值得注意的是，央行在"十一"长假前已对节后进行1.1万亿元买断式逆回购的操作进行了公告，释放了 呵护流动性宽松的政策信号，有效地稳定了市场预期，避免了因假期因素引发的市场对流动性波动的担 忧。 10月9日，央行以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展1.1万亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为3 个月（91天），加量续作3000亿元。 "十一"长假后，银行间市场资金回笼压力明显加大。10月9日至10日，公开市场逆回购到期量分别为 20633亿元和6000亿元，此外，10月还有8000亿元3个月期、5000亿元6个月期买断式逆回购以及7000亿 元MLF（中期借贷便利）到期。 四季度货币政策有望进一步发力 四季度流动性到期量较大，货币政策加力必要性提升。9月底国家发展改革委宣布，当前正在加快推进 5000亿元的新型政策性金融工具相关工作，预计后续会较大幅度地拉动配套贷款投放；当前股市强势运 行，10月居民存款"搬家"现象也会比较明显；另外，10月政府债券发行规模较大，都会在一定程度上带 来资金面收紧的效应。 天风证券固定收益谭逸鸣团队认为，10月资金面整体或有望延续"先松后紧"的季节性表现。10月上旬， 支撑主要在于 ...

王青预计，央行本月将对到期的MLF进行等量或小幅加量续做。总体上看，未来一段时间央行会综合 运用买断式逆回购、MLF两项货币政策工具，持续向市场注入流动性。 （文章来源：证券日报） Wind资讯数据显示，10月份还将有5000亿元6个月期买断式逆回购到期以及7000亿元MLF（中期借贷便 利）到期。回顾央行近期的操作，7月份至9月份，MLF、买断式逆回购单月合计净投放分别为3000亿 元、6000亿元、6000亿元。 中信证券首席经济学家明明在接受《证券日报》记者采访时预计，参考三季度以来央行对于流动性宽松 的支持力度，以及配合后续财政发力的必要性，预计10月份央行MLF以及买断式逆回购等货币政策工 具的操作力度将延续，资金利率和政策利率利差或保持稳定。 为保持银行体系流动性充裕，10月9日，中国人民银行（以下简称"央行"）以固定数量、利率招标、多 重价位中标方式开展了11000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为3个月（91天）。由于本月有8000亿元3个 月期买断式逆回购到期，这也就意味着10月份3个月期买断式逆回购净投放3000亿元。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青对《证券日报》记者表示，央行通过买断式逆回购向银行 ...

为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2025年10月9日，中国人民银行（以下简称"央行"）以固定数量、利率招 标、多重价位中标方式开展11000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为3个月（91天）。 展望10月，财通证券首席经济学家孙彬彬分析，流动性缺口或和9月相当，但考虑到10月央行或重启国 债买卖，以及四季度多数情况下资金利率中枢低于三季度，10月资金利率中枢至少会下移至7月至8月水 平，且波动有所降低。 央行行长潘功胜此前在国新办发布会上表示，往前看，央行将根据宏观经济运行的情况和形势变化，综 合运用多种货币政策工具，保证流动性充裕，促进社会综合融资成本下降，支持提振消费、扩大有效投 资，巩固和增强经济回升向好的态势，维护金融市场的稳定运行，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的 基本稳定。 据了解，中国人民银行货币政策委员会第三季度例会提到，建议加强货币政策调控，提高前瞻性、针对 性、有效性，根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，把握好政策实施的力度和节奏，抓好各项 货币政策措施执行，充分释放政策效应。保持流动性充裕，引导金融机构加大货币信贷投放力度，使社 会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配。 ...

Market Performance - In September, the ChiNext Index surged by 12.04%, while the STAR 50 Index rose by 11.48%, indicating strong performance in the A-share market [1] - Over 3,800 stocks increased in value during the third quarter, accounting for more than 70% of all A-shares, with over 1,000 stocks rising more than 30% and over 90 stocks doubling in value [1] - The electronic industry had the highest number of stocks with over 20 doubling, followed by the machinery and equipment sector with over 10 [1] Liquidity and Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a buyout reverse repurchase operation of 1.1 trillion yuan, aimed at maintaining liquidity in the banking system [2] - In October, 8,000 billion yuan of 3-month reverse repos are set to mature, with expectations for the PBOC to conduct additional operations to inject liquidity [3] - Analysts suggest that the PBOC's actions signal a commitment to maintaining liquidity and supporting government bond issuance, which is crucial for meeting credit financing needs [3] Market Outlook - Institutions express optimism about the continuation of market trends, with a focus on balancing defensive and offensive strategies while being cautious of valuation pressures in certain tech stocks [4][7] - The upcoming third-quarter reports are expected to attract capital towards sectors with strong performance indicators, particularly in technology and advanced manufacturing [6] - The market is currently characterized by a liquidity surplus, which is expected to support ongoing market stability and performance [6] Sector Performance - Historical data indicates a high probability of market gains following the National Day holiday, with a 70% chance of the Shanghai Composite Index rising on the first trading day after the holiday [1] - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan suggests that October is likely to see a resurgence in structural market trends, driven by technological advancements and long-term policy initiatives [5] - Investment strategies are shifting towards sectors like new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and manufacturing, with a notable rotation observed in the market [6]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is set to conduct a 1.1 trillion yuan reverse repo operation on October 9, with a term of 3 months, to maintain liquidity in the banking system [2] - In October, there will be 8 billion yuan of 3-month reverse repos maturing, and the PBOC's operation indicates an increase of 300 billion yuan in this category [2] - The market anticipates another 6-month reverse repo operation due to 500 billion yuan of 6-month reverse repos maturing in October [2] Group 2 - The PBOC's actions are influenced by the large-scale issuance of government bonds and the acceleration of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools, which are expected to significantly boost loan disbursements [3] - Seasonal cash demand and increased fiscal deposits are expected to create a liquidity gap, prompting the PBOC to signal a supportive monetary policy through reverse repo operations [3][4] - The PBOC is likely to continue using both reverse repos and Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) tools to inject medium-term liquidity into the market [4]

