1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The bond market adjusted significantly this week. The narrowing year - on - year decline in August's CPI and the four - month consecutive rise in core CPI indicate marginal improvement in domestic demand, but food prices still drag. The narrowing year - on - year decline in PPI and the end of eight - month consecutive decline in the month - on - month data are mainly supported by policy - driven industrial product price repairs. The export growth rate in the first eight months dropped to 6.9%, and the import decline narrowed to - 1.2%, reflecting the resilience of external demand but uneven domestic demand repair. The main reasons for the bond market adjustment this week may include policy expectation disturbances and the continuous disturbance of the stock - bond seesaw effect. The short - term bond market may be suppressed by sentiment, but the report is bullish on the bond market in the long run, expecting the 10Y Treasury yield to be between 1.6% - 1.8% in the second half of the year [2][10][82]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro News - In August, CPI decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, with the same month - on - month figure as last month, and core CPI rose to 0.9%. PPI's year - on - year decline narrowed to - 2.9%, the first narrowing since February this year, and the month - on - month change turned flat, ending eight - month consecutive decline. - In the first eight months, the total value of China's goods trade imports and exports was 29.6 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. The export growth rate dropped by 0.4 pct to 6.9%, and the import decline narrowed by 0.4 pct to - 1.2%. - At the end of August, M2 balance was 332.0 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.8%; M1 balance was 111.2 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6%. The cumulative increase in social financing scale in the first eight months was 26.6 trillion yuan, 4.7 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. - The US CPI in August increased by 2.9% year - on - year, a new high since January, and 0.4% month - on - month, higher than expected. Core CPI increased by 3.1% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month in August, both in line with market expectations [12][17][19][21]. 3.2 Medium - term High - frequency Data 3.2.1 Consumption - As of September 7, the daily average retail volume of passenger car manufacturers was 4.3 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%, and the daily average wholesale volume was 4.4 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 5.1%. - As of September 12, the total box office revenue of national movies in the past 7 days was 35782.6 million yuan, a year - on - year increase of 41.0%. - As of August 29, the total retail volume of three major household appliances was 1.337 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 9.9%, and the total retail sales were 2.13 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 33.5% [24][28]. 3.2.2 Transportation - As of September 7, the weekly container throughput of ports was 6.646 million twenty - foot equivalent units, a year - on - year increase of 13.4%. - As of September 11, the average daily subway passenger volume in first - tier cities in the past 7 days was 37.473 million person - times, a year - on - year increase of 2.0%. - As of September 7, the weekly postal express pick - up volume was 3.86 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%. - As of September 7, the weekly railway freight volume was 79.043 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.1%, and the weekly highway truck traffic volume was 5.436 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6% [34][36][39]. 3.2.3 Industrial Operating Rates - As of September 10, the blast furnace operating rate of major steel enterprises nationwide was 77.3%, a year - on - year increase of 1.8 pct. - As of September 11, the average asphalt operating rate was 26.0%, a year - on - year increase of 5.0 pct. - As of September 11, the soda ash operating rate was 87.5%, a year - on - year increase of 12.9 pct, and the PVC operating rate was 79.8%, a year - on - year increase of 3.8 pct. - As of September 12, the average PX operating rate was 87.0%, and the average PTA operating rate was 74.7% [42][44]. 3.2.4 Real Estate - As of September 12, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities in the past 7 days was 1.488 million square meters, a year - on - year increase of 6.2%. - As of September 5, the second - hand housing transaction area in 9 sample cities was 1.234 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5% [47]. 3.2.5 Prices - As of September 12, the average weekly pork wholesale price was 19.9 yuan/kg, a year - on - year decrease of 26.3% and a 1.3% decrease compared to four weeks ago; the average vegetable wholesale price was 5.1 yuan/kg, a year - on - year decrease of 16.0% and an 8.7% increase compared to four weeks ago; the average wholesale price of 6 key fruits was 6.9 yuan/kg, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4% and a 1.0% decrease compared to four weeks ago. - As of September 12, the average weekly price of thermal coal at northern ports was 682.0 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 19.8% and a 1.0% decrease compared to four weeks ago; the average weekly WTI crude oil spot price was 62.6 US dollars/barrel, a year - on - year decrease of 7.6% and a 1.5% decrease compared to four weeks ago. - As of September 12, the average weekly spot price of rebar was 3138.0 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7% and a 5.5% decrease compared to four weeks ago; the average weekly spot price of iron ore was 804.9 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 14.2% and a 1.5% increase compared to four weeks ago [48][53][55]. 