1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The prices of various commodities in the chemical and agricultural sectors showed different trends on February 4, 2026, compared to the previous day [4]. - The macro - economic news includes rumors of VAT rate hikes in some industries, major corporate mergers and IPO plans, and policy directions in different fields [6][7]. - For different commodity futures, the market conditions are affected by supply - demand relationships, seasonal factors, and macro - economic factors, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed [11][13][15]. - In the stock market, A - shares showed a general upward trend on February 3, while欧美 stocks declined. Different sectors had different performances, and trading strategies are suggested for different investors [22][23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemical Industry - On February 4, 2026, most chemical futures showed price increases, such as natural rubber with a 0.803% increase, 20 - number rubber with a 0.955% increase, and asphalt with a 0.997% increase. Only PVC and caustic soda showed price decreases, with PVC down 0.335% and caustic soda down 0.863% [4]. 3.2 Macro - Economic News - Rumors of VAT rate hikes in the financial and Internet value - added service industries, especially in the game industry from 6% to 32%, turned out to be false [6]. - SpaceX merged with xAI, with the combined company valued at $1.25 trillion, and an expected IPO later this year [6]. - 30 provinces in China have set their GDP growth targets for 2026, with many economic powerhouses aiming for over 5% growth [6]. - Multiple commercial aerospace companies are in the process of going public, and they may list on the stock market intensively in the next one or two years [7]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasizes technological breakthroughs in future industries such as 6G, quantum technology, etc. [7]. - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced a financial technology promotion blueprint and will launch four flagship projects [7]. - There were disputes about OpenAI's attitude towards Nvidia's AI chips, but Nvidia's investment plan in OpenAI is still progressing [7]. - Different Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts. Waymo completed a new round of $16 billion in financing, with a post - investment valuation of $126 billion [8]. 3.3 Main Commodity Morning Meeting Views 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - **Sugar**: The supply - demand situation is loose both at home and abroad. The domestic sugar price is expected to remain in a weak and volatile state. It is advisable to be cautious when short - selling and focus on short - selling opportunities after a rebound [11]. - **Corn**: The market faces seasonal selling pressure before the Spring Festival and weakening demand. The price is in a high - level volatile state. It is recommended to wait and see, with the upper pressure at 2275 yuan and the lower support at 2250 yuan [11]. - **Peanut**: The price is expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term. The lower support levels are 8000 yuan and 7900 yuan, and the upper pressure is 8100 yuan [11]. - **Pig**: The supply of pigs is temporarily tightened before the Spring Festival, and the futures market is expected to remain volatile [11][13]. - **Egg**: The spot market is stable, and the futures market shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness, seeking downward support [13]. - **Jujube**: The price is expected to remain stable in the short term. The downstream demand is fragmented, and the futures market is seeking downward support [13]. - **Cotton**: The supply has a long - term bullish factor of expected yield reduction, but the high inventory suppresses the upward space. The price is expected to remain in a high - level volatile state. It is advisable to operate cautiously on the long side, with the support range at 14500 - 14600 yuan [13]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The fundamentals are in an oversupply situation, and attention should be paid to the impact of supply - side changes on prices [13]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal in the production areas have declined, and the replenishment of steel and coking enterprises is coming to an end. The prices are expected to fluctuate and run [13]. - **Log**: The price is expected to maintain a relatively strong and volatile state, but the upward space is limited. It is advisable to adopt a volatile trading strategy, with the upper pressure at 805 yuan and the lower support at 795 yuan [13][15]. - **Pulp**: The supply - demand situation is weak. The price is expected to be under pressure and run weakly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or try short - selling lightly when the price is high, with the upper pressure at 5300 yuan/ton and the lower support at 5250 yuan/ton [15]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The supply - demand relationship is in a weak balance. It is recommended to wait and see. If the price effectively breaks below 4030 yuan, the downward space may be opened [16]. 3.3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: The copper price is under pressure due to market uncertainties and the rising US dollar index. The aluminum supply is increasing, the demand is showing signs of stabilization, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down, but the structural contradiction remains. The market sentiment has stabilized, and attention should be paid to macro - risks [18]. - **Alumina**: The fundamentals are in an oversupply situation, waiting for new market drivers [20]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The demand is weakening as the holiday approaches, and the steel prices are expected to be under slight pressure and run weakly [20]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon**: The overall fundamentals are relatively healthy, but the market lacks expected drivers. The prices are expected to run weakly with a narrowing range, and the cost provides certain support. It is advisable to have a callback - and - long - biased trading idea and pay attention to the macro - atmosphere [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price rebounded strongly after a sharp decline, showing strong support below. It is expected to maintain a high - level volatile state in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see, with the upper pressure at 151880 yuan and the lower support at 137520 yuan [20][22]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - **Stock Index Options**: On February 3, A - shares showed a general upward trend, and different stock index futures and options had different performance indicators. Trend investors can focus on the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can hold short - wide - straddle positions to short - sell volatility. The stock market is likely to fluctuate in the two weeks before the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to structural opportunities [22]. - **Stock Market**: A - shares closed higher on February 3, with active performance in some concept sectors. The欧美 stock market declined, and technology stocks were under pressure. The trading strategy is to participate in the rebound lightly when the price stabilizes after a sharp decline, not to chase the rise, and to realize profits when the price rises [22][23].

