Report Date - The report is dated November 17, 2025 [1][5][9] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - The report provides daily views and strategies for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., analyzing the current trends and potential risks of each commodity [2][4] Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Interest rate cut expectations are rising, with a trend strength of 1 [2][5][7] - **Silver**: Reached a new high, with a trend strength of 1 [2][5][7] Base Metals - **Copper**: LME inventory reduction supports prices, with a trend strength of 0. The US included copper in the new critical minerals list, and Peru's copper production increased year - on - year [2][9][11] - **Zinc**: Rangeside trading, with a trend strength of 0. US economic data release schedule and Fed's stance on interest rate cuts are key factors [2][12][14] - **Lead**: Domestic inventory increase pressures prices, with a trend strength of 0 [2][15][16] - **Tin**: Pulled back from high levels, with a trend strength of 1 [2][18][23] - **Aluminum**: Short - term pressure, with a trend strength of 0. Alumina still faces fundamental pressure, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [2][24][27] - **Nickel**: Nickel prices broke through support and are under pressure, with a trend strength of 0. Stainless steel is suppressed by weak reality, with a trend strength of 0. Indonesia's mining policies and China's subsidy suspension impact the market [2][28][33] Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: High - level oscillation, pay attention to the risk of weakening demand month - on - month, with a trend strength of 0 [2][34][36] - **Industrial Silicon**: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, and there is still support at the bottom, with a trend strength of 1. Polysilicon: Pay attention to the meeting situation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][37][40] - **Iron Ore**: Oscillating repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][42][44] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The decline in apparent demand data has narrowed, and they are in wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][46][49] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silico - Manganese**: Cost provides bottom support, and they are in wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][50][54] - **Coke**: Followed the correction, with a trend strength of 0. Coking Coal: Supply expectations are fluctuating, and valuation has declined, with a trend strength of 0 [2][55][57] - **Log**: Oscillating repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][58][61] Others - **LPG**: Downstream buying interest is strong, and it is relatively resistant to decline in the short term [4] - **Propylene**: Demand expectations have improved, and it is in a short - term strong - side oscillation [4] - **PVC**: Still under pressure in the trend [4] - **Fuel Oil**: Weak oscillation, and it is still weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term. Low - sulfur fuel oil: Slight rebound [4] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The 02 contract will fill the discount in the short term and be in an oscillating market in the medium term [4] - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: Upstream fluctuations have increased, and they are in a short - term strong - side oscillation [4] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillating at a low level [4] - **Pure Benzene**: Overseas gasoline blending has started, and it is mainly in a short - term oscillation [4] - **Palm Oil**: Short - term negatives have been fully priced in, pay attention to the inventory reduction process in the producing areas [4] - **Soybean Oil**: Lack of drivers from the US soybean side, oscillating [4] - **Soybean Meal**: The US agricultural report has no excessive positive factors, and it may follow the decline of US soybeans [4] - **Soybean No.1**: May adjust following the soybean market [4] - **Corn**: Oscillating [4] - **Sugar**: Range consolidation [4] - **Cotton**: The pressure of new cotton listing still suppresses futures prices [4] - **Egg**: Near - term contracts are weak, and far - term contracts are strong [4] - **Live Pig**: The price difference between fat and standard pigs has weakened, and the expectation of price increase due to cooling has failed [4] - **Peanut**: Pay attention to the spot market [4]

Group 1 - China's trade balance for September will be released on October 13, which is a key indicator for the country's economic health [1] - Domestic refined oil prices will enter a new round of adjustment window, impacting the energy sector [1] - The "Swap Connect" daily net limit will be increased to 45 billion yuan, enhancing cross-border trading capabilities [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange will launch stock options for Pop Mart, indicating a growing interest in the collectibles market [1] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) will release its monthly oil market report on October 14, providing insights into global oil supply and demand [2] - The 138th Canton Fair will open on October 14, serving as a significant platform for international trade [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - A-share strategy suggests short-term oscillation and long-term buying on dips [13] - Treasury bond futures recommend a curve steepening strategy for a stable approach