新华财经北京12月18日电美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒（Christopher Waller）17日表示，尽管美国通胀持 续放缓，货币政策仍处于限制性区间，未来存在进一步降息空间，但"没有必要急于行动"。 沃勒被视为下一任美联储主席的潜在人选之一，并预计将于18日与特朗普会面。被问及此事时，沃勒回 应称："自己也是这么听说的。"但他明确强调将坚决捍卫美联储独立性。"我花了20年时间研究和捍卫 央行独立性及其重要性，在这方面我留下了大量研究和记录。" 美国劳工统计局即将发布因政府停摆而推迟的10月和11月就业数据。威廉姆斯在活动后对记者表示，预 计报告将显示"就业增长相对缓慢，且劳动力市场逐渐降温的迹象"。但他同时表示，现在讨论2026年1 月FOMC会议选项"还为时过早"。 （文章来源：新华财经） 威廉姆斯强调，今年的三次降息是基于"使通胀过高与就业疲软两大风险大致平衡"的考量。"我们无法 确切知道明年的贸易政策、通胀或经济会发生什么，但我认为我们为此做好了充分准备。" 沃勒在公开采访中指出，当前联邦基金利率水平较其估算的"中性利率"高出最多约100个基点。他预 计，通胀将在2026年前继续降温，并支持以"稳步 ...

近几个月来，美国招聘市场大幅降温。当地时间16日发布的官方报告显示，美国11月失业率升至四年高 点。美国劳工统计局数据显示，上月仅新增6.4万个就业岗位，而美联储认为实际数字可能还要再低6万 个。 据英国《金融时报》报道，当地时间12月17日，美联储理事沃勒在接受美国总统特朗普面试，以角逐下 一任美联储主席职位前夕表示，美国当前利率应再降低100个基点。 作为美联储内部最热门的主席候选人，沃勒警告称，当前美国就业增长目前"接近于零"，并表示明年 应"以适度节奏"降息，以支持就业市场。 当地时间17日，沃勒在耶鲁大学首席执行官峰会上表示："我们的就业增长已接近零，这绝非健康的劳 动力市场状态。我仍然认为，我们可能距离中性利率还有50至100个基点的差距。我们仍有调整余地， 可以下调利率。" 沃勒所提的"中性利率"指的是既不刺激也不抑制经济增长的利率水平。美联储今年已三次降息，当前利 率区间为3.5%至3.75%。但政策制定者在降息问题上存在分歧，他们就应优先应对通胀风险还是劳动力 市场风险展开争论。 沃勒的上述表态，正值他将于当日下午接受特朗普面试，竞聘美联储主席一职之际。现任美联储主席鲍 威尔将于明年5月结束 ...

