Group 1 - Trump's announcement to increase tariffs on almost all Japanese goods from 10% to 25% starting August 1 has significant implications for Japanese exporters [1][3] - Japanese automobile exports to the U.S. saw a dramatic decline of 26.7% in June, with companies like Toyota and Honda facing pressure to raise prices, resulting in a profit reduction of 30% [1][3] - The increase in tariffs could lead to a loss of $3,125 in profit per vehicle for Japanese automakers, potentially causing Japan's GDP to decline by 0.2%, which is substantial given the previous year's growth of only 0.1% [3][6] Group 2 - Analysts predict that if Japanese companies attempt to pass on tariff costs to U.S. consumers, sales could drop by 8% to 26%, further squeezing profits by 6% to 59% [6] - The appreciation of the yen exacerbates the situation, with every 1 yen increase resulting in a loss of 50 billion yen for Toyota [6] - Japanese officials, including Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, have taken a firm stance against U.S. demands, emphasizing the importance of protecting key industries such as agriculture and automotive [6][9] Group 3 - Japan's reliance on the U.S. market is significant, with Japanese cars accounting for one-third of the U.S. automotive market, indicating that a withdrawal could lead to higher prices for American consumers [8][9] - Japan has potential countermeasures, including selling off U.S. Treasury bonds and accelerating free trade talks with China and South Korea [9]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Commerce announced a 93.5% anti-dumping duty on imported graphite from China, resulting in a total tariff rate of 160%, significantly impacting $347.1 million worth of imports in 2023 [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Impact - The anti-dumping duty is based on claims that Chinese graphite products, essential for electric vehicle batteries, are sold below fair market value in the U.S. [1]. - The trade organization representing U.S. active anode material manufacturers argues that this practice undermines the competitiveness of local suppliers [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Graphite is a critical material in the manufacturing of electric vehicle batteries, specifically as the main component of battery anodes [4]. - The U.S. relies heavily on imports for graphite, with approximately 180,000 tons imported last year, two-thirds of which came from China [4]. Group 3: Future Uncertainty - The preliminary ruling by the U.S. Department of Commerce is not final, with a conclusive decision expected by December 5, creating uncertainty for U.S. automakers [4]. - Anticipation of increased graphite prices due to tariffs poses challenges for automotive manufacturers, whose profit margins are already declining [4].

日本经济再生大臣赤泽亮正：周六没有与美国财长贝森特就关税问题进行讨论。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of tariffs on inflation in the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate adjustments in light of these developments [1][4][6]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Inflation - The June Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.3% month-on-month, marking the largest increase since January, with a year-on-year growth of 2.7%, influenced primarily by rising gasoline prices and housing costs [3]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) remained flat in June, but a 0.3% increase in goods costs suggests inflationary effects from tariffs, particularly in consumer electronics, furniture, and appliances [3][4]. - Market expectations indicate that the inflation effects from tariffs will become more pronounced in the CPI reports for July and August, as companies are still selling goods accumulated before the tariffs were announced [3][4]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Position - The Federal Reserve aims to restore inflation to 2% or lower, but the highest tariff levels in decades complicate this goal, potentially leading to increased inflation depending on the magnitude and duration of the tariffs [4][5]. - Fed officials, including key members, express a preference to observe summer inflation data before making any rate cuts, with a current probability of a July rate cut at only 5.3% [7][8]. - Some Fed members suggest that the full impact of tariffs on prices may take time to materialize, indicating that any rate cuts are more likely to occur in response to economic or labor market fluctuations rather than inflation targets [9].