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告资讯信息来源于万得资讯和金十数据，冠通研究整理编辑 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 发布日期：2026/2/4 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国内商品期市日盘多数收跌，贵金属走势分化，沪银跌 16.71%，钯涨 8.62%； 基本金属跌幅居前，沪锡跌 6.7%；能源品全部下跌，原油跌 4.93%。贵金属、基 本金属夜盘反弹，沪银涨 5.93%，沪金涨 4.2%，沪锡涨 6.64%。 2.国际贵 ...

Company and Industry Insights - Texas Instruments is reportedly in deep negotiations to acquire chip design company Synaptics for approximately $7 billion, with Synaptics' stock surging over 45% post-announcement [7] - CATL and Fulin Precision are increasing capital in their subsidiary Jiangxi Shenghua to establish a new 500,000-ton ferrous oxalate project, securing upstream raw material supply [7] - Good Products' controlling shareholder, Ningbo Hanyi, has received an execution notice due to overdue debts, potentially putting some of its shares at risk of forced execution [7] - Tianyi Research Institute has completed IPO counseling registration with the Hunan Securities Regulatory Bureau, known for launching 37 satellites into space, dubbed the "Pinduoduo" of the aerospace industry [8] - Huafa Co. plans to raise no more than 3 billion yuan through a private placement to fund nine real estate projects, supplementing project development capital [8] - Kailong High-Tech intends to acquire 70% of Jinhua Wanda through a combination of stock issuance and cash payment, with shares resuming trading on February 4 [8] - Cambrian Technology experienced a drop of over 14% during trading, closing down 9.18% at 1,128 yuan per share, nearing a 30% decline from its high in August [8] - Walmart's market capitalization has surpassed $1 trillion for the first time, with a year-to-date increase of 13%, joining the exclusive club of trillion-dollar retail companies [8] - Disney has appointed Josh D'Amaro as the new CEO, succeeding Bob Iger, with a base salary of $2.5 million and a target one-time stock award of $9.7 million [8] - HP has appointed Bruce Broussard as interim CEO, effective immediately, following the resignation of Enrique Lores [8] - Sun Kai, Vice President and Secretary of the Board at Industrial Bank, has increased his stake in the company by purchasing 40,000 shares, reflecting confidence in the company's future development [8]

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 晨会纪要 2026 年 2 月 4 日 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 | 4 / 7 / 7 / 4 | | 卒」卒4日听刊 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势空头 | 農荡偏空 | 農药 | 農荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | に | 橡胶 | 中证1000指数期货 | | | | 红枣 | 自糖 | 燃油 | | | | 铁矿石 | 多晶硅 | 三十债 | | | | 甲醇 | 棉纱 | 十债 | | | | РУС | 尿素 | 上证50股指期货 | | | | 塑料 | 棉花 | 二债 | | | | 生猪 | 胶版印刷纸 | 沪深300股指期货 | | | | 原油 | 玉米 | 五债 | | | | 液化石油气 | 乙二醇 | 沥青 | | | ...

Group 1 - The first "No. 1 Document" of the 14th Five-Year Plan emphasizes the integration of artificial intelligence with agriculture, expanding applications in drones, IoT, and robotics, while promoting rural e-commerce and enhancing infrastructure for cold storage and logistics [1] - WTI crude oil futures rose by 1.72% to $63.21 per barrel, while Brent crude increased by 1.55% to $67.33 per barrel amid geopolitical tensions involving U.S. naval forces and Iranian drones [1] - U.S. stock indices collectively declined, with the Dow down 0.34%, Nasdaq down 1.43%, and S&P 500 down 0.83%, while precious metals saw significant gains, with COMEX gold futures up 6.83% to $4970.5 per ounce [1] Group 2 - LME metal futures saw widespread gains, with LME copper rising by $586 to $13,478 per ton, driven by China's potential reserve plans for copper concentrate and a U.S. mineral reserve initiative with initial funding of $12 billion [2] - The Paris prosecutor's office has launched a search at X's office in France, part of an ongoing investigation involving Elon Musk and former CEO Linda Yaccarino, with a hearing scheduled for April 20 [2] - Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix's combined market value reached $1.14 trillion, surpassing Alibaba and Tencent's combined value of $1.07 trillion, indicating a shift in AI investment towards infrastructure [4] Group 3 - In January 2026, A-share new accounts reached 4.9158 million, a 89% month-on-month increase and a 213% year-on-year increase from January 2025 [5] - The latest data shows that the net asset value of Guotou Ruijin silver futures increased by 3.3%, with the unit net value reported at 2.3238 yuan [5] - The commercial space launch company in Hainan announced plans for nearly 30 launch missions in 2026, focusing on new model launches and operational readiness [6] Group 4 - The China Engineering Machinery Industry Association reported a 39.1% year-on-year increase in domestic sales of truck cranes in December 2025, indicating a recovery in the construction machinery sector [7] - SpaceX confirmed a merger with xAI, integrating AI, rockets, and satellite internet, with an estimated post-merger valuation of $1.25 trillion [7] - The commercial real estate REITs pilot program has seen the first eight REITs submit applications to raise a total of 31.475 billion yuan, with expected distribution rates above 4.5% [9] Group 5 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the need for strategic planning in emerging industries, including 6G, quantum technology, and hydrogen energy [10] - The sales of home appliances and digital products in January exceeded 15 million units, generating nearly 59 billion yuan in sales, driven by the old-for-new appliance replacement policy [11] - The smart retail market in China is projected to grow to approximately 64.5 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 22% [14]