3.3 Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets - On September 12, overnight Shibor was 1.37%, up 1.40 BP from September 8. R001 was 1.40%, down 1.01 BP from September 8; R007 was 1.47%, down 0.53 BP from September 8. DR001 was 1.36%, up 0.76 BP from September 8; DR007 was 1.46%, up 0.52 BP from September 8. IBO001 was 1.40%, up 0.84 BP from September 8; IBO007 was 1.50%, up 0.37 BP from September 8. - Most Treasury yields rose. On September 12, the 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year/30 - year Treasury yields were 1.40%/1.61%/1.87%/2.18%, up 0.2 BP/0.3 BP/4.1 BP/7.3 BP respectively from September 5. The 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year/30 - year yields of China Development Bank bonds were 1.58%/1.82%/2.03%/2.26%, up 4.1 BP/6.3 BP/15.8 BP/6.8 BP respectively from September 5. - On September 12, the 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year yields of local government bonds were 1.54%/1.84%/2.03%, up 8.7 BP/0.5 BP/2.1 BP respectively from September 5. The yields of AAA 1 - month/1 - year and AA+ 1 - month/1 - year inter - bank certificates of deposit were 1.55%/1.68%/1.57%/1.71%, up 12.1 BP/1.1 BP/12.1 BP/0.1 BP respectively from September 5. - As of September 12, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields of the US, Japan, the UK, and Germany were 4.1%, 1.6%, 4.7%, and 2.8%, down 4 BP/up 3 BP/up 3 BP/down 2 BP respectively from September 5. - On September 12, the central parity rate and spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan were 7.10/7.12, down 45/154 pips respectively from September 5 [58][63][65][71][74]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior - Since the beginning of 2025, the duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds investing in interest - rate bonds has shown a trend of first decreasing, then increasing, and then decreasing. As of September 12, 2025, the estimated median duration was about 4.7 years, a decrease of about 0.1 years compared to last week (September 5). - Since the beginning of 2025, the duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds investing in credit bonds has shown a volatile trend. In the past month, the duration has risen rapidly and then fluctuated. As of September 12, 2025, the estimated average duration was about 3.1 years, and the estimated median duration was about 3.0 years, an increase of about 0.2 years compared to last week (September 5) [77][79]. 3.5 Investment Advice - The short - term bond market may be suppressed by sentiment, but the report remains bullish on the bond market. The year - on - year growth rate of prices in August was generally lower than expected, and this may be a stage of economic growth momentum transformation and income distribution structure adjustment. The year - on - year growth rates of exports and imports in August both declined. Coupled with the strong performance of consumption policies in the first half of the year, there may be some pressure on consumption and exports in the second half of the year. It is necessary to continuously monitor the continuation of incremental policies and price improvements. The report believes that the economic downward pressure may increase in the second half of the year, the capital market will remain loose, the central bank may restart Treasury bond purchases, and the self - operating allocation demand of banks will support the decline of bond market interest rates. The recent unexpected rise of the stock market has led to a significant adjustment in the bond market, but the bond market will ultimately return to fundamental and capital - based pricing. When the stock market adjusts, bond yields may decline rapidly. The report continues to expect the 10Y Treasury yield to be between 1.6% - 1.8% in the second half of the year, and the current 10Y Treasury yield of about 1.8% is highly cost - effective [80][82].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Last week (September 8 - 12, 2025), the bond market experienced significant volatility and adjustment, showing a pattern of "falling first and then stabilizing." The 10 - year Treasury bond yield broke through the 1.8% key point, reaching a new high since April. The adjustment was mainly driven by the public - fund fee - rate new rules and the strong performance of the stock market [1]. - The current bond market is in a headwind period. Although the first pressure point of 1.8% has been broken through, in the long - term, the bond market has a certain basis for recovery as this breakthrough is mainly due to the stock market's strong sentiment and bond - fund redemption shocks rather than a fundamental shift in the fundamentals [2]. - There are four catalysts for the bond market in the fourth quarter: the possible restart of the central bank's Treasury bond trading operations, the potential Fed rate cut in September, the continued pressure on the fundamentals, and the ongoing Sino - US tariff negotiations [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Interest - rate Bond Last - week Data Review - **Funds Rate**: From September 8 - 12, the funds rate first rose and then fell, with an overall slight increase compared to the previous week. DR001 closed at 1.36% on September 12, R001 closed at 1.40%, DR007 closed at 1.46%, and FR007 closed at 1.46% [8]. - **Open - market Operations**: The central bank's reverse - repurchase net investment was 196.1 billion yuan last week, and it announced a 600 - billion - yuan outright reverse - repurchase operation on September 15 [1]. - **Sino - US Market Interest Rate Comparison**: The inversion of the Sino - US bond yield spread narrowed. The Sino - US 6 - month interest - rate spread was - 222BP, and the 2 - year/10 - year spreads were - 209BP and - 214BP respectively, with the inversion narrowing [15]. - **Term Spread**: The Chinese bond term spread remained basically unchanged, while the US bond term spread slightly decreased. The 10 - 2 - year spread of Chinese bonds was 44BP, and that of US bonds was 50BP [15]. - **Interest - rate Term Structure**: The Chinese bond yield curve remained basically unchanged, while the US bond yield curve had its middle section slightly move up [16]. 