大家周末，今晚继续关注海外市场的消息。 美股震荡 5月16日晚间，美股走势震荡，三大指数微涨。 自本周早些时候中美官员同意在关税措施上达成90天的停战协议以来，股市强势反弹，投资者对于全球贸易紧张局势升级以及经济风险 上升的担忧有所缓解。 特朗普称美国将在数周内 截至本周，标普500指数上涨了4.5%，道指上涨2.6%，纳指本周迄今已跃升逾6%。周四，标普500和道指双双收高，纳指则小幅回落。 确定对其他国家的关税税率 特朗普声称有"150个国家和地区希望达成协议"。他没有说明具体有多少国家，或是哪些国家将收到信函。他补充说，这些收到信函的国 家"可以提出申诉"，但没有解释这一申诉程序将如何进行。 Certuity首席投资官斯科特·韦尔奇表示："我们认为市场正在进入一个新的阶段，波动性将加大，而那些市值巨大的科技股将不再轻易主 导市场表现。我们并不看空这些股票，只是认为当前进行多元化配置是更明智的做法。" 特朗普表示，他将在"未来两到三周内"为美国的贸易伙伴设定关税税率，并称其政府目前没有能力与所有贸易伙伴同时展开谈判。 特朗普于4月2日宣布对数十个贸易伙伴加征关税，但随后在投资者恐慌情绪下将措施暂缓90天， ...

科技股虽然曾一度大幅受压，但在美国市场中仍将继续扮演重要角色。DWS预期，科技股的表现将对 标普500指数的走势举足轻重。在企业债券方面，DWS亦偏好欧洲市场，特别是投资级别债券，因其风 险低于高收益债券，当市场风险上升时，收益差距可能再次扩大，对后者的价格造成更大压力。 关税措施与随之而来的不确定性及物价上涨，预料将于今明两年对大多数国家的经济增长构成压力。作 为关税战发动国，美国或需承受最大冲击。DWS已将美国2025年的经济增长预测由2.0%下调至1.2%。 至于欧元区，DWS亦把增长预测下调0.2个百分点至0.8%。 鉴于估值差距持续处于极高水平，同时投资者重新配置资产后，预料资金将从美国流向欧洲，目前欧洲 股市的前景较美国股市佳。DWS在重新调整预测后，将2026年3月泛欧指数Stoxx600的目标点数，由 570点轻微下调至550点。 DWS全球首席投资总监Vincenzo Vedda发布对市场与宏观经济及各资产类别的主要观点。市场预期特朗 普关税对经济的打击会较原先预计的温和，令股市于4月中下旬显著反弹。然而，美国政府目前转变频 繁的政治路线，势必会在经济增长及资本市场上留下明显影响。DWS将因 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices in London decreased to $3,224.45 per ounce, a decline of 0.47%, with an opening price of $3,238.66, a high of $3,251.82, and a low of $3,214.70 during the trading session [1] - Technical analysis indicates that as long as gold prices remain below the 21-day moving average (SMA) of $3,308, there is a risk of further decline, with the current test of the 50-day SMA support level at $3,155 [3] - The relative strength index (RSI) is below the midline at approximately 44, suggesting potential for further downward movement, but a rebound could occur if prices hold above the $3,155 support level, targeting the 21-day SMA at $3,308 [3] Group 2: UK Economic Outlook - Analysts from MUFG noted a muted response of the British pound to improved UK economic growth data, indicating cautious interpretation of the data, which showed a 0.7% growth in Q1 following a 0.1% growth in the previous quarter [2] - HSBC reported that despite the 0.7% growth in Q1 exceeding expectations, the UK economy may face a downturn due to global uncertainties, with potential declines in trade and increased labor costs impacting businesses [2] - The Bank of England is expected to interpret the Q1 growth as support for a "cautious and gradual" approach to interest rate cuts, with a projected growth of 0.6% [2]

泰国财政部长：由于关税措施，未来两年经济增长可能放缓。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent bribery scandal involving Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has raised concerns about his leadership and the upcoming July Senate elections, with his approval ratings declining significantly [1][3]. Group 1: Bribery Scandal - Shigeru Ishiba has been accused of accepting illegal political donations totaling 30 million yen from a Tokyo real estate company over the past decade, which were provided in the form of banquet tickets and election campaign funds [1][3]. - The scandal has prompted a collective response from opposition parties, with calls for Ishiba's resignation becoming more pronounced [3]. - The political funding report, which is crucial for transparency in Japanese politics, has not included these donations, further eroding public trust [3][4]. Group 2: Political Context - The upcoming Senate elections on July 3 will see 315 candidates vying for 248 seats, with Ishiba's Liberal Democratic Party needing at least 125 seats to maintain a majority [6]. - The previous "black money scandal" has already weakened the ruling coalition's position, leading to significant losses in the October 2024 House of Representatives elections [6]. - Ishiba's government is currently perceived as a minority government, facing challenges in regaining public trust and addressing the fallout from past scandals [6][4]. Group 3: Economic Concerns - Ishiba's administration is also grappling with the impact of U.S. tariffs on Japanese industries, particularly the automotive sector, with limited progress in negotiations [7]. - Japan's GDP for the first quarter is expected to show signs of contraction, indicating economic weakness prior to the full impact of U.S. tariffs [7].

日本首相石破茂12日在谈及美国关税措施对日本汽车等产业的影响时表示，日方将采取"万全之策"应对 美方关税，如有必要将毫不犹豫采取额外措施。据日本媒体报道，石破茂当天在日本众议院预算委员会 会议上说，不能接受在不包含汽车领域的情况下与美方达成协议，也不会为了汽车产业而牺牲农业、以 扩大进口美国大米作为谈判筹码。石破茂当天还在自民党会议上表示，希望日美关税谈判能在确保日本 国家利益的基础上取得成果。日美目前已举行两轮关税谈判，日方持续要求美方重新审视关税措施，但 美方一直坚持不能在汽车、钢铁等产品上给予日本"特殊待遇"。(新华社) ...

巴西财长：我们与美国进行了坦率的会谈。美国财长贝森特承认，对美存在顺差的国家在关税措施中受 到的影响存在不均衡，并表示有意愿进行对话。 ...

美联储威廉姆斯：在关税措施实施之前存在一定的提前预购现象。 ...

美联储理事巴尔：关税措施将导致美国通胀上升，并在今年晚些时候引发美国及海外经济增长放缓。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate, but the statement released after the meeting shows significant changes compared to March, highlighting the impact of net export fluctuations, increased uncertainty in the economic outlook, and rising risks of inflation and unemployment [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged reflects a cautious approach amid rising economic uncertainties [1] - Chairman Powell emphasized the need for patience regarding interest rate cuts, considering the increased uncertainty in the economic outlook and tariff measures pushed by President Trump [1] - The statement from the Federal Reserve now includes references to the volatility of net exports and the associated risks to the economic outlook [1]