Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on August 4, with a fixed rate and quantity tendering, amounting to 544.8 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, with the same amount being the winning bid [1] - On the same day, 495.8 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 49 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The central bank's open market has shifted to net injection, leading to a stable yet slightly loose funding environment in the interbank market, with the overnight repo weighted average rate (DR001) slightly rising to around 1.31% [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. stands at 4.39% [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is at 1.63%, showing a slight decrease from the previous day [7] Group 4: Bond Market Overview - The yields on major interbank bonds are as follows: - 1Y government bond yield at 1.3675% - 2Y at 1.4200% - 3Y at 1.4450% - 5Y at 1.5700% - 7Y at 1.6475% - 10Y at 1.7075% - Long-term bonds at 1.9190% [10] Group 5: Recent City Investment Bonds - The recent trends and data on AAA-rated city investment bonds show various yield spreads, indicating market conditions and investor sentiment [12] Group 6: Upcoming Bond Issuances - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue 60 billion yuan of 182-day discount treasury bonds on August 11 [21] - The China Development Bank will issue up to 34 billion yuan of three fixed-rate bonds on August 5 [21] - Ant Financial is starting the subscription for a 20 billion yuan, 3-year financial bond, with a subscription range of 1.7%-2.4% [21]

新华财经北京8月4日电（王菁）债市周一（8月4日）走势反复，上周修复行情并未得到平稳延续，市场 对国债税率调整的预期仍在"摇摆"，长债午后率先调整，国债期货主力合约下探后回升至平盘附近，银 行间现券收益率上行1BP左右；公开市场单日净投放490亿元，资金利率月初普遍回落。 机构认为，虽然基本面和资产荒的大格局决定债市总体向好，调整空间有限。但也需要看到，随着票息 不断下行，市场行为的演变导致市场脆弱性在上升。如果其他市场涨势温和，并且需求继续放缓，货币 宽松预期将提升，利率有望再创新低。 【行情跟踪】 欧元区市场方面，当地时间8月1日，欧债收益率收盘涨跌不一，10年期英债收益率涨1.3BP报4.577%， 10年期法债收益率跌0.2BP报3.346%，10年期德债收益率涨2BPs报2.710%，10年期意债收益率涨0.6BP 报3.542%，10年期西债收益率涨4.7BPs报3.272%。 国债期货收盘多数上涨，30年期主力合约涨0.08%报119.190，10年期主力合约涨0.02%报108.470，5年 期主力合约跌0.01%报105.715，2年期主力合约持平于102.352。 银行间主要利率债收益率午 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent economic indicators and policy changes have led to a recovery in the bond market, with a notable decline in bond yields, particularly the 10-year government bond yield, which fell to approximately 1.70% [1][4][6]. Market Overview - The bond market experienced a general decline in yields across various maturities from July 25 to August 1, with the 10-year yield decreasing by 2.65 basis points [2][3]. - The issuance of government bonds totaled 672.435 billion yuan across 92 bonds, with significant demand for a 50-year special government bond issued at a competitive rate [8][9]. Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for July was reported at 49.3%, indicating a slight decline, while the non-manufacturing index was at 50.1%, also down by 0.4 percentage points [19]. - The U.S. labor market showed signs of weakness, with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 73,000 jobs in July, significantly below expectations, which may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [12]. Policy Changes - Starting August 8, a value-added tax will be reinstated on interest income from newly issued government bonds, which may lead to a short-term boost in bond market activity but could also shift funds towards credit bonds in the long term [1][20]. - The Central Bank conducted a total of 16.632 billion yuan in reverse repos during the week, maintaining liquidity in the market [15][17]. Institutional Perspectives - Analysts from Guojin Securities suggest that the new VAT on bond interest may lead to higher issuance rates for new bonds, creating a yield spread between new and existing bonds [21]. - Financial institutions anticipate continued monetary easing, with potential rate cuts expected to support the bond market, projecting that the 10-year government bond yield could trend towards 1.5% [21].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The capital rate in July continued to decline, and the capital market was relatively friendly. It is expected that the capital rate in August will likely maintain a stable and slightly loose pattern [2][6] Group 3: Summary of July Review - Most term capital rates declined in July. The operating centers of DR007 and DR014 decreased by 6bp and 8bp respectively, and those of R001, R007, and R014 decreased by 4bp, 10bp, and 12bp respectively. The deviation of DR007 from the policy rate also narrowed [2][12] - The number of days when DR007 dropped below "policy rate + 10bp" increased significantly in July, rising from 5% in previous months to 45% [2][13] - The central bank continued to support the capital market in July. The total capital injection through reverse repurchase, MLF, and outright reverse repurchase was 48.8 billion, with the net injection scale being the second - highest in the same period since 2018. The capital injection during the tax period was the highest in the same period since 2018, and a large - scale reverse repurchase was carried out after the unexpected tightening of capital rates on July 24 [2][14] - The rapid decline in the bill rediscount rate may indicate poor credit demand in July. Banks may use bill financing to increase credit scale, which reduces the consumption of excess reserves and benefits the capital market [3][19] - The yield of inter - bank certificates of deposit fluctuated. The R007 - DR007 spread reached a new low in the same period since 2019 [21] Group 4: Summary of August Outlook - The market's expectation for further loosening