市场普遍预期日本央行周五将把基准利率上调至三十年来的最高水平，显示该行对实现稳定的通胀目标 越来越有信心。 央行释放鹰派信号或有助于避免这种情况发生。但这些信号也可能重燃近期债券收益率的急剧升势，可 能会令正在编制下财年预算的高市早苗政府感到不安。 加息后，日本利率将达到1995年以来的最高水平。当时，日本处于泡沫经济破灭后的初期阶段，此后经 历了长达数十年的经济停滞。如今，日本经济所处形势截然不同，央行实际上已驶入一片未知水域，因 此植田和男很可能希望在规划未来政策路径时保持最大程度的灵活性。 隔夜指数掉期显示，交易员认为本次会议加息的概率约95%，比上月初的预期几乎翻倍。 政策声明通常在当地时间中午前后发布，随后植田和男将于15：30举行新闻发布会。 行长植田和男领导下的政策委员会在为期两天的会议结束时，料把隔夜拆借利率上调0.25个百分点至 0.75%。这将是1月以来首次加息，预计将获得全体委员一致通过。在最近的两次会议上已有两名委员 支持加息。 本月早些时候，植田和男异常明确地发出加息信号，此后的数据显示工资增长势头保持稳定，且美国关 税造成的冲击小于预期，令市场围绕加息的预期持续升温。这也是植田和男 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise its benchmark interest rate to the highest level in 30 years, reflecting increased confidence in achieving stable inflation targets. The market's focus has shifted from "whether to raise rates" to "how the future rate path will unfold" [1]. Group 1: Interest Rate Increase - The overnight lending rate is anticipated to be increased by 25 basis points to 0.75% during the upcoming two-day meeting [1]. - This will mark the first unanimous support for a rate hike since Governor Ueda took office, with all surveyed analysts predicting an increase [2]. - The decision is bolstered by strong wage growth and manageable external risks, leading to a consensus on the rate hike [2]. Group 2: Future Rate Path - Despite the expected increase, the Bank of Japan officials believe that even at 0.75%, the rates will still be below the so-called "neutral rate" [3]. - The neutral rate is estimated to be between 1% and 2.5%, indicating potential for further rate increases beyond the immediate hike [3]. - Japan's inflation rate has consistently met or exceeded the 2% target for three and a half years, suggesting that the monetary policy remains accommodative even after the rate hike [3]. Group 3: Balancing Risks - Governor Ueda faces the challenge of balancing hawkish and dovish signals, which is crucial for managing market expectations [4]. - If the communication regarding future rate outlook is too dovish, it may lead to a depreciation of the yen, while hawkish signals could result in rising bond yields [5]. - Political factors complicate the decision-making process, as Prime Minister Kishida is known for supporting stimulus policies, making the communication between the central bank and the government critical [5].

Group 1 - The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to lower the benchmark interest rate from 4.00% to 3.75% during its meeting on December 19, 2023, due to significant inflation slowdown and a weakening labor market [1][2] - The latest data shows that the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.2% year-on-year in November, down from 3.6% in October, marking the lowest level in eight months and below economists' expectations of 3.5% [1] - The core CPI also decreased to 3.2% year-on-year, with service prices rising by 4.4%, slightly below the Bank of England's previous forecast of 4.5% [1] Group 2 - The UK unemployment rate rose to 5.1%, the highest since early 2021, with youth unemployment nearing 550,000, the highest since 2015 [1] - Average wage growth in the private sector fell below 4% for the first time since 2020, indicating economic pressure [1] - The UK economy contracted for the second consecutive month in October, with service sector employment and new orders also declining, reflecting uncertainty in fiscal policy that has dampened investment willingness [1][2] Group 3 - The MPC is currently divided with four hawks and four doves, and the decision to cut rates is expected to pass with a narrow majority of 5 to 4 [2] - Analysts suggest that the current interest rate is close to the so-called neutral rate range of approximately 3.5% to 3.75%, indicating limited room for further easing [2] - Market derivatives have priced in a nearly 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut this week, with expectations of another cut by April 2026 [2]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller supports further interest rate cuts to return monetary policy to a neutral stance, emphasizing that there is no rush to lower rates immediately [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - Waller anticipates that U.S. inflation will continue to slow down by 2026, with current interest rates still 50 to 100 basis points above the "neutral rate" [1] - He suggests a gradual approach to lowering policy rates towards neutrality, stating that there is no need to hasten the process due to still elevated inflation levels [1] Group 2: Internal Fed Dynamics - Waller's comments come after the Federal Reserve's third consecutive rate cut, which saw dissent from three voting members for the first time since 2019, indicating significant internal divisions [1] - The Fed has made slight adjustments to its statement language, suggesting greater uncertainty regarding the timing of future rate cuts [1] Group 3: Potential Leadership Changes - Waller is considered a potential candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair and is expected to meet with President Trump [1] - Despite being a candidate, Waller is not currently the frontrunner, as Trump has indicated that former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh is the top candidate for the position [1]