2. Real - estate High - frequency Data Tracking - **First - tier Cities**: The transaction volume of commercial housing in first - tier cities remained in a low - level volatile state. The average daily transaction area was 64,400 square meters, and the average daily number of transactions was 610 units. September 12 was the weekly high, and September 14 was the weekly low [23]. - **Top Ten Cities**: The transaction data of commercial housing in the top ten cities rebounded compared to the previous week, with an average daily transaction area of about 94,000 square meters, an increase of about 9,500 square meters per day compared to the previous week [23]. - **30 Large and Medium - sized Cities**: The commercial - housing transactions in 30 large and medium - sized cities remained at a historical low. The average daily transaction area was about 190,000 square meters, and the average daily number of transactions was about 1,728 units. September 11 was the weekly peak [23].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The scale of wealth management products grew steadily in August 2025, reaching 32.92 trillion yuan at the end of August, an increase of 2.97 trillion yuan from the end of the previous year and 0.25 trillion yuan from the end of the previous month [4][7]. - The average annualized yield of pure fixed - income wealth management products of wealth management companies in August was relatively stable. The average upper and lower limits of the performance comparison benchmark of newly issued RMB fixed - income wealth management products in August were 2.81% and 2.23% respectively. The average 7 - day annualized yield of cash management products of wealth management companies was 1.27% as of September 7 [4][13][16]. - The interest - bearing liability cost rate of A - share listed banks has declined rapidly in the past two years. It is expected that the interest - bearing liability cost rate of A - share listed banks in 25Q4 will drop below 1.65%, and the liability cost of commercial banks will decline year by year in the next five years, supporting the downward trend of bond yields [4][20]. - The report is bullish on the bond market in the short term. The 10Y government bond has certain allocation value for bank self - operation. It is recommended that commercial bank self - operation increase the allocation of government bonds during bond market adjustments. The 10Y Treasury yield may return to around 1.65% in the next six months [4][24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 8 - month Wealth Management Scale - As of the end of August 2025, the total wealth management scale was 32.92 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.97 trillion yuan from the end of the previous year and 0.25 trillion yuan from the end of the previous month. The scale is at a historical high [4][7]. - The scale increment in August 2025 was 0.25 trillion yuan, consistent with the seasonal pattern. The combined increment in July and August 2025 was 2.25 trillion yuan, higher than the same period from 2022 - 2024 [4]. 3.2 Yield of Fixed - Income Wealth Management Products in August 2025 - Since the beginning of 2022, the average performance comparison benchmark of newly issued RMB fixed - income wealth management products of wealth management companies has been declining. In August 2025, the upper limit was 2.81% and the lower limit was 2.23%. It is expected that the lower limit may reach 2.0% [13]. - The average 7 - day annualized yield of cash management products of wealth management companies decreased slightly in August. As of September 7, it was 1.27%, while the average 7 - day annualized yield of money market funds was 1.11%. The yield of money - like products may further decline [16]. - Despite the bond market adjustment in August, the average monthly annualized yield of pure fixed - income wealth management products was 2.49%, relatively stable [20]. 3.3 Investment Suggestions: Decline in Bank Liability Costs Supports the Bond Market - The interest - bearing liability cost rate of A - share listed banks in 25Q2 was 1.72%, a quarterly decrease of 8BP and a decrease of 45BP from the high point in 23Q4. It is expected to drop below 1.65% in 25Q4 [4][20]. - In the low - interest - rate era, the difficulty of pure - bond investment has increased significantly. It is recommended to lower the return expectations for bond investment. The proportion of bond investment in the bank system may increase in the long term [23]. - As of the end of August, the 10Y Treasury yield was close to 1.8%. Considering the decline in future liability costs, the spread of 10Y government bonds for bank self - operation may expand. It is recommended that commercial bank self - operation increase the allocation of government bonds during bond market adjustments [24].

