Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ production increases strengthen the expectation of a rise in global crude oil supply. If OPEC+ continues to increase production, the global crude oil market may be in a long - term supply surplus, intensifying the current imbalance between supply and demand and putting long - term downward pressure on oil prices. Long - term attention should be paid to the implementation of OPEC+ production increases. Short - term factors such as Ukraine's attacks on Russian air bases, Canadian wildfires, and low inventory levels support oil prices. Short - term trading is recommended [2][6][33] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review - Crude oil oscillated. SC2507 opened at 451 for the week, reached a high of 468, a low of 461, and closed at 447, down 4.9 or 1.08% for the week. The 07 contract also oscillated [3] Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 2.1 OPEC - In April, OPEC's total crude oil production decreased by 62,000 barrels per day to 26.71 million barrels per day, and the total production of "OPEC+" countries decreased by 106,000 barrels per day to 40.92 million barrels per day. Kazakhstan's oil production in April decreased by 41,000 barrels per day to 1.82 million barrels per day. The IEA raised its 2025 total oil supply forecast from 104.2 million barrels per day to 104.6 million barrels per day, and adjusted the 2026 global oil supply growth forecast from 960,000 barrels per day to 970,000 barrels per day, and the 2026 total oil supply forecast from 105.2 million barrels per day to 105.6 million barrels per day. On May 31, 2025, eight OPEC+ member countries decided to increase daily oil production by 411,000 barrels starting from July, which is the third consecutive month of supply expansion of the same scale since May. The alliance said the increase is based on a stable global economy and a healthy market, and it will adjust the supply rhythm dynamically according to the seasonal peak demand in the third quarter and reserve the right to "suspend or reverse the production increase" [5] 2.2 Russia - Russia, the second - largest oil producer in OPEC+, relies on a wartime economy for economic growth. President Putin estimated that Russia's GDP grew by 3.9% in 2024. Russia's crude oil production in 2024 was 516 million tons (about 9.9 million barrels per day). In March 2025, its crude oil production dropped from 9.08 million barrels per day in February to 9.07 million barrels per day, still higher than the OPEC+ quota of 8.98 million barrels per day. However, OPEC data showed that in March, Russia's crude oil production further decreased to 8.963 million barrels per day. According to Russia's new energy strategy, its crude oil production is expected to stabilize at 540 million metric tons per year (10.8 million barrels per day) by 2050. The second - round Russia - Ukraine negotiation was held in Istanbul, Turkey on June 2, 2025. Ukraine claimed to have caused $7 billion in losses to Russia through the "Spider Web" operation. The Russian delegation brought a memorandum draft and other cease - fire proposals to the negotiation. Ukraine stated it would not compromise on territorial issues [7][8] 2.3 United States - As of the week ending May 23, 2025, US crude oil production was 13.401 million barrels per day, an increase of 9,000 barrels per day from the previous week. The number of US oil drilling rigs decreased by 4 to 461, the fifth consecutive weekly decline and the lowest level in three and a half years. The EIA predicted that US crude oil production in 2025 would be 13.51 million barrels per day, lower than the previous forecast of 13.61 million barrels per day, and the 2026 production would be 13.56 million barrels per day, previously estimated at 13.76 million barrels per day [9] 2.4 Americas' Production Increase - OPEC said that in 2025, the supply from non - OPEC+ countries would increase by about 800,000 barrels per day, lower than last month's forecast of 900,000 barrels per day. The IEA maintained its 2025 non - OPEC+ supply growth forecast at 1.3 million barrels per day and lowered the 2026 non - OPEC+ supply growth forecast from 920,000 barrels per day to 820,000 barrels per day [16] 2.5 Inventory - OPEC reported that in March 2025, the total OECD oil and crude oil product inventory was 