作为全球圣诞用品主要集散地，义乌今年的圣诞用品订单如何？记者近日在义乌走访调研发现，义乌圣 诞用品订单生产进入高峰期，企业正加班加点赶订单，有些企业仓库已出现"爆仓"情况，"目前，我们 的订单已排到7月底，5月和6月的订单属于极度饱和状态，正在加班加点赶订单，由于大量的订单都排 进来生产，仓库目前也比较紧张。" 极羽科技提供的数据显示，上海至洛杉矶航线，马士基5月26日开航航次报价，已达到3705美元/FEU， 较5月12日报价上涨了96%。 海运+物流港口相关港股企业： 中远海控（601919）(01919)、中远海发（601866）(02866)、太平洋航运(02343)、东方海外国际 (00316)、中集集团（000039）(02039)、海丰国际(01308)等。 货运代理也忙着订舱，对美海运迎来一波"抢运潮"。厦门一家服装企业负责人告诉记者，他们对美业务 占到了外贸业务的三成以上。 受到此前高关税影响，一个多月来，这些美国的订单全部暂停生产，涉及订单金额300万元左右。中美 大幅互降关税后，美国客户就催着他们赶快恢复生产供应。 厦门海沧区一家货运代理企业企业负责人介绍，从4月中旬开始，他们在厦门的仓 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent news indicates a neutral sentiment in the market, suggesting that A-shares are likely to experience a narrow range of fluctuations in the upcoming trading session [2] Group 1: Key Messages - The announcement of new tariff rates by the U.S. is aimed at streamlining negotiations with less significant trade partners, which is not considered a negative for China [1] - Moody's downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating from AAA to AA1 marks a significant shift, as it is the last major rating agency to downgrade the U.S., potentially impacting market sentiment [1] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is deepening reforms in the mergers and acquisitions market to stimulate activity and encourage private equity participation, which could benefit high-tech startups and small-cap companies [1] - A joint statement from seven departments emphasizes the role of fiscal policies in leveraging financial resources to support technological innovation, highlighting the urgency of domestic chip production amid U.S. export control measures [1]

宏观 证券研究报告 中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明超预期 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 19 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：陈江月 执业证书：S1030520060001 电话：0755-83199599-9055 邮箱：chenjy@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 [Table_ReportType] 宏观周报（5 月第 3 周） [Table_S 核心观点： ummary] 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 5) 风险提示：基本面超预期弱化、中美谈判进度不及预期。 [Table_Industry] [Table_Title] [Table_Report] [Table_BaseData] 经济预测（一致预期） 单位（%） 2409E 24E GDP（Q3E） CPI PPI 工业增加值增速 固定投资增速 社消增速 出口增速 进口增速 M2 增速 社融增速 数据来源：万得资讯 1) 权益：上周市场缩量上涨。关税动态方面，中美日内瓦经贸 会谈联合声明超预期，但由于 24%部分暂停的关税后续贸易谈 判难度较大，谈判窗口期后仍然有重新启动的风险，针对芬 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年5月19日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1、基本面：周五，贸易商商谈为主，个别聚酯工厂有递盘，5月主流在09+185~205附近成交，个别略高，价格商谈区间在 4955~5025附近。6月在09+160~170有成交。今日主流现货基差在09+192。中性 2、基差：现货4990，09合约基差221，盘面贴水 偏多 3、库存：PTA工厂库存4.28天，环比减少0.23天 偏多 4、盘面：20日均线向上，收盘价收于20日均线之上 偏多 5、主力持仓：净空 空增 偏空 MEG 每日观点 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 6、预期：短期内聚酯库存向下转移，聚酯库存压力缓解下，负荷维持，PTA供需去库周期 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - The majority of Asia-Pacific stock markets recorded gains last week, with the Jakarta Composite Index leading with a weekly increase of 4.01% [1] - Other notable performances include the Nikkei 225 Index rising by 0.67%, the KOSPI Index increasing by 1.92%, and the S&P/ASX200 Index up by 1.37% [1][2] - Most Asia-Pacific stock markets have seen five consecutive weeks of increases, although some indices experienced slight pullbacks [2] Group 2: Economic Factors - The reduction of bilateral tariffs between the US and China has alleviated market tensions and boosted investor confidence, contributing to the rise in Asia-Pacific stock markets [2] - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April showed a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, lower than the expected 2.4%, which has led to increased expectations for interest rate cuts [2][3] - Economic fundamentals, such as better-than-expected export growth in China and Japan, are providing internal support for the rise in Asia-Pacific stock markets [2][3] Group 3: Foreign Investment - There has been a significant influx of foreign capital into Asia-Pacific markets, with overseas investors net buying over 8 trillion yen (approximately $57 billion) in Japanese stocks and bonds in April, the highest level since 2005 [3] - Thailand's stock market also saw strong foreign interest, with international funds net buying $9.95 million in Thai stocks, marking the highest level since February [4] Group 4: Currency Trends - Despite the rise in stock markets, most Asia-Pacific currencies depreciated against the US dollar last week, with the Thai baht down 1.12% and the Singapore dollar down 0.19% [5] - The future performance of Asia-Pacific currencies will largely depend on US Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations and China's economic policies [5] Group 5: Central Bank Actions - Central banks in Thailand and Malaysia may consider interest rate cuts to support their economies, while Indonesia and the Philippines have less incentive to lower rates [6] - The IMF has noted that Singapore's fiscal and monetary policies are adequately supporting its economy, with sufficient fiscal space to provide targeted support if needed [5] Group 6: Trade Dynamics - South Korea's exports to China have rebounded, with exports to China accounting for 21.8% of total exports in early May, driven by stable demand and deepening industrial ties [7][8] - Cooperation between Chinese and South Korean companies in sectors like electric vehicles and cosmetics is enhancing trade, with significant growth in exports of related materials and products [8]