【市场表现】 国债期货收盘多数上涨，30年期主力合约跌0.11%报114.740元，10年期主力合约涨0.07%报107.580元， 5年期主力合约涨0.14%报105.590元，2年期主力合约涨0.06%报102.410元。银行间主要利率债走势分 化，中短券强势，超长端走弱。2-5年国债活跃券收益率下行1-2bp；30年国债活跃券上行超1bp。30年 期"25超长特别国债02"报2.105%，10年期"25附息国债11"报1.805%，同期限"25国开15"报1.962%。 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告的最终所有权归报告的来源 机构所有，客户在接收到本报告后，应遵循报告来源机构对报告的版权规定，不得刊载或转发。 央行公告称，9月11日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了2920亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%， 投标量2920亿元，中标量2920亿元。数据显示，当日2126亿元逆回购到期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent actions of the central bank in the bond market, highlighting the mixed performance of the stock market and the bond market, as well as the implications of the central bank's bond purchasing strategy for market sentiment and investor behavior [3][5]. Group 1: Central Bank Actions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 292 billion yuan, with a net injection of 79.4 billion yuan after 212.6 billion yuan of reverse repos matured [3]. - The funding rates showed a slight decline, with DR001 around 1.37% and DR007 around 1.48% [3]. Group 2: Market Performance - The stock market showed strong performance, with an increase of over 1% in the morning session, while bond yields exhibited divergence, particularly with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating between 1.8125% and 1.7975% [5][7]. - The sentiment in the bond market improved compared to the previous day, with the 10-year government bond yield reaching a low of 1.7925% during the day [5]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Market Dynamics - The article notes that the central bank's potential resumption of bond purchases has become a "quick fix" for bond market bulls, reflecting a shift in market sentiment [5]. - There is a commentary on the evolving understanding of market dynamics, emphasizing that investors are now more influenced by stock market performance, rumors, and market emotions rather than just fundamental, policy, and funding factors [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Report's Core View - In August, the price index was under marginal pressure, with both CPI and PPI year-on-year in the negative range. The year-on-year decline of CPI was 0.4%, and the month-on-month was flat. The year-on-year decline of PPI narrowed to 2.9%, and the month-on-month turned from decline to flat [1]. - The year-on-year pressure on CPI and flat month-on-month may be affected by the seasonal weakness of food prices and high base. In the future, food prices in September may continue to be under pressure due to high base, while service prices may continue to recover in the second half of the year [1]. - The year-on-year decline of PPI narrowed for the first time in six months. The month-on-month turn to flat was mainly affected by policy-driven supply-demand improvement and imported factors. In the future, the prices of production materials in September may continue to pick up, while the stabilization of living materials may depend on the repair of food PPI [1]. - The downward pressure on the economy may increase in the second half of the year. In August, the year-on-year growth rate of prices was lower than expected, and the manufacturing PMI continued to be below the boom-bust line, indicating growth pressure. Consumption and exports may face certain pressure in the second half of the year [1]. - The short-term bond market may be suppressed by sentiment, and the bond market is bullish in September. It is believed that the downward pressure on the economy may increase in the second half of the year, the capital side will continue to be loose, the central bank may restart Treasury bond purchases, and the self-operated allocation demand of banks will support the decline of bond market interest rates [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content CPI Situation - In August 2025, CPI year-on-year decreased by 0.4%, month-on-month was flat, both down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The year-on-year increase of core CPI continued to expand to 0.9% for the fourth consecutive month, reflecting the improvement trend of domestic demand [1]. - The year-on-year decline of CPI food prices has been negative for seven consecutive months. In August 2025, it decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 2.7 percentage points from the previous month. Food and tobacco had a drag of about -0.74 percentage points on CPI year-on-year. Non-food prices increased by 0.5% year-on-year, with the increase expanding for three consecutive months, mainly driven by industrial consumer goods and service items [1]. - Looking forward, food prices in September may continue to be under pressure due to high base. With relevant policies, service prices may continue to recover in the second half of the year [1]. PPI Situation - In August 2025, the year-on-year decline of PPI narrowed to 2.9%, the first narrowing since February this year, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, and the month-on-month turned from decline to flat, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, ending the continuous decline for eight months [1]. - From the sub-items, the year-on-year decline of production materials narrowed, up 1.1 percentage points from July to -3.2%, and the year-on-year decline of living materials slightly expanded, down 0.1 percentage points from July to -1.7% [1]. - The month-on-month turn to flat of PPI was mainly affected by policy-driven supply-demand improvement and imported factors. In the future, the prices of production materials in September may continue to pick up, while the stabilization of living materials may depend on the repair of food PPI [1]. Economic and Bond Market Situation - In August, the year-on-year growth rate of prices was lower than expected, and the manufacturing PMI continued to be below the boom-bust line, indicating growth pressure. Consumption and exports may face certain pressure in the second half of the year [1]. - The short-term bond market may be suppressed by sentiment, and the bond market is bullish in September. It is expected that the 10Y Treasury bond yield will be between 1.6% - 1.8% in the second half of the year, and will return to around 1.65% in the next six months [1].