Company News - Guizhou Moutai repurchased 329,800 shares in January, accounting for 0.0263% of the total share capital, with a total payment of 451 million yuan. By the end of January, the total repurchased shares reached 416,900, accounting for 0.0333% of the total share capital, with a total payment of 571 million yuan (excluding transaction fees) [3] - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. repurchased 15,990,800 A-shares by January 31, accounting for 0.3628% of the total A-shares, with a maximum transaction price of 317.63 yuan/share and a minimum of 231.50 yuan/share, totaling 4.386 billion yuan (excluding transaction fees) [3] - Zhiyang Innovation announced plans to acquire control of Lingming Photon through stock issuance, convertible bonds, and cash payments, which is expected to constitute a major asset restructuring. The stock will be suspended from trading starting February 4 for no more than five trading days [3] - Kailong High-Tech plans to acquire 70% of Shenzhen Jinwangda Electromechanical Co., Ltd. through stock issuance and cash payment, with the transaction price yet to be determined. This acquisition is expected to constitute a major asset restructuring, and the stock will resume trading on February 4 [4] - Han Jian Heshan intends to acquire 99.9978% of Liaoning Xingfu New Materials Co., Ltd. through stock issuance and cash payment, with the transaction price still to be finalized. This transaction is expected to constitute a major asset restructuring and will not result in a restructuring listing, with the stock resuming trading on February 4 [4] - ST Cube announced a stock suspension for self-examination due to abnormal price fluctuations, with the stock resuming trading on February 4. The stock price has increased by 188.06% over eight trading days, raising concerns about market sentiment and potential risks of rapid price declines [5] - Jiashitang announced a share transfer agreement with Beijing Tongrentang Group, resulting in a change of controlling shareholder to Tongrentang Group and the actual controller to the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of Beijing Municipal Government. The stock will resume trading on February 4 [6] - Juguang Technology's stock price has deviated significantly, with a cumulative increase of over 30% in three consecutive trading days. Despite the recent improvement in the optical communication industry, the revenue from this sector only accounted for about 7% of the company's total revenue as of Q3 2025 [6] Industry News - The People's Bank of China conducted a liquidity injection of 800 billion yuan through reverse repos on February 3, with various monetary policy tools showing net injections of 700 billion yuan for medium-term lending facilities and 1.744 trillion yuan for mortgage supplementary loans in January [2] - The Ministry of Commerce announced plans to optimize the implementation of appliance recycling and subsidy policies in 2026, with sales of six categories of home appliances and four categories of digital and smart products exceeding 15 million units and sales revenue nearing 59 billion yuan in January [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the need to promote the construction of future industry pilot zones and enhance technological supply in key areas such as 6G, quantum technology, and hydrogen energy [2] - CITIC Securities reported that the introduction of capacity electricity pricing policies will be crucial for the independent development of energy storage, while the nuclear power market may face price impacts due to the release of lower limits on thermal power prices [7]