and short-term buying on dips for an aggressive one [14] - Black commodities are expected to have limited short-term adjustment space and maintain a mid-term oscillating market [16][17] - For non-ferrous metals and new materials, different metals have different outlooks, such as short-term high-level oscillation for Shanghai Aluminum and mid-term shorting on rallies for Alumina [22] - In the agricultural product sector, different products like cotton, sugar, and eggs have their own trading suggestions based on supply and demand [28][31][34] - Energy and chemical products also vary, with crude oil likely to turn into a supply - exceeding - demand situation and suggesting shorting on rallies [41][42] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro News - China and Russia strengthen cooperation, with China implementing a visa - free policy for Russia from September 15, 2025, to September 14, 2026 [9] - The central bank's MLF had a net injection of 300 billion yuan in August, while PSL had a net withdrawal of 160.8 billion yuan [9] - A - share margin trading balance reached 2.296991 trillion yuan as of September 1, breaking the historical peak, with a cumulative increase of over 26% since June 23 [10] - The US ISM manufacturing index in August was 48.7, lower than the expected 49, and the output index fell into the contraction range [10] - The Eurozone's CPI in August increased by 2.1% year - on - year, and the core CPI slightly declined to 2.3% [11] Macro Finance Strategy - Short - term A - shares may oscillate, and long - term investors can consider buying on dips. On September 2, A - shares adjusted, with over 4000 stocks falling, and the Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.45% [13] Treasury Bond Futures - A stable strategy is to continue with the curve steepening strategy, and an aggressive one is to consider short - term buying on dips. The bond market reacted calmly to the slightly improved PMI data in August [14] Black Commodities Spiral Steel and Iron Ore - Supply policies have limited impact on steel supply and market conditions. The market may experience a "peak season without a boom" due to limited downstream demand [15][16] Coking Coal and Coke - Prices may continue to oscillate at high levels in the short term. Supply is expected to be tight in the short term, but there are also factors pressuring prices [18] Ferroalloys - Silicon iron 10 contract has the possibility of premium repair, while manganese silicon is mainly shorted on rallies in the medium - long term [19] Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash can be shorted on rallies, and glass is currently under observation [20] Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - Shanghai Aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, and Alumina is recommended to be shorted on rallies in the medium term [22] Shanghai Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate downward due to increasing supply and weak demand [23] Lithium Carbonate - It is expected to operate weakly and oscillate in the short term [24] Industrial Silicon - It will continue to oscillate with limited downward adjustment space, and the复产 progress of Xinjiang's leading manufacturers is the core contradiction [24][25] Polysilicon - Policy expectations will continue to affect the market, and there is a contradiction between policy expectations and fundamental over - supply [26] Agricultural Products Cotton - Short - term observation is advisable, and it is recommended to be short on rallies in the long term [28] Sugar - It is recommended to take a short - biased approach due to expected supply increases [31] Eggs - Consider short - term long positions on the 12 - 01 contract and maintain a reverse arbitrage logic [34] Apples - Buy on dips or use a long 10 short 01 positive arbitrage combination [35] Corn - Short the 01 contract on rallies [37] Red Dates - Observe the market [38] Pigs - Short near - month contracts on rallies and consider long positions on the 01 contract at low levels [38] Energy and Chemical Products Crude Oil - It may turn into a supply - exceeding - demand situation, and shorting on rallies can be considered [41][42] Fuel Oil - Its price will follow crude oil, and the short - term operating range of crude oil is estimated to be between $65 and $70 [42] Plastics - Polyolefins are expected to oscillate weakly due to supply pressure [43] Rubber - Consider buying on dips and be cautious when chasing high prices [44] Methanol - It may continue to oscillate weakly, but rumors of gas restrictions in Iran may cause disturbances. Short positions can be reduced [45] Caustic Soda - Maintain a long - term long position after the short - term trading rhythm [46] Asphalt - It follows crude oil and is stronger than crude oil. The short - term operating range of crude oil is estimated to be between $65 and $70 [48] Polyester Industry Chain - Temporarily observe the market for unilateral operations and consider PX positive arbitrage opportunities [49] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - It is recommended to maintain a long - term short - biased view [49] Pulp - Observe whether port de - stocking continues and the spot transaction and demand after Chenming's resumption of production [50] Logs - Observe the market in the short term [50] Urea - Observe the market and consider shorting when the futures price approaches the policy - limited price [51] Synthetic Rubber - Look for low - buying opportunities and be cautious when chasing high prices [52]

