Core Viewpoint - The international crude oil market has experienced a significant decline in risk premium due to easing geopolitical tensions, particularly following the ceasefire agreement in the Middle East, which has reduced concerns over supply disruptions [1][3]. Supply Side Changes - The global crude oil supply landscape is undergoing subtle adjustments, with OPEC+ members showing differing compliance with production cuts, particularly Iraq and Kazakhstan exceeding their quotas, undermining the overall effectiveness of the reduction policy [4]. - The continuous growth of U.S. shale oil production, driven by technological advancements and cost control, is adding new variables to global supply, while non-OPEC oil-producing countries are also expanding their capacities, contributing to upward pressure on supply [4]. - OPEC+ faces challenges not only from external competition but also from increasing internal coordination difficulties, as core members like Saudi Arabia must balance price stability with market share [4]. Demand Outlook - Global economic slowdown is exerting substantial pressure on crude oil demand, with weak manufacturing activity and sluggish transportation fuel consumption in major economies [5]. - China's economic restructuring and energy transition are suppressing traditional oil demand, while the rapid development of renewable energy technologies is altering long-term energy consumption patterns, reducing reliance on fossil fuels [5]. - Seasonal factors are also impacting current demand, as the end of the summer driving season leads to a decline in gasoline consumption, compounded by cyclical adjustments in industrial production [5].

Report Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: June 26, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Iran and Israel both announced the end of the war, causing oil prices to continue falling [6] - In the first month of OPEC's increased production, 8 member countries basically achieved the planned production increase. Trump has expressed concerns about high oil prices, so there is a possibility that OPEC+ will further increase production [6] - In the June report, due to the suspension of the China-US tariff conflict, the expectation for crude oil demand has improved. However, as there is also an expected increase in supply from countries like Brazil and Guyana, the adjustment to the balance sheet is limited, and the market will maintain a stockpiling pattern in the second half of the year [6] - Short-term geopolitical situations may still change, and oil prices will remain highly volatile. Supported by the peak demand season, oil prices will be relatively strong in the third quarter. It is recommended to consider reverse spreads in operations. In the fourth quarter, the cost line of shale oil may be tested again [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: WTI's opening price was $67.74, closing at $65.01, with a high of $67.83, a low of $64.00, a decline of 5.11%, and a trading volume of 512,300 lots. Brent's opening price was $68.12, closing at $66.84, with a high of $69.37, a low of $65.93, a decline of 5.22%, and a trading volume of 645,800 lots. SC's opening price was 513 yuan/barrel, closing at 508.6 yuan/barrel, with a high of 516.8 yuan/barrel, a low of 500.2 yuan/barrel, a decline of 8.13%, and a trading volume of 304,000 lots [6][8] - **Operation Suggestions**: Consider reverse spreads in the third quarter and expect the fourth quarter to test the shale oil cost line [6] 2. Industry News - Guyana's oil production increased from 611,000 barrels per day in April to 667,000 barrels per day in May [8] - Trump stated that if Iran rebuilds its nuclear facilities, the US will take action again and that the cease - fire between Iran and Israel is progressing smoothly [8] - China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson said that China will take reasonable energy security measures based on its national interests [8] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventories, WTI and Brent fund positions, spot prices of WTI and Oman, US crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventories [10][11][18][23]