of the capital market in the future is not strong, but the capital rate in August may still maintain a stable and slightly loose pattern [4][6] - Whether the capital market will experience "secondary tightening" is crucial for the bond market. The current bond market adjustment is mainly driven by price increase expectations. If the capital follows and tightens, it will form an additional negative factor [4][32] - Historically, commodity price increases do not necessarily lead to synchronous increases in capital prices. There were cases in 2017, 2018, and 2021 where the building materials composite index rose while the capital rate remained flat or declined [4][33] - The current social financing and exchange rate situations are different from those in the first quarter. Social financing is likely to decline in the second half of the year, and the exchange rate pressure has significantly eased [5][39] - The PMI indicates that the current fundamentals are weaker than those in the first quarter. Since 2024, the capital rate has been more sensitive to fundamental changes. The recent decline in high - frequency fundamental signals suggests that there is no upward risk for the capital rate [5][43] - The net financing pressure of government bonds in August will increase slightly compared to July, but the overall liquidity gap will narrow. Assuming the central bank conducts equal - amount roll - overs of maturing monetary tools, the estimated excess reserve ratio in August will decline [44][47]

Economic Indicators - July manufacturing PMI recorded at 49.3%, down from 49.7% in June, indicating a significant contraction and falling below market expectations of 49.6%[2] - Non-manufacturing PMI decreased to 50.1% from 50.5%, while the composite PMI output index fell to 50.2%[2] Demand and Supply Dynamics - New orders fell below the expansion threshold, with new export orders declining by 0.6 percentage points, marking a four-month low[5] - The production index showed a notable decline but remained in the expansion zone, indicating ongoing production activity despite weakening demand[3] Price and Cost Pressures - Major raw material purchase prices surged, leading to a significant increase in factory prices, although the increase in factory prices lagged behind raw material costs, creating a record price gap for the year[7] - The supply chain faced pressures as the supplier delivery time index slightly increased, indicating stable logistics efficiency amidst rising costs[3] Inventory and Procurement Trends - Finished goods inventory saw a substantial decrease, reflecting a shift from passive to active inventory reduction strategies by companies due to high costs and weak demand[8] - Procurement volumes dropped significantly, entering a contraction phase as companies adjusted their purchasing strategies in response to declining orders[5] Sector Performance - Equipment manufacturing PMI fell to 50.3%, while consumer goods PMI dropped to 49.5%, indicating a contraction in consumer demand[4] - Large enterprises experienced a decline in PMI, while medium-sized enterprises showed a slight recovery, highlighting a growing disparity among different business sizes[4] Future Outlook - The July PMI data reversed the optimistic expectations from June, indicating a retreat in demand, inventory cycles, and industry dynamics[10] - The bond market is expected to reflect these economic realities, with the ten-year government bond yield showing an upward trend despite the contraction in manufacturing PMI[12]

证券研究报告 固收点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 31 日 ——2025 年 7 月 PMI 点评 投资要点： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 马赫 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 mahe@huayuanstock.com 制造业 PMI 季节性回落，价格指数回升 7 月 PMI 季节性回落，景气度有所下降。7 月制造业 PMI 环比下降 0.4pct 至 49.3%， 2021-2024 年的 7 月制造业 PMI 平均环比下降 0.38pct，今年 7 月下降或主要受部 分地区高温、暴雨、台风灾害等因素影响。7 月产需相关指数有所收缩，价格指数持 续回升。7 月非制造业商务活动指数为 50.1%，环比下降 0.4pct，服务业商务活动指 数和建筑业商务活动指数分别为 50.0%和 50.6%，较上月分别-0.1pct/-2.2pct。7 月综合 PMI 产出指数为 50.2%，较上月-0.5pct，仍位于扩张区间，显示企业生产经 营活动总体扩张虽有所减缓，但经济内生动力持续 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the bank maintains a neutral outlook on US stocks, expecting only one rate cut by the end of the year, and has downgraded sovereign and investment-grade corporate bonds to "neutral" [1][2] - The Federal Reserve decided to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at a target range of 4.25%-4.5%, marking the first time since 1993 that two members voted against the decision [1] - The Fed's assessment of the US economy has been downgraded, indicating a slowdown in economic activity during the first half of the year, contrasting with previous statements describing steady expansion [1] Group 2 - The impact of the trade war on US inflation and overall economic activity remains unclear, and with the job market stable, the likelihood of a rate cut in September is low [2] - The bank notes that major central banks are expected to slow their rate-cutting pace, and concerns about fiscal outlook are rising, leading to a downgrade of sovereign and investment-grade corporate bonds to neutral [2] - Despite the recent rise in US stocks supported by strong performance from leading tech companies, valuations are significantly high, and the opportunity for US stocks to outperform other markets in the short to medium term is limited [2]