智通财经APP获悉，芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比周五接受媒体采访时，对美联储主席鲍威尔表达坚定支 持，并强调央行独立性对经济至关重要。他表示，鲍威尔是一位"极具操守的人"，并称"几乎所有经济 学家都一致认为，央行应独立于政治干预，否则将对通胀、增长与就业市场造成不利影响。" 古尔斯比此番表态正值特朗普及其盟友对鲍威尔施压加剧之际。特朗普批评鲍威尔对利率政策"过于谨 慎"，对其"观望"态度及对关税通胀风险的担忧表示不满，甚至近期有传闻称特朗普有意解职鲍威尔， 尽管他本人对此予以否认，却也未完全排除这一可能性。 古尔斯比在接受采访时强调："在那些央行缺乏独立性的国家，通胀普遍更高，经济增长更弱，失业更 严重。"他直言，"当听到有人讨论是否应剥夺美联储的独立性时，我感到非常痛心，因为这种讨论只会 带来负面影响。" 除了政治施压，鲍威尔近期也面临来自特朗普阵营的新一轮质疑。白宫官员拿美联储总部25亿美元的翻 修项目说事，质疑鲍威尔是否在国会作证时如实说明相关资金用途，意图借此削弱其公信力。 美联储独立性问题近期再度成为美国政坛与市场关注焦点。 当被问及是否支持在今年秋季降息时，古尔斯比表示，如果未来几个月通胀数据继续温和， ...

周五美股涨跌互现，市场权衡美国总统特朗普对欧盟征税前景。截至收盘，道指跌142.30点，跌幅为 0.32%，报44342.19点，纳指涨10.01点，涨幅为0.05%，报20895.66点；标普500指数跌0.57点，跌幅为 0.01%，报6296.79点。 本周道指下跌0.07%，纳指周涨1.51%，标普500指数周涨0.59%。 市场概述 媒体援引三位知情人士报道称，美国总统特朗普将大力推动在与欧盟达成的任何协议中将最低关税设在 15%-20%。 本周道指下跌0.07%，纳指周涨1.51%，标普500指数周涨0.59%。 *三大股指分化，道指跌0.3%； *密歇根大学7月消费者信心指数好于预期； *业绩超预期，奈飞逆势跌超5%。 本周开始的财报季将展示关税是如何影响公司业务。根据LSEG I/B/E/S的数据，在已经公布收益的59家 标普500指数公司中，81.4%的公司的收益超过了华尔街的预期。 奈飞跌5.2%，流媒体巨头第二季度营收为110.8亿美元，同比增长17.3%，每股收益（EPS）7.19 美元， 去年同期4.88美元。奈飞对当前季度给出了乐观指引：预计营收将达115.3亿美元，超过分析师预期 ...

美联储古尔斯比：需就关税问题达成一些共识，才能更好地理解其对通胀的影响。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the ongoing announcements regarding tariffs indicate that tariffs cannot be interpreted as a one-time price increase [1] Group 2 - The implications of continuous tariff announcements suggest a persistent impact on pricing rather than a temporary spike [1]

美国总统特朗普：当我发出信函，上面写明征收35%、40%关税的时候，那就是协议了。 ...

【导读】美股震荡，中国资产大涨 大家周末好，今晚美股下跌，中概股集体大涨！ 美股震荡 7月18日晚间，美股三大指数走势震荡，道琼斯指数下跌100点，纳斯达克指数以及标普500指数基本持平。 周五公布的数据显示，消费者对关税引发的通胀担忧降至2月以来的最低水平。密歇根大学7月消费者调查显示，整体消费者信心指数环比6月上升 1.8%，达到61.8，符合预期并创下自2月以来最高水平。 消费者预计未来一年物价年涨幅为4.4%，低于上月的5%，为2月以来最低水平；对未来5至10年的通胀预期也降至3.6%，同样是五个月以来的最低值。 不过，对关税的担忧仍在限制消费者对经济前景的乐观情绪。 该项调查的负责人Joanne Hsu在声明中表示："消费者对商业环境、劳动力市场，甚至自身收入的预期，仍然弱于一年前。尽管如此，过去两个月消费 者信心的回升表明，他们认为4月和5月曾预期的最坏情况的风险有所缓解。" 消费者对个人当前财务状况的评价有所上升，这可能受到股市上涨的推动。此次调查于7月14日结束，即美国总统特朗普签署预算法案、延长减税政策 并为小费行业工人新增减税优惠逾一周之后。 不过，Hsu指出，如果宣布加征更多关税或通胀回 ...