3.996 billion barrels, a decrease of 13.41 million barrels from the previous quarter and an increase of 130,000 barrels from the same period last year. As of the week ending May 23, 2025, US total crude oil inventory was 842 million barrels, a decrease of 1.975 million barrels (- 0.23%) from the previous week; strategic crude oil inventory was 401 million barrels, an increase of 820,000 barrels (+ 0.20%); commercial crude oil inventory was 440 million barrels, a decrease of 2.795 million barrels (- 0.63%); and Cushing crude oil inventory was 23.51 million barrels, an increase of 75,000 barrels (+ 0.32%) [17] 2.6 Consumption - OPEC predicted that global oil demand would increase by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.28 million barrels per day in 2026, higher than the IEA's estimate of 741,000 barrels per day. The IEA raised its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast from 726,000 barrels per day to 741,000 barrels per day and the 2026 forecast from 692,000 barrels per day to 760,000 barrels per day, and predicted that the average global oil demand in 2026 would reach 104.7 million barrels per day. As of the week ending May 23, 2025, US refinery crude oil processing volume was 16.328 million barrels per day, a decrease of 162,000 barrels per day from the previous week, and the refinery utilization rate was 90.20%, a decrease of 0.5% from the previous week. On May 16, US refined oil processing fees were $174 per ton, and Asian refinery processing fees were low at $187 per ton. In the week of May 16, the profit of Shandong independent refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation was 335 yuan per ton, a decrease of 125 yuan per ton from the previous week and 30 yuan per ton from the same period last year. On May 16, the profit of major refineries was 751 yuan per ton, an increase of 310 yuan per ton from the previous week. In April, the US refinery utilization rate was 88.00%, a month - on - month increase of 0.94%; the European utilization rate was 81.90%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.10% [20][24][25] 2.6 Geopolitics - On May 23, Iran and the US started the fifth - round indirect nuclear negotiation in Rome, Italy, mediated by Oman. US President Trump said there was a "very good dialogue" with Iran, but the Iranian Foreign Minister downplayed the progress. Oman's Foreign Minister said the negotiation "made some but not decisive progress." On May 31, Oman's Foreign Minister visited Iran to introduce the US negotiation proposal. The US insists that Iran should completely stop all levels of uranium enrichment activities, while Iran emphasizes that moderate uranium enrichment is part of its right to peaceful use of nuclear energy and is willing to sign a nuclear agreement if the US lifts sanctions. Hamas in Palestine announced its willingness to start a new round of cease - fire negotiations in the Gaza Strip, and Qatar and Egypt will continue to work for a cease - fire agreement [30][32] Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Long - term attention should be paid to OPEC+ production increase implementation. Short - term trading is recommended due to short - term supporting factors [33]

021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 29 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员 ...

自今年1月中旬以来，国际油价累计跌幅已超10%，核心压力源自两大因素：一是特朗普政府对多国加 征关税引发的全球贸易紧张局势，中国等经济体采取的反制措施进一步加剧市场对能源需求前景的担 忧;二是OPEC+产油国联盟逐步退出自愿减产协议，其持续增产行为与需求疲软预期形成共振。 据知情人士透露，该组织已决定将原定于6月1日召开的联合部长级监督委员会(JMMC)会议提前至5月31 日举行，会议将重点讨论沙特、俄罗斯等8个核心成员国7月的具体产量配额。上周，OPEC+技术委员 会已就"连续第三个月增产"展开初步磋商，但具体增幅仍存分歧。 当前市场处于多空因素交织的敏感期：一方面，贸易摩擦升级可能抑制全球经济增长及原油消费;另一 方面，OPEC+若能在会议上释放谨慎增产信号，或为油价提供阶段性底部支撑。交易员正等待更多政 策端线索，以判断下半年供需平衡表的演变方向。 智通财经APP获悉，在石油输出国组织(OPEC+)即将召开关键产量政策会议之际，国际油价维持窄幅波 动。市场参与者正密切关注欧美贸易关系缓和的可能性，同时消化主要经济体地缘政策变动带来的连锁 反应。 受伦敦证券交易所和纽约市场因假日休市影响，5月27日(周一 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 展望 原油周报 (5.12-5.16) 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 回顾 2 相关资讯 3 展望 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 回顾与要闻 上周，原油反复震荡，纽约商品交易所主力轻质原油期货价格收于每桶61.93美元，周涨2.23%；伦敦布伦特原油主力期货价格收于每桶65.33美 元，周涨2.27%；中国上海原油期货收于每桶462.5元，周跌2.10%。周初，随着中美关税战缓和，投资者对贸易前景的担忧缓和提振油价上涨。 中美两国发布联合申明称，中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展，大幅降低双边关税水平。美国财政部长贝森特表示，这项降税措施将持续90天， 期间全球两大经济体将继续展开谈判。此外，美国总统特朗普在白宫宣布，美国与英国达成一项新的贸易协议， ...