Report Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: June 25, 2025 [2] Core Viewpoints - Oil prices continued to decline due to Iran's missile attack on US bases in Qatar and Iraq and the expected cease - fire. In the short - term, geopolitical situations may change, and oil prices will remain highly volatile. The market will be in a state of inventory accumulation in the second half of the year. It is recommended to consider reverse spreads in the 3rd quarter, and oil prices may test the shale oil cost line in the 4th quarter [6][7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: WTI's opening price was $78/barrel, closing at $67.23/barrel, with a high of $78.4/barrel, a low of $66.6/barrel, a decline of 8.95%, and a trading volume of 70.42 million lots. Brent's opening price was $78.9/barrel, closing at $69.73/barrel, with a high of $79.4/barrel, a low of $98.64/barrel, a decline of 7.62%, and a trading volume of 78.92 million lots. SC's opening price was 566.9 yuan/barrel, closing at 518.6 yuan/barrel, with a high of 572.1 yuan/barrel, a low of 518.6 yuan/barrel, a decline of 9%, and a trading volume of 52.65 million lots [6] - **Supply - side**: In the first month of OPEC's increased production, 8 member countries basically completed the planned production increase. Considering Trump's concerns about high oil prices, OPEC+ may further increase production [7] - **Demand - side**: In the June report, due to the suspension of the Sino - US tariff conflict, the crude oil demand outlook improved. However, due to the expected supply growth in countries like Brazil and Guyana, the adjustment of the balance sheet was limited, and the market will accumulate inventory in the second half of the year [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: In the short - term, oil prices will be highly volatile. Consider reverse spreads in the 3rd quarter, and oil prices may test the shale oil cost line in the 4th quarter [7] 2. Industry News - Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu agreed to Trump's cease - fire plan with Iran. The Israeli Defense Forces detected missiles launched from Iran, and the defense system was activated. The Israeli Defense Minister instructed the military to strongly respond to Iran's cease - fire violations and conduct high - intensity strikes on targets in Tehran's core areas [8] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventories, WTI and Brent fund positions, various spot prices, US crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventories [10][12][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The repeated escalation of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the breakdown of the Iran nuclear negotiations, and the resulting conflicts in the Middle East support the strengthening of oil prices. The supply side is affected by geopolitical factors, with Iran's 3 million barrels per day of crude oil supply potentially threatened, and the market is worried about the obstruction of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, involving 16 million barrels per day of crude oil supply. Although eight OPEC+ producing countries plan to increase production, the actual production in April decreased month - on - month, indicating uncertainty in the production increase process. On the demand side, the US enters the driving season, and crude oil demand is expected to increase seasonally. Although China's crude oil processing demand declined in May, demand is expected to be further boosted with the suspension of tariffs and the expectation of pre - export rush. The report suggests holding long positions [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - on - Week View and Strategy - **Inventory**: US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 11.5 million barrels last week, the largest decline since the week of June 28, 2024, and the inventory level was the lowest since January. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) increased by 200,000 barrels. Gasoline and distillate inventories increased. US crude oil net imports decreased by 1.75 million barrels per day, and exports increased by 1.1 million barrels per day to 4.4 million barrels per day [4][20]. - **Supply**: Affected by geopolitical factors, Iran's 3 million barrels per day of crude oil supply may be threatened, and the market is worried about the obstruction of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, involving 16 million barrels per day of crude oil supply. The US crude oil production remained at 13.4 million barrels per day last week. Eight OPEC+ countries plan to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, and the cumulative production increase from April to July is expected to be 1.371 million barrels per day. However, the actual production in April decreased month - on - month, indicating uncertainty in the production increase