Group 1 - The US and EU have reached a new trade agreement, with the US imposing a 15% tariff on EU products and the EU committing to invest $600 billion and purchase $750 billion worth of US energy [2][4] - The agreement is seen as a compromise, avoiding a potential trade war that could have resulted from a proposed 30% tariff by the US [3][4] - The new tariff rate is significantly higher than the previous average of around 2%, which poses challenges for EU product competitiveness [5][7] Group 2 - Germany, as the largest EU economy, benefits from the agreement as it reduces the average tariff on automotive exports from 27.5% to 15%, thus protecting its key industries [4][6] - The agreement has sparked criticism within the EU, with some leaders arguing it represents a loss for European industries and could threaten jobs [7][8] - The potential for increased US procurement and investment from the EU raises questions about the actual implementation and market willingness to follow through [8]

就在美国准备对包括印度在内的12个国家下最后通牒时，印度突然宣布，将对美国部分商品加征高达7.25亿美元的报复性关税。 这一举动不仅打乱了特朗普精心布置的谈判节奏，更向全球释放了一个信号，印度不接受最后通牒，更不会任人摆布。 这场突如其来的反击，发生在美国对等关税90天缓冲期即将结束之前，7月9日，也就是两天之后，美国将正式对未签署贸易协议的国家，启动新一轮关税制 裁。 而就在这关键节点，印度以迅雷不及掩耳之势出手，在WTO框架内递交了正式文件，准备迎战美国的极限施压。 当特朗普忙着在社交平台炫耀"90天搞定90国"的关税战绩时，新德里的决策者们正翻着美国非政府组织十年来的资金流水。 今年3月，印度警方突袭8家美索罗斯系机构，意外发现一笔2100万美元的"民主援助"资金神秘蒸发。调查显示，其中1340万美元被用于培训邻国孟加拉国的 政治活动人士，直接导致该国总理在示威浪潮中下台。 这笔账让印度猛然警觉——那些年街头的反政府标语，背后是否也飘着美元油墨味？ 特朗普政府惯常的策略是设定一个明确的"最后期限"，以此施加极限压力。在与印度的贸易谈判中，7月9日就被白宫赋予了这样一层含义。 印度的"反击"战略，已经进入 ...

Core Insights - The China Commodity Price Index (CBPI) for June 2025 is reported at 110.8 points, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.5% but a year-on-year decrease of 5.2% [1][3] - The index has shown a moderate recovery over the past two months, indicating a stable overall operation in the commodity market, supported by positive signals from US-China trade talks and enhanced domestic counter-cyclical policies [1][3] Commodity Price Index Summary - **Overall Index**: CBPI at 110.8 points, up 0.5% month-on-month, down 5.2% year-on-year [1][3] - **Energy Price Index**: 97.3 points, up 1.0% month-on-month, down 12.9% year-on-year [3][7] - **Chemical Price Index**: 104.3 points, up 1.4% month-on-month, down 12.6% year-on-year [3][6] - **Black Metal Price Index**: 76.6 points, down 2.6% month-on-month, down 11.8% year-on-year [3][8] - **Non-Ferrous Metal Price Index**: 128.8 points, up 0.8% month-on-month, down 2.0% year-on-year [3][6] - **Mineral Price Index**: 73.6 points, down 2.6% month-on-month, down 11.9% year-on-year [3][8] - **Agricultural Product Price Index**: 98.1 points, down 0.2% month-on-month, up 2.2% year-on-year [3][7] Price Changes of Key Commodities - **Methanol**: Price increased by 7.8% month-on-month [4][6] - **Diesel**: Price increased by 5.4% month-on-month [4][7] - **Xylene**: Price increased by 5.0% month-on-month [4][6] - **Natural Rubber**: Price decreased by 6.9% month-on-month [6][7] - **Coke**: Price decreased by 10.5% month-on-month [5][7] Market Analysis - The chemical price index's rise is attributed to increasing international oil prices, which have pushed up the prices of chemical fibers and basic chemicals [6] - The non-ferrous metal price index's increase is linked to a weaker US dollar, which has positively impacted the prices of metals priced in dollars [6] - The energy price index's rebound is primarily due to rising international crude oil prices, which have strengthened the cost support for products like gasoline and diesel [7] - The black metal price index's decline is driven by falling costs of raw materials like coke and iron ore, coupled with insufficient downstream demand [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides daily views and strategies for various futures commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., with specific trends and suggestions for each commodity [2][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: The Federal Reserve continues to hold rates steady, with a trend strength of 0 [6][7][11]. - **Silver**: Expected to continue rising, with a trend strength of 0 [7][11]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Falling inventories support prices, with a trend strength of 0 [13][15]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to oscillate strongly, with a trend strength of 1; Alumina: Monitor production cuts and maintenance, with a trend strength of 0 [16][18]. - **Zinc**: Under medium - term pressure, monitor social inventory changes, with a trend strength of -1 [19][20]. - **Lead**: Expected to trade within a range, with a trend strength of 0 [22][23]. - **Tin**: Tight present but weak future expectations, with a trend strength of 0 [25][29]. - **Nickel**: Concerns at the mine end have cooled, and smelting supply is elastic, with a trend strength of 0; Stainless steel: Negative feedback leads to increased production cuts, with supply and demand both weak and prices oscillating at a low level, with a trend strength of 0 [30][33]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Warehouse receipt de - stocking is accelerating, monitor potential purchases, with a trend strength of 0 [34][36]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Warehouse receipts are continuously de - stocking, monitor upside potential, with a trend strength of -1; Polysilicon: Upstream restarts production, and the futures price is