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in the market share of the analyzed sector, with a growth rate of 91% in the last quarter, indicating strong demand and potential for further expansion [2][4]. - The report projects a 24% increase in revenue for the upcoming fiscal year, driven by strategic initiatives and market trends [2][4]. - Inflation rates are expected to stabilize around 2.3%, which may influence consumer spending and investment strategies within the industry [4]. Industry Overview - The industry is experiencing a robust growth trajectory, with key performance indicators showing a consistent upward trend in market demand and profitability [2][4]. - The report notes that the sector's performance is closely tied to global economic conditions, particularly in relation to commodity prices and supply chain dynamics [4][5]. - Emerging technologies and innovations are expected to play a crucial role in enhancing operational efficiencies and driving competitive advantages [4][6]. Financial Performance - The financial metrics indicate a strong balance sheet, with a projected increase in net income by 36% year-over-year, reflecting effective cost management and revenue growth strategies [4][6]. - Key financial ratios, such as return on equity (ROE) and profit margins, are expected to improve, suggesting a healthy financial outlook for the company [4][6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining liquidity to navigate potential market fluctuations and capitalize on investment opportunities [4][6]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on expanding its product offerings and entering new markets to diversify revenue streams and mitigate risks [2][4]. - Strategic partnerships and collaborations are being pursued to enhance market reach and leverage complementary strengths [4][6]. - The report outlines plans for increased investment in research and development to foster innovation and maintain a competitive edge [4][6].

2025 年 05 月 18 日 证券研究报告 | 策略周报 关税超预期调降，资金为何转向防御？ 策略周报 分析师：刘芳 分析师登记编码：S0890524100002 电话：021-20321091 邮箱：liufang@cnhbstock.com 相关研究报告 1、《关税窗口期应如何博弈？—策略周 报》2025-05-11 2、《政治局会议临近，应如何布局？— 策略周报》2025-04-20 3、《关税对 A 股哪些行业影响较大？— 策略周报》2025-04-13 4、《关税迷雾叠加美股震荡，资产应如 何配置？—策略周报》2025-03-30 5、《科技主线重燃，二次上行可期 —策 略周报》2025-03-09 投资要点 分析师：郝一凡 【债市方面】短期长端债券面临波动。中美经贸高层会谈达成重要共识，并取 得实质性进展，在一定程度上提振了市场情绪。出口预期修复和风险偏好提振 下，债市长端或面临波动调整压力。不过长期来看，4 月制造业 PMI 回落至荣 枯线下方，出口增速下滑压力尚未完全显现，但关税调整对基本面的影响或逐 步释放，支撑债市避险需求。 销售服务电话： 【股市方面】短期维持震荡，行业轮动加剧。当前 ...

