 36.96 trillion yuan by the end of October, setting a new historical record [1] - As of the end of October, there are 165 public fund management institutions in China, including 150 fund management companies and 15 asset management institutions with public qualifications [1] - Open-end funds account for 90% of the total public fund scale, with significant growth in money market funds and QDII funds, while equity funds and mixed funds have seen a decline [2] Group 2 - The scale of money market funds increased by 3.86 trillion yuan and the number of shares increased by 3.85 trillion shares compared to the end of September [2] - Despite a decrease in the scale of equity funds in October, they remain a focus for public fund institutions, with 64 new funds launched in this category during the month [2] - Bond funds experienced a more significant contraction in October, with a decrease of 1.04 trillion yuan in scale and 1.34 trillion shares compared to the end of September [3]

1. Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: November 28, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao (Macro Precious Metals), Huang Wenxin (Treasury Bonds and Container Shipping), Nie Jiayi (Stock Index Futures) [3] 2. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 3. Core Views - The domestic fundamental situation has been weakening marginally since mid - year, especially the accelerating decline in the investment sector, which still poses a significant drag on credit expansion. The monetary policy has begun to send signals of easing, and the positive factors for the bond market are accumulating. However, in the short term, it is difficult for the easing to materialize, and the bond market is in a period of shock and energy accumulation. Investors should pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low prices. In the short term, during the data vacuum period and with important meetings in December approaching, the market is waiting for policies. After the tax period this week, the capital market may become looser, which will support the bond market. Although the new regulations on fund sales fees bring short - term uncertainties, they do not affect the long - term allocation behavior of institutions. The negative impact of the central bank's bond - buying is unproven, and as long as the easing orientation remains unchanged, the downward trend of interest rates continues and the adjustment risk is limited. The impact from the sentiment provides a good opportunity for layout [11][12]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Situation**: Concerns about the new regulations for public funds still exist, and the bond market continues to fluctuate weakly [8]. - **Interest Rate Bonds**: The yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds across all maturities have risen comprehensively, with the long - end yields rising by about 1bp. As of 16:30 pm, the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond 250016 reported 1.845%, up 1.1bp [9]. - **Funding Market**: The inter - bank funding market is loose and is expected to cross the month smoothly. The central bank made a net injection of 564 million yuan today. The inter - bank funding sentiment index is stable, and the funds are becoming looser. The weighted overnight interest rate of inter - bank deposits fluctuates narrowly around 1.31%, the 7 - day interest rate rises 2.8bp to 1.45%, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuates narrowly around 1.61 - 1.63% [10]. - **Conclusion**: The positive factors for the bond market are accumulating, but in the short term, it is difficult for the easing to materialize. The bond market is in a period of shock and energy accumulation. Investors should pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low prices. After the tax period this week, the capital market may become looser, which will support the bond market. The impact of the new regulations on fund sales fees is short - term, and the negative impact of the central bank's bond - buying is unproven. As long as the easing orientation remains unchanged, the downward trend of interest rates continues and the adjustment risk is limited. The impact from the sentiment provides a good opportunity for layout [11][12]. 4.2 Industry News - The China Council for the Promotion of International Trade will organize a Chinese business delegation to visit the United States in early December. The delegation will involve various fields and will conduct extensive exchanges with the US business and political circles [13]. - The National Development and Reform Commission has arranged 700 billion yuan and 800 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in the past two years to support "hard investment" projects, and has also promoted a series of "soft construction" measures [13]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will work with relevant departments to study and formulate cost recognition standards for disorderly price competition to maintain market price order [13]. - The Ministry of Commerce has released the 2025 "Country Trade Guide" to help enterprises explore diversified markets [14]. 4.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report provides trading data for various treasury bond futures contracts on November 27, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest [6]. - **Money Market**: The report mentions the changes in inter - bank repurchase rates and SHIBOR, but specific data is mainly presented in the form of figures [27][32]. - **Derivatives Market**: The report shows the average curves of Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swaps, but specific data is mainly presented in the form of figures [37].

国债期货收盘多数下跌，30年期主力合约跌0.01%报114.42，10年期主力合约跌0.06%报107.895，5年期 主力合约跌0.01%报105.77，2年期主力合约涨0.01%报102.39。 银行间主要利率债收益率窄幅波动，除超长端以外延续偏弱。30年期国债"25超长特别国债06"收益率下 行0.5BP报2.189%，10年期"25国开15"上行0.45BP报1.909%，同期限"25附息国债16"上行0.5BP报 1.839%。 新华财经北京11月27日电（王菁）债市周四（11月27日）延续走弱，国债期货主力多数收跌，银行间利 率债收益率小幅波动，中短端持续调整；公开市场单日净投放564亿元，资金利率表现分化。 中证转债指数收盘下跌0.53%，报478.37点，成交金额495.37亿元。东时转债、博23转债、垒知转债、 恒锋转债、福新转债跌幅居前，分别跌7.29%、5.94%、5.22%、4.54%、3.65%。春23转债、能辉转债、 旗滨转债、浩瀚转债、宏柏转债涨幅居前，分别涨6.85%、3.55%、3.38%、3.12%、2.70%。 机构认为，机构跨年配置意愿仍存，但交易驱动带来的收益率下行幅 ...