中国人民银行9月24日消息，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，9月25日(周四)，中国人民银行将以固定数 量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展6000亿元MLF操作，期限为1年期。 ...

中国人民银行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展6000亿元MLF操作，期限为1年期。 为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2025年9月25日（周四），中国人民银行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重 价位中标方式开展6000亿元MLF操作，期限为1年期。 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 600 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a 6-month term on September 15, following a 10,000 billion yuan operation on September 5, indicating a proactive approach to liquidity management [1] - In September, there was a net injection of 300 billion yuan from reverse repos, marking the fourth consecutive month of increased reverse repo operations by the PBOC [1] - The PBOC's reverse repo operations in June to August had net injections of 200 billion yuan each month, followed by 300 billion yuan in September [1] Group 2 - The issuance of government bonds is at a peak in September, with commercial bank interbank certificates maturing at 35 trillion yuan, the second-highest level this year [2] - Analysts expect the PBOC to continue using reverse repos and Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) tools to inject liquidity into the market, especially in response to tightening liquidity conditions [2] - The 600 billion yuan reverse repo on September 15 is seen as effective support during the tax payment period, helping to manage overall liquidity pressure [2]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the Chinese government bond market and the central bank's strategies for managing liquidity through bond transactions [1][2][5]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Central Bank's Bond Buying Strategy**: The central bank's resumption of government bond buying aims to effectively manage liquidity, smooth out seasonal funding needs, and create a complete yield curve for reasonable distribution of funding costs across different maturities [1][5]. 2. **Challenges with Long-term Bonds**: The strategy of issuing long-term and ultra-long-term bonds in a low-interest environment has reduced the burden but poses challenges for liquidity management, necessitating the use of additional tools like reverse repos [1][6]. 3. **Historical Context**: The practice of government bond buying is not new; it has been used historically and is common in major economies like the U.S., where the Federal Reserve holds a significant amount of short-term treasury securities [3][4]. 4. **Market Impact**: The resumption of bond buying will have multiple effects on the market, including effective liquidity injection and aiding in the construction of a complete yield curve [5][11]. 5. **Current Liquidity Environment**: Compared to the previous year, the liquidity environment is more abundant and stable, with no significant yield curve flattening or inversion observed [11][12]. 6. **Future Strategies**: The "buy short, sell long" strategy is deemed unsuitable in the current environment due to the potential pressure it would place on long-term bond issuance [12][17]. 7. **Optimizing Tools**: Suggestions for optimizing the bond buying tools include increasing the circulation of government bonds in the secondary market, adjusting the holding structure between the central bank and commercial banks, and enhancing the use of derivative products [13][14]. 8. **Expected Net Buying Scale**: The expected net buying scale for the central bank is projected to be less than in 2024, with a monthly net buying amount around 100 billion [18]. Other Important Considerations - **Potential for Tool Resumption**: There is a high probability that liquidity management tools will be reintroduced, particularly in September, coinciding with significant government bond issuances [15][16]. - **Market Reactions**: Post-military parade, the equity market experienced declines, while the bond market's performance was less correlated, indicating that market movements are more influenced by expectations rather than actual participation [19][20]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights and implications discussed in the conference call regarding the Chinese government bond market and the central bank's liquidity management strategies.

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 1 trillion yuan reverse repo operation on September 5, aimed at maintaining ample liquidity in the banking system, with a term of 3 months (91 days) [1] - The operation aligns with market expectations, as 1 trillion yuan of 3-month reverse repos are set to mature on the same day, effectively continuing the same amount of reverse repos for the month [1] - In September, an additional 300 billion yuan of 6-month reverse repos are also due, with expectations for the PBOC to conduct another operation of this type, potentially increasing the amount [1] Group 2 - Analysts predict that the PBOC will continue the trend of increasing reverse repo operations to address tightening liquidity, with 300 billion yuan of Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) also maturing in September [2] - The combined use of MLF and reverse repos is expected to inject medium-term liquidity into the market, stabilizing market expectations and supporting government bond issuance [2] - Looking ahead, there are expectations for a potential reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut in the fourth quarter, along with a resumption of government bond trading, indicating a continued supportive monetary policy stance [2]