Group 1 - The recent "anti-involution" sentiment is intensifying, with policy expectations rising, leading to improved market risk appetite and a positive impact on the Shanghai Composite Index, which has surpassed 3600 points [1] - Industrial product inflation expectations are being driven by both supply-side "anti-involution" and demand-side investments, indicating a correction in the fundamental outlook [1] - The issuance of long-term special government bonds faced a cold reception, and unexpected tightening of liquidity has reinforced a challenging environment for the bond market [1] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" initiative is gaining clarity with various legal, regulatory, and industrial measures being implemented, including the draft amendment to the Price Law, which aims to address low-price dumping [2] - The significance of "anti-involution" lies in breaking the negative feedback loop caused by persistently weak prices, which affects supply-demand balance and optimization [2] - Current economic challenges include weak demand and prices, leading to increased deflationary pressures and insufficient leverage for residents and enterprises, creating a negative feedback mechanism [2] Group 3 - The success of "anti-involution" relies heavily on demand-side recovery, with fiscal measures expected to shift from funding allocation to tangible project execution [3] - Compared to previous supply-side reforms, the current "anti-involution" approach is more market-oriented, with a focus on stabilizing demand while considering employment factors [3] - The policy direction emphasizes deepening reforms and high-quality development without resorting to excessive demand-side stimulus or redundant supply-side investments [3] Group 4 - Historical adjustments in the bond market due to supply-side structural reforms suggest that while industrial prices may rise, the demand side is crucial for determining long-term interest rate trends [4] - The relationship between interest rates and core CPI is significant, as core CPI reflects true demand strength, and the transmission of rising industrial prices to broader CPI is critical [4] - Current demand-side dynamics do not exhibit the same strength as previous housing reforms, leading to potential demand drag in the early stages of "anti-involution" [4] Group 5 - Recent risk warnings from exchanges and the implementation of position limits have cooled the commodity futures market, with significant corrections in previously high-performing products [5] - The bond market may see short-term rebound opportunities due to central bank liquidity support, despite the amplified adjustment pressures from bond fund redemptions [5] - Investors should remain cautious of potential redemption waves and monitor central bank actions to stabilize liquidity expectations, especially with upcoming trade negotiations [5]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is currently experiencing a period of adjustment, influenced by various factors such as the "stock-bond seesaw" effect, but analysts believe that there are still opportunities for bullish positions as negative sentiment dissipates [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The bond market has shown signs of volatility and adjustment, with the 10-year government bond yield rising from 1.67% on July 18 to 1.73% by July 25 [2]. - The stock market has been performing well, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3600 points and gaining 4.3% in July, which has diverted some funds away from the bond market [2]. - The recent adjustments in the bond market are attributed to increased risk appetite and a rise in funding rates, leading to a significant sell-off in bond funds [3]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Despite the recent adjustments, there are positive factors emerging, such as increased buying from insurance institutions, which reached a new high since April 2020, indicating potential support for the bond market [4]. - Analysts suggest that the current bond market levels present a good value for investment, particularly in long-duration government bonds and recently adjusted perpetual bonds [6][7]. - The expectation is that the 10-year government bond yield may return to around 1.65% as market risks ease, and there are notable opportunities in credit bonds, especially in municipal investment bonds and insurance subordinated debt [6][7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the credit bond ETF from Bosera is experiencing active trading and has shown resilience in its performance despite short-term market challenges [1][2]. - As of July 29, 2025, the Bosera credit bond ETF is priced at 100.75 yuan, with a recent drop of 0.18% [1]. - The ETF has a recent trading volume of 24.04 billion yuan, indicating a high level of market activity, with an average daily trading volume of 46.04 billion yuan over the past month, ranking it first among comparable funds [1][2]. Group 2 - The latest scale of the Bosera credit bond ETF has reached 12.094 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 4.44 billion yuan over the last 21 trading days [2]. - The ETF has shown a net value increase of 1.11% over the past six months, ranking 20 out of 480 in the index bond fund category, placing it in the top 4.17% [2]. - Since its inception, the ETF has recorded a maximum drawdown of 0.89%, with a recovery time of 26 days [2]. Group 3 - The management fee for the Bosera credit bond ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, which are the lowest among comparable funds [3]. - The tracking error for the ETF over the past six months is 0.008%, indicating the highest tracking precision among similar funds [3]. - The ETF closely tracks the Shenzhen benchmark market-making credit bond index, reflecting the operational characteristics of the credit bond market in Shenzhen [3].