每经记者｜杨建 每经编辑｜肖芮冬 ｜2026年2月4日 星期三｜ NO.1 2026年中央一号文件：实施农村电商高质量发展工程，推动电商平台下沉赋能 2月3日，中央一号文件《中共中央、国务院关于锚定农业农村现代化扎实推进乡村全面振兴的意见》发 布，意见指出，培育壮大县域富民产业。统筹发展科技农业，推动农村一二三产业深度融合。支持发展 绿色高效种养，推进农产品精深加工，培育农业精品品牌，促进全产业链开发。实施农村电商高质量发 展工程，推动电商平台下沉赋能，加强产地预冷、仓储保鲜、分拣加工等设施建设。规范农产品直播带 货。 2月3日，中国科学院物理研究所与北京大学的联合科研团队在国际上首次利用超导量子模块，实验观测 并人工调控量子多体系统走向混沌前的关键中间状态——"预热化"平台。这一发现为理解并控制复杂的 量子动力学过程打开了新窗口，相关成果日前在线发表于国际学术期刊《自然》。 NO.5 瑞银：存储2028年才有可能出现有意义的供给缓解 2月3日，瑞银分析师团队表示，短期可聚焦于两大堪称垄断的HDD霸主——即希捷与西部数据公司， 可把它们共同当作"存储景气度周期类型短期交易主题"，中长期把超额收益押在Memor ...

Group 1 - International precious metal prices have rebounded significantly, with spot gold rising over 7% at one point and currently up 6.44% at $4956.21 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures are up 6.68% at $4963.5 per ounce. Spot silver has increased by 8.03% to $85.46 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures are up 9.85% at $84.6 per ounce [2][4]. - The U.S. stock market saw all three major indices close lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.34%, Nasdaq down 1.43%, and S&P 500 down 0.83%. Notably, popular tech stocks experienced declines, with Broadcom dropping over 3% and Microsoft, Nvidia, and Meta each falling over 2% [4]. - The international oil prices have collectively risen, with WTI crude oil up 3.12% at $64.08 per barrel and Brent crude oil up 2.88% at $68.21 per barrel [4]. Group 2 - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council released the No. 1 Central Document for 2026, focusing on agricultural modernization and rural revitalization, emphasizing the need for technological innovation in agriculture and the promotion of breakthrough varieties [6]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China is pushing for breakthroughs in future industries such as 6G, quantum technology, and bio-manufacturing, highlighting the importance of strategic planning and technological supply [8]. - The People's Bank of China announced it will conduct a buyout reverse repurchase operation of 800 billion yuan to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, with a term of three months [9]. Group 3 - A couple in Zhejiang has been criminally charged for extortion related to a recent online incident involving contaminated vegetables, with the local police confirming the ongoing investigation [10]. - A significant number of reservations were made for the Lingyin Temple after it announced free entry, but 380,000 people failed to show up, prompting the temple to revise its reservation policies [11]. - Recent rumors regarding potential increases in VAT rates for the gaming and financial sectors have been dismissed by experts, who confirmed that no such changes are currently planned [12].

2 、国务院国资委党委召开专题党委会议强调，要大力发展战略性新兴产业和未来产业，立足现代化产业体系建设全局，着眼开辟增 长"第二曲线"， 一体统筹推进中央企业战略性新兴产业、未来产业发展和传统产业转型升级。 3 、 全国已有 30 个省份确定 2026 年 GDP 增长目标。 其中，多个经济大省将目标定在 5% 以上。上海市《政府工作报告》提出， 2026 年 GDP 目标增长 5% 左右。在集成电路、人工智能等领域加快实施一批重大产业项目，积极支持智能网联新能源汽车、航空航 • "十五五"首个中央一号文件正式发布 • 游戏、金融等行业增值税税率上调传闻不实 • SpaceX 收购 xAI ，史上最贵独角兽诞生 • 1 月 A 股新开户近 492 万户， 同比增长两倍多 • 周二全球股市走势分化， 亚太大幅收涨欧美陷入普跌 • 贵金属全线反弹， 白银涨超 10% ，黄金重返 4900 美元 / 盎司 • 科技转型重塑零售估值逻辑， 沃尔玛市值突破万亿美元 天等产业发展。 1 、 "十五五"首个中央一号文件公布。 《中共中央 国务院关于锚定农业农村现代化 扎实推进乡村全面振兴的意见》于 2 月 3 日正式 发布 ...

Economic Growth Targets - Shanghai's GDP growth target for this year is set at approximately 5% [2][3] - By 2025, Shanghai's GDP is projected to reach 5.67 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.4% [2] - The local general public budget revenue is expected to grow by 2% this year, reaching 850 billion yuan [2] Industrial Development Initiatives - Shanghai aims to accelerate the construction of a modern industrial system, focusing on future industries such as brain-computer interfaces, quantum computing, silicon photonics, and 6G [3] - The city plans to implement the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative, adding over 50 advanced intelligent factories this year [3] - There will be a strong emphasis on enhancing the service sector and modernizing the industrial chain [3] Financial Sector Enhancements - The report highlights the need to deepen financial system reforms and improve the construction of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [4] - Efforts will be made to enhance the competitiveness and influence of Shanghai as an international financial center, including the establishment of a cross-border payment system for the renminbi [4][5] - The focus will be on fostering long-term and patient capital, improving the integration of finance and industry, and supporting sectors such as technology innovation and green development [4][5]