Group 1 - The bond market is experiencing rising yields, particularly in the long end, with the 10-year government bond yield increasing by over 1 basis point [1] - Government bond futures mostly closed lower, with the 30-year main contract down by 0.01%, the 10-year down by 0.06%, and the 5-year down by 0.01% [1] - As of 16:30, the yield on the 10-year government bond active coupon rose by 1 basis point to 1.844%, while the 10-year policy bank bond yield increased by 1.5 basis points to 1.919% [1] Group 2 - The primary market auction results show weighted average rates for various bonds, with the 10-year government bond at 1.9365% and the 5-year policy bank bond at 1.7513% [3] - The top five non-financial credit bonds with the highest gains included 23产融13 and 24新控02, with gains of 3.15% and 2.08% respectively [3] - The top five non-financial credit bonds with the largest declines were all from 万科, with the largest drop being 57.62% for 21万科02 [4] Group 3 - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 356.4 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 56.4 billion yuan for the day [5] - Shibor rates showed mixed performance, with the overnight rate down by 0.2 basis points to 1.314% and the 7-day rate down by 2.8 basis points to 1.425% [5] - Interbank repo rates remained stable, with FR001 at 1.38% and FR007 at 1.53% [6]

事不过三：第一次是市场形成阶段，第二次是市场学习阶段，第三次是市场复制阶段。 ——笔记哥《应对》 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 11. 26) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代吗 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | (亿元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1. 37 | -2 | 7 /// | 1.70 | - 11-29 | 63878.94 | -954. 09 | 86. 02 | | R007 | 1.52 | 0 | | 2.00 | 28 | 9690. 10 | 128.89 | 13.05 | | R014 | 1.53 | 0 | | 1.95 | 15 | 627.98 | -169.21 | 0. 85 | | R1H | 1.61 | 1 | n | 4.00 | 0 | 7.49 | -6.5 ...

Market Overview - The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index opened lower but rose throughout the day, with the ChiNext Index at one point increasing by over 3% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.78 trillion, a decrease of 28.8 billion from the previous trading day [1] - By the end of the trading session, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.15%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.02% and the ChiNext Index increased by 2.14% [1] Investment Trends - Despite the market downturn, many investment institutions are buying into stock ETFs, with a net inflow of 701.21 billion in stock ETFs and cross-border ETFs last week [4] - The net inflow into broad-based index ETFs was 359.31 billion, indicating a significant direction for capital inflow [4] - Institutions believe that the overall market trend remains unchanged, and the current capital inflow into ETFs suggests that many investors are taking the opportunity to buy on dips [4] External Factors - Recent adjustments in the market are attributed to external factors, including unexpected U.S. employment data and rising unemployment rates, which have created uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [5] - Concerns about asset price declines and the AI bubble have not fully dissipated, contributing to market volatility [5] - Ongoing geopolitical tensions are also affecting market risk appetite [5] Long-term Outlook - Institutions maintain an optimistic long-term outlook for the market, suggesting that the current short-term pullback does not alter the long-term positive trend [6] - The expectation is for a "slow bull" market to emerge, with foreign investment banks noting that while the market has priced in no further interest rate cuts this year, the possibility of a rate cut in December remains [6] Defensive Strategies - As the year-end approaches, institutions are adopting balanced allocation strategies for next year [7] - There is a strong demand for dividend-paying assets due to ongoing pressures in bank lending and deposit growth [8] - The potential for further interest rate cuts by the central bank could enhance the valuation of dividend assets [9] Growth Opportunities - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes technology as a key area for growth, presenting both opportunities and challenges [10] - Strategic resources are expected to become focal points in the market due to U.S.-China competition [11] Bond Market Insights - The bond market is showing signs of recovery, with the central bank signaling a more accommodative stance [12] - A decrease in bond supply towards year-end is leading to increased demand for early allocation from banks and insurance companies [12] Investment Strategies - Investors are encouraged to consider professional institutions for market participation and to monitor fund managers' adjustments [12] - A balanced allocation strategy, referred to as the "barbell strategy," is recommended, focusing on both technology-driven sectors and stable dividend-paying stocks [14] - Investors should lower short-term expectations and consider "fixed income plus" funds for stable returns [15] - Maintaining rationality during market downturns and seeking opportunities in corrections is advised as a long-term investment strategy [16]

3、地方政府专项债迎来投向政府投资基金的集中发行高峰。广东省、四川省、上海市将于11 月28日合计发行200亿元专项债券，分别注入广东省政府投资基金、成都市创业投资基金和上 海未来产业基金。叠加此前多地发行的超600亿元相关专项债，目前披露的投向政府投资基金 的地方政府专项债总规模将超800亿元。 | | 周三国债现券收益率集体走弱，到期收益率1-7Y上行0.1-2.40bp左右，10Y、30Y到期收益率 | | --- | --- | | | 上行1.50bp左右至1.84%、2.19%。国债期货集体走弱，TS、TF、T、TL主力合约分别下跌 | | | 0.05%、0.36%、0.86%。DR007加权利率回升至1.47%附近震荡。国内基本面端，10月社零 | | | 、工增较前值小幅回落，固投环比持续下降，失业率边际改善。10月社融、信贷同比小幅下 | | | 滑，政府债对社融的支撑持续减弱，企业、居民实际贷款需求仍然偏弱；M1、M2增速回落， | | | 存款活化程度放缓。10月出口同比增速转负，较去年同期下降1.1%。海外方面，美国9月非农 | | | 就业人口增11.9万人，大幅高于市场预期，但失 ...