falling, with a trend strength of -1 [38][40]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations are fluctuating, and prices will oscillate within a range, with a trend strength of 0 [41]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Affected by macro - sentiment, prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 for both [45][46][48]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Affected by sector sentiment, prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 for both [50][53]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 for both [54][56]. - **Steam Coal**: Demand needs to be released, and prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 [58][61]. - **PVC**: Expected to oscillate in the short term, with downward pressure in the long run [54]. - **Fuel Oil**: Night trading oscillated weakly, and short - term strength is expected to pause; Low - sulfur fuel oil: The adjustment trend continues, and the spot high - low sulfur spread in the overseas market rebounded slightly [56]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: U.S. biofuel policy and Middle - East geopolitics are both favorable [63]. - **Soybean Oil**: Expected to rise oscillatingly [63]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No. 1**: Oscillating and adjusting [66]. - **Corn**: Expected to trade within a range [68]. - **Sugar**: Consolidating at a low level [69]. - **Cotton**: Monitor the impact of external markets [70]. - **Eggs**: The culling of laying hens is accelerating, waiting for the peak - season bullish factors to materialize [72]. - **Hogs**: Waiting for spot price confirmation, and the cost center for the far - end contracts is moving down [73]. - **Peanuts**: There is support at the bottom [74]. Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Currently in a sideways market, consider holding long positions in the August contract and short positions in the October contract [57]. - **Short - fiber and Bottle - grade Chip**: Monitor the increasing cost volatility, and prices will oscillate at a high level [61]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Expected to trade within a range [62]. - **Log**: The basis is being repaired, and prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 1 [62][64].

Group 1 - The trade war is impacting the U.S. consumer market as new tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of goods will increase retail prices [1] - The resumption of federal student loan repayments will affect 5 million borrowers, leading to immediate wage garnishments and tax refund intercepts [1] - A wave of layoffs is anticipated in the U.S. port and freight industries due to reduced orders from importers seeking to avoid tariffs, resulting in a significant drop in container throughput [1] Group 2 - The federal government is experiencing a growing wave of layoffs, with thousands of positions already cut across various agencies, including postal and agricultural departments [1] - The underground labor market is expanding as the Department of Homeland Security and ICE are enforcing stricter immigration policies, impacting industries reliant on low-wage workers [1] - Inflation and rising unemployment are creating a stagflation scenario in the U.S., complicating monetary policy for the Federal Reserve [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the agricultural sector [2]. Core Insights - The report discusses the impact of the recent U.S. tariffs on Chinese agricultural imports, particularly focusing on grains, meat, and other agricultural products [2]. - It highlights that China's reliance on U.S. imports for certain agricultural products has decreased since the 2018 trade war, with significant shifts in import sources [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of food security in China's trade policies and suggests that short-term supply constraints may support prices for corn and soybean meal, affecting livestock profitability [2]. Summary by Sections Grains - Tariffs of 15% on wheat and corn, and 10% on sorghum and soybeans will impact supply, but China's self-sufficiency in rice is strong [2]. - China's soybean imports have stabilized between 90 million to 100 million tons, with a significant portion sourced from Brazil [2][3]. - The report notes that the U.S. share of soybean imports has decreased from 34% in 2017 to 21% in 2024 [2]. Meat - The report states that U.S. imports of meat products are minimal, with chicken imports making up about 6.6% of total consumption, and only 0.7% from the U.S. [2]. - For pork, the import share is around 2%, with U.S. imports constituting 0.1% of total consumption [2]. - Beef imports are more significant, with 27% of consumption coming from imports, and 5% from the U.S. [2]. Other Products - Cotton imports are noted to be 33.2% of total consumption, with about one-third sourced from the U.S. [2]. - The report indicates that vegetable and fruit imports are relatively low, with less than 3% of total consumption coming from imports [2]. - Dairy products have an import share of about 5%, with U.S. imports being a minor fraction [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in seed and planting, such as Longping High-Tech and Dena Seed, as well as livestock companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [2]. - It highlights that soybeans, sorghum, and cotton have relatively high import shares from the U.S., indicating potential investment opportunities [2].