process. There are also uncertainties in supply due to the Israel - Iran conflict, sanctions on Russian and Venezuelan crude oil, and the US shale oil production reaching its ceiling [4]. - **Demand**: The US refinery capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 93.2%, and the crude oil processing volume decreased by 364,000 barrels per day. As the summer driving season arrives, gasoline demand will increase. In May, China's crude oil processing slowed down, with a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%. Overall, the demand side is expected to increase steadily, with strong demand in the US and stable demand in China [4]. - **Strategy**: Hold long positions [4] 3.2. Balance Sheet and Industrial Chain Structure - **Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides detailed data on global crude oil production, consumption, and inventory changes from January 2024 to December 2025, including production and consumption in OPEC and non - OPEC countries, as well as OECD and non - OECD countries [6]. - **Industrial Chain Structure**: The report shows the industrial chain structure of crude oil, including the processing of crude oil through the atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit, and then further processing into various products such as naphtha, ethylene, propylene, etc. [9] 3.3. Futures - Spot Market - The report presents multiple charts related to the futures - spot market, including domestic and foreign price spreads, monthly spreads, and freight indices, etc., but no specific analysis of these data is provided [11][15][16] 3.4. Inventory - **US Inventory**: US commercial crude oil inventories decreased, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve increased slightly. The inventory level of Cushing decreased [4][20]. - **China Inventory**: In May, China's inventory increment decreased due to a decline in imported crude oil and a month - on - month decrease in crude oil processing demand. The INE crude oil warehouse receipts in the Shanghai Energy Exchange have recently remained at a low level, indicating a low level of deliverable warehouse receipts [25][28] 3.5. Supply Side - **OPEC Production**: OPEC's monthly report shows that the average daily crude oil production of OPEC+ in May was 41.23 million barrels, an increase of 180,000 barrels compared to April. Eight OPEC+ countries plan to increase production, but there is uncertainty in the production increase process [32][33]. - **US Production**: The US crude oil production remained at 13.4 million barrels per day last week. The US shale oil production has reached its ceiling, and the growth space is limited due to the reduction of capital expenditure by oil companies in the early stage. The US oil rig count, a leading indicator of future production, has remained at a stable level, indicating a low probability of future production increase [37][39]. 3.6. Demand Side - **China Demand**: In May, China's crude oil processing slowed down, but overall, the travel demand is strong, and it is expected to drive the recovery of crude oil consumption. China's crude oil imports in May were 46.6 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to May increased slightly year - on - year. The export of refined oil products in May was 4.409 million tons, a year - on - year decline [47][52][55]. - **US Demand**: The US refinery capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 93.2%, and the crude oil processing volume decreased. As the summer driving season arrives, gasoline demand is expected to increase, and the demand is slightly better than the same period last year [59][62].

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 19 日 热点品种 商品 力 涨 幅与增仓 原油： 欧佩克+同意 7 月份将石油产量提高 41.1 万桶/日，为连续第三个月增产，此次 增产与 5 月和 6 月的增产幅度相当。欧佩克+八个成员国将于 7 月 6 日举行下一 次会议，决定 8 月产量政策。据知情人士透露，沙特希望欧佩克+在未来几个月 继续加速石油增产，原油供给压力仍大。不过 OPEC+产量增长不及预期，近日加 拿大阿尔伯塔省的野火已经导致该省近 35 万桶重质原油日产量停产，美伊核协 议谈判陷入僵局，会谈已经无限期中止。美国继续加大对伊朗的制裁，以色列和 伊朗近期已经将袭击目标从核设施及军事设施扩大至能源设施。另外，近期以色 列和伊朗间的风险有所外溢，中东地缘风险加剧升温，美国石油钻井数量下降幅 度较大，美国原油产量预期下降，原油供给压力缓解。需求端，美国非农数据、 CPI 数据好于预期，中美经贸磋商机制首次会议上中美原则上达成协议框架，市 场风险偏好回升，美国进入传统出行旺季， ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 4.盘面：20日均线偏上，价格在均线上方；偏多 2025-06-13原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2507： 1.基本面：美国总统特朗普周四表示，美国仍然致力于通过外交手段解决伊朗核问题，但他补充说，伊朗 必须首先放弃发展核武器的希望；据外媒报道，以色列空军当地时间周四对伊朗进行了袭击。目前尚不清 楚袭击目标，但报道称德黑兰发生了爆炸；特朗普警告说，他可能很快会提高汽车关税，认为这可能会促 使汽车制造商加快在美国的投资；偏多 2.基差：6月12日，阿曼原油现货价为68.86美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为68.69美元/桶，基21.78元/ 桶，现货升水期货；偏多 ...

