光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 06 月 26 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | 国内基本面来看，5 月 PPI 同比-3.3%，较 4 月环比下滑；新增人民币贷款 | 震荡 | | | 6200 亿元人民币，比上年同期少增 3300 亿元。化债背景下信用收缩、需求 | | | | 不足仍是当前主要矛盾，指数很难突破中枢大幅上涨。另一方面，2025 年上 | | | | 半年企业盈利情况较 2024 年有明显改善，在配置型资金托底的背景下，A 股 | | | | 指数短期同样不会出现大幅下跌的走势。预期未来指数仍以震荡为主。 | | | | 国债期货收盘，30 年期主力合约跌 0.22%，10 年期主力合约跌 0.04%，2 年 | | | | 期主力合约涨 0.01%，5 年期主力合约基本持稳。中国央行开展 3653 亿元 7 | | | | 天期逆回购操作，利率持稳于 1.4%。公开市场有 1563 亿元逆回购到期，净 | | | | 投放 2090 亿元。2025 年 6 月 25 日中国人民银行将以固定 ...

首席点评：稳定币是机遇也是挑战 国际货币基金组织（ IMF）副总裁李波在2025年夏季达沃斯论坛上表示，稳定币的发展既存在机遇， 也存在挑战，核心挑战在于，如何对稳定币实施有效的监管，需要在全球范围内达成更多共识。欧洲央 行担忧，稳定币可能威胁金融稳定并影响数字欧元推行，但欧盟委员会认为风险可控。伊朗议会通过一 项法案，暂停伊朗与联合国核监督机构的合作。美国总统特朗普表示，美方将于下周与伊朗就一项潜在 的核协议展开会谈。美联储主席鲍威尔表示，目前经济形势存在高度不确定性，希望以实际数据为依 据，而不是过于自信地做出预测，某个时候美联储将会恢复降息。国务院总理表示当前国际经贸格局正 在发生深刻变化，我们应当坚定不移拥抱普惠包容的经济全球化，维护自由贸易和多边主义，促进世界 经济稳定发展。海外美股涨跌不一，美债收益率回落，原油止跌，国内夜盘能化、农产品、黑色板块多 数上涨。 重点品种：贵金属、股指、橡胶 贵金属：金银小幅反弹。以色列和伊朗同意全面停火，美国总统特朗普表示，美方将于下周与伊朗就一 项潜在的核协议展开会谈，但他多次强调自己并不认为这类协议 "有多必要"。美联储主席鲍威尔在国 会证词中表示，美联储目前处 ...

Group 1 - The rise of unilateralism and protectionism poses significant challenges to economic globalization, with trade uncertainties being a key factor affecting global economic development [1][2] - Despite geopolitical tensions and trade protection policies, there is a prevailing optimism about future development, emphasizing that no enterprise can benefit from tariffs in the long term [1][2] - Economic globalization is seen as an inevitable trend, requiring a collective effort to promote open, inclusive, and balanced development to ensure prosperity and stability for the world [1][3] Group 2 - Economic globalization is a necessary outcome of social productivity development and an objective requirement for optimizing global resource allocation, leading to deeper international division of labor and expanded global markets [2][3] - The emergence of new technologies, particularly in artificial intelligence, injects new momentum into economic globalization, while the rising influence of emerging markets and developing economies enhances their role in global governance [2][3] - Challenges such as insufficient growth momentum, governance lag, and imbalanced development highlight the need for a consensus on promoting economic globalization, addressing the uneven benefits across different countries and groups [2][3]

多年来，中国经济之所以是世界经济增长的重要引擎，不仅在于自身的稳定性和高成长性，还在于中国 经济的开放性和与世界经济的联动性。 中美重回贸易谈判桌，全球经济大咖们集结达沃斯论坛，其实是为了共同探求世界经济的未来之路。 面对不断变化的贸易格局，不断被冲击的全球化，世界经济如何驱散迷雾？中国经济又将如何发力？科 技创新和企业家精神能否解锁新动能？ 6月25日上午，国务院总理李强在天津出席2025年夏季达沃斯论坛开幕式并致辞。 据新华社消息，李强表示，我们应当顺应正道和大势，拿出智慧和担当，采取积极的态度和建设性的行 动，坚定不移拥抱普惠包容的经济全球化。 中国将一如既往欢迎各国企业来华投资兴业，期待大家在这里实现梦想、获得成功，伴随中国经济一路 行稳致远。 改革开放以来，在积极参与全球化的过程中，中国融入了全球贸易体系，逐步发展成为"世界工厂"，为 全球市场提供了更加高效、稳定的产业链、供应链。 中国企业也在不断地刷新在全球化进程中的角色，不管是"引进来"还是"走出去"，本质都是全球化的一 部分。 在变局中，中国经济之所以能够保持稳定增长的态势，一方面在于全球产业链布局深度调整的背景下， 产业配套的高质量、高效率 ...