Market Overview - US stock markets experienced a sharp decline, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 0.47% to 47,885.97 points, the S&P 500 falling 1.16% to 6,721.43 points, and the Nasdaq Composite decreasing 1.81% to 22,693.32 points [1] Oracle Corporation - Oracle's stock price fell nearly 6% following reports of stalled negotiations with Blue Owl Capital regarding a $10 billion data center project in Michigan, which was intended to support OpenAI [2] - Despite the negative reports, Oracle stated that the project is still progressing as planned, and Blue Owl is not involved in the equity partnership discussions [2] - Oracle has made significant investments in large-scale data centers to support AI systems, raising concerns among investors about potential overcapacity due to the influx of hundreds of billions of dollars into AI infrastructure [2] - Over the past three months, Oracle's stock has declined nearly 40%, erasing gains from securing major clients like OpenAI and signing multi-billion dollar computing contracts [2] Technology Sector Impact - Other technology stocks also faced declines, with Nvidia down over 3%, Broadcom down over 5%, TSMC down over 3%, and Google down nearly 3% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise its benchmark interest rate to the highest level in 30 years, reflecting increased confidence in achieving stable inflation targets [1][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Increase - The overnight borrowing rate is anticipated to be increased by 25 basis points to 0.75%, marking the first rate hike since January of this year [1][5]. - This decision is expected to receive unanimous support from the board, which would be the first time Governor Kazuo Ueda achieves full backing on a rate hike during his tenure [1][4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent economic data shows solid wage growth momentum in Japan, and the impact of U.S. tariffs on the Japanese economy is less severe than previously feared [4][5]. - The interest rate swap market indicates a 95% probability of a rate hike at the upcoming meeting, nearly doubling from early last month [5]. Group 3: Future Rate Path and Communication - Market focus is shifting to how the Bank of Japan will outline its future interest rate path, with some officials believing that even a rate of 1% would still be considered low [4][6]. - The central bank may emphasize that the financial environment remains accommodative, suggesting further rate hike potential even after the increase to 0.75% [5][6]. - Balancing hawkish and dovish signals is seen as a core challenge for Governor Ueda, especially in light of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's push for economic stimulus [6].

【导读】科技股跳水，AI交易遇到利空 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，今晚继续关注海外市场的表现。 美股又跳水了 12月17日晚间，美股三大指数直线跳水，道指一度涨超200点，纳指跌超1%，标普500指数跌约0.7%。 | 最高: 48387.33 | 今开:48128.05 | 52周最高: 48886.86 | 量比：1.20 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 最低: 47991.15 | 昨收: 48114.26 | 52周最低: 36611.78 | 振幅: 0.82% | | 成交量：1.38亿股 | | | | 甲骨文发言人迈克尔·埃格伯特在声明中说："我们的开发合作伙伴Related Digital在多家竞争方案中选出了最合适的股权合作方，而这一次 并不是蓝猫头鹰。其股权交易的最终谈判正按既定进度和计划推进。" 甲骨文近来大手笔投入超大型数据中心，以支撑人工智能系统运转。这一激进扩张让这家云计算巨头站上了"AI热潮是否正在形成泡沫"的争 论中心。近几个月来，投资者愈发担心，涌入AI基础设施的数千亿美元资金最终会导致产能过剩。 受此消息影响，甲骨文股价一度暴跌近6%。过去三 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Waller supports further interest rate cuts to bring rates back to neutral levels, indicating that decision-makers do not need to rush into cuts [1][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - Waller stated that the current monetary policy interest rate is up to 100 basis points above the neutral rate, which is the level where the Fed neither suppresses growth nor raises inflation [1][3]. - He emphasized that due to persistently high inflation, there is no need to hasten the rate cuts, suggesting a gradual approach to lowering the policy rate towards neutral [1][3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Leadership - Waller is considered a strong candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair and is expected to interview with President Donald Trump [1][3]. - He expressed his commitment to defending the independence of the Federal Reserve against any political pressure from the White House, citing his 20 years of research on the importance of central bank independence [2][4].