从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 1.数据变化分析 EIA原油超预期累库，油价再度转弱 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 | | 数据指标 | 2025-05-14 | 2025-05-13 | 变化 | 涨跌幅 | 黃勢 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格 | SC | 486. 60 | 479. 50 | 7. 10 | 1. 48% | | 元/辆 | | | WII | 62. 43 | 63. 63 | -1. 20 | -1.89% | | 美元/簡 | | | Brent | 65. 85 | 66. 60 | -0. 75 | -1. 13% | | 美元/簡 | | 现货价格 | OPEC 一览子 | 65. 38 | 65. 38 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 美元/簡 | | | Brent | 66. 06 | 66. 19 | -0. 13 | - ...

主要能源机构5月平衡表 姓名：肖彧 投资咨询证号：Z0016296 2025年5月15日 期货投资咨询业务批准文号：证监许可[2011]1446号 目录 CONTENTS 01 EIA 02 OPEC 注：括号内数字为上月月报数据，供参考对比 EIA现在预计2025年布伦特原油价格平均66美元/桶（68），2026年进一步跌至59美元/桶（61） 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 21-1 21-7 22-1 22-7 23-1 23-7 24-1 24-7 25-1 25-7 26-1 26-7 四年区间 WTI现货价 预估值 Brent价格预估变化 WTI现货价预测 资料来源：EIA 01 EIA 1.1 EIA平衡表 供应 消费 平衡 平衡变化 2025Q1 103.19 103.22 -0.03 +0.17 2025Q2 103.81 103.33 +0.48 -0.07 2025Q3 104.42 104.01 +0.41 -0.26 2025Q4 105.07 104.32 +0.75 -0.02 2025 104.12 103.72 +0.41 -0.05 2026 105.4 ...

金十数据5月15日讯，油价周四下跌约2美元，因市场预期美伊可能达成核协议，或导致制裁放松，而美 国原油上周库存意外增加，加剧了投资者对供应过剩的担忧。一名伊朗官员在周三发布的NBC新闻采 访中表示，伊朗愿意同意与美国达成协议，以换取解除经济制裁。野村证券经济学家Yuki Takashima表 示："新的抛售是由于预期美伊核协议将缓解美国最近收紧的对伊制裁，可能会放松全球原油供需平 衡。"沙特外交部大臣周三表示，沙特完全支持美伊核谈判，并希望取得积极成果。IG分析师Tony Sycamore表示，"我的预测是，我们将在未来一个月左右继续看到油价在区间波动，然而，除非出现意 想不到的地缘政治冲击，否则当区间波动消失时，油价将会下行，向50美元靠拢。" 美伊核协议在望 油价日内跌幅扩大 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The crude oil futures 2507 contract is expected to run strongly. It shows a volatile trend in the short - term, a volatile and slightly weak trend in the medium - term, and a volatile and slightly strong trend intraday [1][5] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Market Performance - Last Friday night, the price of domestic crude oil futures rose slightly by 1.31% to 464.6 yuan per barrel [5] 3.2 Core Logic - OPEC+ oil - producing countries will further accelerate the pace of production increase in June, and US shale oil production is also growing steadily, which increases the expectation of oversupply in the oil market. After the digestion of negative sentiment, as the crude oil consumption peak season approaches in mid - May, the demand factor may gradually strengthen, supporting the crude oil futures price. The progress in China - US economic and trade negotiations boosts market risk appetite [5]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-05-12原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2506： 1.基本面：美国财政部长贝森特和贸易代表格里尔描述会谈取得"实质性进展"，并表示将于周一公布 细节；伊美谈判代表为解决伊朗核问题而举行的新一轮会谈于周日在阿曼结束，官员们表示，双方计 划举行进一步谈判；乌克兰总统泽连斯基周日呼吁俄罗斯确认从5月12日开始无条件停火，然后乌克 兰将准备好与俄罗斯举行直接会谈；中性 2.基差：5月9日，阿曼原油现货价为64.12美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为63.38美元/桶，基差 13.26元/桶，现货升水期货；偏多 3.库存：美国截至5月2日当周API原油库存减少449 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report Supply-side OPEC+ maintains production limits, but the widening discount of Iraqi heavy oil and the contraction of US shale oil capital expenditure limit overall supply growth; on the demand side, apparent demand is under pressure due to factors such as narrowing refinery profits, weak refined oil consumption, and macro sentiment. The widening discount of SC indicates weaker domestic demand compared to the international market, while the strengthening of the spread of nearby contracts may suggest short-term relief of delivery pressure. In the short term, oil prices may remain in a low-range oscillation, with WTI and Brent fluctuating in the range of $58 - 61, and SC being weaker due to the RMB exchange rate and domestic demand. If the destocking during the US summer driving season falls short of expectations or there are no breakthroughs in geopolitical conflicts, it will be difficult for oil prices to find sustained upward momentum. In the medium to long term, attention should be paid to whether OPEC+ adjusts its production policy at the June meeting and the progress of China-US trade negotiations [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Futures Price**: On May 8, 2025, the SC crude oil price dropped slightly to 461.0 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 7.2 yuan (-1.54%) from the previous day, with an intraday fluctuation range of [458.9, 483.6], indicating weak market sentiment; the WTI and Brent prices remained stable at $57.95/barrel and $60.95/barrel respectively, lacking a clear short-term direction [1]. - **Spread Change**: The SC-Brent and SC-WTI spreads weakened by $1.09/barrel to $2.76 and $5.76/barrel respectively, reflecting an expansion of the discount of SC relative to international oil prices; the SC continuous - continuous 3 spread strengthened by 2.1 yuan to 14.5 yuan/barrel, indicating stronger support for nearby contracts [1]. 