6月25日上午，国务院总理李强在天津出席2 0 2 5年夏季达沃斯论坛开幕式 并致辞。 李强表示，当前国际经贸格局正在发生深刻变化。 中国将继续 积极融入全球市场，为世界经济所需贡献中国经济所能。 来源丨新华社 编辑丨丁开艳 责编丨兰银帆 往期回顾 Review of Past Articles - 01 潘功胜：区域国家团结一致应对美关税冲击｜宏观经济 李强表示，中国将继续积极融入全球市场，为世界经济所需贡献中国经济所能。多年来，中国经济之所 以是世界经济增长的重要引擎，不仅在于自身的稳定性和高成长性，还在于中国经济的开放性和与世界 经济的联动性。中国经济持续稳健增长，将为世界经济加快复苏提供有力支撑。中国市场持续扩容提 质，将为国际经贸扭转颓势创造增量空间。中国创新持续突破跃升，将为全球发展摆脱动能不足注入新 的活力。 李强强调，这次论坛以"新时代企业家精神"为主题，具有重要现实意义。新时代需要企业家们发挥更大 作用、展现更大作为。希望大家多行大道之事，多干开拓之事，多做共赢之事。中国政府将持续打造市 场化、法治化、国际化一流营商环境，也将始终敞开怀抱，热诚欢迎各国企业投资中国、深耕中国，与 中国一起发展 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of embracing inclusive economic globalization and maintaining free trade and multilateralism to promote stable global economic development [1][2]. Group 1: International Economic Landscape - The current international economic and trade landscape is undergoing profound changes, with a more diversified trade system and the rapid rise of global South powers [1]. - Traditional trade growth is slowing down, while emerging trade is experiencing counter-cyclical growth [1]. - There is an increase in regional cooperation amidst the challenges faced by global mechanisms, and cross-border investment is experiencing downward volatility [1]. Group 2: China's Role in Global Economy - China aims to actively integrate into the global market and contribute to the world economy, leveraging its stability, high growth, and openness [2]. - The continuous and robust growth of the Chinese economy is expected to provide strong support for the global economic recovery [2]. - China's expanding and improving market will create new opportunities for international trade [2]. Group 3: Entrepreneurial Spirit and Business Environment - The forum's theme, "Entrepreneurial Spirit in the New Era," highlights the need for entrepreneurs to play a larger role and achieve greater accomplishments [2]. - The Chinese government is committed to creating a first-class business environment characterized by marketization, rule of law, and internationalization [2]. - China welcomes foreign enterprises to invest and deepen their engagement in the Chinese market, aiming for mutual development and a better future [2].

Core Viewpoint - The 16th Davos Forum highlighted the profound changes in the global economic, political, and security landscape, emphasizing the rise of trade protectionism and geopolitical conflicts impacting global supply chains and economic fragmentation [2]. Group 1: Economic Challenges and Responses - The disruption of supply chains is a global issue, necessitating China's contribution to stabilizing the entire industrial and supply chain [2]. - China should transform the pressures from trade wars into opportunities for industrial restructuring and upgrading [2]. - The need for traditional industries in China to undergo further transformation and upgrading over the next decade was emphasized [2]. Group 2: Strategic Emerging Industries - Seven major strategic emerging industries must achieve qualitative improvements to gradually dominate global markets, including new-generation information technology, biotechnology, new materials, and new energy vehicles [3]. - Future industries should receive targeted support and guidance, particularly in AI technology and life sciences [4]. Group 3: Global Economic Recovery - Many companies face difficulties in global expansion, which could significantly impact global economic recovery and growth [4]. - The turning point for the global economy may arise from significant setbacks, leading countries to return to correct economic paths [4]. - According to the theory of comparative advantage, countries should leverage their strengths to produce high-quality, cost-effective products, forming a beneficial global supply chain [4].