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 12 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite efforts by the Trump administration to increase U.S. oil production, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revised its forecast, predicting a decline in oil production by 2026 compared to 2025, marking the first downward adjustment since 2021 [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Oil Production Forecast - The EIA projects that U.S. oil production will average 13.42 million barrels per day in 2023, decreasing to 13.37 million barrels per day by 2026 [1][2]. - The EIA's previous forecast had anticipated a record high for 2026, indicating a significant shift in expectations [1]. - The decline in production is attributed to lower oil prices leading to reduced drilling activities, with the number of active drilling rigs falling to 442, the lowest level since October 2021 [2]. Group 2: Economic Factors Impacting Production - The ongoing low prices of WTI crude oil have pushed some shale oil producers below their breakeven points, leading to a decrease in capital expenditures and drilling investments [2][5]. - Producers require an oil price of approximately $65 per barrel to achieve profitability, while production costs for countries like Saudi Arabia and Russia are significantly lower [5]. - The combination of high inflation increasing drilling costs and the depletion of high-quality oil fields further complicates the production landscape for U.S. producers [1][5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The EIA anticipates that global oil production will outpace demand growth, leading to increased global oil inventories and downward pressure on prices [6]. - The projected average prices for WTI crude oil are $62.33 per barrel in 2024 and $55.58 per barrel in 2025, reflecting a bearish outlook [6]. - Despite the challenges faced by U.S. producers, global oil supply is expected to continue growing, potentially leading to a supply surplus [6][7]. Group 4: Strategic Contradictions - The Trump administration's energy strategy has been criticized for its inherent contradictions, as it seeks to boost production while also aiming for lower oil prices [4][5]. - Analysts suggest that the desire for both high production and low prices is unrealistic, indicating a fundamental conflict in the administration's approach to energy policy [4][5].

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2507： 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-06-11原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1.基本面：美国谈判代表表示，美中在伦敦举行的贸易磋商进展顺利，商务部长卢特尼克称，美国与中国 达成的贸易框架和落实计划，应能解决稀土和磁材的限制问题；美国能源信息署(EIA)在月度《短期能源展 望》报告中称，由于大宗商品价格下跌迫使钻井商以快于预期的速度减少钻机，美国明年的原油产量将下 降；欧盟委员会正式公布对俄罗斯的第十八轮制裁措施草案，建议将对俄罗斯的原油价格上限从每桶60美 元下调至45美元，欧盟成员国将于本周开始就该草案进行讨论；中性 2.基差：6月10日，阿曼原油现货价为67.09美元/桶，卡 ...

4月初，受美国推出所谓"对等关税"与OPEC+意外增产的双重影响，国际油价自75美元／桶一路跌破多 个重要支撑位，且两度下探至4年低点58美元／桶附近，跌幅超过20%，在众多风险资产中表现最为突 出。此后，随着贸易摩擦阶段性缓和，OPEC+延续加速投产，地缘局势动荡无序反复，原油消费开始 触底回升，油价在宏观、产业多空因素交织的复杂背景下进入区间窄幅震荡阶段，波动幅度缩小但节奏 凌乱。 供应端：在主动增产与被动减产中寻求平衡 5月31日，OPEC+的8个产油国宣布7月将继续增产，日产量增加41.1万桶。这是OPEC+连续第三个月加 快扩产步伐，4—7月累计恢复生产配额137万桶／日，此规模较最初计划提前半年达成，且在过去一段 时间内持续对油价走势形成抑制。 整体来看，OPEC+持续增产，一方面是为兑现复产承诺，另一方面也是因哈萨克斯坦等国超产而采取 的无奈惩罚措施。随着增产及油价下跌，这两个诉求均已达成。在本次会议上，俄罗斯、阿尔及利亚和 阿曼首次提出暂停增产，这一反对声音为未来OPEC+产量政策的调整预留了想象空间。 此外，基于各国生产情况、过往生产纪律以及后续补偿减产计划进行测算，到7月，这8个产油国的实 ...