Group 1: Inflation Data Analysis - In August 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, marking a return to negative growth after two months[6] - Food prices fell by 4.3% year-on-year, with significant declines in pork (16.1%), fresh vegetables (15.2%), and eggs (14.2%) contributing to a downward pressure on CPI[6] - Non-food prices increased by 0.5% year-on-year, partially offsetting the decline in food prices[6] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.9% year-on-year, indicating potential effectiveness of domestic demand policies[6] Group 2: PPI and Economic Outlook - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.9% year-on-year in August, but the decline narrowed by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month, suggesting a potential turning point[11] - The PPI's month-on-month change improved from a decline of 0.2% to flat, ending an eight-month downward trend[12] - The improvement in PPI is attributed to the effectiveness of supply-side reforms, particularly in coal and new energy vehicle sectors[11] - Current PPI conditions support a downward trend in interest rates rather than an upward shift, indicating a need for continued policy efforts to stabilize economic recovery[1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - A-shares are experiencing a volatile rebound with the technology sector leading. After a significant increase, A-shares may enter a high-level volatile pattern. The direction of monetary policy in the second half of September is crucial for the equity market. [3] - The bond market sentiment is weak, with continued capital convergence and falling bond futures. There is a possibility of over - selling in the bond market, and the 10 - year bond yield may continue to rise. [3] - Precious metals are in a high - level volatile state after digesting geopolitical events and interest - rate cut expectations. [3] - Various commodities have different trends and trading suggestions based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market sentiment. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Equity Index Futures**: The basis rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM's main contracts are 0.29%, - 0.06%, - 0.99%, and - 1.10% respectively. A-shares are in a volatile rebound, and after a large increase, they may enter a high - level volatile pattern. Wait for volatility to converge before entering the market. [3] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market sentiment is weak, and the 10 - year bond yield has not stabilized at 1.8%. T2512 has broken through the previous low. Suggest investors to wait and see, and pay attention to changes in the capital market, equity market, and fundamentals in the short term. [3] - **Precious Metals**: Gold can be bought cautiously at low levels, or short - sell out - of - the - money options to capture volatility decline. Silver can be traded in the range of $40 - 42, and also sell out - of - the - money options. [3] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The main contract of EC is weakly volatile. Consider 12 - 10 spread arbitrage. [3] Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel prices remain weak. Pay attention to the support levels of 3100 for rebar and 3300 for hot - rolled coils. Long positions should exit and wait. [3] - **Iron Ore**: Shipments have dropped significantly from the high level, arrivals have decreased, and port clearance has slightly declined. The iron ore price is running strongly. Buy the 2601 contract at low levels in the range of 780 - 830, and reduce the long - iron - ore short - coking - coal arbitrage position. [3] - **Coking Coal**: Spot prices are weakly volatile, coal mines are resuming production and destocking. Short positions should take profit in the range of 1070 - 1170, and reduce the long - iron - ore short - coking - coal arbitrage position. [3] - **Coke**: The first round of coke price cuts has been implemented, compressing coking profits with more room for cuts. Short positions should take profit in the range of 1550 - 1650, and reduce the long - iron - ore short - coke arbitrage position. [3] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Weak US PPI boosts interest - rate cut expectations. Pay attention to Thursday's inflation data. The main contract reference range is 79000 - 81000. [3] - **Alumina**: The futures price is close to the mainstream cost range, and the short - term downward space is limited. It is weakly volatile, with the main contract reference range of 2900 - 3200. [3] - **Aluminum**: The weekly start - up rate of processed products is continuously recovering. Pay attention to the fulfillment of peak - season demand. The main contract reference range is 20400 - 21000. [3] - **Other Non - ferrous Metals**: Each metal has its own reference price range and trading suggestions based on their fundamentals and market sentiment. [3] Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risk premiums support the oil price rebound, but the loose supply - demand fundamentals limit the upside. It is recommended to wait and see. For options, wait for volatility to increase for spread - widening opportunities. [3] - **Other Chemicals**: Each chemical product has different supply - demand expectations, and corresponding trading suggestions are provided, such as range trading, short - selling, or waiting and