据世界经济论坛对多位机构首席经济学家的最新调查显示，当前全球经济发展前景不容乐观。对此，专 家学者有着怎样的思考和建议？如何看待地缘经济格局变化和技术加速演进背景下的全球经济增长前 景？6月24日，在第十六届夏季达沃斯论坛上，与会人士就此展开了深入讨论。 同时，与会专家普遍认为，经济全球化大势难以逆转。"经济全球化有力促进了世界商业繁荣和经济发 展，当前这个进程受阻，是众多跨国企业不愿意看到的局面，因为他们的业务及其增长都是基于经济全 球化。"波士顿咨询集团董事总经理兼高级合伙人阿帕那·巴拉德瓦杰表示，很多国家包括欧洲和"全球 南方"国家，都在鼓励本国企业参与全球化竞争，希望本国企业具有全球竞争力，众多企业也在迎头赶 上。 萨蒂拉泰介绍说，"从东南亚的情况看，经济全球化在加强而不是减弱。"疫情后东南亚旅游业快速恢 复，资本逐渐流入，越来越多国际化人才进入，当地消费者也从全球购买商品，世界很关注东南亚市 场。 "未来，经济全球化依然会存在，但其进程将深化，发展方式也将改变。"巴拉德瓦杰认为，跨国企业需 要适应更为复杂的国际化规则，包括如何更好地利用本地合作关系去开展业务，更好地融合"在地 化"和"全球化"。 （ ...

Group 1: Global Economic Challenges - The global economy is facing significant challenges, including rising protectionism, unilateralism, and trade barriers, leading to a serious backlash against globalization [2][3] - The World Bank has downgraded the global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 2.7% to 2.3%, with nearly 70% of economies experiencing a reduction in growth rates [2] - The UN Conference on Trade and Development reported an 11% decline in global foreign direct investment for 2024, marking the second consecutive year of decline [2] Group 2: China's Role in Global Economy - Amid global economic uncertainties, China is providing more opportunities through its development and high-level openness, becoming a stabilizing force in the international landscape [4] - In Q1 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.4%, surpassing many forecasts, with key economic indicators like industrial output and retail sales showing steady growth [4] - China's total import and export value reached 43.85 trillion yuan in 2024, a 5% increase year-on-year, solidifying its position as the world's largest trading nation [4] Group 3: International Cooperation and Future Outlook - The World Economic Forum emphasizes the urgency of effective global cooperation in light of deepening geopolitical and economic divides [7] - The forum's agenda includes critical topics such as global economic interpretation, China's outlook, industry changes, and sustainable energy, addressing pressing global concerns [7] - Historical trends show that economic globalization has led to significant advancements, and the future requires countries to embrace openness and cooperation for mutual benefit [8]

图为"国家发展改革委与跨国企业交流会（福州站）——与美在华跨国企业高层圆桌会"现场。新华社记者张晓洁 摄 新华社福州6月22日电 记者手记：跨国企业参与了一场别开生面的交流会 新华社记者张晓洁、魏玉坤 盛夏时节，福建福州。中国美国商会、美中贸易全国委员会和包括美资企业在内的近80家跨国公司及福建民营企业代表等共百余人日前齐聚 榕城，参加"国家发展改革委与跨国企业交流会（福州站）——与美在华跨国企业高层圆桌会"。 "外企在福州数字经济方面有哪些发展机遇""医疗健康和绿色低碳领域如何更好合作""怎样在互惠互利中实现更大发展"……记者在会议现场 看到，代表们手中拿着会议材料，不时低声交流，眼里充满对政策解读和合作机遇的期待。 共话打造开放新高地，共谋合作发展新机遇。面对经济全球化的深度调整，中国正以全方位、多维度的战略优势为跨国公司构筑投资热土。 商务部发布的数据显示，2025年1月份至5月份，全国新设立外商投资企业24018家，同比增长10.4%。 "当前中国经济展现出强大的发展韧性和潜力，将为各国企业提供广阔的发展空间。"国家发展改革委副主任李春临说，中国政策工具箱储备 充足，宏观政策留有后手，欢迎各国企业深耕 ...