2. Supply, Demand, and Inventory Analysis - **Supply Side**: Iraq adjusted its June Asian crude oil pricing strategy, widening the discount on heavy crude oil to $2.70/barrel, suggesting weak demand from Asian refineries for heavy crude oil; Iran reaffirmed its support for the OPEC+ production cut agreement, while ConocoPhillips cut spending due to oil prices falling below $60/barrel, implying limited growth in shale oil production. In addition, the deepening of China-Russia energy cooperation may support supply stability in the long term [2]. - **Demand Side**: The unexpected increase in US gasoline inventories and a 22.67% month-on-month decrease in Chinese refineries' orders for gasoline and diesel in April indicated a cooling of terminal consumption; the uncertainty of China-US trade negotiations further suppressed risk appetite [2]. - **Inventory Side**: The increase in US commercial crude oil inventories and the unexpected rise in gasoline inventories may intensify short-term concerns about inventory accumulation; under the continuous production cuts by OPEC+, the inventory pressure of OECD member countries may be marginally relieved [2]. 3. Industry Chain Judgment - **Supply**: OPEC+ maintains production limits, but the widening discount of Iraqi heavy oil and the contraction of US shale oil capital expenditure limit overall supply growth [3]. - **Demand**: Apparent demand is under pressure due to factors such as narrowing refinery profits, weak refined oil consumption, and macro sentiment [3]. - **Spread**: The widening discount of SC indicates weaker domestic demand compared to the international market, while the strengthening of the spread of nearby contracts may suggest short-term relief of delivery pressure [3]. - **Price Trend**: In the short term, oil prices may remain in a low-range oscillation, with WTI and Brent fluctuating in the range of $58 - 61, and SC being weaker due to the RMB exchange rate and domestic demand [3]. 4. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: The prices of various crude oil futures, spot prices, spreads, and other assets showed different degrees of change. For example, the SC crude oil futures price decreased, while the WTI and Brent prices remained stable; most spot prices decreased; some spreads changed significantly [5]. - **Fuel Oil**: The prices of fuel oil futures, spot prices, spreads, and inventories also showed different trends. For example, the FU futures price decreased slightly, while the LU futures price increased slightly; most spot prices decreased; some spreads changed [6]. 5. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Supply**: On May 8, Iraq set the price of Basra medium crude oil sold to Asia in June at a premium of 45 cents per barrel over the Oman-Dubai average price, and the price of heavy crude oil at a discount of $2.70 per barrel; Iran reaffirmed its support for OPEC+ [7][8]. - **Demand**: Emirates Airlines suspended flights to Pakistan until May 10; in April, the transaction volume in the shipping market for gasoline and diesel from Chinese refineries decreased, with new orders down 22.67% month-on-month [9]. - **Inventory**: The unexpected increase in US gasoline inventories led to a decline in international crude oil futures prices [10]. - **Market Information**: ConocoPhillips cut spending due to oil prices falling below $60/barrel; China and Russia deepened energy cooperation; overnight oil prices dropped significantly; the prices of crude oil and marine fuel raw materials were weak, and the prices of marine fuel in the East China market decreased [11].