seeing. [3] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: There is a bearish outlook for palm oil due to inventory growth and weak exports. Pay attention to the support levels of various agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and sugar. [3] - **Livestock and Poultry**: The pig market has limited supply - demand contradictions. The corn market has limited upward potential in the short term. [3] Special Commodities - **Glass**: News about production lines in Shahe has driven up the futures price. Pay attention to the actual progress. [3] - **Rubber**: After the macro - sentiment fades, the rubber price is falling in a volatile manner. Wait and see. [3] New Energy - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Pay attention to the Silicon Industry Conference. Due to news - related disturbances, the futures prices are falling. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. Wait and see. [3] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Driven by news, the sentiment in the market has weakened significantly, but the fundamentals remain in a tight - balance state. Wait and see, and pay attention to the performance around 72,000. [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent CPI and PPI data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, highlighting a decline in CPI and PPI, with specific attention to the structural changes in prices and the implications for the bond market [4][5]. CPI and PPI Summary - In August 2025, the CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, with a core CPI increase of 0.9%, indicating a slight upward trend in core inflation [4][5]. - The CPI's month-on-month growth rate was 0%, showing a decline from July's 0.4% [5]. - The PPI saw a year-on-year decline of 2.9%, an improvement from July's 3.6% drop, and the month-on-month growth rate was also 0%, marking a halt in the negative trend after eight months [5]. Structural Analysis - The CPI structure revealed that food prices continued to decline, energy prices remained low, and service prices showed an increase in growth [5]. - The PPI's structural differentiation was noted, with upstream extraction prices rising quickly, but the transmission to downstream industrial products was not yet evident [5]. Bond Market Insights - The bond market has shown a divergence in yield trends since August 2025, with short-term yields stable and long-term yields increasing significantly [6]. - The current liquidity is relatively loose, leading to an optimistic outlook for pure bonds, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to stabilize around 1.7% [6]. - Convertible bonds have underperformed relative to underlying stocks since August 25, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to strong demand and limited supply [6].

Group 1: Report Title and General Information - Report Title: How to View Price Signals in the Bond Market Correction? - Commentary on August Price Data [1] - Report Type: Commentary Report [6] - Chief Analyst: Hong Ziyan [2] Group 2: Main Viewpoints Data Observation: Characteristics of August Inflation Data - CPI: In August, the CPI year-on-year was -0.4%, down 0.4 pct from the previous month, falling back into the negative range and lower than the market expectation (-0.2%). The CPI month-on-month was 0%, down 0.4 pct from the previous month. The food item dragged down the CPI significantly, while the core CPI continued to rise, significantly pulled by the gold price [2]. - PPI: The PPI year-on-year was -2.9%, with the decline narrowing compared to July but still lower than the market expectation (-2.88%). The PPI month-on-month was 0%, ending the five - month negative trend. The upstream price regulation continued to show its influence, but the price transmission from the production end to the demand end was still not smooth [2][3][4]. In - depth Perspective: Implications of August Price Data - From the perspective of residents' income, the year - on - year decline of the rent level has remained at -0.1% for six consecutive months since March, indicating that the income improvement trend may have stagnated [5]. - In terms of core indicators, the pork price in August dropped year - on - year to -16.1% and month - on - month to -0.5%. The high inventory of breeding sows led to an oversupply of pork, and the decline in pork price also reflected the contraction of demand, which may continue to drag down the CPI [5][7]. - High - frequency data showed that the prices of various commodities declined, and the upward force on the PPI might weaken [7]. Future Outlook: Trends Seen from August Inflation Data - CPI: This month, the CPI declined more than expected, and the support for the core CPI was still weak. The decline in pork price and international oil price may continue to drag down the CPI. Attention should be paid to the boosting effect of policies on the demand side [8]. - PPI: The PPI trend was still dominated by supply - side price regulation, but the upward momentum weakened. Whether the PPI can maintain the current level in the next month depends on the demand - side's ability to absorb [9]. - Bond Market: The CPI and PPI year - on - year were still in the negative range, and the bond market's continuous correction did not match the fundamentals. In the future, the market may return to the fundamentals, and there are still funds waiting to enter the bond market [9][10][12]