Core Viewpoint - The copper market experienced fluctuations in prices and inventory levels during the week of May 16, with average prices ranging from 78,155 to 78,905 CNY per ton, and macroeconomic factors influencing market sentiment [1] Price and Inventory Summary - SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price fluctuated between 78,155 CNY/ton and 78,905 CNY/ton during the week, with a mid-week peak followed by a decline [1] - LME inventory decreased by 12,400 tons to 179,400 tons, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory increased by 27,400 tons to 108,100 tons [1] - Domestic social inventory rose by 8,900 tons to 132,000 tons, and bonded zone inventory decreased by 8,000 tons to 68,800 tons [1] Macroeconomic Factors - A temporary joint statement was issued by China and the U.S., with the U.S. imposing a 30% tariff on China and China maintaining a 10% tariff on the U.S. [1] - The U.S. is negotiating trade agreements with Japan and the Eurozone, leading to increased market risk sentiment, with U.S. stocks and the dollar rebounding [1] - Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating on Friday [1] - In April, China's social financing increased by 1.16 trillion CNY, with new RMB loans of 280 billion CNY, and M2-M1 spread widening [1] Mining and Trade Activity - Copper concentrate transaction activity increased, with frequent bidding activities from traders and smelters [1] - The Bisha project bidding results were released, with processing fees stabilizing around -40 USD, and this week's TC price reported at -43.05 USD/ton, slightly down from last week [1] - April copper concentrate imports reached a historical high, but future spot transactions are expected to be sluggish, with TC prices remaining low [1] Smelting and Import Dynamics - Imported copper arrivals slightly increased, while domestic copper arrivals were lower [1] - As copper prices rise, the willingness to sell scrap copper increases, leading to a widening gap between refined and scrap copper prices [1] Consumption Trends - Due to May delivery, monthly differences, and high copper prices, downstream purchasing has been cautious, with demand not being stimulated and only essential purchases being made, resulting in a slight increase in domestic inventory [1] Strategy Outlook - The copper market is viewed as neutral, with prices expected to fluctuate within a range of approximately 75,000 CNY/ton to 79,500 CNY/ton in the coming week [1] - Arbitrage activities are on hold, with options positioned as short put at 74,000 CNY/ton [1]

（央视财经《经济信息联播》）随着中美互降关税，广东佛山的不少外贸企业也迅速重启美国市场供应。这几天，他们的美国 老客户纷纷赶往中国，到企业实地考察工厂，并开展新一轮合作洽谈，美国贸易商迈克就是其中一位。 美国客商迈克是广东佛山一家汽车配件制造企业的"老朋友"，得知中美关税调整的消息后，他第一时间乘飞机来到中国，一落 地就马不停蹄直奔佛山工厂，争分夺秒只为加快推进此前洽谈好的合作，一边"催"工厂出货，一边向企业下单更多新品。 美国客商 迈克：我之前来过这里，他们现在做了很多改进，他们有很好的制造系统，全流程跟踪做得很好。 转载请注明央视财经 编辑：潘煦 在这家汽车配件生产车间，迈克向负责人详细咨询了企业最新开发的防眩目车灯，虽然这款新品还未量产，但可以自动识别行 人，智能调节亮度的新功能，已经引起迈克的浓厚兴趣。 美国客商 迈克：我想要一个样品，然后我就拿去看看能不能找到想要这款产品的客户。 迈克大约十多年前开始在中国采购各类汽车配件出口至美国，当中就包括佛山这家企业。每年，他都会向这家企业采购超千万 元的产品，供给美国各大汽车品牌制造商。这段延续了十多年的密切合作关系，在今年一度遭受严峻的考验，但随着中美互降 ...

中美贸易正在重新"活跃"起来。 5月15日晚，经济观察报记者从一场外贸行业线上交流会上获悉，随着中国出口美国货物恢复发 运，业内预计海运价格的上涨潮已拉开序幕。 "中国始发货量或将出现短线激增，并在6月底迎来 高峰。" 5月15日下午，有国际货运界人士告诉经济观察报记者。 "一部分客户立刻恢复了生产、出货，一部分还在观望，需要谈新的价格。"5月14日上午，鸿利达 控股有限公司（下称"鸿利达"）首席商务官蔡铭峰对经济观察报记者如是说。 同日，广东微电新能源有限公司（下称"微电新能源"）董事长陈志勇亦向经济观察报记者表示，自 今年4月以来美国大幅对华加征关税，公司暂停了出口美国的合作订单。"现在可以重启了。"他 说，当下第一步是清理库存。 5月12日，商务部新闻发言人就《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》（下称《联合声明》）发表谈话 时表示，本次中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展，大幅降低双边关税水平，美方取消了共计91%的 加征关税，中方相应取消了91%的反制关税；美方暂停实施24%的"对等关税"（暂停90天），中方 也相应暂停实施24%的反制关税（暂停90天）。这一举措符合两国生产者和消费者的期待，也符合 两国利益和世 ...